Saturday, June 9, 2012

Longest Shot on the Board

That’s what Tabby Lane is on Sunday.  At 12-1 she stands no chance.  Why in the world did we even enter her?  What were we thinking?!?!

There was a method behind this entry and I’ll let you know how we can actually win this thing after we review the other entrants in the 7.5 furlong race over the Canterbury Park turf course.

1 – SS Shelby (Lund/Rivera): Mare reeled off 5 wins at Turf Paradise over the winter, winning as high as $20,000 Optional Claiming.  She did pick up a win in five starts over the turf here, though she faltered against Tabby last July in a starter.

2 – Hidden Gold (Bravo/Castro): Two time Lady Slipper Champion who hung a 79 Beyer last out.  Sharp as a tack but distance may be an issue.

3 – Second City Street (Sherer/Walker Jr): Narrow misses in her last two against these types.  Was the favorite last out running out of room.  Hoping the extra furlong and a half makes the difference.

4 – Go Go Jill (Rengstorf/Stevens):  Three year old takes on older here for the first time after picking up a win in her seasonal debut over a field of state bred allowance horses.  Talented lightly raced filly is tough and on the improve.

5 – Grace of Greatness (Robertson/Bell): Seasonal debut for filly that picked up a nice win at $25,000 open company last summer.  May need a sharpener and I doubt that this race is the goal for him.

6 – Sasha’s Fierce (Sherer/Goodwin): 2010 MN Distaff Champion hasn’t been able to duplicate her 3 year old form but has beaten this type last year.

7 – Mesa Mirage (Hanson/Keith): Speedster has the ability to wire the field and probably needed her last after the layoff.  Is going to be tough on the lead but will have company.


9 – Priceless Pearl (Silva/Franco): Second off the claim in the Silva barn.  Barn debut in the Lady Slipper didn’t go as planned but was quality on the turf last year here, though winless.

10 – Congrats and Roses (Robertson/Riggs): 2nd in the 2010 Minnesota Debutante and the 2011 Distaff Classic but just not able to nail down that stakes win.   She probably needed her last but may be overmatched in here.

So why did we enter here?  We tried to get a $12,500 claiming race to go but there were not enough entries.  Not even close.  We ended up with 2 choices: drop down to $7500 or go up a notch to $16,000.  $7500 is giving her away – there is no doubt about that.  Tabby’s low end value is about $10,000 and we’re not going to put her up for sale at less than her value.  $16,000 is probably the upper end of her range, but the issue here is that it’s an optional for non-winners of 2 lifetime other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred.  We only qualify under the claiming condition, but it does mean that we can run into lightly raced stakes or allowance horses that might not have been able to break through with enough wins yet.  Kind of the situation we’re in Sunday.

You never know how these races turn out until they are filled and this one turned up tough.  That doesn’t mean that we can’t win.

There are several horses in the field that are going to want the lead and several short sprinters stretching out a bit to seven and a half furlongs.  There are also a couple of horses that are coming in off of seasonal layoffs that may (hopefully) need a race.  Last season she really jumped up on the turf and we’re pretty excited to get her there again.  Jockey Dean Butler will have Tabby in a nice spot and she’ll rally for sure – will she have enough to get there to beat these is going to be the question.

We’ll see on Sunday afternoon.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It is a questionable ML at best....i'll take 12-1 and take my chances....