Breeders' Cup - Day 2

I whiffed on Day 1.  I got saddled with the donut.  Grabbed a bagel.  Name the cliché and I got it.  Zilch.  Bupkiss. In shooting for some value, I did manage to pick the 1st loser twice (Tapiture and Don't Tell Sophia) but that just don't get 'er done.

Both of my 2nd place horses made solid efforts.  I actually thought Tapiture was going to run Goldencents down but the Doug O'Neill Leandro Moro trainee just spun his wheels deep in the lane and Goldencents was simply not going to let him by.  It was a very impressive performance on the front end.  Untapable was also very impressive.  I think she is an absolutely remarkable filly.  At 7/5, she probably was a bargain.

Thanks to Maryjean whomping her field at Hawthorne for the Canterbury Racing Club, the day was not a total loss for me.  Heather continued her remarkable knack for tri and supers, hitting 2 tris and a super on the 4 Breeders' Cup races and doubling her stake heading into day 2. 

Here are my picks on Day 2 for Hello Race Fans.

Juvenile Fillies: Angela Renee.  There should be enough speed to run at here and Angela Renee ran nearly the perfect race last out to take the Grade 1 Chandelier at Belmont.  She appears to have improved going a bit longer and though I fear Conquest Eclipse running her down late or Cristina's Journey getting away with no pressure, I'm going to take Angela Renee, albeit tepidly.  Morning Line: 3-1.

Filly and Mare Turf: Just the Judge.  I love Stephanie's Kitten, I'll admit that up front.  She would have been another educated hunch play (shares a name with my sister...Stephanie, not Kitten) but this Euro appears to be in fine fettle coming into the race and her two American starts have been very strong, especially the prep at Woodbine in the Grade 1 EP Taylor. Morning Line: 5-1

Filly and Mare Sprint: Judy the Beauty.  The center of this field, Judy the Beauty, Leigh Court and Artemis Agrotera, all intrigue me. I think Judy gets the right trip and I'm hoping we can get a little more generous price than her morning line: 5/2

Turf Sprint: Silentio.  I admittedly was influenced by a conversation I heard on Steve Byk's radio show.  The topic was the downhill turf course and how pure sprinters can frequently give up the lead to closing types that are cutting back in distance and can pay a generous price.  If you look at Home Run Kitten, that race fits the profile perfectly.  The one in this race fitting that pattern is Silentio.  While Reneesgotzip appears to be the heir apparent to Mizdirection, I'm going with Silentio.  Morning Line: 8-1

Juvenile: Calculator.  I know he's still a maiden and that I hate maidens running in stakes races but hear me out.  American Pharoah was the lock of the weekend.  Who was clearly 2nd best in American Pharoah's last two races?  Calculator.  Does this necessarily make him the 2nd best 2YO in training?  Of course not, but I think he deserves a LOT more respect than 15-1.  His running style should be good for this race and with One Lucky Dane, Souper Colossal (who I also like quite a bit), Blue Dancer and perhaps even Daredevil wanting the front all the way around, Trujillo may be able to give him the perfect trip and give us a boxcar payoff.  Morning Line: 15-1

Calculator scratches with a sore foot so I move to Upstart.  Still a lot of speed in the race and now one less closer for him to get past.  Morning Line: 8-1

Turf: Main Sequence.  This one was tough for me.  I'm not great when it comes to analyzing the Euros.  I had Heather's help in getting to Just the Judge and last year I had a nice paying exacta with Magician and The Fugue with the help of our friend, Brit Peter Clancy.  This one came down to Telescope and Main Sequence for me.  I ended up on Main Sequence because although his last 3 wins were VERY narrow - collectively less than 1/2 a length - they were wins and that's the mark of a gutty horse.  Telescope's Racing Post Ratings are considerably higher than Main Sequence but the choice here has run this year in America while Telescope is coming in off a layoff with no works.  Morning Line: 6-1

Sprint: Rich Tapestry.  I had to swallow hard to pick a Euro against the home town team but after Goldencents' win yesterday, that nose victory over the Dirt Mile champion in his first out in the US looks all the more impressive.  There is more than enough speed to run at and jockey and trainer have settled into Santa Anita nicely.  Look for this one to be the first Hong Kong based horse to win a BC race.  Morning Line: 5-1

Mile: Tom's Tribute.  Now THIS is a race where I should be going with a Euro, yet I am not.  They may very well jump up and bite me in the butt but I'll take the local boy coming off two wins at Del Mar with Mike Smith aboard.  He should get a nice trip and be running at the end.  The question is going to be if he is good enough to be in front at the end.  Morning Line: 15-1

Classic: Shared Belief. I know, there is no value in here.  I know.  In the battle of the Romies v the Chromies, I don't think there is any battle at all.  I don't see California Chrome in the same league at Shared Belief.  Quite frankly I don't know if anyone is.  I looked hard to try an come up with scenarios to beat him: Bayern duplicating his Penn Derby run; Tonalist reliving the Jockey Club Gold Cup; Toast of New York living up to his buzz (though he lost to Shared Belief last out...go figure).  While I see each scenario as possible - Toast of New York less so - and if I really was going to try and beat Shared Belief I'd try and logically do it with Tonalist, I think this 3-year old is just better than his peers and the older horses he's up against.  If you wanted try and beat him at a good price, I would suggest finding one of the older horses that is to your liking.  It's tough for a 3-year old to beat older, though a bit easier as the season gets later, and one of the old war horses jumping up and teaching a kid a lesson at 15-1 or so is a possibility as well.  I'm just not going to bet on it.  Morning Line: 9-5

Triple Crown is Supposed to Be Hard

By now we’ve all heard Steve Coburn’s ranting about the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  I’m not going to weigh in if he was right or wrong in reacting the way he did.  This is an emotional game and when you’re that vested in a horse you tend to lose focus and judgment.  Besides, there are a myriad of responses to his ranting already.

My beef comes with all those that are agreeing with him about the “cheaters” and “cowards” that allegedly wait until the Belmont just to try and upset the apple cart; that only those that start in all three races should be able to run in all three races; that if we’re ever going to see a Triple Crown again something has to change.

I guess my first question is a simple one: why?

This is supposed to be hard.  To quote Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own, “It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The "hard" is what makes it great.”

Is the goal to just have another Triple Crown winner?  At all costs?  At cheapening the accomplishment?  If you run each race the first Saturday of May, June and July, respectively, doesn’t the Crown lose its luster?

How does it not?

Three races in five weeks, two of which take these 3-year olds further than they ever have gone before – you win those and you’re not merely good; nor are you great; you are legend.  And that’s what a Triple Crown winner should be: legendary.

There is also a lot of hang-wringing about all the “new shooters” in the Belmont that, like I mentioned, are supposedly only in the race to upset the apple cart.  As an owner I can tell you this right now: if I had a graded stakes quality animal that could run all day but either wasn’t ready, or didn’t qualify, for the Derby, I would take my shot at the Belmont.  Not because I wouldn’t want to see the Triple Crown won but because I want MY horse to win a Classic. 

(Gregg Doyal of CBS Sports goes into great depth here on the new shooter issue: http://mweb.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24583468/california-chrome-owner-coburns-coward-rant-wrong-record-shows-it)

Winning the Belmont comes once in a horse’s life.  A mile and a half is a unique distance in American racing these days and if you can enhance the value of your horse and perhaps take your only chance to win a Classic, don’t you take it?  I tell you right now, I would.

Do you pass on the Belmont if you feel you have a real chance to win it to be a good sport?  No.   To me that is like a baseball team intentionally swinging and missing the last couple of innings of a perfect game just because it’s so rare that you just have to let it happen.  No, you don’t.  The competition; the ability to beat all comers – that’s what makes a legend.

Just because we may have bred ourselves out of being able to produce a Triple Crown winner doesn’t mean that we have to “dumb down” the series to make it attainable.  It means we need to get better.

Don’t change the series, change how you breed for it or train your horse for it.  It’s supposed to be hard.  The hard is what makes it great.

News and Notes or a Mishmash of Stuff

Thoughts on Chromer

I wasn't a believer initially.  Heading into the Derby I was not sure if he was really all that and he proved me wrong.  I jumped on the bandwagon after the Derby win, along with many others, and he certainly endorsed my confidence.

I didn't care much about the "slowness" of the Derby - there were 18 others that couldn't run faster.  The final time of a race can be influenced by many factors including the condition of the racetrack (the long break between the last dirt race and the Derby could have contributed to the 'dryness' of the track, some have speculated) and the strategy as the race developed.  I was afraid of the blistering pace in the Derby and it turned out that no one wanted to go.

Heading into the Preakness I was a bit afraid of the pace development again because if no one went in the Derby, then certainly someone would go in the Preakness.  There was some pace but Chrome ended up perfectly placed and was able to charge home.

I've actually avoided reading a lot of Tweets about the Preakness because I can already hear the complaining: ANOTHER perfect trip; he'll never get a mile and half; etc.  We'll see.  I didn't think he'd get a mile and a quarter and perfect trips come from good rides by good jockeys on good horses - you make your own luck.

Personally, I'm going to unabashedly root for a Triple Crown, I think we could use it.

Ellie Preps

Elusive Edition is getting closer to her first start for us.  She's prepping okay.  She's had two timed works where she wasn't asked for much.  In her last she had a four furlong work and she walked off the track looking like she handled it just fine.  I wouldn't go so far as to say she wouldn't have been able to blow out a candle, but it was pretty close.  I'm reserving judgments until I see her really lay out.

There are quite a few fine 3-year old Minnesota bred fillies this year, one of the best in her own barn, Sky and Sea.  She's nominated to the Minnesota Oaks but we have to get rolling first and the anxiety may kill me!

Canterbury Club

The best way to follow the doings of the Canterbury Racing Club is to sign up to get the blog updates at canterburyracingclub.com but in a nutshell: we claimed filly Maryjean for $8,000 in a race she won impressively.  We're hoping to bring her back this weekend, up a notch or two, and see what we have.  Club membership closed at a record 202 people and we're still looking for another horse for the club as well.

Bourbonology

Bobo is working on the farm and will head over to the race track in a couple of weeks.  She'll need a couple of works in her but she is rounding into shape very well.  Hopefully we'll get a start out of her by mid-June and get her summer started quickly and successfully!

Mother and Son

Tabby Lane is doing great.  We've had her covered a few times by Doneraile Court but she's come up empty.  We gave it one last try the other day and we'll see.  If she doesn't take then she'll get the year off and we'll focus on George and getting him through year one.  I think his mix of Eastwood Dacat's speed and Tabby's stamina and soundness will get us a nice runner, not just a nice Minnesota bred - but we'll see in a couple of years!

That's all the news that's fit to print now.  It should be an interesting three weeks between now and the Belmont - thank goodness.

Derby and Supporting Stakes with HELLO RACE FANS

There are two ways to look at this year’s Derby: pick a favorite and just enjoy or try and dope out the exotics and cash a big ticket. This year Heather and I have gone back and forth for weeks and we can make a case for or against virtually every animal in the field.  Even now as I recap my picks for Hello Race Fans I STILL don’t know what I’m going to write below when I get to the Derby!  If it wasn't the Derby this race would be a pass for me, gambling wise.

As for the Hello Race Fans picks, I didn't embarrass myself, which is nice.  I whiffed in the La Toienne and the Turf Sprint (although if I had listened to Heather I wouldn't have - she nailed them both!).  Fiftyshadesofgold took the Eight Belles for me and, sadly, Will Take Charge looked like a very tired racehorse as he finished off the board.  I rallied in the Oaks, as did many, with the very impressive win by Untapable so I finished with only two wins of the five races but finished tied for 3rd with the inimitable Derek Brown with $10.20 in earnings.  We both trailed HRF's Laurie Ross (1 win but it was the pricey Moonshine Mullin at $15.80) and the winner, HRF co-founder Dana Byerly who had three wins and $18 in earnings.

On to Derby Day.

DISTAFF TURF MILE

Centre Court looks dominant and is cutting back to a distance where she has won two of three – and the one she didn’t win she had a very troubled trip.  I’m going to try and beat her with a first time graded stakes participant, Ready Signal.  She moved into stakes company for the first time two starts back in the Ten Palms at Gulfstream and she was able to get up at the wire to win by a nose.  Next up was another Gulfstream stake that she won with a little more comfort at a bit longer than today’s mile distance.  Now she’s taking on graded company for the first time.  Sure, it’s a big step up, but they all had a first one and with a morning line of 12-1, I’ll be rewarded handsomely if she can make the transition.

PICK: Ready Signal

HUMANA DISTAFF

I’ve tried to go against Judy the Beauty several times and she’s kicked me in the teeth every time.  There’s some speed in here, including the swift Midnight Lucky making her seasonal debut, as well as a couple of closers, but I love the way that Judy can stalk and I think, like She’s A Tiger on Friday, Lucky may need one before moving forward.

PICK: Judy the Beauty

THE AMERICAN TURF

Winner of the inaugural Shakopee Juvenile at my home track Canterbury Park, General Jack, is in here as is well regarded Iroquois winner Cleburne and fun named Big Bazinga.  I’m looking at the Todd Pletcher trainee, PIcozza.  Remarkably consistent at three, he finished a good second in the off-the-turf Transylvania last out though he had to hang on for dear life keep that place spot by neck.  I’d like to see him move up from that effort, especially heading back on the turf for this one.

PICK: Picozza

THE CHURCHILL DOWNS

There are a few I considered in here.  Delauney capped a six race winning streak when he captured this race last year. Falling Sky easily captured the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint at this distance earlier I the year.  Clearly Now beat older as a 3-year old in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler last fall.  My choice in here is Sahara Sky.  Great consistency and a just off the pace running style that should suit him well here, though I admit I would like to see a bit more early speed for him.

PICK: Sahara Sky

TURF CLASSIC

The question here is can 2-time horse of the year Wise Dan be beat?  And if you think he can, who is going to do it?  Kaigun is a possibility.  Second to Dan last out, he was gaining sharply before the wire and this time he has another furlong to run.  Seek Again, on the outside, is interesting to me.  A European import, he came to the US the end of last year and promptly took the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in her American debut.  This is his first start of 2014.  The only thing is that whatever Dan has had to do to win, he has done.  The only time he hasn’t was in the off-the-turf Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland where he still managed to finish 2^nd.  He loves a mile, for sure, but the extra eighth of a mile in this race last year was also his largest victory.

PICK:  Wise Dan

KENTUCKY DERBY

Well…here I am.  I should take a strong stand.  Puff out my chest and declare to the world why my choice will win.  Is California Chrome the monster he has shown in California or will he wilt if things don’t go his way?  Is there too much early speed in this race for anyone close to the pace to win?  Will the pace just not be as hot as everyone thinks and a gutsy colt like Wildcat Red digs in and takes it? 

I almost decided that what I was going to do is take my hometown hero, if you will, Wicked Strong.  Cheer for him and hope for the best but if he can’t win, I wouldn't sweat it either.  However I think that after Heather and I spent three hours trying to figure out the race, I had to do better than that.  My methodology was first to eliminate who I figured the pretenders were and then eliminate the horses that want to be on or near the lead.  That left me with four.  I handicapped the four horse race and then there was one.  My wager will be a four horse tri (12, 16, 18, 19) and see if I can catch boxcars at a minimal outlay.

PICK: Intense Holiday