BC/HRF Fantasy Cap: Race 3 - The Alabama

At least I’m not alone.

That’s what I’m telling myself in the Fantasy Capping Contest for charity sponsored by Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup anyway. 

Ernie Munick still leads off the strength of his Whitney exacta.  Bobby Flay picked up a few more points and he sits alone in 2^nd with 100.  Chris Rossi and Team Rotondo are tied at 89 with JJ Hysell alone at 58 and three tied at 50.  Blissfully there are 11 other shut out, but I’m aiming to change that in the Alabama at Saratoga this afternoon.

It seems to really come down to two horses: Questioning and Grace Hall.  Grace Hall is probably the best in this field but should Questioning shake lose early, she’s going to be mighty tough to catch.  I wasn’t thrilled about going exacta box again, but I’m really convinced that these two are simply better than the rest, so that is how I go:

EXACTA BOX: Grace Hall and Questioning

It won’t pay a lot, but it should get me off the shnide!

If you’re in the contest…good luck!

BC/HRF Week 2: The Fourstardave Handicap

When the Whitney ended I was very concerned…I was shut out.  Ron the Greek’s rally came up just short and settled for second and win wager was gone.  I had zero points for the first weekend of the Hello Race Fans charity fantasy handicapping league on the Breeders’ Cup Fantasy ‘Capping site.  How embarrassing.

Turns out, not so much.  Only three folks managed to score points on the day with JJ Hysell posting a 29 for his show wager on Ron the Greek, Bobby Flay picking up 70 with his place wager on Ft Larned and the big smack down on the day, Ernie Munick popping the exacta for 382.50.  The rest of us ended up with squat.

It was only the first race of the series, but Munick smacked the group hard with his glove on this one.  Not the end of the world, but that’s a big number to put up on week one.  He has options.  He can continue to go hard for the big money or scale it back a bit with place or show wagers hoping to continue to add to the bankroll and build up that point total.  I have no such flexibility.

However, I refuse to go into panic mode yet.  The problem with the Fourstardave Handicap today at Saratoga is that I really like Wise Dan a lot and he’s fixin’ to be at low odds (sorry…was in rural Iowa most of last week) which doesn’t bode well as far as starting to close any gap.  I need something with perhaps a bit of a price but has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

I almost went with a straight win wager on Guys Reward.  Winner of three straight, lover of the distance, though a 13+ length loser to Wise Dan in the Ben Ali, I really like him over this turf course.  In his eight turf starts he’s been in the exacta in half and he promises to be a decent price here.  I didn’t think he was good enough to beat Wise Dan, but should be in a great position to stalk he and Get Stormy (and perhaps Upgrade if quick enough) should the pace get a little heated.

That got me thinking a bit more.  If I think that Wise Dan is the best but I think that Guys Reward could possibly make a race out of it late, maybe I should go with the exacta wager and perhaps cut the lead in half?  There is considerable risk that I won’t get there and will fall even further behind which will get me closer to panic mode but this is all about risk and reward.  It’s also all about whether or not Guys Reward can step up his game a notch.  If anyone can get him to step it up a bit, it’s Dale Romans.  Outfinishing Data Link won’t be easy, but it’s doable and if Get Stormy can’t hang up front, then I have a chance.  At a price.  And that’s all I can ask for. 

Fantasy Wager: $10 exacta box of Wise Dan and Guys Reward

BC/HRF Fantasy 'Cap Race I - The Whitney

The Fantasy ‘Capping challenge kicks off today with, in my opinion, a very tough race in the Whitney Invitational Handicap from Saratoga.  Several horses in this race would be favorites in their own right in just about any major stakes race in the country.  We have Rule, Caixa Eletronica, Ron the Greek, Flat Out, Hymn Book and Fort Larned plus a few others to round out a very difficult field to try and beat.

And you only get one shot in here:  straight win, place OR show bet or an exacta box.  I still have no idea what my contest strategy is going to be.  I was thinking that I would place bet for a few weeks and see if I could get some $5 payoffs and keep myself on the board and see how things are shaking out.  Then I thought, “no, can’t do that – I need to go big or go home”.  I’m not sure if that means win or the exacta box wager yet.  However I’m going to have to do something!

There is plenty of speed in the Whitney with Rule, Caixa Eletronica, Trickmeister and Fort Larned.  While each of these horses could possibly be expected to carry their speed the entire mile and an eighth on their own, it’s going to be very tough to do so against each other.  The closers in this group, Hymn Book, Flat Out and the morning line favorite, Ron the Greek, all look like the race should set up for them.  Then you throw in Hunter’s Bay, riding a 3 race winning streak on poly trying to win his first on dirt since July 2010 along with Endorsement’s baffling trip in the Suburban makes it pretty complicated to try and figure out the complexion of the race.

Depending upon when you caught me over the past few days, I would move from Ron the Greek to Hymn Book to Flat Out.  Yeah, I’ve disqualified the speedsters and decided against trying Hunter’s Bay on dirt.  I made a year out of discounting Ron the Greek so far and finally caved in to him last out in the Stephen Foster and cashed a lovely win wager.  He won’t be near that price today, but if he’s close to that morning line of 3-1, I’ll take it.  A Bill Mott exacta isn’t far-fetched, but this Greek is going to go with Ron in the Whitney.

Summer Racing Season is Underway

I've been absent for a bit longer than I would have liked but I wanted to pass along the latest Hello Race Fans Index. This week's index is a compilation of panelists' favorite summer racetracks. The usual suspects are in there - Del Mar, Saratoga and Monmouth, but there are also some surprises like Canterbury Park (wonder which panelist listed THAT one?), Delaware Park and even Timonium, MD!

While you're over there, take some time to go over the site. In addition to the index feature, there are areas on handicapping, racing rivalries, book reviews and more. A great site that gives you the all-around feel for the Sport of Kings.

Enjoy!

Up and Down, Up and Down

Our lead wasn't as strong as I would have liked it to be. Bernell checked out the young filly he called me about this past weekend and she was nothing special. I didn't expect her to be, really, for the price we were quoted for her but here is how I was hoping the conversation would go:

"Teddy, she looks pretty good. Not as developed as she should be, but that's something I can work on. I think she has a good future with a little luck and work."

"Fantastic!" I would say. "We're all in this together, let's go!"

Not so much.

She was a decent looking individual, but nothing special. The asking price appears to have been the top end of what she was worth and these days there is no sense in that. So we get back on the roller coaster and see where it takes us.

I Am Woman Back at Saratoga Raceway

Filly I Am Woman is back at Saratoga tonight. She's staying at the same level and that worries me a bit. Two races back was nice, but last out was not so great. I was hoping for a step up in improvement from one race to the next, but that didn't happen. I was hopping for a drop in class, but that didn't happen. The possible upside is that there seems to be softer competition in Saratoga than at Monticello. Another upside is that she is moving inside a few notches from the eight hole, so that works out as well. I hesitate to break down the race as I end up getting my hopes up, so we'll just watch the 4th at Saratoga tomorrow and see what happens!

ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption on Blog Talk Radio

Please click the Blog Talk Radio stream to the left to hear my conversation with Felice Busto, Vice President of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption on my Blog Talk Radio show Wednesday night. She had great insight into thoroughbred adoption and the issues that face our retired racers. Thanks to Felice for being my guest and doing fabulous and necessary work.

I Am Woman at Monticello; Fizzy 4th for New Connections

I Am Woman is back to Monticello from Saratoga in what normally would be considered a good spot for her after that last outing. If you recall she was trapped in the back of the field in her last and was stuck three wide through almost the entire last quarter while picking up horses and finishing a strong fourth. All we wanted was to get a race back and move inside. Well, it took a few weeks and we didn't get moved inside at all - we drew the 8 hole again!

The race will be the 12th of the day and the conditions are non-winners of 2 races, but no more than 4 for fillies and mares. Like I mentioned, she drew the outside. Let's take a look at on her inside:

1 - No Limit Lady (Poynton): Shifting inside for the first time in a long time, she had a nice run two back, but her last was uninspiring.

2 - JL Lucy (Aldrich, Jr.): Been a while since she's been competitive but a return to form could bring her a piece.

3 - PH Quick Chick (Marohn, Jr.): First trip over the strip after coming in from Yonkers was flat. Should be some improvement this week. ML favorite.

4 - Bryn-Zion's Girl (Marohn, Sr.): Has had a tough last few months. Not a real chance in here.

5 - Fun Four Everyone (Micallef): Tough one last out, but has been right in there every week. Could be the one to beat.

6 - Celeriter (Benedetto): Best puts her right in this group.

7 - Biding Her Time (Parker, Jr.): Tends to run hot and cold. Hot here and she's a winner.

8 - I AM WOMAN (Merton)

Since the end of August, our gal has performed admirably. She destroyed her field in her qualifier and paced a solid fourth last out. I'm not asking for the rail, but would the four hole have been too much to ask? I don't think she can necessarily beat this group from the outside. She'll need some real help from the racing Gods. If she can get into a good position early so she doesn't get shuffled back, we could be in a really nice spot. But that is going to be tough to do on a half mile track out of the eight spot. In reality, I'm hoping for a win, but really expecting another strong effort and top four finish.

FIZZY FOURTH FOR NEW CONNECTIONS

Fizzy's race was taken off the turf and he raced over a sloppy main track finishing fourth of the six remaining horses in the race. The chart says he "never menaced" and that was true watching the race. He just ran around the track. This really didn't surprise me as Fizzy has always hated really sloppy tracks. Wet fast and he's OK, a real mess and that's another story. I would have asked Bernell to scratch out of the race if he were still ours because I would have seen this as a waste of a race considering his dislike for this type of surface. In the end, I just hope that he came back well.

Now What?

The Triple Crown season is over and those of us that are racing fans are looking forward to a great summer of racing at fabled venues like Del Mar and Saratoga. Stakes races every day, blue-blooded thoroughbreds along with their equally blue-blooded owners will gather at the Shore or the Spa and racing suddenly is transformed back to its heyday!


The "general public" has no idea it exists at all.


For the most part, the sports going public has seen the Triple Crown series and assumes that racing crawls back into it's hole not to come out again until the World Thoroughbred Championships otherwise known as the Breeder's Cup. What happens in between is irrelevant to these people. We can all bask in what were pretty darn good ratings for the Derby and Preakness and, for a non-Triple Crown deciding race, the Belmont as well, but where racing really needs to focus on is now.


I don't mind if winter racing isn't highlighted on TV. The Inner Dirt track winter season at Aqueduct doesn't really cry out "Must See TV!!". I understand that. Del Mar - the House that Bing Built. Saratoga - the Graveyard of Favorites. The Travers, Del Mar Derby, Hopeful, Del Mar Futurity and on and on go the march of graded stakes at both legendary racetracks. These are great events that are often contested by horses that competed so gamely in the Spring.

Part of the challenge for racing is keeping fans interested through the summer and building to a nice crescendo at the Breeder's Cup. The solid ratings of this year's Triple Crown is a start. But only a start. How we build on that start is the key to the future viability of live racing in the U.S.