It’s Breeders’ Cup time again and, it should please you to
know, my track record in these races is much better than in the Kentucky
Derby. But then my track record in
running marathons is better than my picks in the Derby. Here’s a closer look at this afternoon’s races which
I’ll have on in the background whilst I work.
Juvenile Sprint
Small field and some real speed ought to make this one
interesting. The clear favorite is the 2
for 2 Merit Man. He won a squeaker in his debut over the artificial surface at Del
Mar and then exploded over the Santa Anita dirt to take the Tim Conway. Bob Baffert’s Super Ninety Nine could improve
after a first out win the day after Merit Man’s Conway triumph. Both colts like the front: Merit Man fought
hard three wide in the Conway before putting the field away and Super Ninety
Nine dueled up until the stretch before scoring by 1 ¼. South Floyd will also want to get out early
and all three are bunched in the center of the starting gate.
In an older horse race it may turn more on the trip than the
talent but with these 2-year olds, I think it’s about the talent and I don’t
think anyone else approaches the talent of the top two.
My Choice: MERIT MAN
Marathon
What a crappy race. Only in America is a mile and 3/4 race
a “marathon” and the contenders in here are rather non-descript. I remember having Romp in my Derby fantasy
stable a million years ago. Eldaafer won
this thing a few years ago and hasn’t done much since. I have no idea how to handicap the South
American entries in this race. Maybe
Commander can steal it on the front end at a billion to won and carry his
winning streak to 7 – though he hasn’t seen this type of company in Canada…well,
what SHOULD be this kind of company.
Know your strengths and know when to pass a race – in real
life, I’ll watch this one and wager nothing, though a minor tri box of
Commander, Atigun and Worth Repeating may happen, just to keep it
interesting. A public selection needs to
be forthcoming so…
My Choice: ATIGUN (which would also give Mike Smith the
overall lead in career BC riding wins)
Juvenile Fillies Turf
A nice big field with a couple of also eligible waiting in
the wings. Euro Sky Lantern is the
morning line favorite while my choice, Spring Venture, is at a lovely 5-1. She should be able to stalk just fine. In compiling her 3 for 3 record she’s barely
tried hard and won each easily. She’s
also won at today’s distance. She may be
able to score at a decent price if she goes flat out. Biggest threat, in my opinion, isn’t Sky
Lantern but Watsdachances who is 2 for 2 in the US – both with troubled
trips. She steers clear of trouble and
she could romp here.
My Choice: SPRING VENTURE
Juvenile Fillies
Classics aside, this may be the most competitive race over
the two days. Beholder,
Executiveprivilege, Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Kate all could step up and win
this thing. There was a lot of ooing and
ahing over Beholder’s 108 Beyer last out, but it was earned in a non-winners of
one allowance race. I know that Beyers
are supposed to make that irrelevant, but it is indeed relevant. I’m hoping that the betting is spread among
the most likely of contenders so I can get a decent price on the young lady
that I feel is the best filly in here: Executiveprivilege. With a win over the strip and at this
distance and having yet to be beaten as well as her ability to rate of a pace,
she is…
My Choice: EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE
Filly and Mare Turf
One of the toughest things every year is comparing the Euros
and their out of country form against the North American horses. For the most part it is a difficult exercise,
mostly because we Americans are used to certain information presented a certain
way and the Euro running lines have information we don’t understand and aren’t
used to processing. And this isn’t an
attempt to educate! I will freely admit
if an international race didn’t have Frankel or Black Caviar, I probably didn’t
see it. I most likely will pass again in
here and just watch the race, but again a public selection is warranted and I’m
going to buy American with Marketing Mix.
In her last three races, she won two and she was closing
before missing by a head in the Beverly D.
If she had another 1/16 on the mile and 3/16 distance (for those of you
math challenged as I am, that would be a mile and quarter – the Turf distance)
she would have beaten I’m A Dreamer.
My Choice: MARKETING MIX
Ladies Classic
WOW! This race
features a LOT of talent. Every one of
the eight entrants hit the board last time out with all but one of those races
graded stakes (the other was still a stake); two are undefeated; one is on a
four race win streak, another looking for her third; six of the eight won their
last race AND the race has the defending champion!!
There are a lot in here that want the front end or stalk a
pace. The only confirmed closer in the
group is Include Me Out who probably isn’t nearly as fast as the others in
here. So much so that I’m not sure that
even a perfect pace battle can set her up for a win BUT if it does, she should
be an excellent price. We can assume
that Love and Pride and Questing will take to the lead and Royal Delta won’t
want to be too far behind. With everyone
else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I’m going to take a
chance on the major upset in the major race of the day.
(Side note: of the three 3-year olds, only Questing has
beaten older – but nowhere near this caliber)
And added note of interest here: this is the second to last
race of the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for
Charity Challenge and I need to go exacta since I’m so far behind. So here is my value exacta box for the race –
Include Me Out and Royal Delta. I was
tempted to include Love and Pride but I think there is going to be a lot of
burn out on the front end.
My Choice: Include Me Out
Best of luck everyone and see you for Day 2 tomorrow!
