Day One was a mitigated disaster: yeah there wasn’t a single
win on the card for me but my top choices did finish 2nd three times
and 3rd twice over the course of the six races. If I was a show better this would be outstanding;
as a win/place better…not so great, but mitigated rather than unmitigated. The
biggest disappointment on the day for me was the Ladies Classic where I had
longshot Include Me Out in the exacta with winner Royal Delta. Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good
position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the
top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the
very classy My Miss Aurelia. It was a
microcosm of a tough day.
BUT…there is Day 2.
As a horseplayer we always live to fight another day and “another day”
is today.
Juvenile Turf
Several really nice graded stakes winners in this field
including Noble Tune (Gr 3 Pilgrim), I’m Boundtoscore (Gr 2 Summer), Balance
the Books (Gr 3 Bourbon) and Joha (Gr 1 Breeders’ Futurity). You can even through in European Group 3 Solario
Stakes winner Fantastic Moon and Group 3 Acomb Stakes winner Dundonnell into
that group. There are also a variety of
running styles in here but only one of the really classy horses that I would
consider good early speed and that’s Joha.
He just missed wiring the field in the Grade 2 With Anticipation before
his gate to wire score in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
My Choice: Joha
Filly & Mare
Sprint
Groupie Doll. Moving
on…
Dirt Mile
This turned out to be quite the fun little race. Fan favorite Shackleford will lead the field
to the post after a couple of disappointing efforts post Met Mile triumph. Emcee, just on his outside has only failed to
record a triple digit Beyer number in only two of his career starts. Mystic Lake Derby runner up Delegation will
try dirt for the first time off back-to-back wins over the artificial surface
at Woodbine and Jersey Town comes in after surprising just about everyone
(including Shakleford) in the Grade 1 Kelso with ease. Shackleford and Emcee both like being on or
near the led early and, unfortunately for them, so do Fed Biz, Delegation and
perhaps even Second City. All that speed
could set things up for the improving Jersey Town to surprise them again. I don’t think that Jersey Town is the best
horse in the race, but ask The Fugue if the best horse always wins…
My Choice: Jersey Town
Turf Sprint
Not a fan of this race, though it does appear to be a bit
wide open and could present a decent wagering opportunity if you really have a strong
feeling. This is one race I do not have
an overly strong feeling about, but may jump on Unbridled’s Note if the price
is right. Steve Asmussen has Great Mills
in to oush along the pacesetters like California Flag (if I DON’T pick him, he
wins – so be forewarned) and Renneesgotzip.
Normally you could throw Bridgetown into that mix but in the Grade 3
Woodford he sat off the pace a bit and came charging late to blow past Great
Mills to win that race. The hope here is
that Bridgetown, second off a layoff, feels a bit more keen than last time and
tries to take to the lead. Unbridled’s
Note won’t be too far behind and will pick up the pieces.
My Choice: Unbridled’s Note
Juvenile
The Juvy looks like it comes down to undefeated Todd
Pletcher trainee Shanghai Bobby and Bob Baffert trained Power Broker who
appears to have figured out this racing thing in the Grade 1 Front Runner. Power Broker is going to want to sit off an
early pace while Shanghai Bobby will want to stay close to, if not on, the
early lead. Power Broker’s connections have
Title Contender breaking from the one hole and, while certainly not out of his
depth in here, will certainly ensure a solid early pace to run at. Will Bobby take the bait and go or be able to
sit off of Title Contender’s flank until it’s time to run? While Shanghai Bobby is stretching out, the
distance should not be an issue while Power Broker has a win at this distance
AND over this course. This one is a toss
up: do you prefer the local angle or the undefeated colt that has yet to throw
in a clunker?
My Choice: Shanghai Bobby (but narrowly)
Turf
A nice mixed contingent in the turf with some very nice
Euros squaring off against an American entry that is seemingly getting stronger
with every start. A nice colt prior to
trying the turf, Point of Entry has turned into a monster once he was
introduced to the sod by trainer Shug McGaughey. Carrying the fabled colors of the Phipps
stable, Point of Entry is on quite a roll, winning his last five races: four
graded stakes, the last three of which were grade ones. His Beyer numbers have increased with every
race during that streak and he’s come from far back and from just off the pace
to tally the wins. Prior to shipping he
threw two bullet works and is as sharp as can be heading into the biggest race
of his career.
My Choice: Point of Entry
Sprint
There is surely enough early speed in the race to ensure a
fair trip around the oval which really leads you to two horses: Amazombie or
The Lumber Guy. Do you believe in the
local prep and Amazombie needing that last after a layoff to sharpen up for
this one or do you buy into The Lumber Guy’s amazing 110 Beyer in the Grade 1
Vosburgh off the bench? The Lumber Guy
had been training superbly before leaving New York and sprinting certainly
seems to be his forte. Amazombie, who I’ve
heard has been called the best dirt sprinter in North America, emerged from
seclusion for 1:08.3 to take the Bing Crosby over the artificial surface at Del
Mar before heading back to get ready for this race. He certainly loves being home in California
and if he did indeed need one race before the Sprint, Amazombie will be tough
to beat – especially with all time BC winningest rider Mike Smith aboard.
My Choice: The Lumber Guy (BUT…and this is a big but here…should
the locally prepped horses earlier on the card keep outperforming their Eastern
counterparts, I’ll be on Amazombie here)
Mile
US v. Europe. The best turf miler in America, Wise Dan,
takes on the second best turf miler in Europe, Excelebration. In his last 10 starts, Excelebration has won 6,
placing in three and third in the other.
The winning horse each and every time?
Some git named Frankel! But does
losing to a super horse by combined 16
lengths automatically make you a world beater as well? I think if they were Affirmed/Alydar type duals
then I think the case would be stronger.
Wise Dan has won four of five starts this year and narrowly
missed an undefeated season when he just couldn’t get there in the Grade 1 Stephen
Foster ...on dirt. Wise Dan has been
remarkably consistent this year winning each mile race with ease and recording
solid Beyer figures in each race.
Both horses need some speed to run at since neither is going
to take this field wire to wire. A horse
that will try is Obviously. Ridden by
Joe Talamo, Obviously has won three straight in frontrunning fashion, including
the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile and the Grade 2 Arroyo Secco Mile over this very
course. There isn’t a whole lot of speed
in this race to go with Obviously so Talamo will gun to the lead and try and
hold on the charge. If he can succeed at
slowing down the middle quarters, it will be tough for the top two to catch him
since he is really no slouch himself.
My Choice: Obviously (he might not be the best, but he may
get the best trip)
Classic
I know it’s been said a million times already, but this Classic
is the deepest I’ve ever seen. Every
entrant is a graded stakes winner: many multiple and most just this year. Of Flat Out, Alpha, Fort Larned, Game on
Dude, Richard’s Kid, Ron the Greek, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve –
one of them has to finish eighth!! We
could all make a case for just about any horse in here winning and I could
agree with the justification. I need to
make a pick here because I have to, but there is a very, very good chance that
I’ll be watching this one without a ticket in my hand.
My Choice: Game On Dude (going with who I think is the best
horse – but this will be a test for sure)
In the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping
Challenge I need a high priced exacta, so my contest pick will be the exacta
box of Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned (I TOLD you, I need a high payer).
Best of luck everyone!
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