Kentucky Derby Day Preview; Oaks Day Recap

My Oaks day started off frustrating, peaked and then was downhill from there.  The best thing I can say about it is that I didn't get shut out.  In the Edgewater (QUALITY ROCKS) and the La Troienne (SHEER DRAMA) I finished 2nd.  In a thrilling Alysheba, if it wasn't for a Herculean effort by PROTONICO to fight back after being headed in deep stretch to win, I would have had my 3rd place finish in a row. 

I took stabs with longer shots in the Turf Sprint (CHANNEL MARKER) and the Eight Belles (EKATI'S PHAETON) and finished off the board in both. 

In the Oaks, I'M A CHATTERBOX left herself too much to do and, though she closed adroitly, it was too little, too late and she finished 3rd, behind the impressive LOVELY MARIA and long shot SHOOK UP.

The final stat line: 6 races - 1 win, 2 places, 1 third for my top choices.

 

DERBY DAY

This may be the hardest Derby I’ve ever analyzed.  Judging from my highly publicized track record (1 for ever) you’d think they were ALL unbearably hard, but this one was brutal.  I’ll admit, right now as I type this up at lunch at an Italian restaurant in Mauston, WI I STILL have no idea who my final Derby selection will be.  Before that, though, I CAN go ahead and give the thumbnails for my Hello Race Fans selections on the undercard.  By the time you read the Derby pick, I would have returned home and taken my stab!

PAT DAY MILE

COMPETITIVE EDGE is the big favorite in this one and while I really like him in here, it’s hard to like him at 6/5.  Especially since he doesn’t seem to tower over this field of 8.  The Pletcher trainee is undefeated and really hasn’t done anything wrong, but is liable to get hooked early by the likes of HILBILLY ROYALTY and GIMME DA LUTE.  The race seems to set up very nicely for LORD NELSON and I look for him to take it late.

AMERICAN TURF

A large field with no clear favorite so I’m going with one that hasn’t disappointed anyone yet: GRANNY’S KITTEN.  This Ramsey homebred had a very professional debut at two and now makes his 3-year old debut here.  His work pattern is solid and Maker is a fair 17% off a layoff.  Admittedly he’ll be a price but I felt this was a race to take a stab.

The scratch of GRANNY'S KITTEN made me re-evaluate the race and I landed upon NUN THE LESS.  Sure, it's a step up but this isn't exactly the Derby group going here and he's a Minnesota owned horse.  He should track well and if the race sets up right he could be right there at the end.

HUMANA DISTAFF

The shortest priced favorite of the day should be JUDY THE BEAUTY in here and I’m not going to try and get cute and beat her.  She stands over this field and should win it with ease.

DISTAFF TURF MILE

A nice, big, betable field in here.  There are several to make a case for, but I went with SANDIVA.  She never seemed to get untracked in the US after her arrival until she won at 9/2 in a Gulfstream overnight stake.  She then stepped up in the Grade 3 Suwanee River and won again.  She just got nipped at the end of the Grade 2 Honey Fox last out by Lady Lara.  While she may prefer a little longer, a second straight shot at a flat mile should be more to her liking and I’m hoping she turns the tables on her rival.

THE CHURCHILL DOWNS

BAYERN or PRIVATE ZONE.  PRIVATE ZONE or BAYERN.  Which way to go??  How about PANTS ON FIRE?  The two top choices as well as C. ZEE and BREWING should all want a piece of what’s going on up front in the 7 furlong sprint.  PANTS ON FIRE should be perfectly positioned to take advantage of the pace scenario, sitting right behind the leaders and building off of his 2015 debut win in the Sir Shakleton.  With the two favorites behind him, we should get a nice price as well.

TURF CLASSIC

We have a girl against the boys in the Turf Classic with STEPHANIE’S KITTEN tangling with FINNEGAN’S WAKE among others in here.  The problem for both of them is lack of pace.  No one is really going to want to go in this group…except for CHOCOLATE RIDE.  Joe Talamo has already proven that he can rate CHOCOLATE RIDE and he has 2 gate to wire wins in his last two races – both graded stakes going a mile and an eighth.  This is a tall order but if no one goes out to challenge, Talamo will control the pace again and we’ll win with double digit odds.

KENTUCKY DERBY

This was one hell of an exercise.  I started by eliminating those, in my view, that really didn’t stand a chance to win the race.  I was able to clear half the field but then again, that left half the field.  I read articles, watched replays and listened to the radio and what I learned is that with this Derby group I can be easily swayed.  Every ‘expert’ with an opinion could sway me.

Here is why AMERICAN PHAROAH can’t lose.  Okay, I buy that.

Here is why his stablemate DORTMUND will win.  Okay, I’m in.

No horse that hasn’t run as a 2-year old has won the Derby since Columbus crossed the ocean.  BUT…here is why MATERIALITY can break that streak.  Sounds good!

And on…and on…and on.

It seems as if we have a subset in the race of closely matched, very good horses with differing running styles and that, for the most part, prepped in different locations coming together for the first time to try something that none of them have yet: a mile and a quarter race with 150,000 people screaming at them every inch of the way.
The reality probably is that by the time Saratoga and Del Mar are finished up we’ll have a much better indication of what this crop is like.  Will there be a super horse? Is this the best group of 3-year olds since [insert favorite crop year here]? Have a few separated themselves from the rest?  Do we have a rivalry like AFFIRMED and ALYDAR?  All these questions will be answered then. Now we need to pick the Derby and start answering the questions.

My choice is FROSTED.

He was a solid and promising 2-year old, finishing 2^nd in the Grade 2 Remsen before heading to the bench but then couldn’t get untracked as a 3.  His Holy Bull effort was decent by he was soundly defeated by UPSTART.  In the Fountain of Youth he looked very strong until he faded back to 4^th in the lane.  He was sent off to undergo a throat procedure which was designed to help his breathing from an occasional displacement of the soft palate. If I get any deeper, I’m lost…net/net: he was breathing better under the stress of exercise.

His first race with the new and improved breathing system was a strong closing win in the Wood Memorial to win by two while posting his best lifetime Beyer Speed Figure (103).  Reunited with Joel Rosario for the Derby, Frosted should be able to get decent position while breaking from the 15 spot and shouldn’t have too much work to do when the real running starts.  He should be able to get the mile and a quarter, giving trainer Kiaran McLaughlin his first Derby win in his 5^th start.

 

Is Churchill on the Verge of a Fall?

First Churchill Downs flips off players with a hike in takeout rates then they make a spin move and flip off owners with the same bird by not providing even a minimal ticket allotment for owners running in graded stakes.  The last straw for me in this fortnight or so of Churchill’s money grab is lack of accommodation for a Hall of Fame jockey that brought some of the greatest memories in the sport to us: the snubbing of Ronnie Turcotte who, one could argue, gave more of himself to the game than most.

I’m not going to get into the specifics of each transgression, but you can read about each of them with these links:

Takeout - http://www.playersboycott.org/

Owner Seating - http://foxhillfarmstable.com/2014/04/28/churchill-made-an-irresponsible-mistake/

Turcotte - http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84712/turcotte-issues-statement-against-churchill

I would offer these words of caution to the geniuses at CDI: keep biting the hand that feeds you and you’ll be wringing your OWN hands wondering what the hell happened.

I’ve been in the gaming industry for nearly 20 years now.  I’ve seen the rise and fall of casino companies as well as casino suppliers and there are a few things that the “falls” have had in common and Churchill Downs is already starting to exhibit some of the early signs of these behaviors.

Raising Takeout to Increase Revenue.  I’ve seen this at several major casino companies: tighten up the games a little bit and watch the revenue roll in.  And it works.  But it doesn’t work forever.  Players eventually know that there is something different.  They may not be able to say that the hold percentages have gone up (hold percentage to a slot machine is like takeout to racing), but they know one thing: I can’t seem to win anymore.  The weekly trip to the casino becomes twice monthly and then becomes once a month and then “only when we’re close” to, finally, not coming at all or finding a casino where they feel like they are winning.

Once large company’s justification was that it has such a great player loyalty program that people will keep on coming because of the great offers.  At some point the players realize that the free buffet or show cost them $300 and the quality of THOSE had gone down as well.  Now there are rumors that it is matter of when, not if, this company will declare bankruptcy.

Sure, CDI, you have Derby but if players don’t feel like they can win or that the facilities are becoming sub-standard (see CDI’s Fairgrounds issues below) they’ll stop coming and stop betting on your product.  And one thing horseplayers have that casino players don’t is a group like the Horseplayer’s Association of North America that can hasten things along.

Putting Dollars Over Sense.  The most analogous in gaming would be the cheapening of offers by casinos to players.  While apt (and occurring), I would compare this more to the big gaming supplier that changed management and decided that surest way to improve the bottom line was to cut staff, cut benefits and hire as cheaply as possible.  The arrogance was that the product was so good that casinos would HAVE to keep buying or leasing their product – regardless of the sales rep or customer support.

When competitors started to cut deals with customers, this company refused.  Again, it was an “our product is so good you HAVE to have it” attitude.  However, what ACTUALLY happened is that casinos moved on to other game suppliers.  Thousands of revenue share games were removed from casinos across the country, impacting the bottom line by tens of millions of dollars.  One casino outlined how their “better performing” games actually COST the property money.  Let me digress to illustrate.

In revenue share situations the casino and supplier share in the revenue of a game.  Traditionally this has been 80% for the casino and 20% for the manufacturer.  There are other models but this is the easiest to illustrate.

Big company A’s games made $800 a day: their 20% was $160 while the casino kept $640.

Company B’s games only made $700 a day.  However, they made a deal and capped their percentage at $50 a day, letting the casino keep the rest.

Sure, company A’s games were better performing, but company B’s games did two things: allowed the casino to keep $10 more per game per game AND reduced their operating budget expense by $90 a day per game.  This allowed the casino to spend more on upgrades and conversions and stretch their budget further while earning more money on a “lesser” performing game. 

Company A’s unwillingness to deal with their customers has led to more layoffs to try and stabilize profits.  The value that casinos were used to getting from Company A was erased by the lack of qualified and experienced people and the blindness of the new management to their lack of expertise.  As a result, market share has suffered and stock price has been stagnant for nearly five years.  What seemed like a good idea at first collapsed under its own shortsightedness.

Lack of Reinvestment. Talk to horsemen about the deplorable condition of the Churchill Downs backside.  Heather was shocked when she saw it several years ago and was amazed at how much nicer the backside at Canterbury is comparatively speaking.  Vendors, trainers and owners alike have all said basically the same thing to me at one time or another over the past year: Churchill Downs cares NOTHING about racing anymore.  CDI management may try and disagree, but if that’s what your core clientele perceive, then it is your reality.

The Louisiana Racing Commercial had to strong arm CDI in order to get improvements made to Fair Grounds Racetrack.  This is NOT a company looking to reinvest in its racing product.

A very large, independent, off-strip casino was once known for its well-appointed rooms and fabulous food choices.  It thrived and had a very loyal following.  It was sold to a mega company and things began to change.  The restaurant quality began to slide and several closed.  Friends of mine that were loyal customers were telling me that the rooms were in need of upgrading with dirty carpets, holes in the drapes and upholstery.  And, worst of all to them, they couldn’t seem to win anymore.  Sound familiar?

 

CDI may be starting to show these beginnings of demise if you look closely.  Unless the core issues are addressed the rosy earnings reports may last one more quarter but then begin to slowly slide.  Other astute and savvy operators will assault the chinks in the armor by providing better service – and opportunity - to owners, players and VIPs.   Players will vote with their wallets and chose other racing opportunities.  Casinos are a dime a dozen now so those patrons can walk even easier if they feel they aren’t getting a fair deal.  (And if CDI is gouging their horseplayers, can you imagine what their casino hold must be?) Owners and trainers will show their displeasure by racing elsewhere.

Will a prominent owner one day eschew the Derby because of the way they are being treated?  Who knows?  The Derby allure may be too strong for that.  But the rest of the racing season will be up for grabs.   Perhaps Pinnacle Entertainment will treat their horsemen better at the new Belterra Park (River Downs) and with enhanced purses, thanks to slots in Ohio, they may draw horsemen away.

Don’t be shortsighted Churchill.  There are other options and folks have already started looking.

Derby, Oaks and Canterbury Musings

Kentucky Derby

I supposed I should start with the obvious – once again I go down in flames in picking the Kentucky Derby winner.  Alpha was simply a no show around the racetrack.  When his connections try to figure out what went wrong, someone should tell them, “Grevelis picked you” and just shake their head slowly. 

I made the mistake of clearly underestimating jockey Mario Gutierrez.  In the blog I openly questioned whether the unheralded young rider in his first Derby had what it takes to pilot home I’ll Have Another on that large a stage – and discounted the horse’s chance because of it.  I was clearly wrong. The horse has clearly stepped up from two to three, ran great preps, should have had no problem with the distance and his running style was well suited to the race.  I questioned the pilot and young Gutierrez beat me down with his whip.  Good for him – it was a good ride and I’m happy for him.

Doug O’Neill had the winner prepped perfectly and I could hear the cheering from my California friends all the way up in the Canterbury press box.  Several of the horses that I had a minority interest in that ran in California a few years back were trained by O’Neill.  I met him on one occasion in the walking ring at Santa Anita and he was gracious, warm and unassuming. Friends who have a closer relationship with him speak in much more glowing terms.  Both he and Gutierrez will need to hold on tight and put on some sunglasses because it is going to be quite a ride heading into the Preakness and the spotlight is going to be very bright.

Most of the buzz after the race was about Bodemeister and while no one wants to discount the Derby winner, setting those fractions up front and still managing to hold on to second was nothing short of amazing.  Of the others that were close to that early pace, Hansen held on the best and he faded to ninth while the others finished 15^th, 19^th and 20^th while Bodemeister was only beaten one and a half lengths.  That Arkansas Derby was no fluke and he made a believer out of me.

Kentucky Oaks

The race set up in the exact opposite way I envisioned.  I know when the half mile split came up in :47.47 that there was no way Summer Applause could close into that pace.  I was surprised that Broadway’s Alibi couldn’t hold the lead, but Believe You Can certainly believed she could as she ground out the victory down the lane over a very game Broadway Alibi.  With The top five including Grace Hall and On Fire Baby, it looks like the filly crop is nearly as deep as the males.  It’s shaping up to be a great 2012 racing season.

Picking Winners

Over at Hello Race Fans, my guest shot at taking on the best in Graded Stakes races was less than impressive.  I whiffed on all 11 stakes (though I DID have some company there, so I didn’t feel too badly) while ending up with 3 seconds and 2 thirds.  Not one of my more dazzling performances and, unlike Mario Gutierrez, I wilted under the glare of the spotlight.  I have no excuses and I will do better on Black Eyed Susan/Preakness weekend…if I managed to get invited back!

Canterbury Park

Governor Mark Dayton signed the purse enhancement bill the other day so it’s now official, there will be some purse relief for horsemen, though it looks like the effects will not be felt until next season.  That may appear to be a bit of a letdown, but given that current year revenue generates the following year’s purses, it makes a whole lot of sense.  While purses will not go through the roof, they should stabilize and return to levels that we haven’t seen in a few years.  It will give owners and trainers a fighting chance to recoup their investments and make some money and still race at one of the most horsemen friendly facilities in the United States.

The MTA New Owner's Seminar had a nice turnout on Saturday.  I was privileged to speak about racing partnerships and the mechanics of claiming.  Hopefully we didn't scare them away with the realities of the industry.  I always start these things with some sobering statistics geared to make them think about why they are getting into this game.  Expectations need to be realistic and going in thinking you're going to invest $200 and come away with several thousand is simply out of whack.  Once that's out of the way, I can relate the details of ownership and try to let folks know what the feeling is like when your horse crosses the wire first.  At the end, I hope that folks have a clear understanding of the realities and joys of the sport I love so much.

Live racing begins Preakness Day weekend and I’ve worked out a deal with a local trainer that many folks have been asking me for: a Canterbury only runner that can be “owned” for just the racing season.  It’s a two horse package where we would lease 50% of the horses while trainer owns the remaining 50%.  You can e-mail me for details but we would start as soon as the group was formed (ideally this coming week) and finish up on the last day of the meet, September 3^rd.  It should be inexpensive and fun way to have action all season while getting a taste of the ownership experience.

It All Starts With Alpha

Welcome to the annual rite of futility.  Contrary to popular belief, I am not 0 for 138 in the Kentucky Derby (I had Regret in 1915), it only feels that way.  Yet here I am, giving it the old college try.  I don’t know if I should be proud of myself for persevering or ashamed for publicly humiliating myself year after year.  This year the audience grows as I take on 12 of the best handicappers in the country over at Hello Race Fans as we choose all the graded stakes over the weekend including the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.  To single any of them out would be unfair to the rest, so go ahead and take a look.  If you’re new to racing it’s the perfect site to get you started, if you’re a veteran, I believe you’ll find some things that will enlighten and entertain you – including seeing how yours truly stacks up!

(I think that Adam and Dana lost a bet and had to include me, but I digress)

It’s exciting to see a field come together that seems to be deep and talented.  We’ve been starved for 3-year old males over the over the past several years and this year’s crop looks like a nice one.  It’s making for a wide open Derby and the opportunity for me to get off this snide.

1.      Daddy Long Legs (O’Brien/O’Donoghue) 30-1: I’m not sure about this horse.  He ran a crappy Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, took the winter off and then scored with ease in the UAE Derby to kick off his 3-year old campaign.  He’s posted no works over the Churchill strip and all his best efforts have been on turf or synthetic.

2.      Optimizer (Lukas/Court) 50-1: The last time I said “no way” on a horse it was Mine that Bird.  That said, I can’t see anything to recommend on a horse that lost by 20 ½ lengths last time out.  It looks like that 2^nd place finish in the Rebel was more fluke than flash.

3.      Take Charge Indy (Byrne/Borel) 15-1: Sure to be overbet with Calvin Borel on his back, I don’t think this guy will make the distance.  He likes to be on the engine and there will be other horses wanting that front end.  It’ll be tough for anyone to take this field wire-to-wire.

4.      Union Rags (Matz/Leparoux) 9-2: Tepid second choice in the morning line, I LOVED this colt after the Juvenile last year, getting a God-awful trip and still just missing Hansen by a head.  When he busted out in the Fountain of Youth, I would have bet him then and there, but was disappointed in his Florida Derby.  I’m not ruling him out altogether, he just seems to find trouble and he’ll get plenty of it in this field.

5.      Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux) 8-1: I’ll tell you that Dullahan is not my choice but if he wins, as the owner of a couple of Even the Score ladies, I would be pretty happy.  I think this colt may be better over turf than dirt and will end up on the outside looking in.

6.      Bodemeister (Baffert/Smith) 4-1: Can’t argue with the connections or the decision to make him the ML favorite.  His win in the Arkansas Derby was one of the more dominating performances of the Derby season and he comes in third off the layoff with good works.  What’s not to like?  Possibly the early pace up front where he likes to be.  Even for a colt of his considerable talent it’ll be very hard to wire this field.  So while he seems to be a good favorite, I’m taking a stand against him.

7.      Rousing Sermon (Hollendorfer/Lezcano) 50-1: He appeared to really step up while finishing second in the Louisiana Derby.  That field was nowhere near the caliber of some of the other Derby preps and though he should close nicely, he won’t get a sniff here.

8.      Creative Cause (Harrington/Rosario) 12-1: Beat the favorite in the San Felipe and missed by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby to I’ll Have Another.  He should have a really nice stalking trip and has the closing kick to possibly pick up the pieces of the crumbling front runners. (NOTE: Prior to publishing rumors are running rampant regarding Creative Cause scratching from the Derby)

9.      Trinniberg (Parboo/Martinez) 50-1:  Why?  Why would you compromise the future of a possibly brilliant sprinter so you can say you had a Derby runner.  A good reason why the field should be cut back from 20.  The only things that can happen from him in the race are bad: fry the favorite early and ruin his own future.

10.   Daddy Nose Best (Asmussen/Gomez) 15-1: I wish nothing but the best for my doppleganger, but I’m not sure that his road to Kentucky toughened him up enough for this field.  His figs are excellent, his style is suited and he proved that he could win on dirt last out.  He may get a piece of the super, but I don’t see him on top.

11.   Alpha (McLaughlin/Maragh) 15-1: Had a nice start to 2012 before taking couple of months and then just could not get past Gemologist in the Wood.  The distance is not an issue and if he needed one under his belt after the hiatus, he could be ready to roll here.

12.   Prospective (Casse/Contreras) 30-1: It’s hard to blame the demolition that occurred in the Blue Grass to the surface since Prospective broke his maiden and won the Grey over the synthetic at Woodbine.  The Blue Grass was a step up and Prospective wilted.

13.   Went the Day Well (Motion/Velazquez) 20-1: This may be a spot that is a little too ambitious.  Style fits nicely, but is ability may not.

14.   Hansen (Maker/Dominguez) 10-1: Guaranteed winner according to his owner but he’s going to need to get past 13 horses on his inside to get to where he wants to be early and Bodemeister is going to be in the way, among others.  He won’t be able to cash his owner’s check.

15.   Gemologist (Pletcher/Castellano) 6-1: How do you NOT like undefeated?  He was gritty and held off Alpha in the Wood but would he have been able to do so for another 1/8 of a mile?

16.   El Padrino (Pletcher/Bjerano) 20-1: He’s got the right running style for this field, but figures declining over the last three races as the competition stiffened and the distance grew. He won’t be able to overcome these.

17.   Done Talking (Smith/Russell) 50-1: Seemed to improve second off the layoff in the Illinois Derby, but also had a much softer field.  He’s back in the bigs for this one.

18.   Sabercat (Asmussen/Nakatani) 30-1: Does not seem to have improved since two and maybe should have opted for the Secret Circle route – staying home.

19.   I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Guitierrez) 12-1: Nice preps out west and seems to have really made strides as a three year old.  The distance shouldn’t be an issue but was nearly caught by Creative Cause when he moved past a mile and a 16^th.  His running style fits nicely but can Gutierrez stare done these others and pilot him home first?

20.   Liaison (Baffert/Garcia) 50-1: Didn’t finish the Lewis, beaten in the San Felipe and soundly walloped in the Santa Anita.  Does not belong in the field.

21.   ALSO ELIGIBLE My Adonis (Breen/Trujillo) 50-1: Doesn’t look like he’ll get in and probably for the best.

A big field with several who shouldn’t be around but will cause problems in during the race.  Topping that list is Trinniberg.  All this horse does is cause problems for Bodemeister.  There is a very real possibility that Bodemeister is the best horse in this field but he won’t be around at the end to show it because of the front end pressure he’ll receive.  Hopefully the colt will be able to rate, but he hasn’t shown any inkling to do so up until this point.  I wonder if Bob Baffert goes to bed at night cursing Bisnath Parboo? And Gemologist is not immune to front-runner-it is either – three of his five wins were wire to wire, though he has shown a much better ability to rate than the others.  Finally, guaranteed winner Hansen will certainly want to be on or about the lead.  That’s a lot of speed mixed with a lot of talent on the front end.

As the front runners roll, the stalkers will be in a nice position to try and pick up the pieces when things start to fall apart through the final turn.  Union Rags, I’ll Have Another, Creative Cause and Alpha will be fighting for a good spot to launch their bids.  All, of course, will not be successful.  Union Rags won’t get the mile and a quarter and I think that I’ll Have Another is a step below this group.  I think that this race comes down to Creative Cause and Alpha with some of the closers like Dullahan and Daddy Nose Best just not quite up to the same level as these two.  Of the possible horses up front, Gemologist is the one with the grit to stick around. 

(NOTE: Prior to publishing, rumors abound about Creative Cause scratching out of the race.  Here is where you need to determine, is he okay or if he races will he be less than 100%.  This would be cause for concern if the rumors persist past the next few hours.  Pay attention to the information out there and make your decision accordingly.  Should the rumors persist and I'm uncomfortable with what I'm hearing, I would move Gemologist up to 2 and Union Rags 3)

1.      Alpha

2.      Creative Cause

3.   Gemologist

Alpha will be the one that breaks the curse and leads me out of the Derby darkness.

Kentucky Oaks Preview

Before you get my “Pick Which Must Be Avoided” tomorrow for the Kentucky Derby, let’s take a rundown of the Kentucky Oaks.

This race, like its male counterpart on Saturday, looks like it’s chock full of possibilities with a very deep field with 9 graded stakes winners!  You could make a case for several fillies in this field, much as you can for the colts on Saturday.  I love that the fields seem very talented and deep – I feel like it’s been a long time since we’ve seen this kind of talent.

 

1-     On Fire Baby (Hartlage/Johnson) 4-1: She’s only had one real stinker and that was the follow up to her maiden win over the synthetic surface.  She likes to stalk and there is plenty of speed in here to oblige her.

2-     Grace Hall (Dutrow/Castellano) 5-2: Morning line favorite and certainly rightfully so.  Never finished out of the exacta but did lose by a neck to Yara.  That was in her 3 year old debut and can be forgiven after her dominating follow up performance in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

3-     Summer Applause (Calhoun/Gomez) 15-1: Only losses since her debut were both to Believe You Can including her last, the Fair Ground Oaks.  She was closing steadily in that race and has gotten speedier as she’s gone longer.  Race and extra half furlong could set this up for her.

4-     Eden’s Move (Baffert/Garcia) 12-1: Drifted a bit in the Santa Anita Oaks like she could have been a bit tired but pedigree says she should get the distance.  Both wins were on the engine and that feat is going to be tough to do with the speedsters in here.

5-     Hard Not to Like (Cox/Albarado) 20-1: Seems to have really improved since her two year old season, coming within ¾ of a length of beating Karlovy Vary in the Grade 1 Ashland. So was it a function of improvement or surface since she’s been all turf and synthetic.  She could be ready to fire if she enjoys the dirt.

6-     Broadway’s Alibi (Pletcher/Velazquez) 4-1: Co-second choice has reeled off four in a way leading at nearly every call of every race while doing it.  Sports the best Beyer in the field and great connections.  She’s not the only early speed in here and that could be her undoing…unless she’s much the best.

7-     Sacristy (Catalano/Smith) 50-1: Beaten by nearly 17 in the Forward Gal by Broadway’s Alibi and first time around two turns.  She’ll be coming from off the pace in here, but I just don’t think that she’s as talented as the rest of this group.

8-     Jemima’s Pearl (Baffert/Talamo) 10-1: Euro nailed a win first time out in North America in an $80K optional claiming race at Santa Anita and then a steady third in the Fantasy.  Showing an affinity for the dirt and looking at the third race back since her layoff.  Another step up puts her right in the hunt.

9-     Believe You Can (Jones/Napravnik) 10-1: Hard fought win the Fair Ground Oaks while setting the fractions, turning the tables on Summer Applause in the process avenging her defeat in the Rachel Alexandra.  Yet another who likes it close to the lead.

10-  And Why Not (Matz/Leparoux) 15-1: Filly that has generated a lot buzz in the last week since it looks as if the race will set up perfectly for this deep closer.  That may be so, but filly hasn’t won since breaking her maiden while losing to some of the more fancied runners in here.  The race may come back to her…but not enough to hit the wire first.

11-  Kalovy Vary (Arnold/Graham) 20-1: Winner of two in a row to start the season, neither of those efforts were over dirt.  Her only dirt start, the Golden Rod over this strip, was a mess and easily her weakest effort.

12-  Colonial Empress (Lukas/Nakatani) 50-1: This filly intrigues me but unfortunately for the wrong reason – she’s going to try and break her maiden in the Oaks!  In her three previous tries, all stakes, she hasn’t finished higher than 3^rd and lost by a combined 34 lengths.  I would LOVE to know what the reasoning was in entering her here.

13-  Amie’s Dini (Moquett/Court) 10-1: Never out of the top 3, she holds a special place in my heart for breaking her maiden with our own trainer/jockey combination (Rhone/Butler).  Won at a mile but came up short going longer and now will have to go yet another 1/8 of a mile.  Unlikely and may even end her streak of trifecta finishes.

14-  Yara (Garoffalo/Castanon) 30-1: Beaten by 10 by the ML favorite in the Gulfstream Park Oaks after nipping her in the shorter Davona Dale at 64-1.  It’s hard to not see that race as the exception not the rule.

15-  ALSO ELIGIBLE – Oaks Lilly (Hills/Bejarano) 50-1: Took 7 tries to break her maiden and even then barely did so.  Beaten by 15 over the strip in the slop in her 2 year old finale.  Probably best if she doesn’t get in and tries a NW2 other than…

The race is very intriguing since there is a lot of early speed and several fillies that would like to track that speed.  Only 3 of the fillies have gone a mile and an 1/8 with only Grace Hall prevailing, smoking And Why Not in the process.  The biggest question is whether or not Broadway’s Alibi is going to have her own way up front; no other speed in the race has not burned fractions like hers – especially over the slop at Gulfstream in her seasonal bow.  That race was only 7 furlongs, however, and she backed off considerably from that pace next out in the mile long Comely.  Eden’s Moon will be the key to the early portion of the race.  If she can set a West Coast style pace early, Broaway’s Alibi will be able to keep up but then the question is for how long?  The answer, I’m afraid, will not be along enough.

The race will probably stay chalky and I say that because the deep closers in the field just don’t seem to be talented enough to overtake even a fast pace with stalkers of this caliber who are highly regarded.  I just don’t see the likes of Hard Not to Like and And Why Not to passing On Fire Baby and Grace Hall unless all go suicidal.  Then the race comes down to the stalkers on the inside.

Both Grace Hall and On Fire Baby can certainly take a step forward and while On Fire Baby has had a bit more spacing between races, it’s obvious from her last that she can fire off the bench.  However, if you’re looking for some value, and aren’t we all, the race looks to set up perfectly for Summer Applause.  She’ll be a bit behind On Fire Baby and Grace Hall and the pace battle up front could drag even the pressing stalkers along faster than they would like.  When the dust settles, I look for Summer Applause to be under the wire first.  She may not end up being the best of these, but she only needs to be the best for one day.

 My picks:

1.      Summer Applause

2.      On Fire Baby

3.      Grace Hall

Best of luck and coming tomorrow, my Derby Selection or, “The Pick Which Must Be Avoided”.  Come back and see who gets my kiss of death!  Or maybe the long streak will finally be over…

Taking Stock of the Breeders' Cup - Wagering

Breeders’ Cup weekend is always interesting.  You can count on upsets and a stirring performance or two.  It also kicks off the beginning of racing’s ‘hot stove’ season when we start talking about the next year’s Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown series, but more about that later in the week.  This is all about assessing the selections for BC11.  Below are my notes from the two days.  I thought about distilling it down and/or polishing it a bit, but there is some charm to the unvarnished notes.

It’s always interesting how the mood can swing through the ups and downs of handicapping.  You can’t win ‘em all and you can’t bet them all and you can’t let your emotions get the best of you.  You pick your spots and try to score, however when you write a blog, or publicly handicap, you have to have an opinion on everything so you pick them all and hope you do well.  For the two day card, I was abysmal.  For the races I actually wagered, I was excellent. Ultimately when you wager it’s about making money and I was fortunate that my poor overall percentage didn’t translate into a money losing weekend, mostly due to the trifecta and exacta in the Juvenile on Saturday.

Here is the recap.

DAY 1

Juvenile Sprint – Not a tough pick and not a particularly profitable one, but a win is a win and Secret Circle felt like a gimme and ran like he was one.  Batting 1.000 so far for the Breeders’ Cup!

Juvenile Fillies Turf – I like Stephanie’s Kitten a lot and when my mom mentioned that we should bet on her because my beloved little sister’s name is Stephanie, the world of handicapping and hunching collided.  She ran like a champion, claimed the led in the lane and went on to victory at 6-1.  LOVE 6-1s.  Still batting 1.000.  This game is easy!

Filly & Mare Sprint – I was taking a stand against favored Turbulent Descent and was spot on.  The only problem was my choice, Switch, started the race a bit too far back and could only close as far as second.  Still, if you bet her across the board you still won money.  Interestingly, my throw in horse for third, Musical Romance, turned out to be the 20-1 winner!  2 for 3 with a second, making money in every race.  Does it get any better?

Juvenile Fillies – Again I tried to take a stand against the favorite and this time I wasn’t nearly as successful.  My Miss Aurelia ran like the favorite and did a nice job.  I said that “if she can rate, she could be deadly”.  She did and she was.  My second choice ran second but my top choice, Northern Passion, finished up the track.  2 for 4.  .500 still isn’t bad.

Filly & Mare Turf – 27-1 Perfect Shirl wins and there was no way on God’s green Earth I would have had her.  My choice, favored Stacelita, gets shellacked and finishes second to last.  2 for 5 and the percentages are not looking near as good.  One race left and I’m going heavy on Royal Delta.

Filly & Mare Classic – Co favorite and my top choice Royal Delta sat off the pace, ran when asked and drew off to an easy victory.  She was 2-1, but I’ll take 2-1 all day long.  

Finishing stats for Day 1: 6 races, 3 wins and 1 second with a positive ROI on the day.  Makes me feel pretty good going into Day 2.

DAY 2

Marathon – My choice, Cease, was in a great spot all the way around and charged to the lead heading through the final turn.  And then it was over…he faded and 41-1 Afleet Again took the kickoff race.  I look back over the PPs and I STILL can’t find a reason to bet Afleet Again.  Race one – off the board.

Juvenile Turf – Finale was finished from jump.  He got off a bit slowly and rather than take back a bit and fall in behind the top 3 sprinters, it appeared as if Velasquez was indecisive on whether to tuck in or go.  By the time he decided to take back he was already five wide for nearly half the race and it was all over but the shouting as Finale predictably faded down the stretch.  Two races, two off the board finishes.

Sprint – Big Drama got away four wide and stayed there.  It looked as if jockey Ramon Dominguez thought better and tried to hold him a bit and track the top 3 but all it did was kill any chances he had of winning the race.  Three races in the books and top choice off the board in each.  Fortunately I do have Amazombie in the Pick 3.

Turf Sprint – I hate five furlong turf races but it turns out that it got me my first win of the day.  Regally Ransom was in good position throughout and when the time came he kicked on and was able to hold on for the win.  It wasn’t a big price win but a win nonetheless.

Dirt Mile – And we regress back again to a top choice fading out of contention when the real running started.  Prior to the race it was reported on ESPN that Steve Assmussen had real concerns about the stickiness of the track and Wilburn’s ability to handle it.  Turns out he was right.  In excellent position throughout, when it was time to run, Wilburn went the wrong way.  One for five today with only four left.

Turf – In the immortal words of Steven Tyler, “same old story, same old song and dance, my friend”.  Await the Dawn set the pace and showed that his Arc mess was exactly where he is right now.  Second choice Sea Moon, and my wager at post time, was able to stay up for second and made a bit of money, but the only choice that matters is the public one, and it was a dog.  Insult to injury: had all Euro tris and supers and Brilliant Speed blows up those wagers as well.  Stay tuned for Union Rags, Gio Ponti and Havre de Grace to spit the bit in the lane as well.  I hate days like this one.  Six in the books and only one winner.

Juvenile – Box it and we got the exacta and trifecta but the straight up win was disrupted by Javier Castallano being kept with Union Rags four to five wide throughout the entire race.  Otherwise, this race shaped up exactly like I had thought.  Creative Cause finishes third.  Cashed plenty in this race and that matters.  Batting average is not helped at all, though, and officially the count is 1 for 7 with a second and two races to go.  ROI, thanks to the $46 exacta and over $200 tri is excellent.

Mile – In a very messy stretch run, Goldikova failed in her attempt to win four in a row.  The winner was 64-1 Court Vision.  Unlike some other boxcar winners, I can see this one.  After some time off he closed like a freight train in his last and was eligible to improve.  He was beaten last out by the second place horse, Turallure, so if you liked one, you may have had them both with Turallure at 30-1.  THAT was a helluva exacta (over $2,000 for $2)!  Goldikova had some issues in the stretch and probably should have been disqualified but she got the superstar call (think smaller strike zone for superstar hitters or Peyton Manning getting more roughing the passer calls) and stayed up for third.  I don’t blame them for making the non-call.  It was close enough to let it go, though with my money across the board on Gio Ponti and the two big longshots finishing 1-2, I probably would have got my money back on the show price as he finished fourth and stood to get moved up.  After all the drama, another off the board finish and the tally is 1 for 8 with a second.  Ugh.  On to the Classic.

Classic –  The buildup was all about Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace which I thought was silly since there was no way that Uncle Mo was going to get a mile and a quarter.  I did think that filly was something special, but when the lights were on and pressure cranked up she was as flat as a pancake.  She was in good position all the way around and was simply flat.  Mo was engaged early for about a mile, but when the real running began he went the wrong way.  The really impressive performance came from Game on Dude who shot to the front and only relinquished the lead in the final strides to Drosselmeyer.  Drosselmeyer and Court Vision are both Breeders’ Cup champions…go figure.  And the nightmare of a day concludes with only one winner in 9 races but thankfully the exotics in the Juvenile prevent the day from being an ROI disaster but I barely keep earnings positive – but at least it was positive.

DAY 1 – 6 races: 3 wins, 1 second

DAY 2 – 9 races: 1 win; 1 second

TOTAL: 15 races: 4 wins, 2 seconds.  26% win with 40 in the money.  Not great but the ROI with the exotic wagers was pretty good at a plus 27% of dollars wagered (every $100 wagered returned $127). Again, pick your spots and hammer it when you feel confident.  Don’t be afraid to pass – there is always another race!

I’m going to let the dust settle for a few days and then be back later in the week with some observations from the 2011 Breeders’ Cup.