It’s Belmont Day and there is a noticeable lack of zip in Internet traffic and sparkle heading into the 142nd renewal of the final jewel. This year, more than most, the build up to the race is suffering without another chance at a Triple Crown because of the defections of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin at Lucky. There appears to be no sex appeal this year and my guess is that television ratings and on track attendance will be down sharply. Temps in the high 80’s and the threat of thunderstorms all day will do nothing to help the situation either.
There is still a million dollars on the line and the twelve contenders have stories to tell. There are going to be longshots and favorites as well as a very long stretch drive and at the end of the day a horse will cement themselves in legend and will trot away with the title of Best American Marathon Horse (3-year old division). Granted a lot of the world doesn’t see a mile and a half as much of a marathon, but here in the speed crazy United States, anything longer than a mile and sixteenth is reason for wonderment and a mile and a half is almost otherworldly.
Here is the line-up:
1. Dave in Dixie (Sadler/Borel) – I’m not sure of the thought process in entering this one. Last out in the Illinois Derby in his first trip off the synthetic he finished 16 lengths behind American Lion and now has to go even further.
2. Spangled Star (Dutrow/Gomez) – While the slow and steady gain in the mile long Withers was nice – and he’s bred for distance - this guy belongs in a NW2 Allowance, not a Triple Crown race.
3. Uptowncharlybrown (McLaughlin/Maragh) – One of the “pre-season” Classic favorites, this guy hasn’t won since a small stakes race at Tampa in mid-January. The closing move he displayed in the Lexington was more a product of a bad start rather than wanting more distance.
4. Make Music for Me (Barba/Rosario) – Disadvantaged early in the Kentucky Derby he came back from the way outside to close for fourth. Prior to the Derby he was all synthetic and turf and with the sloppy Churchill Downs underneath him, it’s hard to know what he’s going to be like in NY. The bullet Belmont work from Monday makes him a live longshot.
5. Fly Down (Zito/Velazquez) – The “other” Zito horse, his walk in the park Dwyer win had tongues wagging. The distance shouldn’t be a problem and if you throw out the LA Derby, he should be a strong contender in here.
6. Ice Box (Zito/Lezcano) – No sooner was the Derby over than the talk began – “Zito has to skip the Preakness with him and point to the Belmont”. With all the trouble he encountered and strong run down the stretch, he is the deserved ML favorite in the race. To get a price you’re going to have to try and beat him, and that won’t be easy.
7. Drosselmeyer (Mott/Smith) – Though he had his issues in the Dwyer, no way he was going to beat Fly Down. I don’t see him doing it here either. Like Spangled Star, he’s a Distorted Humor and should take to the distance but he may not be talented enough to hang with these.
8. Game On Dude (Baffert/Garcia) – No Lookin at Lucky? No problem. Let’s look in the barn and see what we can drum up to stand in for him. An easy winner of the Lone Star Derby he lost to Ice Box by over 10 lengths in the Florida Derby.
9. Stately Victor (Maker/Garcia) – Only three-year old victory was a romp in the Blue Grass over the synthetic at 40-1. Will probably have the same boxcars payoff if he wins here.
10. Stay Put (Margolis/Theriot) – Hasn’t sniffed a win at the Graded Stakes level and only non-maiden wins have been against optional claimers.
11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) – The second of the Belmont “Dude” entries was a solid second in the Preakness, but could be a bit shortpriced as the mile and three sixteenths appeared to be a bit much for him after setting the early fractions.
12. Interactif (Pletcher/Castellano) - A terror at two, he has not fulfilled this promise at three. Should like the distance but may not care for the dirt after playing on synthetic and turf since his uninspired 8th in the Sanford.
The race looks tremendously chalky. Ice Box should have the room and the long stretch should provide him the runway to close like a freight train again. He has improved with each race with even his second in the Derby impressive. Stablemate Fly Down should be in a better tracking position and may be in a better position to track down the early speed. The Dudes and Interactif are what pass for speed in here but probably can’t carry it the entire way so, in all likelihood, the race sets up for a Zito exacta and I like Make Music for Me to fill out the trifecta.
1. Fly Down
2. Ice Box
3. Make Music for Me
Showing posts with label Super Saver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Saver. Show all posts
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Hi-Ho Pimlico!
OK, so it's not "Get Your Preak On", but a throw back slogan to my younger days when I was a grandstand denizen and ticket puncher at Old Hilltop. A ghost of Preaknesses past. Still, I like the new slogan and the effort being made to energize the second jewel of the Triple Crown and inject some youthful exuberance.
It's no secret that I want to win the Preakness someday. The other two jewels would be nice, but if I could only choose one, I'd want the Woodlawn Vase - probably because I spent so much time there a lifetime ago and where I kindled my love of the game. Obviously I don't have a horse in the race this year (you wouldn't hear the end of it if I did!) but I also don't have a black cloud over my head when it comes to picking a Preakness winner.
While there are several nice newcomers to the Trail this weekend, I see myself going very chalky in this one.
1. Aikinite (Pletcher/Castellano) - Hasn't won since first out back in August. Some nice efforts including a wide second in the Derby Trial last out, but probably a step below these - especially over a dry track.
2. Schoolyard Dreams (Ryan/Coa) - After a heart pounding finish and loss by the slimmest of noses in the Tampa Bay Derby, he put in a Derby dream ending flat as a pancake Wood.
3. Pleasant Prince (Ward/Leparoux) - The stand out effort in the Florida Derby appears to have been an anomaly.
4. Northern Giant (Lukas/Thompson) - Best bid was over the synthetic. Another still eligible for a NW2 allowance.
5. Yawanna Twist (Dutrow/Prado) - Interesting runner up in the Gotham and Illinois with four solid efforts lifetime but certainly not flattered by the company he kept in either.
6. Jackson Bend (Zito/Smith) - Though steadied early in the Derby, he never worked his way back into contention like Lookin at Lucky did. Still a bridesmaid after a sizzling two-year old season. If anyone can shake it off and jump him up, it's Zito, but this one seems to slide a bit with extra distance. Could be a sprinting monster.
7. Lookin at Lucky (Baffert/Garcia) - Baffert is hoping that a change in jockey will change the horse's luck. Rough trip's have been the hallmark of his three year old season. May be the most talented colt in the race. If he can finally actually get lucky, he's a winner.
8. Super Saver (Petcher/Borel) - Great trip, loved the slop and Calvin was king. This year he stays on the Derby winner as he tries to win back-to-back Preaknesses. With a seeming lack of solid pace in the race, could Calvin take the field wire to wire? Could be.
9. Caracortado (Machowsky/Atkinson) - $40,000 would have bought you this one in his debut. A disappointing race in the Santa Anita kept this one out of the Derby which may have been a blessing. Fresh and ready he's a sentimental favorite but probably a cut below the top three here.
10. Paddy O'Prado (Romans/Desormeaux) - Desormeaux returns to where he rode as a bug boy back in my Maryland heyday. A solid race in the Derby showed he could handle the dirt track, though he's never ran over a dry, fast dirt course. He really stepped up when the spotlight was on though this time he'll probably not be so far back and need to press the pace a bit.
11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) - Hard to fathom that this one has a shot.
12. Dublin (Gomez) - Gomez finds a mount but he certainly didn't get any luckier with the Irish here. His preps were a series of almost theres and his Derby was flat. It's tough to imagine that Dublin has the chance to win his first race since last September against this field.
The lack of a real speedster or two in this group makes it an interesting race to figure out. No one in here is a confirmed front runner, but the Derby winner has done it in the past and this race sets up for him to take to the front and do it again. If Paddy O'Prado takes to his flank early and Lookin at Lucky can finally catch a break I think that Lucky can take this one with Super Saver holding for second with Paddy holding off Dublin for the show spot.
Selections:
1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Super Saver
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Dublin
It's no secret that I want to win the Preakness someday. The other two jewels would be nice, but if I could only choose one, I'd want the Woodlawn Vase - probably because I spent so much time there a lifetime ago and where I kindled my love of the game. Obviously I don't have a horse in the race this year (you wouldn't hear the end of it if I did!) but I also don't have a black cloud over my head when it comes to picking a Preakness winner.
While there are several nice newcomers to the Trail this weekend, I see myself going very chalky in this one.
1. Aikinite (Pletcher/Castellano) - Hasn't won since first out back in August. Some nice efforts including a wide second in the Derby Trial last out, but probably a step below these - especially over a dry track.
2. Schoolyard Dreams (Ryan/Coa) - After a heart pounding finish and loss by the slimmest of noses in the Tampa Bay Derby, he put in a Derby dream ending flat as a pancake Wood.
3. Pleasant Prince (Ward/Leparoux) - The stand out effort in the Florida Derby appears to have been an anomaly.
4. Northern Giant (Lukas/Thompson) - Best bid was over the synthetic. Another still eligible for a NW2 allowance.
5. Yawanna Twist (Dutrow/Prado) - Interesting runner up in the Gotham and Illinois with four solid efforts lifetime but certainly not flattered by the company he kept in either.
6. Jackson Bend (Zito/Smith) - Though steadied early in the Derby, he never worked his way back into contention like Lookin at Lucky did. Still a bridesmaid after a sizzling two-year old season. If anyone can shake it off and jump him up, it's Zito, but this one seems to slide a bit with extra distance. Could be a sprinting monster.
7. Lookin at Lucky (Baffert/Garcia) - Baffert is hoping that a change in jockey will change the horse's luck. Rough trip's have been the hallmark of his three year old season. May be the most talented colt in the race. If he can finally actually get lucky, he's a winner.
8. Super Saver (Petcher/Borel) - Great trip, loved the slop and Calvin was king. This year he stays on the Derby winner as he tries to win back-to-back Preaknesses. With a seeming lack of solid pace in the race, could Calvin take the field wire to wire? Could be.
9. Caracortado (Machowsky/Atkinson) - $40,000 would have bought you this one in his debut. A disappointing race in the Santa Anita kept this one out of the Derby which may have been a blessing. Fresh and ready he's a sentimental favorite but probably a cut below the top three here.
10. Paddy O'Prado (Romans/Desormeaux) - Desormeaux returns to where he rode as a bug boy back in my Maryland heyday. A solid race in the Derby showed he could handle the dirt track, though he's never ran over a dry, fast dirt course. He really stepped up when the spotlight was on though this time he'll probably not be so far back and need to press the pace a bit.
11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) - Hard to fathom that this one has a shot.
12. Dublin (Gomez) - Gomez finds a mount but he certainly didn't get any luckier with the Irish here. His preps were a series of almost theres and his Derby was flat. It's tough to imagine that Dublin has the chance to win his first race since last September against this field.
The lack of a real speedster or two in this group makes it an interesting race to figure out. No one in here is a confirmed front runner, but the Derby winner has done it in the past and this race sets up for him to take to the front and do it again. If Paddy O'Prado takes to his flank early and Lookin at Lucky can finally catch a break I think that Lucky can take this one with Super Saver holding for second with Paddy holding off Dublin for the show spot.
Selections:
1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Super Saver
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Dublin
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Derby Musings (+3.70!)
Despite my continuing record of futility I was able to eek out a "profit" on the Churchill card. Yes, my choice finished 9th. It actually may be one of my better choices!! No one really cares about, though, what we care about is the Derby. There will be plenty of coverage online detailing the racerunning itself at the Daily Race Form. Be sure to check the blogs I follow down the left side of this page for some interesting views on the race.
Some of my thoughts on the day we had:
- How about Borel? Holy crap! A great ride and it is unbelievable that he has won three of the last four Derbies. An absolutely stellar performance. Pletcher is right - at Churchill, Borel is a rock star.
- Finally Todd! While my string of Derby failures continues, Todd Pletcher's comes to a screeching halt. He carried himself admirably all week long answering every question about the 0-24 with grace and aplomb. I found myself very happy that he won. Granted, I wish he did it with Mission Impazible, but I'm happy for him none-the-less.
- Lookin at Lucky. Man, did he get pinballed around!! When the dust settled he was 6th. All in all, that was a pretty impressive performance. This type of trip is one of the reasons I hate the twenty horse field. This horse is a star and will prove it the rest of the year.
- Chasing the Dream Racing 2008 LLC. A bunch of folks buy a horse for $10,000 and end up in the Kentucky Derby. Sounds like my dream! I can only hope that Tabby Lane is a fraction as successful as Noble's Promise.
- A not so Awesome Act. Yikes. He was nowhere to be seen the entire race. The sexy pick of the 'experts'? Not so much.
- 99-1. The odds that Backtalk should have been going into this race. The "Mine That Bird effect" at work. Everyone wanted to be on the longshot and handicapping took a vacation. 23-1?
- Post 20. Sidney's Candy broke well, got with the front group and promptly fell out of contention when it counted. Was it the post or was it the dirt? We may never know.
- Freight train. How about that closing kick from Ice Box? I have to agree with the folks that say skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont. A smaller field and that closing kick could be deadly at a mile and a half.
- The filly. She had a good first portion of the race but ran into all kinds of problems - not to mention Discreetly Mine and Dublin - in the last portion of the race. She a nice filly and she'll be fun to watch battling it out with Blind Luck and Evening Jewel the rest of the year.
- Triple Crown. Is Super Saver the Triple Crown lock that Borel says he is? His worst finish ever was a fourth only beaten by 2 lengths as a 2-year old. He obviously handled the distance and seems to be improving with each added furlong, but it's a tough row to hoe. The upside for him? The rest of the crop that are eligible to run over the next 5 weeks do not seem overly impressive. As noted above, Ice Box would be tough in the Belmont. Bottom line: It could happen but it won't be easy.
So another Derby is in the books and my horse betting skills in the biggest race in America have failed once again. Thankfully the rest of the card worked out. Now the real fun begins.
Some of my thoughts on the day we had:
- How about Borel? Holy crap! A great ride and it is unbelievable that he has won three of the last four Derbies. An absolutely stellar performance. Pletcher is right - at Churchill, Borel is a rock star.
- Finally Todd! While my string of Derby failures continues, Todd Pletcher's comes to a screeching halt. He carried himself admirably all week long answering every question about the 0-24 with grace and aplomb. I found myself very happy that he won. Granted, I wish he did it with Mission Impazible, but I'm happy for him none-the-less.
- Lookin at Lucky. Man, did he get pinballed around!! When the dust settled he was 6th. All in all, that was a pretty impressive performance. This type of trip is one of the reasons I hate the twenty horse field. This horse is a star and will prove it the rest of the year.
- Chasing the Dream Racing 2008 LLC. A bunch of folks buy a horse for $10,000 and end up in the Kentucky Derby. Sounds like my dream! I can only hope that Tabby Lane is a fraction as successful as Noble's Promise.
- A not so Awesome Act. Yikes. He was nowhere to be seen the entire race. The sexy pick of the 'experts'? Not so much.
- 99-1. The odds that Backtalk should have been going into this race. The "Mine That Bird effect" at work. Everyone wanted to be on the longshot and handicapping took a vacation. 23-1?
- Post 20. Sidney's Candy broke well, got with the front group and promptly fell out of contention when it counted. Was it the post or was it the dirt? We may never know.
- Freight train. How about that closing kick from Ice Box? I have to agree with the folks that say skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont. A smaller field and that closing kick could be deadly at a mile and a half.
- The filly. She had a good first portion of the race but ran into all kinds of problems - not to mention Discreetly Mine and Dublin - in the last portion of the race. She a nice filly and she'll be fun to watch battling it out with Blind Luck and Evening Jewel the rest of the year.
- Triple Crown. Is Super Saver the Triple Crown lock that Borel says he is? His worst finish ever was a fourth only beaten by 2 lengths as a 2-year old. He obviously handled the distance and seems to be improving with each added furlong, but it's a tough row to hoe. The upside for him? The rest of the crop that are eligible to run over the next 5 weeks do not seem overly impressive. As noted above, Ice Box would be tough in the Belmont. Bottom line: It could happen but it won't be easy.
So another Derby is in the books and my horse betting skills in the biggest race in America have failed once again. Thankfully the rest of the card worked out. Now the real fun begins.
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