Breeders' Cup - Day 2

I whiffed on Day 1.  I got saddled with the donut.  Grabbed a bagel.  Name the cliché and I got it.  Zilch.  Bupkiss. In shooting for some value, I did manage to pick the 1st loser twice (Tapiture and Don't Tell Sophia) but that just don't get 'er done.

Both of my 2nd place horses made solid efforts.  I actually thought Tapiture was going to run Goldencents down but the Doug O'Neill Leandro Moro trainee just spun his wheels deep in the lane and Goldencents was simply not going to let him by.  It was a very impressive performance on the front end.  Untapable was also very impressive.  I think she is an absolutely remarkable filly.  At 7/5, she probably was a bargain.

Thanks to Maryjean whomping her field at Hawthorne for the Canterbury Racing Club, the day was not a total loss for me.  Heather continued her remarkable knack for tri and supers, hitting 2 tris and a super on the 4 Breeders' Cup races and doubling her stake heading into day 2. 

Here are my picks on Day 2 for Hello Race Fans.

Juvenile Fillies: Angela Renee.  There should be enough speed to run at here and Angela Renee ran nearly the perfect race last out to take the Grade 1 Chandelier at Belmont.  She appears to have improved going a bit longer and though I fear Conquest Eclipse running her down late or Cristina's Journey getting away with no pressure, I'm going to take Angela Renee, albeit tepidly.  Morning Line: 3-1.

Filly and Mare Turf: Just the Judge.  I love Stephanie's Kitten, I'll admit that up front.  She would have been another educated hunch play (shares a name with my sister...Stephanie, not Kitten) but this Euro appears to be in fine fettle coming into the race and her two American starts have been very strong, especially the prep at Woodbine in the Grade 1 EP Taylor. Morning Line: 5-1

Filly and Mare Sprint: Judy the Beauty.  The center of this field, Judy the Beauty, Leigh Court and Artemis Agrotera, all intrigue me. I think Judy gets the right trip and I'm hoping we can get a little more generous price than her morning line: 5/2

Turf Sprint: Silentio.  I admittedly was influenced by a conversation I heard on Steve Byk's radio show.  The topic was the downhill turf course and how pure sprinters can frequently give up the lead to closing types that are cutting back in distance and can pay a generous price.  If you look at Home Run Kitten, that race fits the profile perfectly.  The one in this race fitting that pattern is Silentio.  While Reneesgotzip appears to be the heir apparent to Mizdirection, I'm going with Silentio.  Morning Line: 8-1

Juvenile: Calculator.  I know he's still a maiden and that I hate maidens running in stakes races but hear me out.  American Pharoah was the lock of the weekend.  Who was clearly 2nd best in American Pharoah's last two races?  Calculator.  Does this necessarily make him the 2nd best 2YO in training?  Of course not, but I think he deserves a LOT more respect than 15-1.  His running style should be good for this race and with One Lucky Dane, Souper Colossal (who I also like quite a bit), Blue Dancer and perhaps even Daredevil wanting the front all the way around, Trujillo may be able to give him the perfect trip and give us a boxcar payoff.  Morning Line: 15-1

Calculator scratches with a sore foot so I move to Upstart.  Still a lot of speed in the race and now one less closer for him to get past.  Morning Line: 8-1

Turf: Main Sequence.  This one was tough for me.  I'm not great when it comes to analyzing the Euros.  I had Heather's help in getting to Just the Judge and last year I had a nice paying exacta with Magician and The Fugue with the help of our friend, Brit Peter Clancy.  This one came down to Telescope and Main Sequence for me.  I ended up on Main Sequence because although his last 3 wins were VERY narrow - collectively less than 1/2 a length - they were wins and that's the mark of a gutty horse.  Telescope's Racing Post Ratings are considerably higher than Main Sequence but the choice here has run this year in America while Telescope is coming in off a layoff with no works.  Morning Line: 6-1

Sprint: Rich Tapestry.  I had to swallow hard to pick a Euro against the home town team but after Goldencents' win yesterday, that nose victory over the Dirt Mile champion in his first out in the US looks all the more impressive.  There is more than enough speed to run at and jockey and trainer have settled into Santa Anita nicely.  Look for this one to be the first Hong Kong based horse to win a BC race.  Morning Line: 5-1

Mile: Tom's Tribute.  Now THIS is a race where I should be going with a Euro, yet I am not.  They may very well jump up and bite me in the butt but I'll take the local boy coming off two wins at Del Mar with Mike Smith aboard.  He should get a nice trip and be running at the end.  The question is going to be if he is good enough to be in front at the end.  Morning Line: 15-1

Classic: Shared Belief. I know, there is no value in here.  I know.  In the battle of the Romies v the Chromies, I don't think there is any battle at all.  I don't see California Chrome in the same league at Shared Belief.  Quite frankly I don't know if anyone is.  I looked hard to try an come up with scenarios to beat him: Bayern duplicating his Penn Derby run; Tonalist reliving the Jockey Club Gold Cup; Toast of New York living up to his buzz (though he lost to Shared Belief last out...go figure).  While I see each scenario as possible - Toast of New York less so - and if I really was going to try and beat Shared Belief I'd try and logically do it with Tonalist, I think this 3-year old is just better than his peers and the older horses he's up against.  If you wanted try and beat him at a good price, I would suggest finding one of the older horses that is to your liking.  It's tough for a 3-year old to beat older, though a bit easier as the season gets later, and one of the old war horses jumping up and teaching a kid a lesson at 15-1 or so is a possibility as well.  I'm just not going to bet on it.  Morning Line: 9-5

Breeders Cup - Day 1

Unfortunately this year heading to California was not in the cards.  However Maryjean, our gal from the Canterbury Racing Club, is heading to post later today at Hawthorn Race Course and as luck would have it, Heather has the time off and I have to be in Wisconsin and Iowa for business bookending the weekend, so at Hawthorne we shall be. That preview can be seen over at the Canterbury Racing Club page.  Here we'll focus on Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup.

If you don't know, Hello Race Fans is a site dedicated to racing fans education, a great way to bring fledgling fans deeper into the game. Even if you're not a novice they have great stakes previews, a "things to know" feature for key races that are must reads, and general overviews of things we may have forgotten over the years that can help sharpen up our handicapping. 

Several times a year Hello Race Fans invites a few experts to share their picks on key races.  For whatever reason, I am fortunate enough to be one of them.  Each year around the Breeders' Cup I try to share my reasoning being my selections and then be publically humiliated later!  Well, not always, which is what keeps me coming back.

My goal is to try and provide some value and not just pick the chalk.  The name of the game is making money and that's what I'm going to try and do!  So without further ado, my picks for Day 1:

Juvenile Turf - Startup Nation.  This colt's first two races were stellar.  He kind of stumbled a bit in his last, the Grade 3 Pilgrim, and threw in a real clunker.  Rosario makes the trip to ride, trainer Chad Brown seems to be around the winners' circle in every big race this year and I'm willing to draw a line through his last and also believe that there is going to be enough speed to run at to start us off right.  Morning line: 12-1

Dirt Mile - Tapiture. I wanted to type in Goldencents very badly.  That 6-5 morning line was less than appealing however and I'm not convinced that he's a mortal lock - though he's probably pretty close.  My guess is that he's going to go off at even money or less and that leaves some juicy payouts on the table.  I know I'm not exactly going longshot with Tapiture but at 6-1 there is value there and his off the pace style may suit this race given that there is plenty of speed in here.  Goldencents may seize the lead at the top of the lane, but I'm betting on Tapiture to pass him by in the final strides.

Juvenile Fillies Turf - Sunset Glow. A 2nd place finish at Ascot and then a couple of graded stakes wins upon her return home makes me feel pretty good about her.  I know we all look at the Euros in BC turf races but this gal has proven she can run with them.  She's fast, can win up front and can rate and since her maiden breaking effort, Victor Espinoza has been with her every step of the way. Morning line: 7/2.

Distaff - Don't Tell Sophia. I went round and round with this one.  Beholder would have been my choice if she stayed in, not only because she's amazing but because I have a real soft spot for her.  I would have thrown value out the window to see her win.  But she's out and I move on, but not to either Untapable (who I also think is tremendous) or Close Hatches, but to Don't Tell Sophia.  Sophia can run with these types, may be able to sweep by if their rivalry wears them both down, and she shares a name with my mom.  Analysis teamed with a hunch - the handicapping formula of the ages!  Morning line: 5-1

Good luck everyone!

Saturday's Breeders' Cup Thoughts

The Great Race Place

Some random thoughts regarding Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup:

- No matter how good the television coverage may be, nothing beats being at the races;

- Speed held.  You didn't HAVE to be on the lead, but you needed to be close to have a chance.  "Break and gun" was the strategy of the day - you were NOT coming from far off the pace today;

- Gorgeous southern California beats Minnesota winter...at least for a few days.  The traffic out here would drive me insane outside of a week;

- Beholder is the real deal - she was magnificent;

- Every horse looks like a million bucks.

- Santa Anita is indeed one of the prettiest places in America to watch a race.

- The crowd was decent but certainly manageable.  I never had to wait more than one or two people deep in a line to make a wager.  We'll see what today brings, but day 1 was right on the money.

- I was close but no cigar WAY to often.  Regrouped after the races and back at it Saturday.

And on to Saturday's picks:

JUVENILE FILLIES

It really looks like on paper that Artemis Agrotera is just better than the rest.  I would tend to agree but in looking for some value, I really like Untapable.  She has nondescript works which makes me a bit nervous, but she has stalking speed, back to back wins, was unsettled early in her last and still managed to win the Grade 2 Pocahontas at this distance.  A win at this distance is big for a baby, in my opinion.

If Rosie can have her settled early she could be in line for a big final run at the favorite coming for home.

Sentimental choice is Canterbury maiden breaker Designer Legs...though I won't use her on my ticket.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Dank is the choice for most in here and it's certainly easy to see why.  She came over from a solid campaign in Europe and dusted the Beverly D field at Arlington impressively.

Marketing Mix has been one of my favorite mares but I think she's outclassed in here, which makes me a bit sad.

I'm going with what I perceive to be as the only real speed in the race, Laughing.  Lezcano has ridden her enough to know how to ration that speed and this race could set up very nicely for her, especially breaking from the center.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

How do you not love Groupie Doll?  She has been magnificent and has had a wonderful career but her 2013 has not been near as dominant as her 2012 campaign and she's certainly beatable here.

One also has to love the way Dance to Bristol is in every race.  You leave this filly out of your exotics at your own peril - 13 of 14 races in the exacta.  Remarkable consistency.

My choice in this one is, however, Sweet Lulu.  Sweet Lulu, a 3-year old, has started her career by beating up on older.  When she stepped way up into graded stakes company she stuck with her own age and took the Grade 1 Test at the Spa.  Next out, going two turns, she hung tough with Distaff contender Close Hatches before the mile and a sixteenth became just too tough.  Dropping back into a sprint she should be tough and with a morning line of 8-1, should have some value as well.

TURF SPRINT

Caracorado, a former claimer, is a great story and Jim Rome's Mizdirection has been a remarkable lady who beat the boys here last year, but I'm looking at Chips All In in the turf sprint.  The colt won over the downhill turf course in the Grade 3 Eddie D and should be able to have the location behind the leaders to get first run.  Between Mizdirection, Rennesgotzip and Tightend Touchdown, there should be plenty of early speed to run at.

JUVENILE

There are plenty of nice babies in here but I'm looking at Mike Smith to extend on his Breeders' Cup record riding victories with Tap It Rich.  The ridgeling had a terrible start and was wide throughout in his debut and was still able to win by a comfortable 4 1/4 lengths earning a stellar 89 Beyer Speed Figure.  He may not have the experience of the others in big races, and that may show, but if he's calm and relaxed, he could light this field up.

TURF

I love Point of Entry.  I love everything that Shug has been able to do with him,  This horse was on the bench from last year's BC Turf until February when he came back and beat Animal Kingdom in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  Then he waited until June to run in the Grade 1 Manhattan, where he handled Optimizer.  Now he's pointed to the BC Turf.  This is his year to go 3 for 3 and take home a cool million for the effort.

SPRINT

Sprints are always hard to figure for me with horses of this caliber.  It's hard to come off the pace and the good ones can hold their speed for a long way.  I'm not thinking that any of the early speedsters (Private Zone, Sum of the Parts, Trinniberg) are going to just run away with this one so maybe a solid pace stalker could jump up and get it.  That's why I'm going with Justin Phillip.  He had some trouble in his last and still just missed catching Private Zone in the Grade 1 Vosburgh and I'm hopeful that Private Zone will have a bit more pressure early to weaken him up for the other Zayat runner.  He best be close, though...

MILE & CLASSIC

Now I get chalky.  I really think that the two best horses in training right now are Wise Dan and Game on Dude.  In the Mile, while Wise Dan was upset last out by Silver Max, I think that Obviously and Bright Thought will put enough pressure on him early to soften him up for ol' Dano.

Game on Dude is just better this year. Now you can certainly pile on and say that he spent virtually all year in California, but when he did go east in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, he held off Clubhouse Ride and Ron the Greek to notch another win.  Last year's beaten favoritism probably still stings for Baffert and Smith and they'll be sure he is razor sharp for this.  He could be softened up early by some of the other speed in here, but I think he's just THAT much better this year.

Good luck, enjoy the day and follow me on Twitter (@tlgrevelis) for some updates live from the 30th anniversary Breeders' Cup from Santa Anita.

Breeders' Cup Friday

Things tend to get a little away from you when you're not at home and the Breeders' Cup (Tickets STILL available, click the box upper left of the screen) is no exception!  Ideally my thoughts on Friday would have been up a day or so ago, but that simply wasn't going to happen.  However, it IS before post time and you can also see my picks (and those from other "experts" who are bound to be more correct than I!) over at Hello Race Fans.  Here is my reasoning behind Friday's selections:

MARATHON

This is always a fun race to watch.  We get so few races at a mile and a half or better in the US that to watch one is a treat. Not many in here have gone this far though most look like they have the pedigree to do so. I went for a lot of value in this one - at least in theory.

Commander can get the early lead but will probably be pressed early on by the likes of the morning line favorite, Ever Rider - making his first US start after running exclusively in South America.  London Bridge and Blueskiesandrainbows will probably want to be close early as well.

My choice is Worldly.  Yes, he hasn't won in forever and is very lightly raced the last few years, but his pattern this year is a nice one to me - when looking at a mile and 3/4.  Lost by 8 to probably Golden Ticket's best race of the season and then just missed at Remington coming hard at the end.  Last out was defeated by Fort Larned, which is no shame and all the while (well, maybe not in his last) you get the feeling that he may want even more ground than the 1 1/8, 1 1/4 that he's been getting.

Winning this race would be a huge upset, but I like the way the race sets up and I think he'll be more than the 6-1 morning line, making him worth a shot.

JUVENILE TURF

Not exactly going out on a limb here.  Bobby's Kitten earned his trade in his first race and came back to break his maiden easily in his second.  He then stepped right up to a Grade 3 in the Pilgrim and won that with ease.  Aidan O'Brien's Giovanni Boldini is going to be a tough.  With the babies you never know who is going to jump up, but this looks like the exacta to me.

DIRT MILE

Always a fun race and my favorite 3-year old this year, Verrazano, comes in as the morning line favorite.  I'm not picking him, but if he wins in spectacular fashion, I will rip up my ticket and give him an ovation, I really think he's spectacular.  However, I'm riding the hot hand in this one and that is Pants on Fire.  Really professional wins in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup and the Grade 3 Ack Ack and then a brief breather while working tremendously before shipping west.

Goldencents is at home and Alpha is cutting back to a distance where he may be more comfortable and effective.  A very competitive race but I'm looking at Pants on Fire to pick up the pieces down the land to win it.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

I went way outside here and could end up in big trouble, but My Conquestadory is the pick.  I love the way she was able to pick her way through traffic at Keeneland last out, something you don't just see from babies too often.  The odds are good that she'll have to do it again here in order to win.  The French Vorda is the popular pick and another French filly, Testa Rossi, is on a very nice roll.  Sky Painter could be an excellent value at 15-1 morning line after a very strong finish behind Testa Rossi in the Grade 3 Ms Grillo.

This looks to be a nice race to box a few and nail a tri or super.

DISTAFF

Could be the greatest collection of filly and mare talent ever.  I don't think that Street Girl can win.  I can absolutely make a case for the other five.  I'm going with Princess of Sylmar because she's on a roll and has beaten a couple in here in the process, including the older mare Royal Delta.  I would love to see Beholder win it (she's my distaff Verrazano, I just love her) but I think her speed mixing it up with Royal Delta and possibly Close Hatches could set things up very nicely for the streaking Princess.

Best of luck everybody.  I'll be tweeting some thoughts and pictures from Day 1 at Santa Anita throughout the weekend and you can catch those on Twitter by following me @tlgrevelis.

Breeders' Cup or Bust

You'll notice a new banner ad to the top and left of this page.  I'm proud to welcome the Breeders' Cup as an advertiser for the next month or so as we all countdown to the Cup!

This will be my first year actually attending the Breeders' Cup.  In years past I enjoyed the national broadcast or the company of friends in the press box at Canterbury Park.  It was admittedly a little odd watching the biggest day in racing from a racetrack that was mothballed for the winter, but we had a blast and last year I was able to close hard with the Classic exacta to earn $2500 for the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.

I am hoping to blog my thoughts from Santa Anita as well as engage in much of the Twitter discussion going on around the racing.  Additionally I am looking forward to catching up in person with many who have so long only been internet colleagues and friends.

My disastrous Super Saturday picks notwithstanding, I am looking forward to attending the biggest day in racing and providing a bit of "home style" coverage of the event from the perspective of a small owner and huge fan.

If you haven't purchased a ticket yet, click on the above and browse for tickets or even official Breeders' Cup merchandise.  It's always good to support organizations that support local small businesses like this one!

See you at Santa Anita!

Breeders' Cup Wrap and A Victory for Retired Racehorses

The Breeders’ Cup is a wrap for this year and I had one horrid weekend of handicapping but a VERY silver lining at the end of it all.

First the ugly: The stat line for the weekend was 15 races, 2 wins, 6 seconds and 3 thirds.  I was a hanger.  I couldn’t quite get there and close the deal.  You move half of those seconds into the win column and it’s a helluva weekend.  Instead it was a crapload of frustration.  AND, my two winners were the most obvious of the weekend: Groupie Doll and Shanghai Bobby.

The Horse of the Year debate will now rage, which should be fun.  Little Mike, Wise Dan, Groupie Doll, Royal Delta all will be a part of the conversation.  It is hard to argue, though, with Wise Dan’s 2012, but that’s an argument for another post.

The silver lining?  Well, the REAL winner this weekend was the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.  Thanks to Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup $2500 is going to be donated to them from the HRF/BC Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge.  

Many celebrities, turf writers and, of course, me, made fantasy wagers for 13 weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.  The wagers were either: $20 to win, place or show, or a $10 exacta box.  Ernie Munick jumped out to an early lead hitting the exacta on the very first race of the contest, the Whitney.  I finally hit the board in Week 4 in the Travers when I picked Alpha to place (41 points).  You may recall that was the dead heat race in which Alpha paid more to place than to win! Two weeks later I hit the board again (Super Derby) with Bourbon Courage for 50 points.  And I sat at 91 for the remainder of the season.  I did change a pick – or I thought I did – in one of the final weekends from a loser to a winner, but did not confirm the change.  I can’t even recall which race it was (PTSD, I think) and I ended up going from thinking I was in the top 5 to being mired in 11^th heading into Breeders’ Cup weekend when all wins would be doubled.

In the interim, Ernie had hit more and was heading into the weekend still atop the leaderboard with 426.50 points, Team Rotondo was right on his heels with 369 with a nice series of wins.  The top 5 were rounded out by Bobby Flay (251), Chris Rossi (223) and Pete Denk (201).  I had good company with me in the middle of the standings, surrounded as I was between Mike Penna (98) and Melissa Nolan (76).

I knew I had to go exactas for the two BC Classics.  I was too far behind to do anything else.  My strategy in the Ladies Classic was go with who I thought was best and combine her with a higher odds horse that may complete a nicely priced exacta.  Royal Delta was the choice but I needed a longer shot to combine her with and with everyone else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I went with her.

As I noted in my recap, “Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.”  I couldn’t fault the ride, she was perfectly positioned.  She just was not good enough and I was WAY behind the eight ball heading into the final race of the contest.  Upside? No one cashed on the Ladies Classic so the margins remained the same.

It all came down to the Classic.  I needed a big score and it needed to be the exacta play.  I wasn’t getting there otherwise.   

The Classic featured the deepest pool of contenders that I can remember which was good and bad.  For the contest it was pretty damn good because with the money being spread out there was a chance I could nail a boxcars payoff and not just stab at a 25-1 shot.  The bad is that it was going to be really tough to narrow it down.  I had to just throw out Game On Dude – no combination with him was going to get me there.  I threw out horses that I didn’t think really had a chance: Pool Play, Handsome Mike, Brilliant Speed and Nonios and then sized up the remainder.  I narrowed it down to three: Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek.  Fort Larned was in – I really liked his consistency and after racing every 5 weeks or so, he went nearly eight between the Whitney and the Gold Cup.  With solid works after the Gold Cup and his usual 5 week spread, I really liked him a lot.

The remaining two, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek seemed relatively even to me.  Ron’s Gold Cup was awful, but he had a really solid campaign up until that point.  One bad race perhaps?  MMM had been off since September 1 and that would have worried me except that he is a horse that has been running relatively fresh all year and  doing it very, very well.  The Greek or 3M – both had some appeal to me from a hunch perspective (for the uninformed: I’m Greek and I live in Minnesota, home to 3M – the company, not the horse).  Ultimately MMM’s ability to run well fresh and Minnesota won the day.

Heading into the far turn I wanted the race to stop right there.  Fort Larned had spurted to a 4 length lead and MMM was starting to clear some daylight behind him in the chase.  The way speed had been holding on the dirt all day I knew if I could get into the stretch one, two, it could be all over but the shouting – my shouting.  LOUDLY.  Up in the Canterbury press box where I watched day 2 unfold.  By the team the field straightened out it was only a question of which horse would win.  There was only about a $6 difference in the exacta payouts so it didn’t really matter but Fort Larned on top paid a bit more.

All that was left was the payoffs and who else wagered.  The payout was a whopping 1254 points (remember, BC races counted double!).  The only other scorer in the race was Chris Rossi who earned 132 points with MMM to place.  That was it…I WON!  Or rather, the MNRRP won.

The MNRRP is, in their words, “a volunteer based, 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to the rehabilitation, placement, and promotion of retired racehorses.”  In only 3-years of existence, the MNRRP has helped retire over 100 racehorses that have grace Minnesota racetracks.  More could have been helped but horses need to be fed, housed, and cared for and all of this takes money – and space.  I hope that this $2500 contribution, along with Tabby Lane’s annual contribution of 1% of her earnings (this year $222) will help the efforts to retire more of Minnesota’s race horses with pride and dignity and get them started on second careers.  I also hope that this awareness causes you to help out – with the MNRRP or you own local race horse retirement group.  The demand for their services outstrips the supply.  Maybe you don’t have the cash, but own a farm where you can foster a few off track racehorses until they can be adopted; or donate feed; hay; vet services.  Anything can help.  If you’re a part of this game, you need to give back and I hope this helps.

Many thanks to Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup for this opportunity and, of course, to the folks at the MNRRP - and all horse retirement groups and individuals - for all that you do for our equine partners.

Breeders' Cup - Day 2

Day One was a mitigated disaster: yeah there wasn’t a single win on the card for me but my top choices did finish 2^nd three times and 3^rd twice over the course of the six races.  If I was a show better this would be outstanding; as a win/place better…not so great, but mitigated rather than unmitigated. The biggest disappointment on the day for me was the Ladies Classic where I had longshot Include Me Out in the exacta with winner Royal Delta.  Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.  It was a microcosm of a tough day.

BUT…there is Day 2.  As a horseplayer we always live to fight another day and “another day” is today.

Juvenile Turf

Several really nice graded stakes winners in this field including Noble Tune (Gr 3 Pilgrim), I’m Boundtoscore (Gr 2 Summer), Balance the Books (Gr 3 Bourbon) and Joha (Gr 1 Breeders’ Futurity).  You can even through in European Group 3 Solario Stakes winner Fantastic Moon and Group 3 Acomb Stakes winner Dundonnell into that group.  There are also a variety of running styles in here but only one of the really classy horses that I would consider good early speed and that’s Joha.  He just missed wiring the field in the Grade 2 With Anticipation before his gate to wire score in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. 

My Choice: Joha

Filly & Mare Sprint

Groupie Doll.  Moving on…

Dirt Mile

This turned out to be quite the fun little race.  Fan favorite Shackleford will lead the field to the post after a couple of disappointing efforts post Met Mile triumph.  Emcee, just on his outside has only failed to record a triple digit Beyer number in only two of his career starts.  Mystic Lake Derby runner up Delegation will try dirt for the first time off back-to-back wins over the artificial surface at Woodbine and Jersey Town comes in after surprising just about everyone (including Shakleford) in the Grade 1 Kelso with ease.  Shackleford and Emcee both like being on or near the led early and, unfortunately for them, so do Fed Biz, Delegation and perhaps even Second City.  All that speed could set things up for the improving Jersey Town to surprise them again.  I don’t think that Jersey Town is the best horse in the race, but ask The Fugue if the best horse always wins…

My Choice: Jersey Town

Turf Sprint

Not a fan of this race, though it does appear to be a bit wide open and could present a decent wagering opportunity if you really have a strong feeling.  This is one race I do not have an overly strong feeling about, but may jump on Unbridled’s Note if the price is right.  Steve Asmussen has Great Mills in to oush along the pacesetters like California Flag (if I DON’T pick him, he wins – so be forewarned) and Renneesgotzip.  Normally you could throw Bridgetown into that mix but in the Grade 3 Woodford he sat off the pace a bit and came charging late to blow past Great Mills to win that race.  The hope here is that Bridgetown, second off a layoff, feels a bit more keen than last time and tries to take to the lead.  Unbridled’s Note won’t be too far behind and will pick up the pieces.

My Choice: Unbridled’s Note

Juvenile

The Juvy looks like it comes down to undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee Shanghai Bobby and Bob Baffert trained Power Broker who appears to have figured out this racing thing in the Grade 1 Front Runner.  Power Broker is going to want to sit off an early pace while Shanghai Bobby will want to stay close to, if not on, the early lead.  Power Broker’s connections have Title Contender breaking from the one hole and, while certainly not out of his depth in here, will certainly ensure a solid early pace to run at.  Will Bobby take the bait and go or be able to sit off of Title Contender’s flank until it’s time to run?  While Shanghai Bobby is stretching out, the distance should not be an issue while Power Broker has a win at this distance AND over this course.  This one is a toss up: do you prefer the local angle or the undefeated colt that has yet to throw in a clunker?

My Choice: Shanghai Bobby (but narrowly)

Turf

A nice mixed contingent in the turf with some very nice Euros squaring off against an American entry that is seemingly getting stronger with every start.  A nice colt prior to trying the turf, Point of Entry has turned into a monster once he was introduced to the sod by trainer Shug McGaughey.  Carrying the fabled colors of the Phipps stable, Point of Entry is on quite a roll, winning his last five races: four graded stakes, the last three of which were grade ones.  His Beyer numbers have increased with every race during that streak and he’s come from far back and from just off the pace to tally the wins.  Prior to shipping he threw two bullet works and is as sharp as can be heading into the biggest race of his career.

My Choice: Point of Entry

Sprint

There is surely enough early speed in the race to ensure a fair trip around the oval which really leads you to two horses: Amazombie or The Lumber Guy.  Do you believe in the local prep and Amazombie needing that last after a layoff to sharpen up for this one or do you buy into The Lumber Guy’s amazing 110 Beyer in the Grade 1 Vosburgh off the bench?  The Lumber Guy had been training superbly before leaving New York and sprinting certainly seems to be his forte.  Amazombie, who I’ve heard has been called the best dirt sprinter in North America, emerged from seclusion for 1:08.3 to take the Bing Crosby over the artificial surface at Del Mar before heading back to get ready for this race.  He certainly loves being home in California and if he did indeed need one race before the Sprint, Amazombie will be tough to beat – especially with all time BC winningest rider Mike Smith aboard.

My Choice: The Lumber Guy (BUT…and this is a big but here…should the locally prepped horses earlier on the card keep outperforming their Eastern counterparts, I’ll be on Amazombie here)

Mile

US v. Europe.  The best turf miler in America, Wise Dan, takes on the second best turf miler in Europe, Excelebration.  In his last 10 starts, Excelebration has won 6, placing in three and third in the other.  The winning horse each and every time?  Some git named Frankel!  But does losing to a super horse by  combined 16 lengths automatically make you a world beater as well?  I think if they were Affirmed/Alydar type duals then I think the case would be stronger.

Wise Dan has won four of five starts this year and narrowly missed an undefeated season when he just couldn’t get there in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster ...on dirt.  Wise Dan has been remarkably consistent this year winning each mile race with ease and recording solid Beyer figures in each race. 

Both horses need some speed to run at since neither is going to take this field wire to wire.  A horse that will try is Obviously.  Ridden by Joe Talamo, Obviously has won three straight in frontrunning fashion, including the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile and the Grade 2 Arroyo Secco Mile over this very course.  There isn’t a whole lot of speed in this race to go with Obviously so Talamo will gun to the lead and try and hold on the charge.  If he can succeed at slowing down the middle quarters, it will be tough for the top two to catch him since he is really no slouch himself.

My Choice: Obviously (he might not be the best, but he may get the best trip)

Classic

I know it’s been said a million times already, but this Classic is the deepest I’ve ever seen.  Every entrant is a graded stakes winner: many multiple and most just this year.  Of Flat Out, Alpha, Fort Larned, Game on Dude, Richard’s Kid, Ron the Greek, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve – one of them has to finish eighth!!  We could all make a case for just about any horse in here winning and I could agree with the justification.  I need to make a pick here because I have to, but there is a very, very good chance that I’ll be watching this one without a ticket in my hand.

My Choice: Game On Dude (going with who I think is the best horse – but this will be a test for sure)

In the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping Challenge I need a high priced exacta, so my contest pick will be the exacta box of Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned (I TOLD you, I need a high payer).

Best of luck everyone!

Breeders' Cup - Day 1

It’s Breeders’ Cup time again and, it should please you to know, my track record in these races is much better than in the Kentucky Derby.  But then my track record in running marathons is better than my picks in the Derby.  Here’s  a closer look at this afternoon’s races which I’ll have on in the background whilst I work.

Juvenile Sprint

Small field and some real speed ought to make this one interesting.  The clear favorite is the 2 for 2 Merit Man. He won a squeaker in his debut over the artificial surface at Del Mar and then exploded over the Santa Anita dirt to take the Tim Conway.  Bob Baffert’s Super Ninety Nine could improve after a first out win the day after Merit Man’s Conway triumph.  Both colts like the front: Merit Man fought hard three wide in the Conway before putting the field away and Super Ninety Nine dueled up until the stretch before scoring by 1 ¼.  South Floyd will also want to get out early and all three are bunched in the center of the starting gate.

In an older horse race it may turn more on the trip than the talent but with these 2-year olds, I think it’s about the talent and I don’t think anyone else approaches the talent of the top two. 

My Choice: MERIT MAN

Marathon

What a crappy race. Only in America is a mile and 3/4 race a “marathon” and the contenders in here are rather non-descript.  I remember having Romp in my Derby fantasy stable a million years ago.  Eldaafer won this thing a few years ago and hasn’t done much since.  I have no idea how to handicap the South American entries in this race.  Maybe Commander can steal it on the front end at a billion to won and carry his winning streak to 7 – though he hasn’t seen this type of company in Canada…well, what SHOULD be this kind of company.

Know your strengths and know when to pass a race – in real life, I’ll watch this one and wager nothing, though a minor tri box of Commander, Atigun and Worth Repeating may happen, just to keep it interesting.  A public selection needs to be forthcoming so…

My Choice: ATIGUN (which would also give Mike Smith the overall lead in career BC riding wins)

Juvenile Fillies Turf

A nice big field with a couple of also eligible waiting in the wings.  Euro Sky Lantern is the morning line favorite while my choice, Spring Venture, is at a lovely 5-1.  She should be able to stalk just fine.  In compiling her 3 for 3 record she’s barely tried hard and won each easily.  She’s also won at today’s distance.  She may be able to score at a decent price if she goes flat out.  Biggest threat, in my opinion, isn’t Sky Lantern but Watsdachances who is 2 for 2 in the US – both with troubled trips.  She steers clear of trouble and she could romp here.

My Choice: SPRING VENTURE

Juvenile Fillies

Classics aside, this may be the most competitive race over the two days.  Beholder, Executiveprivilege, Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Kate all could step up and win this thing.  There was a lot of ooing and ahing over Beholder’s 108 Beyer last out, but it was earned in a non-winners of one allowance race.  I know that Beyers are supposed to make that irrelevant, but it is indeed relevant.  I’m hoping that the betting is spread among the most likely of contenders so I can get a decent price on the young lady that I feel is the best filly in here: Executiveprivilege.  With a win over the strip and at this distance and having yet to be beaten as well as her ability to rate of a pace, she is…

My Choice: EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE

Filly and Mare Turf

One of the toughest things every year is comparing the Euros and their out of country form against the North American horses.  For the most part it is a difficult exercise, mostly because we Americans are used to certain information presented a certain way and the Euro running lines have information we don’t understand and aren’t used to processing.  And this isn’t an attempt to educate!  I will freely admit if an international race didn’t have Frankel or Black Caviar, I probably didn’t see it.  I most likely will pass again in here and just watch the race, but again a public selection is warranted and I’m going to buy American with Marketing Mix.

In her last three races, she won two and she was closing before missing by a head in the Beverly D.  If she had another 1/16 on the mile and 3/16 distance (for those of you math challenged as I am, that would be a mile and quarter – the Turf distance) she would have beaten I’m A Dreamer.

My Choice: MARKETING MIX

Ladies Classic

WOW!  This race features a LOT of talent.  Every one of the eight entrants hit the board last time out with all but one of those races graded stakes (the other was still a stake); two are undefeated; one is on a four race win streak, another looking for her third; six of the eight won their last race AND the race has the defending champion!!

There are a lot in here that want the front end or stalk a pace.  The only confirmed closer in the group is Include Me Out who probably isn’t nearly as fast as the others in here.  So much so that I’m not sure that even a perfect pace battle can set her up for a win BUT if it does, she should be an excellent price.  We can assume that Love and Pride and Questing will take to the lead and Royal Delta won’t want to be too far behind.  With everyone else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I’m going to take a chance on the major upset in the major race of the day.

(Side note: of the three 3-year olds, only Questing has beaten older – but nowhere near this caliber)

And added note of interest here: this is the second to last race of the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge and I need to go exacta since I’m so far behind.  So here is my value exacta box for the race – Include Me Out and Royal Delta.  I was tempted to include Love and Pride but I think there is going to be a lot of burn out on the front end.

My Choice: Include Me Out

Best of luck everyone and see you for Day 2 tomorrow!