Kentucky Derby Day Preview; Oaks Day Recap

My Oaks day started off frustrating, peaked and then was downhill from there.  The best thing I can say about it is that I didn't get shut out.  In the Edgewater (QUALITY ROCKS) and the La Troienne (SHEER DRAMA) I finished 2nd.  In a thrilling Alysheba, if it wasn't for a Herculean effort by PROTONICO to fight back after being headed in deep stretch to win, I would have had my 3rd place finish in a row. 

I took stabs with longer shots in the Turf Sprint (CHANNEL MARKER) and the Eight Belles (EKATI'S PHAETON) and finished off the board in both. 

In the Oaks, I'M A CHATTERBOX left herself too much to do and, though she closed adroitly, it was too little, too late and she finished 3rd, behind the impressive LOVELY MARIA and long shot SHOOK UP.

The final stat line: 6 races - 1 win, 2 places, 1 third for my top choices.

 

DERBY DAY

This may be the hardest Derby I’ve ever analyzed.  Judging from my highly publicized track record (1 for ever) you’d think they were ALL unbearably hard, but this one was brutal.  I’ll admit, right now as I type this up at lunch at an Italian restaurant in Mauston, WI I STILL have no idea who my final Derby selection will be.  Before that, though, I CAN go ahead and give the thumbnails for my Hello Race Fans selections on the undercard.  By the time you read the Derby pick, I would have returned home and taken my stab!

PAT DAY MILE

COMPETITIVE EDGE is the big favorite in this one and while I really like him in here, it’s hard to like him at 6/5.  Especially since he doesn’t seem to tower over this field of 8.  The Pletcher trainee is undefeated and really hasn’t done anything wrong, but is liable to get hooked early by the likes of HILBILLY ROYALTY and GIMME DA LUTE.  The race seems to set up very nicely for LORD NELSON and I look for him to take it late.

AMERICAN TURF

A large field with no clear favorite so I’m going with one that hasn’t disappointed anyone yet: GRANNY’S KITTEN.  This Ramsey homebred had a very professional debut at two and now makes his 3-year old debut here.  His work pattern is solid and Maker is a fair 17% off a layoff.  Admittedly he’ll be a price but I felt this was a race to take a stab.

The scratch of GRANNY'S KITTEN made me re-evaluate the race and I landed upon NUN THE LESS.  Sure, it's a step up but this isn't exactly the Derby group going here and he's a Minnesota owned horse.  He should track well and if the race sets up right he could be right there at the end.

HUMANA DISTAFF

The shortest priced favorite of the day should be JUDY THE BEAUTY in here and I’m not going to try and get cute and beat her.  She stands over this field and should win it with ease.

DISTAFF TURF MILE

A nice, big, betable field in here.  There are several to make a case for, but I went with SANDIVA.  She never seemed to get untracked in the US after her arrival until she won at 9/2 in a Gulfstream overnight stake.  She then stepped up in the Grade 3 Suwanee River and won again.  She just got nipped at the end of the Grade 2 Honey Fox last out by Lady Lara.  While she may prefer a little longer, a second straight shot at a flat mile should be more to her liking and I’m hoping she turns the tables on her rival.

THE CHURCHILL DOWNS

BAYERN or PRIVATE ZONE.  PRIVATE ZONE or BAYERN.  Which way to go??  How about PANTS ON FIRE?  The two top choices as well as C. ZEE and BREWING should all want a piece of what’s going on up front in the 7 furlong sprint.  PANTS ON FIRE should be perfectly positioned to take advantage of the pace scenario, sitting right behind the leaders and building off of his 2015 debut win in the Sir Shakleton.  With the two favorites behind him, we should get a nice price as well.

TURF CLASSIC

We have a girl against the boys in the Turf Classic with STEPHANIE’S KITTEN tangling with FINNEGAN’S WAKE among others in here.  The problem for both of them is lack of pace.  No one is really going to want to go in this group…except for CHOCOLATE RIDE.  Joe Talamo has already proven that he can rate CHOCOLATE RIDE and he has 2 gate to wire wins in his last two races – both graded stakes going a mile and an eighth.  This is a tall order but if no one goes out to challenge, Talamo will control the pace again and we’ll win with double digit odds.

KENTUCKY DERBY

This was one hell of an exercise.  I started by eliminating those, in my view, that really didn’t stand a chance to win the race.  I was able to clear half the field but then again, that left half the field.  I read articles, watched replays and listened to the radio and what I learned is that with this Derby group I can be easily swayed.  Every ‘expert’ with an opinion could sway me.

Here is why AMERICAN PHAROAH can’t lose.  Okay, I buy that.

Here is why his stablemate DORTMUND will win.  Okay, I’m in.

No horse that hasn’t run as a 2-year old has won the Derby since Columbus crossed the ocean.  BUT…here is why MATERIALITY can break that streak.  Sounds good!

And on…and on…and on.

It seems as if we have a subset in the race of closely matched, very good horses with differing running styles and that, for the most part, prepped in different locations coming together for the first time to try something that none of them have yet: a mile and a quarter race with 150,000 people screaming at them every inch of the way.
The reality probably is that by the time Saratoga and Del Mar are finished up we’ll have a much better indication of what this crop is like.  Will there be a super horse? Is this the best group of 3-year olds since [insert favorite crop year here]? Have a few separated themselves from the rest?  Do we have a rivalry like AFFIRMED and ALYDAR?  All these questions will be answered then. Now we need to pick the Derby and start answering the questions.

My choice is FROSTED.

He was a solid and promising 2-year old, finishing 2^nd in the Grade 2 Remsen before heading to the bench but then couldn’t get untracked as a 3.  His Holy Bull effort was decent by he was soundly defeated by UPSTART.  In the Fountain of Youth he looked very strong until he faded back to 4^th in the lane.  He was sent off to undergo a throat procedure which was designed to help his breathing from an occasional displacement of the soft palate. If I get any deeper, I’m lost…net/net: he was breathing better under the stress of exercise.

His first race with the new and improved breathing system was a strong closing win in the Wood Memorial to win by two while posting his best lifetime Beyer Speed Figure (103).  Reunited with Joel Rosario for the Derby, Frosted should be able to get decent position while breaking from the 15 spot and shouldn’t have too much work to do when the real running starts.  He should be able to get the mile and a quarter, giving trainer Kiaran McLaughlin his first Derby win in his 5^th start.

 

Triple Crown is Supposed to Be Hard

By now we’ve all heard Steve Coburn’s ranting about the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  I’m not going to weigh in if he was right or wrong in reacting the way he did.  This is an emotional game and when you’re that vested in a horse you tend to lose focus and judgment.  Besides, there are a myriad of responses to his ranting already.

My beef comes with all those that are agreeing with him about the “cheaters” and “cowards” that allegedly wait until the Belmont just to try and upset the apple cart; that only those that start in all three races should be able to run in all three races; that if we’re ever going to see a Triple Crown again something has to change.

I guess my first question is a simple one: why?

This is supposed to be hard.  To quote Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own, “It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The "hard" is what makes it great.”

Is the goal to just have another Triple Crown winner?  At all costs?  At cheapening the accomplishment?  If you run each race the first Saturday of May, June and July, respectively, doesn’t the Crown lose its luster?

How does it not?

Three races in five weeks, two of which take these 3-year olds further than they ever have gone before – you win those and you’re not merely good; nor are you great; you are legend.  And that’s what a Triple Crown winner should be: legendary.

There is also a lot of hang-wringing about all the “new shooters” in the Belmont that, like I mentioned, are supposedly only in the race to upset the apple cart.  As an owner I can tell you this right now: if I had a graded stakes quality animal that could run all day but either wasn’t ready, or didn’t qualify, for the Derby, I would take my shot at the Belmont.  Not because I wouldn’t want to see the Triple Crown won but because I want MY horse to win a Classic. 

(Gregg Doyal of CBS Sports goes into great depth here on the new shooter issue: http://mweb.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24583468/california-chrome-owner-coburns-coward-rant-wrong-record-shows-it)

Winning the Belmont comes once in a horse’s life.  A mile and a half is a unique distance in American racing these days and if you can enhance the value of your horse and perhaps take your only chance to win a Classic, don’t you take it?  I tell you right now, I would.

Do you pass on the Belmont if you feel you have a real chance to win it to be a good sport?  No.   To me that is like a baseball team intentionally swinging and missing the last couple of innings of a perfect game just because it’s so rare that you just have to let it happen.  No, you don’t.  The competition; the ability to beat all comers – that’s what makes a legend.

Just because we may have bred ourselves out of being able to produce a Triple Crown winner doesn’t mean that we have to “dumb down” the series to make it attainable.  It means we need to get better.

Don’t change the series, change how you breed for it or train your horse for it.  It’s supposed to be hard.  The hard is what makes it great.

News and Notes or a Mishmash of Stuff

Thoughts on Chromer

I wasn't a believer initially.  Heading into the Derby I was not sure if he was really all that and he proved me wrong.  I jumped on the bandwagon after the Derby win, along with many others, and he certainly endorsed my confidence.

I didn't care much about the "slowness" of the Derby - there were 18 others that couldn't run faster.  The final time of a race can be influenced by many factors including the condition of the racetrack (the long break between the last dirt race and the Derby could have contributed to the 'dryness' of the track, some have speculated) and the strategy as the race developed.  I was afraid of the blistering pace in the Derby and it turned out that no one wanted to go.

Heading into the Preakness I was a bit afraid of the pace development again because if no one went in the Derby, then certainly someone would go in the Preakness.  There was some pace but Chrome ended up perfectly placed and was able to charge home.

I've actually avoided reading a lot of Tweets about the Preakness because I can already hear the complaining: ANOTHER perfect trip; he'll never get a mile and half; etc.  We'll see.  I didn't think he'd get a mile and a quarter and perfect trips come from good rides by good jockeys on good horses - you make your own luck.

Personally, I'm going to unabashedly root for a Triple Crown, I think we could use it.

Ellie Preps

Elusive Edition is getting closer to her first start for us.  She's prepping okay.  She's had two timed works where she wasn't asked for much.  In her last she had a four furlong work and she walked off the track looking like she handled it just fine.  I wouldn't go so far as to say she wouldn't have been able to blow out a candle, but it was pretty close.  I'm reserving judgments until I see her really lay out.

There are quite a few fine 3-year old Minnesota bred fillies this year, one of the best in her own barn, Sky and Sea.  She's nominated to the Minnesota Oaks but we have to get rolling first and the anxiety may kill me!

Canterbury Club

The best way to follow the doings of the Canterbury Racing Club is to sign up to get the blog updates at canterburyracingclub.com but in a nutshell: we claimed filly Maryjean for $8,000 in a race she won impressively.  We're hoping to bring her back this weekend, up a notch or two, and see what we have.  Club membership closed at a record 202 people and we're still looking for another horse for the club as well.

Bourbonology

Bobo is working on the farm and will head over to the race track in a couple of weeks.  She'll need a couple of works in her but she is rounding into shape very well.  Hopefully we'll get a start out of her by mid-June and get her summer started quickly and successfully!

Mother and Son

Tabby Lane is doing great.  We've had her covered a few times by Doneraile Court but she's come up empty.  We gave it one last try the other day and we'll see.  If she doesn't take then she'll get the year off and we'll focus on George and getting him through year one.  I think his mix of Eastwood Dacat's speed and Tabby's stamina and soundness will get us a nice runner, not just a nice Minnesota bred - but we'll see in a couple of years!

That's all the news that's fit to print now.  It should be an interesting three weeks between now and the Belmont - thank goodness.

Derby and Supporting Stakes with HELLO RACE FANS

There are two ways to look at this year’s Derby: pick a favorite and just enjoy or try and dope out the exotics and cash a big ticket. This year Heather and I have gone back and forth for weeks and we can make a case for or against virtually every animal in the field.  Even now as I recap my picks for Hello Race Fans I STILL don’t know what I’m going to write below when I get to the Derby!  If it wasn't the Derby this race would be a pass for me, gambling wise.

As for the Hello Race Fans picks, I didn't embarrass myself, which is nice.  I whiffed in the La Toienne and the Turf Sprint (although if I had listened to Heather I wouldn't have - she nailed them both!).  Fiftyshadesofgold took the Eight Belles for me and, sadly, Will Take Charge looked like a very tired racehorse as he finished off the board.  I rallied in the Oaks, as did many, with the very impressive win by Untapable so I finished with only two wins of the five races but finished tied for 3rd with the inimitable Derek Brown with $10.20 in earnings.  We both trailed HRF's Laurie Ross (1 win but it was the pricey Moonshine Mullin at $15.80) and the winner, HRF co-founder Dana Byerly who had three wins and $18 in earnings.

On to Derby Day.

DISTAFF TURF MILE

Centre Court looks dominant and is cutting back to a distance where she has won two of three – and the one she didn’t win she had a very troubled trip.  I’m going to try and beat her with a first time graded stakes participant, Ready Signal.  She moved into stakes company for the first time two starts back in the Ten Palms at Gulfstream and she was able to get up at the wire to win by a nose.  Next up was another Gulfstream stake that she won with a little more comfort at a bit longer than today’s mile distance.  Now she’s taking on graded company for the first time.  Sure, it’s a big step up, but they all had a first one and with a morning line of 12-1, I’ll be rewarded handsomely if she can make the transition.

PICK: Ready Signal

HUMANA DISTAFF

I’ve tried to go against Judy the Beauty several times and she’s kicked me in the teeth every time.  There’s some speed in here, including the swift Midnight Lucky making her seasonal debut, as well as a couple of closers, but I love the way that Judy can stalk and I think, like She’s A Tiger on Friday, Lucky may need one before moving forward.

PICK: Judy the Beauty

THE AMERICAN TURF

Winner of the inaugural Shakopee Juvenile at my home track Canterbury Park, General Jack, is in here as is well regarded Iroquois winner Cleburne and fun named Big Bazinga.  I’m looking at the Todd Pletcher trainee, PIcozza.  Remarkably consistent at three, he finished a good second in the off-the-turf Transylvania last out though he had to hang on for dear life keep that place spot by neck.  I’d like to see him move up from that effort, especially heading back on the turf for this one.

PICK: Picozza

THE CHURCHILL DOWNS

There are a few I considered in here.  Delauney capped a six race winning streak when he captured this race last year. Falling Sky easily captured the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint at this distance earlier I the year.  Clearly Now beat older as a 3-year old in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler last fall.  My choice in here is Sahara Sky.  Great consistency and a just off the pace running style that should suit him well here, though I admit I would like to see a bit more early speed for him.

PICK: Sahara Sky

TURF CLASSIC

The question here is can 2-time horse of the year Wise Dan be beat?  And if you think he can, who is going to do it?  Kaigun is a possibility.  Second to Dan last out, he was gaining sharply before the wire and this time he has another furlong to run.  Seek Again, on the outside, is interesting to me.  A European import, he came to the US the end of last year and promptly took the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in her American debut.  This is his first start of 2014.  The only thing is that whatever Dan has had to do to win, he has done.  The only time he hasn’t was in the off-the-turf Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland where he still managed to finish 2^nd.  He loves a mile, for sure, but the extra eighth of a mile in this race last year was also his largest victory.

PICK:  Wise Dan

KENTUCKY DERBY

Well…here I am.  I should take a strong stand.  Puff out my chest and declare to the world why my choice will win.  Is California Chrome the monster he has shown in California or will he wilt if things don’t go his way?  Is there too much early speed in this race for anyone close to the pace to win?  Will the pace just not be as hot as everyone thinks and a gutsy colt like Wildcat Red digs in and takes it? 

I almost decided that what I was going to do is take my hometown hero, if you will, Wicked Strong.  Cheer for him and hope for the best but if he can’t win, I wouldn't sweat it either.  However I think that after Heather and I spent three hours trying to figure out the race, I had to do better than that.  My methodology was first to eliminate who I figured the pretenders were and then eliminate the horses that want to be on or near the lead.  That left me with four.  I handicapped the four horse race and then there was one.  My wager will be a four horse tri (12, 16, 18, 19) and see if I can catch boxcars at a minimal outlay.

PICK: Intense Holiday

Is Churchill on the Verge of a Fall?

First Churchill Downs flips off players with a hike in takeout rates then they make a spin move and flip off owners with the same bird by not providing even a minimal ticket allotment for owners running in graded stakes.  The last straw for me in this fortnight or so of Churchill’s money grab is lack of accommodation for a Hall of Fame jockey that brought some of the greatest memories in the sport to us: the snubbing of Ronnie Turcotte who, one could argue, gave more of himself to the game than most.

I’m not going to get into the specifics of each transgression, but you can read about each of them with these links:

Takeout - http://www.playersboycott.org/

Owner Seating - http://foxhillfarmstable.com/2014/04/28/churchill-made-an-irresponsible-mistake/

Turcotte - http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/84712/turcotte-issues-statement-against-churchill

I would offer these words of caution to the geniuses at CDI: keep biting the hand that feeds you and you’ll be wringing your OWN hands wondering what the hell happened.

I’ve been in the gaming industry for nearly 20 years now.  I’ve seen the rise and fall of casino companies as well as casino suppliers and there are a few things that the “falls” have had in common and Churchill Downs is already starting to exhibit some of the early signs of these behaviors.

Raising Takeout to Increase Revenue.  I’ve seen this at several major casino companies: tighten up the games a little bit and watch the revenue roll in.  And it works.  But it doesn’t work forever.  Players eventually know that there is something different.  They may not be able to say that the hold percentages have gone up (hold percentage to a slot machine is like takeout to racing), but they know one thing: I can’t seem to win anymore.  The weekly trip to the casino becomes twice monthly and then becomes once a month and then “only when we’re close” to, finally, not coming at all or finding a casino where they feel like they are winning.

Once large company’s justification was that it has such a great player loyalty program that people will keep on coming because of the great offers.  At some point the players realize that the free buffet or show cost them $300 and the quality of THOSE had gone down as well.  Now there are rumors that it is matter of when, not if, this company will declare bankruptcy.

Sure, CDI, you have Derby but if players don’t feel like they can win or that the facilities are becoming sub-standard (see CDI’s Fairgrounds issues below) they’ll stop coming and stop betting on your product.  And one thing horseplayers have that casino players don’t is a group like the Horseplayer’s Association of North America that can hasten things along.

Putting Dollars Over Sense.  The most analogous in gaming would be the cheapening of offers by casinos to players.  While apt (and occurring), I would compare this more to the big gaming supplier that changed management and decided that surest way to improve the bottom line was to cut staff, cut benefits and hire as cheaply as possible.  The arrogance was that the product was so good that casinos would HAVE to keep buying or leasing their product – regardless of the sales rep or customer support.

When competitors started to cut deals with customers, this company refused.  Again, it was an “our product is so good you HAVE to have it” attitude.  However, what ACTUALLY happened is that casinos moved on to other game suppliers.  Thousands of revenue share games were removed from casinos across the country, impacting the bottom line by tens of millions of dollars.  One casino outlined how their “better performing” games actually COST the property money.  Let me digress to illustrate.

In revenue share situations the casino and supplier share in the revenue of a game.  Traditionally this has been 80% for the casino and 20% for the manufacturer.  There are other models but this is the easiest to illustrate.

Big company A’s games made $800 a day: their 20% was $160 while the casino kept $640.

Company B’s games only made $700 a day.  However, they made a deal and capped their percentage at $50 a day, letting the casino keep the rest.

Sure, company A’s games were better performing, but company B’s games did two things: allowed the casino to keep $10 more per game per game AND reduced their operating budget expense by $90 a day per game.  This allowed the casino to spend more on upgrades and conversions and stretch their budget further while earning more money on a “lesser” performing game. 

Company A’s unwillingness to deal with their customers has led to more layoffs to try and stabilize profits.  The value that casinos were used to getting from Company A was erased by the lack of qualified and experienced people and the blindness of the new management to their lack of expertise.  As a result, market share has suffered and stock price has been stagnant for nearly five years.  What seemed like a good idea at first collapsed under its own shortsightedness.

Lack of Reinvestment. Talk to horsemen about the deplorable condition of the Churchill Downs backside.  Heather was shocked when she saw it several years ago and was amazed at how much nicer the backside at Canterbury is comparatively speaking.  Vendors, trainers and owners alike have all said basically the same thing to me at one time or another over the past year: Churchill Downs cares NOTHING about racing anymore.  CDI management may try and disagree, but if that’s what your core clientele perceive, then it is your reality.

The Louisiana Racing Commercial had to strong arm CDI in order to get improvements made to Fair Grounds Racetrack.  This is NOT a company looking to reinvest in its racing product.

A very large, independent, off-strip casino was once known for its well-appointed rooms and fabulous food choices.  It thrived and had a very loyal following.  It was sold to a mega company and things began to change.  The restaurant quality began to slide and several closed.  Friends of mine that were loyal customers were telling me that the rooms were in need of upgrading with dirty carpets, holes in the drapes and upholstery.  And, worst of all to them, they couldn’t seem to win anymore.  Sound familiar?

 

CDI may be starting to show these beginnings of demise if you look closely.  Unless the core issues are addressed the rosy earnings reports may last one more quarter but then begin to slowly slide.  Other astute and savvy operators will assault the chinks in the armor by providing better service – and opportunity - to owners, players and VIPs.   Players will vote with their wallets and chose other racing opportunities.  Casinos are a dime a dozen now so those patrons can walk even easier if they feel they aren’t getting a fair deal.  (And if CDI is gouging their horseplayers, can you imagine what their casino hold must be?) Owners and trainers will show their displeasure by racing elsewhere.

Will a prominent owner one day eschew the Derby because of the way they are being treated?  Who knows?  The Derby allure may be too strong for that.  But the rest of the racing season will be up for grabs.   Perhaps Pinnacle Entertainment will treat their horsemen better at the new Belterra Park (River Downs) and with enhanced purses, thanks to slots in Ohio, they may draw horsemen away.

Don’t be shortsighted Churchill.  There are other options and folks have already started looking.

Road to Kentucky - First Contest of 2014

Last week I took step one in reaching one of my goals for 2014: playing in some tournaments.  I signed up for the Canterbury Park "Road to Kentucky" contest - well, Heather pushed me into it...in a good way.  I had actually forgotten about it and she was the one to remind me and then made sure we entered.

The contest is relatively straightforward.  You play a single horse across the board in the designated races for that week.  Double points are awarded for "bonus" races that are the Kentucky Derby 2014 prep races.  Like I said, pretty straightforward.  There are winners for the week and there are overall winners as well.

Full disclosure before the recap: This was my first "live" contest.  I have played some online stuff, but never a live contest like this.

Last weekend the races were at Tampa Bay Downs and the bonus races were the Sam Davis and the Withers from Aqueduct. 

I'm not going to go through and recap race for race, but if you recall that my handicapping goal for the season was to score 40 percent winners at 7/2 or better, I am pleased to report that at least part of that goal was reached.  My Saturday winners were:

Race 1 - Arctican Breeze ($11.60)
Race 8 - Please Explain ($4.00)
Race 10 - Guys Reward ($31.60)
Race 11 - Stormy Pacific ($17.20)

My average win odds was 7-1 but the winning percentage was 30%.  I only missed the board in 3 races while the other 5 races I finished 2nd.  A $20 across the board wager on each of my selections would have yielded about a $700 profit (oh, if only I did...).  I'm okay missing on the win percentage if I can double my average win mutual!!

While proud of my showing, I only finished 13th out of 507 for the week - out of the weekly money.  I think this points to a couple of things:

1 - The handicappers at Canterbury are a pretty sharp bunch.  I don't know if I can do much better than that and I still couldn't crack the top 5.

2 - The bonus races are huge.  I only managed a 2nd in the Withers and with a very low price so I only doubled 48 points.  Not much of a help.  The winner of the Sam B Davis, however, was worth 780 points total and I missed it completely.  Even the place horse would have been worth 160 and would have moved me from 13th to 6th.

Now the overall contest is a marathon and not a sprint and consistency with the above results (admittedly hard to attain) would go a long way to sealing a victory, I'm just not sure if I can do much better than this!

Next up: Santa Anita tomorrow.  No worries, I won't recap every event and with Ellie back in training, a new claiming group almost full, Bourbonology looking to get started in about a month and Tabby foaling out in about 3 weeks, there will be a lot of horse action to get caught up on!

One Last Try Before the Breeders' Cup

As with the last two Classics, I was asked to participate as an "expert" on the Hello Race Fans race education site and provide my picks for the graded stakes on the Belmont card.  If you haven't visited Hello Race Fans, I suggest you take a look.  There is a lot of information for beginners there but some great information for seasoned vets as well.  It's finally a place you can send your friends when they ask you about racing and handicapping and you can be assured they will be getting first class information for first class sources.

Oaks/Derby weekend went okay.  I had 3 winners over the weekend which put me roughly in line with everyone else.  I had one on Oaks day, but at a shorter price than the others that had 1 and I had 2 on Derby Day, putting me 4th in the group.

Preakness weekend was a disaster.  I was 0-fer on Preakness Day, which I hate more than anything.  I'd have rather had one $2.10 winner just to have hit the board.  Now it's Belmont Day and time to get the picks up for the True North, Just a Game, Woody Stephens, Manhattan and the Belmont.  I had to go back and look at my win in the Breeders' Cup challenge just to feel good about myself again!

You can go over to the site to get my other picks (after noon on Saturday), but here is my synopsis of the Belmont.

I don't know if Revolutionary can get the distance but if he can last, he should be very tough here.  Freedom Child is getting a lot of wise guy talk but he's only won shaking loose on the lead and I don't know if he's going to be able to do that.  There is too much other early speed and you have to figure Repole/Pletcher didn't enter three because they all have a shot.  I think Midnight Taboo goes early and tries to set the stage for their filly, Unlimited Budget or, more likely, Overanalyze.

Contrary to popular belief, you don't need to be a deep closer in the Belmont, but if you can rate behind some pace you're in good shape. Because of that I think I forgive Orb's flat Preakness and look for him to revert to form. These aren't machines we're dealing with after all.  He could have had a bad day.  He had a great streak with solid wins in the Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and the Derby.  A letdown was not out of the question and at a new racetrack, with a different surface and the #1 post...I can draw a line through the race and give him another shot in here.

My super:

Orb, Oxbow, Overanalyze, Revolutionary (I wish I could pick an "All O" super!)

139th Kentucky Derby: 0-139?

It’s Derby time again and for the 139^th year in a row I will try and end my streak of futility.  Of course it is not that long, but it sure feels like it has been.  For expert selections (and mine) for the Derby and undercard visit the outstanding fan education site Hello Race Fans.  Let’s take a brief look at the field:

Black Onyx (Breen/Bravo) – SCRATCH (escapes the jinx)

Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens): Hasn’t won since the Grade 3 LeComte early in the year and was beaten by several in here at the Arkansas Derby.  Had traffic trouble there but don’t expect anything less in Louisville!

Revolutionary (Pletcher/Borel): Sporting a 3-race winning streak including wins in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Grade 3 Withers.  Should have some distance limitations but has been winning with each consecutive stretch out.

Golden Soul (Stewart/Albarado): Since Mine That Bird I’ve tried to make it a point of never counting any horse out, but it’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Golden Soul wins this race.

Normandy Invasion (Brown/Castellano): A hip pick after a rapidly closing 2^nd to Verrazano in the Grade 1 Wood but has not had his nose on the wire first since his maiden score at 2.

My Lute (Amoss/Napravnik): Very game in battling Revolutionary to the wire at the Fairgrounds.  Most impressive win was in an Optional Claimer but has fallen short against better.

Giant Finish (Dutrow/Espinoza): Only has run against state breds and over synthetic.  Just don’t see it.

Goldencents (O’Neill/Krigger): Doug O’Neill brings in another relatively unknown jockey to the Derby aboard a colt that impressively won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  A mile and a quarter might be much for this guy and he’s going to want to be on or near the lead and it’ll be tough to slow down a 19 horse field.  Mud may help this one.

Overanalyze (Pletcher/Bejarano): Something I am definitely doing after years of futility…  Impressive winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after disappointing in the Gotham.  Seems to have found a pilot he can bond with in Bejarano.

Palace Malice (Pletcher/Smith): Another trendy pick who hasn’t won since his maiden.  Came very close in the Blue Grass, but that was over the synthetic surface.  May be a better turfer than dirt.

Lines of Battle (O’Brien/Moore):  Winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby, the distance won’t be an issue but the crowded field and the dirt surface may be.

Itsmyluckyday (Plesa/Trujillo): After impressive back to back wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Grade 3 Holy Bull, the colt was away for nearly 2 months before coming up short in the Grade 1 Florida Derby showcasing what could be some distance limitations.

Falling Sky (Terranova/Saez): After upsetting the field in the Sam Davis at Tampa, the colt was well beaten by many of these in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby.

Verrazano (Pletcher/Velazquez): Undefeated frontrunner has really yet to be challenged.  Seemed to have been nearly caught by Normandy Invasion in the Wood but remained unbeaten.  Going to be tough to grab the lead from the 14 hole and may need to navigate some unfamiliar territory to win the race.

Charming Kitten (Pletcher/Prado): Yet another Pletcher entry, this one’s only win since its maiden was a score in the race named for his sire.  Recipient of the Sandra Swan top choice and she has been scary with longshots – don’t overlook; even if it is his first time on dirt.

Orb (McGaughey/Rosario): Winner of four in a row in impressive fashion.  Had to navigate traffic and charge from off the pace – all skills he will need Saturday afternoon.  Should be able to run whether it’s wet or dry.  Deserved ML favorite.

Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court): Won the Grade 2 Rebel at 28-1 to get into the field and has been off since that effort on March 16.  Been working consistently but can’t say brilliantly.

Frac Daddy (McPeek/Lebron): Another eligible for a non-winners of one race other than maiden allowance.  Hasn’t shown enough against this type to figure.

Java’s War (McPeek/Leparoux): Grade 1 Blue Grass winner appears to better on synthetic/grass.

Vyjack (Rodriguez/Gomez): Winner of four in a row until running into Verrazano in the Wood, a mile and a quarter doesn’t appear to be his best distance and it will be difficult to track the pace from post position 20.

Who gets Ted’s kiss of death this year?  Depending upon who you talk to this is either a two horse race between Verrazano and Orb or a wide open affair with God knows who winning.  I don’t think that this is as wide open as the Oaks appeared to be and I also feel that Orb and Verrazano are the class of this group.  However, and this is a big however, there are 17 other horses in the race – all going further than they have ever gone before – and there will be traffic and there will be trouble.  Who survives the trouble and can get the distance wins the race.

I am a fan of not betting a horse that is being asked to do something that it’s never done before.  In this case we have 19 horses all being asked to go a mile and a quarter: level playing field.  Loads of potential traffic issues: that narrows things down a bit.  Despite all the trendy upset picks like Oxbow, Normandy Invasion and even Palace Malice, I really do think that Orb and Verrazano are the two most talented horses in the gate but only one of them has dealt with trouble, dug in and overcame it: My apologies, Heather...this year's choice is Orb

1.      Orb        2. Verrazano       3. Charming Kitten           4. Revolutionary

Canterbury Opens and Things are Looking Up

Friday marks the start of the Canterbury Park racing season – the Saratoga of the Midwest, if you will.  Okay, that’s probably overstating it quite a bit, but the start of live racing ushers in summer in the North Star State and with temperatures predicted to be in the upper 80’s on Friday it certainly will feel the part.

The feeling on the backstretch and among owners is optimistic and that is a huge change from past years.  In the five years that I’ve been involved in Minnesota racing each year always started with lamenting of reduced purses, fear of the future and even a reduction in racing days.  Opening day used to coincide with the Kentucky Derby but now its Preakness weekend.  Last year the racing community was ravaged by a state shutdown that, for three weeks, ceased racing, simulcasting and card operations at the track.  With purse levels contingent on previous year’s revenue the 2011 season ended with an eye on how long the track would survive; all this for an operation that has logged year over year average attendance records for the last several years. There were questions on what the future was going to bring – without a racino, Minnesota racing was going to be dead in the water in three years.

The legislative session started with some hope that 2012 was going to be the year that racino finally passed – either as part of a Vikings stadium package or to repay the money for schools that was pulled forward to balance the budget.  Track President Randy Sampson and Equine Development Coalition of Minnesota President and Canterbury Park Hall of Fame breeder Jeff Hilger worked tirelessly to try and bring that to fruition while the Native American casino coalition worked just as hard to protect their business interests.  The only winners in that scenario? The lawyers and lobbyists.

After a suggestion from Governor Mark Dayton that the track try to talk directly to the Tribes, Sampson and Hilger reached out and Mdewakanton Sioux chair Stanley Crooks and the Minnesota Indian Gaming Association reached back.  As a result, the two sides were able to come up with an historic agreement that resulted in a bill that was signed by the governor that breathed life into racing and, more importantly, started a dialogue between the racing and casino interests that could have positive repercussions for years to come (details here).

REDUCED TAKEOUT ON PICK 3 & 4

For those that don’t focus on the wagering part of the business, “takeout” is the percentage of each wager that is removed from the pool to pay the state, horsemen, track, etc before it is paid back to patrons in the form of winning bets.  Traditionally racing has had a very high takeout and that makes a tough game to beat even tougher.  Last year these multi-race wagers carried a takeout of 23%.  In a tremendously pro-player action, Canterbury Park announced this past week that these wagers will only carry a 14% takeout – a huge reduction and a great gesture to horseplayers.

“We’re excited to offer our players the lowest Pick 4 takeout rate and the second-lowest Pick 3 takeout rate in North America,” Canterbury Park President Randy Sampson said. “We understand that players are price-sensitive and have many options as to where to bet their wagering dollar. It’s our hope that this lower takeout makes Canterbury Park the place to play horizontal wagers.”

The player advocacy group, Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA), took notice and made the decision the focal point of a blog post the other day, asking players to give Canterbury a look when deciding where to play.  

HANA and others have argued that lowering takeout and making the game more profitable for players will, in turn, generate more handle that is the lifeblood of the industry.  Ultimately greater increases in handle would raise purses and create a business environment where owners can do more than hope to just break even.

However lowering takeout is only the first step toward making this move a successful one.  The second step is having full and competitive fields. The wager needs to have the potential for high payouts to draw attention and fields of 6 won’t get that job done.  Nice 9 or 10 horse fields over the three or four races gives players the potential for four figure payouts and will start drawing the wagering dollars from across the country.

Day one of racing Friday night features field sizes of 7, 6, 8, 10, 10, 6, 8, 11.  It’s a mixed start with a couple of six horse fields, but both Pick 4 sequences have two races with 10 or more entries – not perfect, but a really nice start.  Hopefully players take notice – there’s literally no better place to play these wagers in the country.

FRIDAY NIGHT OPENER

Friday night post time is 7 PM with eight races scheduled.  The first stakes races of the season are on tap on Saturday with the 10,000 Lakes and Lady Slipper Stakes for Minnesota breds racing for a purse of $35,000.  With no possibility of a state shutdown and the very real possibility of increased purses and a cooperative relationship with the Native American community, it looks to be the start of one of the best seasons in recent memory.

See you there!

Derby, Oaks and Canterbury Musings

Kentucky Derby

I supposed I should start with the obvious – once again I go down in flames in picking the Kentucky Derby winner.  Alpha was simply a no show around the racetrack.  When his connections try to figure out what went wrong, someone should tell them, “Grevelis picked you” and just shake their head slowly. 

I made the mistake of clearly underestimating jockey Mario Gutierrez.  In the blog I openly questioned whether the unheralded young rider in his first Derby had what it takes to pilot home I’ll Have Another on that large a stage – and discounted the horse’s chance because of it.  I was clearly wrong. The horse has clearly stepped up from two to three, ran great preps, should have had no problem with the distance and his running style was well suited to the race.  I questioned the pilot and young Gutierrez beat me down with his whip.  Good for him – it was a good ride and I’m happy for him.

Doug O’Neill had the winner prepped perfectly and I could hear the cheering from my California friends all the way up in the Canterbury press box.  Several of the horses that I had a minority interest in that ran in California a few years back were trained by O’Neill.  I met him on one occasion in the walking ring at Santa Anita and he was gracious, warm and unassuming. Friends who have a closer relationship with him speak in much more glowing terms.  Both he and Gutierrez will need to hold on tight and put on some sunglasses because it is going to be quite a ride heading into the Preakness and the spotlight is going to be very bright.

Most of the buzz after the race was about Bodemeister and while no one wants to discount the Derby winner, setting those fractions up front and still managing to hold on to second was nothing short of amazing.  Of the others that were close to that early pace, Hansen held on the best and he faded to ninth while the others finished 15^th, 19^th and 20^th while Bodemeister was only beaten one and a half lengths.  That Arkansas Derby was no fluke and he made a believer out of me.

Kentucky Oaks

The race set up in the exact opposite way I envisioned.  I know when the half mile split came up in :47.47 that there was no way Summer Applause could close into that pace.  I was surprised that Broadway’s Alibi couldn’t hold the lead, but Believe You Can certainly believed she could as she ground out the victory down the lane over a very game Broadway Alibi.  With The top five including Grace Hall and On Fire Baby, it looks like the filly crop is nearly as deep as the males.  It’s shaping up to be a great 2012 racing season.

Picking Winners

Over at Hello Race Fans, my guest shot at taking on the best in Graded Stakes races was less than impressive.  I whiffed on all 11 stakes (though I DID have some company there, so I didn’t feel too badly) while ending up with 3 seconds and 2 thirds.  Not one of my more dazzling performances and, unlike Mario Gutierrez, I wilted under the glare of the spotlight.  I have no excuses and I will do better on Black Eyed Susan/Preakness weekend…if I managed to get invited back!

Canterbury Park

Governor Mark Dayton signed the purse enhancement bill the other day so it’s now official, there will be some purse relief for horsemen, though it looks like the effects will not be felt until next season.  That may appear to be a bit of a letdown, but given that current year revenue generates the following year’s purses, it makes a whole lot of sense.  While purses will not go through the roof, they should stabilize and return to levels that we haven’t seen in a few years.  It will give owners and trainers a fighting chance to recoup their investments and make some money and still race at one of the most horsemen friendly facilities in the United States.

The MTA New Owner's Seminar had a nice turnout on Saturday.  I was privileged to speak about racing partnerships and the mechanics of claiming.  Hopefully we didn't scare them away with the realities of the industry.  I always start these things with some sobering statistics geared to make them think about why they are getting into this game.  Expectations need to be realistic and going in thinking you're going to invest $200 and come away with several thousand is simply out of whack.  Once that's out of the way, I can relate the details of ownership and try to let folks know what the feeling is like when your horse crosses the wire first.  At the end, I hope that folks have a clear understanding of the realities and joys of the sport I love so much.

Live racing begins Preakness Day weekend and I’ve worked out a deal with a local trainer that many folks have been asking me for: a Canterbury only runner that can be “owned” for just the racing season.  It’s a two horse package where we would lease 50% of the horses while trainer owns the remaining 50%.  You can e-mail me for details but we would start as soon as the group was formed (ideally this coming week) and finish up on the last day of the meet, September 3^rd.  It should be inexpensive and fun way to have action all season while getting a taste of the ownership experience.