Triple Crown is Supposed to Be Hard

By now we’ve all heard Steve Coburn’s ranting about the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  I’m not going to weigh in if he was right or wrong in reacting the way he did.  This is an emotional game and when you’re that vested in a horse you tend to lose focus and judgment.  Besides, there are a myriad of responses to his ranting already.

My beef comes with all those that are agreeing with him about the “cheaters” and “cowards” that allegedly wait until the Belmont just to try and upset the apple cart; that only those that start in all three races should be able to run in all three races; that if we’re ever going to see a Triple Crown again something has to change.

I guess my first question is a simple one: why?

This is supposed to be hard.  To quote Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own, “It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The "hard" is what makes it great.”

Is the goal to just have another Triple Crown winner?  At all costs?  At cheapening the accomplishment?  If you run each race the first Saturday of May, June and July, respectively, doesn’t the Crown lose its luster?

How does it not?

Three races in five weeks, two of which take these 3-year olds further than they ever have gone before – you win those and you’re not merely good; nor are you great; you are legend.  And that’s what a Triple Crown winner should be: legendary.

There is also a lot of hang-wringing about all the “new shooters” in the Belmont that, like I mentioned, are supposedly only in the race to upset the apple cart.  As an owner I can tell you this right now: if I had a graded stakes quality animal that could run all day but either wasn’t ready, or didn’t qualify, for the Derby, I would take my shot at the Belmont.  Not because I wouldn’t want to see the Triple Crown won but because I want MY horse to win a Classic. 

(Gregg Doyal of CBS Sports goes into great depth here on the new shooter issue: http://mweb.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24583468/california-chrome-owner-coburns-coward-rant-wrong-record-shows-it)

Winning the Belmont comes once in a horse’s life.  A mile and a half is a unique distance in American racing these days and if you can enhance the value of your horse and perhaps take your only chance to win a Classic, don’t you take it?  I tell you right now, I would.

Do you pass on the Belmont if you feel you have a real chance to win it to be a good sport?  No.   To me that is like a baseball team intentionally swinging and missing the last couple of innings of a perfect game just because it’s so rare that you just have to let it happen.  No, you don’t.  The competition; the ability to beat all comers – that’s what makes a legend.

Just because we may have bred ourselves out of being able to produce a Triple Crown winner doesn’t mean that we have to “dumb down” the series to make it attainable.  It means we need to get better.

Don’t change the series, change how you breed for it or train your horse for it.  It’s supposed to be hard.  The hard is what makes it great.

News and Notes or a Mishmash of Stuff

Thoughts on Chromer

I wasn't a believer initially.  Heading into the Derby I was not sure if he was really all that and he proved me wrong.  I jumped on the bandwagon after the Derby win, along with many others, and he certainly endorsed my confidence.

I didn't care much about the "slowness" of the Derby - there were 18 others that couldn't run faster.  The final time of a race can be influenced by many factors including the condition of the racetrack (the long break between the last dirt race and the Derby could have contributed to the 'dryness' of the track, some have speculated) and the strategy as the race developed.  I was afraid of the blistering pace in the Derby and it turned out that no one wanted to go.

Heading into the Preakness I was a bit afraid of the pace development again because if no one went in the Derby, then certainly someone would go in the Preakness.  There was some pace but Chrome ended up perfectly placed and was able to charge home.

I've actually avoided reading a lot of Tweets about the Preakness because I can already hear the complaining: ANOTHER perfect trip; he'll never get a mile and half; etc.  We'll see.  I didn't think he'd get a mile and a quarter and perfect trips come from good rides by good jockeys on good horses - you make your own luck.

Personally, I'm going to unabashedly root for a Triple Crown, I think we could use it.

Ellie Preps

Elusive Edition is getting closer to her first start for us.  She's prepping okay.  She's had two timed works where she wasn't asked for much.  In her last she had a four furlong work and she walked off the track looking like she handled it just fine.  I wouldn't go so far as to say she wouldn't have been able to blow out a candle, but it was pretty close.  I'm reserving judgments until I see her really lay out.

There are quite a few fine 3-year old Minnesota bred fillies this year, one of the best in her own barn, Sky and Sea.  She's nominated to the Minnesota Oaks but we have to get rolling first and the anxiety may kill me!

Canterbury Club

The best way to follow the doings of the Canterbury Racing Club is to sign up to get the blog updates at canterburyracingclub.com but in a nutshell: we claimed filly Maryjean for $8,000 in a race she won impressively.  We're hoping to bring her back this weekend, up a notch or two, and see what we have.  Club membership closed at a record 202 people and we're still looking for another horse for the club as well.

Bourbonology

Bobo is working on the farm and will head over to the race track in a couple of weeks.  She'll need a couple of works in her but she is rounding into shape very well.  Hopefully we'll get a start out of her by mid-June and get her summer started quickly and successfully!

Mother and Son

Tabby Lane is doing great.  We've had her covered a few times by Doneraile Court but she's come up empty.  We gave it one last try the other day and we'll see.  If she doesn't take then she'll get the year off and we'll focus on George and getting him through year one.  I think his mix of Eastwood Dacat's speed and Tabby's stamina and soundness will get us a nice runner, not just a nice Minnesota bred - but we'll see in a couple of years!

That's all the news that's fit to print now.  It should be an interesting three weeks between now and the Belmont - thank goodness.

Rood & Riddle Press Release via Richard Eng

This is the content of  PR issued by Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital and featuring Dr. Larry Bramlage, one of the most respected equine practitioners in the world.  This was received by Richard Eng, racing columnist for the Las Vegas Review Journal and originally posted via his Facebook page.

It speaks for itself.

Reports on Racehorse Injury Rates, Medications Misleading


July 13, 2012 – Lexington, KY - Earlier this week, the horse racing industry encountered further criticism when an article by the New York Times (found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/sports/ill-have-another-had-history-of-ailments-records-show.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) alleged that drastic treatments were being given to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another leading up to this year’s Belmont Stakes. The colt was withdrawn from the Belmont, ending his bid for the Triple Crown, when trainer Doug O’Neill reported he began experiencing tendonitis, or tendon swelling, in his left front leg.

The Times alleges that “powerful painkillers” were given to the horse, and that x-rays taken of the colt’s joints prior to his withdrawal indicate a much more severe problem. The author also alleges that the practice of running horses with high doses of drugs to overcome painful injuries is common practice in Thoroughbred racing.

As a member of the Jockey Club, and past president of the American Association of Equine Practitioners and the American College of Veterinary Surgeons, renowned Thoroughbred health expert Dr. Larry Bramlage gave an interview to NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams in an attempt to more accurately inform the public about health and safety practices in racing. That video can be found here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/48155033#48155033. As the AAEP’s on-call veterinarian for Triple Crown races and chief orthopedic surgeon at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, Dr. Bramlage became concerned following the release of that segment that the public did not have all the facts regarding the issues presented by the Times and NBC.

“In my opinion, The New York Times piece published on July 11 titled ‘I’ll Have Another had history of ailments, records show’ was closer to tabloid journalism than in-depth reporting, as was the selective editing demonstrated on the July 11 edition of NBC’s Nightly News with Brian Williams.

In reality, statistics given by the Times that 24 horses break down each week on American racetracks was calculated based on a number of questionable assumptions including, the inclusion of “eased” designations and equine ambulance pick-ups after a race as indications of injury, a procedure that is often, in fact, precautionary. Our increased awareness of equine injuries has increased the number of times that we help the horse off the track, but those are not necessarily indications that the horse has had a serious problem. In fact, statistics indicate the number of Thoroughbred injuries has trended downward with the increased caution The misinterpretation of the medical terminology ‘osteoarthritis’, and the substitution of ‘major painkillers’ for anti-inflammatory medications is unfair to the uninformed general public. It’s useful only to sell newspapers, not to allow the public to understand what actually happened for the horse. The phenylbutazone given to I’ll Have Another is from the same drug group as aspirin and ibuprofen in humans, can’t be given to a horse within 24 hours of a race, and is tested for with blood and urine samples at all levels of the sport. Dexamethasone is a corticosteroid used as an anti-inflammatory as well.

There have been 11 horses that have won two of the three legs of the Triple Crown in the last 33 years. I would guess that almost all of those horses had x-rays after winning the second leg as a monitoring, precautionary measure. That’s routine veterinary care, and would be akin to the kind of examinations that human Olympic athletes who just qualified in the U.S. championships will undergo prior to competing in the Olympics at the end of July.

While veterinary ethics preclude us from speculating on I’ll Have Another’s case specifically as we were not the attending veterinarian, the records provided to New York State Racing and Wagering Board do not indicate anything inappropriate. No illegal, unprofessional, or medically unwarranted medication was given to this horse. We totally agree with the approach that Dr. Jim Hunt, attending veterinarian, took to get this horse ready for a possible Triple Crown run.”

A Brief Look at the New Belmont Stakes

I literally just deleted three paragraphs of text on my plans for not betting on the Belmont Stakes tomorrow – at least not trying to beat I’ll Have Another but just placing a souvenir wager on him to take the Triple Crown.

Well THAT plan is at an end.

With I’ll Have Another’s scratch the day before his date with destiny, I had to actually open up The Form and take a look at some past performances.  Dullahan took the mantle as morning line favorite while others are looking toward the return of Union Rags or the emergence of Paynter.  I’ve gotten over most of my depression but I’m not sure that I see any value in here.  I had thought that Dullahan was second best and now I think he is clearly the best.  The distance shouldn’t be an issue, his quality is there and I can openly root for a son of the sire of my two fillies to win a Classic for Even the Score.

Paynter’s last two wins races earned monster Beyers but it’s hard for me to take a big Beyer in an allowance race seriously when a horse is prepping for the Belmont.  When facing much better in his first two starts of the season he whiffed, not being able to handle the slop at Churchill and never really in the Santa Anita Derby (albeit with some trouble).

I think that Union Rags probably has the best chance of upending Dullahan here but this is a colt that always finds trouble.  The fact that Velasquez gets on him is good, but it seems like a horse that finds trouble seems to find trouble all the time.  That said, he still finds the winner’s circle more often than not and that speaks volumes of the colt’s class.

That said, I’m sticking with Dullahan with Union Rags a troubled second.

Busy Weekend On Tap

DARK STAR MEMORIAL

If you're coming down to Canterbury to watch I'll Have Another's pursuit of immortality in the Belmont stakes, try and come out early.  Track officials have announced that at 10:00AM in the paddock they will hold a memorial for the late Dark Star.  There will be plenty of stories and reminiscnences celebrating Dark's life.  It's probably fitting that the memorial be held in the paddock - that's where all of Dark's picks could win. It's a good thing, too, as his spirit probably would have had a tough time finding the winner's circle if it were held trackside!  God bless you, Drk, I hope you know how much you're missed.

NEW OWNERS' SEMINAR

The Minnesota Thoroughbred Association is sponsoring a New Owners' Seminar immediately following the Dark Star Memorial (approx. 11 AM) on the second floor of the grandstand.  There will be several speakers talking about legal issues, accounting issues, partnerships, claiming, auctions, training, vet care for the racehorse and more.  If you've ever thought about getting into the game but weren't sure how, this is going to be a great opportunity to listen to experts, ask questions and get a feel for what it's like to be a part of the game.

TRIPLE CROWN?

I'll Have Another's pursuit of the Triple Crown will end one way or another on Saturday afternoon in Elmont, NY.  I'm not sure what I'll do about placing a bet on the Belmont Stakes yet.  I really want to see a Triple Crown and am seriously thinking about purchasing a $2 win ticket on I'll Have Another and root for history.  There may very well be value in trying to bet the colt, but I can't bring myself to do it.  Those that know me know that I would bet against my mom if the line was right (sorry mom - and yes, she does read my posts), so that ought to tell you how badly I want to see a Triple Crown!

Merry Christmas

As the year winds down, thoughts turn toward the new year, the Derby trail, a possible Triple Crown and, closer to home, what 2012 will bring to Tabby Lane and her possible stablemates. In the next week I'll take a look back at her season and the racing season in general but for today I look forward to celebrating the day with my family and friends.  I wish the very best to you and yours whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, Ramadan, the winter solstice or just enjoy the season.

May the season bring joy and peace to the world - even if just for a few days.

"Ice" Destined for Glory or Footnote?

3 Ruler on Ice (Breen/Valdiva): Only non-maiden win was a first level allowance in Philly.  Seems like an awfully huge step for his first stakes win.

That was my analysis of the Belmont winner.  If I had to do it all over again, I probably would do the same.  In fact, depending upon my mood, I may not be as charitable!  Yet, he won.  Sure his ‘wet’ Tomlinson number was 395, but Santiva is a 382 and Shakleford and Mucho Macho Man are both over 400 and have better resumes.  Before we castigate Shakleford and MMM for not having the pedigrees to go long – neither does Ruler on Ice!  In fact, his distance number was second lowest in the field behind only MMM.  Didn’t have him on Saturday and wouldn’t bet on him again as I peruse the PPs.

So now the question is what happens now?  Does he step up and become the leader in an apparently weak three year old division or does he become a footnote in history?  A fluke horse that just happens to get lucky with the stars, moon and clouds aligning (and opening up) at just the right moment so he’ll always have “Classic Winner” next to his name.

As an owner, I kind of wouldn’t care if it was my lucky day.  The thrill of winning a Classic and being able to say forever that you campaigned a Classic winner would be well worth the powers that be telling me how lucky I was.  You bet your ass I was lucky – and I would have that forever.

Unfortunately, I don’t own Ruler on Ice (though I loves me our Tabby Lane) I kind of feel like I did when Sarava and Da’ Tara won their Belmonts.  Neither went on to lead the division or make history, but will always have that footnote.  Someone tell them to make room in their club, they got another member on Saturday.

It's No "Sidewalks of New York" - my Belmont Preview

First things first, while I’m happy that “New York, New York” is back rather than the train wreck of an experiment last year, I still miss “Sidewalks of New York”.  Call me old school, but I really liked that and it was a bit different than every other event in New York that has to play NY, NY.  It’s a field of 12 that will go to the post in the oldest of the Triple Crown races tomorrow, but no more than a handful have a real shot.  Here is my take:

1 Master of Hounds (O’Brien/Gomez): Better suited for this distance than just about any other contender.  A respectable 5^th in the Derby working his way from 15^th early on.  Smaller field and a larger track could be just what the doc ordered after wisely sitting out the Preakness.

2 Stay Thirsty (Pletcher/Castellano): Two Grade Is since the Gotham were miserable with no real excuses.

3 Ruler on Ice (Breen/Valdiva): Only non-maiden win was a first level allowance in Philly.  Seems like an awfully huge step for his first stakes race.

4 Santiva (Kenneally/Bridgmohan): Still looking for that first win of 2011.  Was still closing in the Derby just behind Master of Hounds.  With the right pace set up he could be there in the end.

5 Brilliant Speed (Albertrani/Rosario): The distance isn’t a real issues but I do think that the surface is.  As much as I would love to see him win for the folks at Live Oak, I don’t see it here.  Should be solid in the future on turf and synthetic.

6 Nehro (Asmussen/Nakatani):  Everyone’s favorite Belmont horse.  “Just wait until the Belmont” we heard after the Derby.  Still eligible for a NW1 allowance, the colt seems to have a real case of seconditis to me.  Close but no cigar horses always make me nervous and while the distance won’t be a real issue, there are better horses that are better suited to it than Nehro.

7 Monzon (Correas/Lezcano): Had a tough trip in the Peter Pan, but there is still nothing in his past that suggest he can step up into Graded Stakes company.  The three times he has tried he’s been soundly defeated.

8 Prime Cut (Howard/Prado): Nice finishes in the Lexington and the Peter Pan earned him entry in here.  I think that the distance may end up being problematical for him, however.

9 Animal Kingdom (Motion/Velazquez): Derby winner and Preakness runner up has the pedigree to go the distance and may be the most talented horse in the race.  Not a great deal of speed to run at, but besides Shakleford, I can imagine that some of the destined-to-be-also-rans are going to contest that early lead.  A mile and a half is a long way and of the horses in here that should be able to get the distance, AK is the most accomplished.  While his long term future is apparently on the turf, his short term future is winning the Belmont.

10 Mucho Macho Man (Ritvo/Dominguez): I know his connections are a great story and I keep hearing how the distance isn’t going to be an issue, but when I see a 188 Tomlinson for this distance, I think that’s a pretty solid indication that the distance IS going to be an issue. After a very disappointing effort in the Preakness, the horse gets Dominguez and while I hate to count such a hard trier out, I don’t see him there at the end.

11 Isn’t He Perfect (Shivmangal/Maragh): Ah, no…he’s not.  The 30-1 in the Morning Line may be generous.

12 Shakleford (Romans/Castanon): Preakness winner is peaking at the right time.  Obviously he’ll want the lead and with not a ton of early speed, he may just get it – but it won’t be without a price. Out in the 12^th position he may need to get used early to get to the top, especially if one of the 30-1s decides to try and steal it from the inside.  The distance is going to be an issue – I know he galloped out well in the Preakness, but he certainly didn’t in the Derby.  I think he’s going to take a lot of dough and that should help the exotic payouts.

1.       Animal Kingdom

2.       Master of Hounds

3.       Nehro

4.       Santiva

Preakness Stakes Preview; Tabby Lane Works at Canterbury

As mentioned previously, the Preakness Stakes appears to be the major stumbling block between Animal Kingdom and the Triple Crown.  He’s bred to go long and if he can prove himself worthy in Baltimore then he’s going to take a very large step toward immortality.

If you look back prior to his Derby win you could make the comment “if he can handle the dirt he’ll be tough with this group”.  I didn’t make that comment, continuing my record of Derby futility, but he really looks good after that win.  He still looks like a horse on the improve and with the pace looking to be honest he stands a great chance of taking this race.

As the Derby showed us, Shakleford is more than willing to go to the front.  He’ll have company with the additions of Dance City and Flashpoint.  Midnight Interlude, he of the disappointing Derby performance, is either a horse who failed to fire or simply a cut below the competition.  Should he be ready for a bounce back performance this afternoon, he’s another who is going to want to head to the front. 

Animal Kingdom should be in forefront of the second group of horses down the backside and be well positioned for his closing kick.  In essence when the real running begins all he’ll need to do is beat horses that he already beat handily down the lane at Churchill.

The wildcard is going to be the Derby favorite, Dialed In.  Dialed In started slow, stayed slow but rallied nicely through the finish – of course he left himself WAY too much to do and finished the best eighth in Derby history, according to his trainer, Nick Zito.  This is akin to having your best outcome in the lottery if you only had three more numbers.  In any case, if Dialed In gets into the mix earlier then he will give Animal Kingdom a run for his money but I think will ultimately fall short.  Right now my two favorites are co-favorites in the early wagering at 3-1 each.  At 3-1, AK is good value though if he slides toward even money I may move to Dialed In who at that point would have probably wandered up around 9-2, though it appears that support for the Derby favorite is going to remain strong throughout the day.

Preakness Picks:

Animal Kingdom

Dialed In

Mucho Macho Man

Tabby Land Returns to Canterbury

In our own world, Tabby Lane is settled in to her stall at Canterbury and had her first work over the surface this past week where she surprised all of us with a 2^nd best work of the day of :47.8 for four furlongs.  The first condition book doesn’t appear to have a race that’ll fit her, but extras are written every day and if we get the chance we’ll get her in a spot – preferably about a mile or so over the dirt track.  We may push her up a level from her last Tampa start, but it all depends upon what races are written and how she’s doing.  Hopefully it won’t take too long and we’ll be racing here at home in the next few weeks.

Animal Kingdom 12th Triple Crown Winner?

Animal Kingdom is the only horse in the world with a chance to win the Triple Crown.  We all know that we haven’t had a Triple Crown winner since 1978 and Affirmed. Now that the 137^th Kentucky Derby is in the books the question on everyone’s lips is: could this be the year?  It very well could be.  Should he complete it, I don’t know if it will speak to the ultimate greatness of Animal Kingdom or the relative mediocrity of this year’s crop of three year olds - and I’m not really sure if that matters. 

The ability of the modern day Thoroughbred to tackle three of the most competitive races in North America over a five week period has been called in question – increasingly so as the quest for a Triple Crown winner goes unfulfilled year after year.  These colts are asked to go further and run faster than they ever have before over three different tracks in three states.  It’s become a feat in and of itself just to be able to be competitive in all three races never mind win them all.  Any colt that can complete this Crown is special regardless of the competition. Period.

In years past, a dominating Derby performance would scare all but the hardiest competitors away from the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico two weeks later.  Animal Kingdome apparently scared no one. A full field of fourteen is expected in the starting gate on May 21.  While most Derby competitors will not make the trip to Baltimore, several well regarded challengers not in the Derby field will try and derail Animal Kingdom’s gallop toward immortality. 

For now it’s entertaining to listen to the experts hammer away at Animal Kingdom’s supposed inferiority over past champions and lament the mediocrity of this crop of three year olds.  Perhaps both are the case, but you can only dance to the songs that are played – the rest you have no control over.  I guarantee that ten years from now, should he be able to capture history, no one will remember the weak crop or the injuries that sidelined contenders, only that Animal Kingdom was the 12^th winner of the Triple Crown.

We Own A Piece of Secretariat!

Tabby Lane

Secretariat

It's true. Our very own Tabby Lane is a decedent on her dam's side to the great Triple Crown winner and star of the big screen. The lineage goes:

Secretariat was the sire of Secrettame, dam of Gone West, sire of Rodeo, sire of Keeley Chay, dam of our very own Tabby Lane.

Sure, it's a stretch, but he's there and while watching the film yesterday I thought of the connection to Big Red, hero of my youth, and I teared up a little. I wonder if Secretariat hated peppermints, too?

Belmont Appears to Be Chalky

It’s Belmont Day and there is a noticeable lack of zip in Internet traffic and sparkle heading into the 142nd renewal of the final jewel. This year, more than most, the build up to the race is suffering without another chance at a Triple Crown because of the defections of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin at Lucky. There appears to be no sex appeal this year and my guess is that television ratings and on track attendance will be down sharply. Temps in the high 80’s and the threat of thunderstorms all day will do nothing to help the situation either.

There is still a million dollars on the line and the twelve contenders have stories to tell. There are going to be longshots and favorites as well as a very long stretch drive and at the end of the day a horse will cement themselves in legend and will trot away with the title of Best American Marathon Horse (3-year old division). Granted a lot of the world doesn’t see a mile and a half as much of a marathon, but here in the speed crazy United States, anything longer than a mile and sixteenth is reason for wonderment and a mile and a half is almost otherworldly.

Here is the line-up:

1. Dave in Dixie (Sadler/Borel) – I’m not sure of the thought process in entering this one. Last out in the Illinois Derby in his first trip off the synthetic he finished 16 lengths behind American Lion and now has to go even further.

2. Spangled Star (Dutrow/Gomez) – While the slow and steady gain in the mile long Withers was nice – and he’s bred for distance - this guy belongs in a NW2 Allowance, not a Triple Crown race.

3. Uptowncharlybrown (McLaughlin/Maragh) – One of the “pre-season” Classic favorites, this guy hasn’t won since a small stakes race at Tampa in mid-January. The closing move he displayed in the Lexington was more a product of a bad start rather than wanting more distance.

4. Make Music for Me (Barba/Rosario) – Disadvantaged early in the Kentucky Derby he came back from the way outside to close for fourth. Prior to the Derby he was all synthetic and turf and with the sloppy Churchill Downs underneath him, it’s hard to know what he’s going to be like in NY. The bullet Belmont work from Monday makes him a live longshot.

5. Fly Down (Zito/Velazquez) – The “other” Zito horse, his walk in the park Dwyer win had tongues wagging. The distance shouldn’t be a problem and if you throw out the LA Derby, he should be a strong contender in here.

6. Ice Box (Zito/Lezcano) – No sooner was the Derby over than the talk began – “Zito has to skip the Preakness with him and point to the Belmont”. With all the trouble he encountered and strong run down the stretch, he is the deserved ML favorite in the race. To get a price you’re going to have to try and beat him, and that won’t be easy.

7. Drosselmeyer (Mott/Smith) – Though he had his issues in the Dwyer, no way he was going to beat Fly Down. I don’t see him doing it here either. Like Spangled Star, he’s a Distorted Humor and should take to the distance but he may not be talented enough to hang with these.

8. Game On Dude (Baffert/Garcia) – No Lookin at Lucky? No problem. Let’s look in the barn and see what we can drum up to stand in for him. An easy winner of the Lone Star Derby he lost to Ice Box by over 10 lengths in the Florida Derby.

9. Stately Victor (Maker/Garcia) – Only three-year old victory was a romp in the Blue Grass over the synthetic at 40-1. Will probably have the same boxcars payoff if he wins here.

10. Stay Put (Margolis/Theriot) – Hasn’t sniffed a win at the Graded Stakes level and only non-maiden wins have been against optional claimers.

11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) – The second of the Belmont “Dude” entries was a solid second in the Preakness, but could be a bit shortpriced as the mile and three sixteenths appeared to be a bit much for him after setting the early fractions.

12. Interactif (Pletcher/Castellano) - A terror at two, he has not fulfilled this promise at three. Should like the distance but may not care for the dirt after playing on synthetic and turf since his uninspired 8th in the Sanford.

The race looks tremendously chalky. Ice Box should have the room and the long stretch should provide him the runway to close like a freight train again. He has improved with each race with even his second in the Derby impressive. Stablemate Fly Down should be in a better tracking position and may be in a better position to track down the early speed. The Dudes and Interactif are what pass for speed in here but probably can’t carry it the entire way so, in all likelihood, the race sets up for a Zito exacta and I like Make Music for Me to fill out the trifecta.

1. Fly Down
2. Ice Box
3. Make Music for Me

Hi-Ho Pimlico!

OK, so it's not "Get Your Preak On", but a throw back slogan to my younger days when I was a grandstand denizen and ticket puncher at Old Hilltop. A ghost of Preaknesses past. Still, I like the new slogan and the effort being made to energize the second jewel of the Triple Crown and inject some youthful exuberance.

It's no secret that I want to win the Preakness someday. The other two jewels would be nice, but if I could only choose one, I'd want the Woodlawn Vase - probably because I spent so much time there a lifetime ago and where I kindled my love of the game. Obviously I don't have a horse in the race this year (you wouldn't hear the end of it if I did!) but I also don't have a black cloud over my head when it comes to picking a Preakness winner.

While there are several nice newcomers to the Trail this weekend, I see myself going very chalky in this one.

1. Aikinite (Pletcher/Castellano) - Hasn't won since first out back in August. Some nice efforts including a wide second in the Derby Trial last out, but probably a step below these - especially over a dry track.

2. Schoolyard Dreams (Ryan/Coa) - After a heart pounding finish and loss by the slimmest of noses in the Tampa Bay Derby, he put in a Derby dream ending flat as a pancake Wood.

3. Pleasant Prince (Ward/Leparoux) - The stand out effort in the Florida Derby appears to have been an anomaly.

4. Northern Giant (Lukas/Thompson) - Best bid was over the synthetic. Another still eligible for a NW2 allowance.

5. Yawanna Twist (Dutrow/Prado) - Interesting runner up in the Gotham and Illinois with four solid efforts lifetime but certainly not flattered by the company he kept in either.

6. Jackson Bend (Zito/Smith) - Though steadied early in the Derby, he never worked his way back into contention like Lookin at Lucky did. Still a bridesmaid after a sizzling two-year old season. If anyone can shake it off and jump him up, it's Zito, but this one seems to slide a bit with extra distance. Could be a sprinting monster.

7. Lookin at Lucky (Baffert/Garcia) - Baffert is hoping that a change in jockey will change the horse's luck. Rough trip's have been the hallmark of his three year old season. May be the most talented colt in the race. If he can finally actually get lucky, he's a winner.

8. Super Saver (Petcher/Borel) - Great trip, loved the slop and Calvin was king. This year he stays on the Derby winner as he tries to win back-to-back Preaknesses. With a seeming lack of solid pace in the race, could Calvin take the field wire to wire? Could be.

9. Caracortado (Machowsky/Atkinson) - $40,000 would have bought you this one in his debut. A disappointing race in the Santa Anita kept this one out of the Derby which may have been a blessing. Fresh and ready he's a sentimental favorite but probably a cut below the top three here.

10. Paddy O'Prado (Romans/Desormeaux) - Desormeaux returns to where he rode as a bug boy back in my Maryland heyday. A solid race in the Derby showed he could handle the dirt track, though he's never ran over a dry, fast dirt course. He really stepped up when the spotlight was on though this time he'll probably not be so far back and need to press the pace a bit.

11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) - Hard to fathom that this one has a shot.

12. Dublin (Gomez) - Gomez finds a mount but he certainly didn't get any luckier with the Irish here. His preps were a series of almost theres and his Derby was flat. It's tough to imagine that Dublin has the chance to win his first race since last September against this field.

The lack of a real speedster or two in this group makes it an interesting race to figure out. No one in here is a confirmed front runner, but the Derby winner has done it in the past and this race sets up for him to take to the front and do it again. If Paddy O'Prado takes to his flank early and Lookin at Lucky can finally catch a break I think that Lucky can take this one with Super Saver holding for second with Paddy holding off Dublin for the show spot.

Selections:

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Super Saver
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Dublin