One Last Try Before the Breeders' Cup

As with the last two Classics, I was asked to participate as an "expert" on the Hello Race Fans race education site and provide my picks for the graded stakes on the Belmont card.  If you haven't visited Hello Race Fans, I suggest you take a look.  There is a lot of information for beginners there but some great information for seasoned vets as well.  It's finally a place you can send your friends when they ask you about racing and handicapping and you can be assured they will be getting first class information for first class sources.

Oaks/Derby weekend went okay.  I had 3 winners over the weekend which put me roughly in line with everyone else.  I had one on Oaks day, but at a shorter price than the others that had 1 and I had 2 on Derby Day, putting me 4th in the group.

Preakness weekend was a disaster.  I was 0-fer on Preakness Day, which I hate more than anything.  I'd have rather had one $2.10 winner just to have hit the board.  Now it's Belmont Day and time to get the picks up for the True North, Just a Game, Woody Stephens, Manhattan and the Belmont.  I had to go back and look at my win in the Breeders' Cup challenge just to feel good about myself again!

You can go over to the site to get my other picks (after noon on Saturday), but here is my synopsis of the Belmont.

I don't know if Revolutionary can get the distance but if he can last, he should be very tough here.  Freedom Child is getting a lot of wise guy talk but he's only won shaking loose on the lead and I don't know if he's going to be able to do that.  There is too much other early speed and you have to figure Repole/Pletcher didn't enter three because they all have a shot.  I think Midnight Taboo goes early and tries to set the stage for their filly, Unlimited Budget or, more likely, Overanalyze.

Contrary to popular belief, you don't need to be a deep closer in the Belmont, but if you can rate behind some pace you're in good shape. Because of that I think I forgive Orb's flat Preakness and look for him to revert to form. These aren't machines we're dealing with after all.  He could have had a bad day.  He had a great streak with solid wins in the Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and the Derby.  A letdown was not out of the question and at a new racetrack, with a different surface and the #1 post...I can draw a line through the race and give him another shot in here.

My super:

Orb, Oxbow, Overanalyze, Revolutionary (I wish I could pick an "All O" super!)

139th Kentucky Derby: 0-139?

It’s Derby time again and for the 139^th year in a row I will try and end my streak of futility.  Of course it is not that long, but it sure feels like it has been.  For expert selections (and mine) for the Derby and undercard visit the outstanding fan education site Hello Race Fans.  Let’s take a brief look at the field:

Black Onyx (Breen/Bravo) – SCRATCH (escapes the jinx)

Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens): Hasn’t won since the Grade 3 LeComte early in the year and was beaten by several in here at the Arkansas Derby.  Had traffic trouble there but don’t expect anything less in Louisville!

Revolutionary (Pletcher/Borel): Sporting a 3-race winning streak including wins in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Grade 3 Withers.  Should have some distance limitations but has been winning with each consecutive stretch out.

Golden Soul (Stewart/Albarado): Since Mine That Bird I’ve tried to make it a point of never counting any horse out, but it’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Golden Soul wins this race.

Normandy Invasion (Brown/Castellano): A hip pick after a rapidly closing 2^nd to Verrazano in the Grade 1 Wood but has not had his nose on the wire first since his maiden score at 2.

My Lute (Amoss/Napravnik): Very game in battling Revolutionary to the wire at the Fairgrounds.  Most impressive win was in an Optional Claimer but has fallen short against better.

Giant Finish (Dutrow/Espinoza): Only has run against state breds and over synthetic.  Just don’t see it.

Goldencents (O’Neill/Krigger): Doug O’Neill brings in another relatively unknown jockey to the Derby aboard a colt that impressively won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  A mile and a quarter might be much for this guy and he’s going to want to be on or near the lead and it’ll be tough to slow down a 19 horse field.  Mud may help this one.

Overanalyze (Pletcher/Bejarano): Something I am definitely doing after years of futility…  Impressive winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after disappointing in the Gotham.  Seems to have found a pilot he can bond with in Bejarano.

Palace Malice (Pletcher/Smith): Another trendy pick who hasn’t won since his maiden.  Came very close in the Blue Grass, but that was over the synthetic surface.  May be a better turfer than dirt.

Lines of Battle (O’Brien/Moore):  Winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby, the distance won’t be an issue but the crowded field and the dirt surface may be.

Itsmyluckyday (Plesa/Trujillo): After impressive back to back wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Grade 3 Holy Bull, the colt was away for nearly 2 months before coming up short in the Grade 1 Florida Derby showcasing what could be some distance limitations.

Falling Sky (Terranova/Saez): After upsetting the field in the Sam Davis at Tampa, the colt was well beaten by many of these in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby.

Verrazano (Pletcher/Velazquez): Undefeated frontrunner has really yet to be challenged.  Seemed to have been nearly caught by Normandy Invasion in the Wood but remained unbeaten.  Going to be tough to grab the lead from the 14 hole and may need to navigate some unfamiliar territory to win the race.

Charming Kitten (Pletcher/Prado): Yet another Pletcher entry, this one’s only win since its maiden was a score in the race named for his sire.  Recipient of the Sandra Swan top choice and she has been scary with longshots – don’t overlook; even if it is his first time on dirt.

Orb (McGaughey/Rosario): Winner of four in a row in impressive fashion.  Had to navigate traffic and charge from off the pace – all skills he will need Saturday afternoon.  Should be able to run whether it’s wet or dry.  Deserved ML favorite.

Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court): Won the Grade 2 Rebel at 28-1 to get into the field and has been off since that effort on March 16.  Been working consistently but can’t say brilliantly.

Frac Daddy (McPeek/Lebron): Another eligible for a non-winners of one race other than maiden allowance.  Hasn’t shown enough against this type to figure.

Java’s War (McPeek/Leparoux): Grade 1 Blue Grass winner appears to better on synthetic/grass.

Vyjack (Rodriguez/Gomez): Winner of four in a row until running into Verrazano in the Wood, a mile and a quarter doesn’t appear to be his best distance and it will be difficult to track the pace from post position 20.

Who gets Ted’s kiss of death this year?  Depending upon who you talk to this is either a two horse race between Verrazano and Orb or a wide open affair with God knows who winning.  I don’t think that this is as wide open as the Oaks appeared to be and I also feel that Orb and Verrazano are the class of this group.  However, and this is a big however, there are 17 other horses in the race – all going further than they have ever gone before – and there will be traffic and there will be trouble.  Who survives the trouble and can get the distance wins the race.

I am a fan of not betting a horse that is being asked to do something that it’s never done before.  In this case we have 19 horses all being asked to go a mile and a quarter: level playing field.  Loads of potential traffic issues: that narrows things down a bit.  Despite all the trendy upset picks like Oxbow, Normandy Invasion and even Palace Malice, I really do think that Orb and Verrazano are the two most talented horses in the gate but only one of them has dealt with trouble, dug in and overcame it: My apologies, Heather...this year's choice is Orb

1.      Orb        2. Verrazano       3. Charming Kitten           4. Revolutionary