It’s Derby time again and for the 139th year in a
row I will try and end my streak of futility.
Of course it is not that long, but it sure feels like it has been. For expert selections (and mine) for the Derby and undercard visit the outstanding fan education site Hello Race Fans. Let’s take a brief look at the field:
Black Onyx (Breen/Bravo) – SCRATCH (escapes the jinx)
Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens): Hasn’t won since the Grade 3 LeComte
early in the year and was beaten by several in here at the Arkansas Derby. Had traffic trouble there but don’t expect
anything less in Louisville!
Revolutionary (Pletcher/Borel): Sporting a 3-race winning
streak including wins in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Grade 3 Withers. Should have some distance limitations but has
been winning with each consecutive stretch out.
Golden Soul (Stewart/Albarado): Since Mine That Bird I’ve
tried to make it a point of never counting any horse out, but it’s hard for me
to envision a scenario where Golden Soul wins this race.
Normandy Invasion (Brown/Castellano): A hip pick after a
rapidly closing 2nd to Verrazano in the Grade 1 Wood but has not had
his nose on the wire first since his maiden score at 2.
My Lute (Amoss/Napravnik): Very game in battling
Revolutionary to the wire at the Fairgrounds.
Most impressive win was in an Optional Claimer but has fallen short
against better.
Giant Finish (Dutrow/Espinoza): Only has run against state
breds and over synthetic. Just don’t see
it.
Goldencents (O’Neill/Krigger): Doug O’Neill brings in
another relatively unknown jockey to the Derby aboard a colt that impressively
won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. A
mile and a quarter might be much for this guy and he’s going to want to be on
or near the lead and it’ll be tough to slow down a 19 horse field. Mud may help this one.
Overanalyze (Pletcher/Bejarano): Something I am definitely
doing after years of futility…
Impressive winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after disappointing in
the Gotham. Seems to have found a pilot
he can bond with in Bejarano.
Palace Malice (Pletcher/Smith): Another trendy pick who hasn’t
won since his maiden. Came very close in
the Blue Grass, but that was over the synthetic surface. May be a better turfer than dirt.
Lines of Battle (O’Brien/Moore): Winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby, the distance
won’t be an issue but the crowded field and the dirt surface may be.
Itsmyluckyday (Plesa/Trujillo): After impressive back to
back wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Grade 3 Holy Bull, the colt was away
for nearly 2 months before coming up short in the Grade 1 Florida Derby
showcasing what could be some distance limitations.
Falling Sky (Terranova/Saez): After upsetting the field in
the Sam Davis at Tampa, the colt was well beaten by many of these in the Tampa
Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby.
Verrazano (Pletcher/Velazquez): Undefeated frontrunner has
really yet to be challenged. Seemed to
have been nearly caught by Normandy Invasion in the Wood but remained
unbeaten. Going to be tough to grab the
lead from the 14 hole and may need to navigate some unfamiliar territory to win
the race.
Charming Kitten (Pletcher/Prado): Yet another Pletcher
entry, this one’s only win since its maiden was a score in the race named for
his sire. Recipient of the Sandra Swan
top choice and she has been scary with longshots – don’t overlook; even if it
is his first time on dirt.
Orb (McGaughey/Rosario): Winner of four in a row in
impressive fashion. Had to navigate traffic
and charge from off the pace – all skills he will need Saturday afternoon. Should be able to run whether it’s wet or
dry. Deserved ML favorite.
Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court): Won the Grade 2 Rebel at
28-1 to get into the field and has been off since that effort on March 16. Been working consistently but can’t say
brilliantly.
Frac Daddy (McPeek/Lebron): Another eligible for a
non-winners of one race other than maiden allowance. Hasn’t shown enough against this type to figure.
Java’s War (McPeek/Leparoux): Grade 1 Blue Grass winner
appears to better on synthetic/grass.
Vyjack (Rodriguez/Gomez): Winner of four in a row until
running into Verrazano in the Wood, a mile and a quarter doesn’t appear to be
his best distance and it will be difficult to track the pace from post position
20.
Who gets Ted’s kiss of death this year? Depending upon who you talk to this is either
a two horse race between Verrazano and Orb or a wide open affair with God knows
who winning. I don’t think that this is
as wide open as the Oaks appeared to be and I also feel that Orb and Verrazano
are the class of this group. However,
and this is a big however, there are 17 other horses in the race – all going
further than they have ever gone before – and there will be traffic and there
will be trouble. Who survives the
trouble and can get the distance wins the race.
I am a fan of not betting a horse that is being asked to do
something that it’s never done before.
In this case we have 19 horses all being asked to go a mile and a
quarter: level playing field. Loads of
potential traffic issues: that narrows things down a bit. Despite all the trendy upset picks like
Oxbow, Normandy Invasion and even Palace Malice, I really do think that Orb and
Verrazano are the two most talented horses in the gate but only one of them has
dealt with trouble, dug in and overcame it: My apologies, Heather...this year's choice is Orb
1.
Orb 2.
Verrazano 3. Charming Kitten 4. Revolutionary
1 comment:
Ding dong the witch is dead.
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