I literally just deleted three paragraphs of text on my
plans for not betting
on the Belmont Stakes tomorrow – at least not trying to beat I’ll Have
Another but just placing a souvenir wager on him to take the Triple Crown.
Well THAT plan is at an end.
With I’ll Have Another’s scratch the day before his date
with destiny, I had to actually open up The Form and take a look at some past
performances. Dullahan took the mantle
as morning line favorite while others are looking toward the return of Union
Rags or the emergence of Paynter. I’ve
gotten over most of my depression but I’m not sure that I see any value in
here. I had thought that Dullahan was
second best and now I think he is clearly the best. The distance shouldn’t be an issue, his
quality is there and I can openly root for a son of the sire of my two fillies
to win a Classic for Even the Score.
Paynter’s last two wins races earned monster Beyers but
it’s hard for me to take a big Beyer in an allowance race seriously when a
horse is prepping for the Belmont. When
facing much better in his first two starts of the season he whiffed, not being
able to handle the slop at Churchill and never really in the Santa Anita Derby
(albeit with some trouble).
I think that Union Rags probably has the best chance of
upending Dullahan here but this is a colt that always finds trouble. The fact that Velasquez gets on him is good,
but it seems like a horse that finds trouble seems to find trouble all the
time. That said, he still finds the
winner’s circle more often than not and that speaks volumes of the colt’s
class.
That said, I’m sticking with Dullahan with Union Rags a
troubled second.
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