Kentucky Oaks Day Preview

Each year the folks at Hello Race Fans  provide their readers with industry veterans' selections for the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and some of the supporting stakes on each day’s undercard.  They will post the consolidated picks in a spreadsheet on their site on Friday and Saturday.  I am honored and pleased to be part of the field again this year.  While my picks will be there for all to see, there isn’t room to expound on why I chose what I did ,so, as in year’s past, I’ll thumbnail that out a bit here.

EDGEWOOD STAKES

My choice in here is on the inside, QUALITY ROCKS.  She won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks last out and did so turning the table on CONSUMER CREDIT who then went on to win the Memories of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct on April 23.  While SUNSET GLOW is favored and the pace will be light – which she should like with her front-running style, she’s faltered moving past 7 furlongs while QUALITY ROCKS has been able to take a graded stakes field at the distance here of a mile and 1/16.

LA TROIENNE

I struggled a bit here between MY MISS SOPHIA and SHEER DRAMA.  The deciding factor for me has been MY MISS SOPHIA’s lackluster second half of her 3-year old season after fighting hard and being soundly beaten by UNTAPABLE in last year’s Kentucky Oaks.  She’s been training very well but going up against SHEER DRAMA may be too tough a task for her seasonal bow.  SHEER DRAMA has improved with each start this season culminating in a dominating performance in the Grade 2 Royal Delta at Gulfstream.

ALYSHEBA

PROTONICO came back after injury with a completely masterful performance in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland.  He had a nice maintenance work in between and while Castellano got off to stay on slightly favored HONOR CODE, I don’t think the latter is going to have a strong pace to close into.  In fact, the pace should be controlled by PROTONICO – and these two certainly seem to stand over this field.

TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT

Though the last race was chalky, I’m going long shot in this field. After a long break following a $62,500 claim last year, CHANNEL MARKER debuted poorly in a mile, flashing some speed before fading, he ran a great second in the 5 ½ furlong Grade 3 Shakertown on tax day. HEATAI, JASIZZLE, GOOD DEED and SOMETHING EXTRA should all be flashing speed.  I don’t see Torres having CHANNEL MARKER as far back as he did in the Shakertown and he should be flying at the end.  If the early pace is quick enough, I hope to cash at a price.

EIGHT BELLS

The Eight Bells features the undefeated 3-year old filly, PROMISE ME SILVER.  You can’t say that she’s done anything wrong.  The only negative she really has against her is that she’s never run in a graded stake.  Make no mistake, there is most definitely a step up when you move into the rarified air of a graded stake and she’s making that step today.  For that reason I went with EKATI’S PHAETON.  Yeah, her last was an absolute clunker, but she had speed for half the race when being asked to go a mile and a sixteenth.  This gal was NOT made to go that long.  She’s back to a sprint now and her speed should be controlling and if she can’t get on top, she has proven she can rate and win as well.  At a 6-1 morning line she’s providing great value as well.

KENTUCKY OAKS

Many have written about how deep the quality runs in this year’s 3-year old male crop competing for the roses in Saturday’s Derby, but the Oaks field is no slouch either.  CONDO COMMANDO, LOVELY MARIA, I’M A CHATTERBOX, STELLAR WIND and BIRDATTHEWIRE are all in with a chance.  Should any of these cross the finish line first I would not be surprised.

The morning line favorite, STELLAR WIND, seems to have the perfect style for the Oaks.  She has the ability to stalk and her big move after a troubled start to dominate the Santa Anita Oaks was very impressive.  I went elsewhere.

My whittling down process got me to BIRDATTHEWIRE and I’M A CHATTERBOX.  BIRDATTHEWIRE has had nothing but trouble in her 2015 campaign and yet still has won 2 of the three Grade 2’s she’s run in, just missing by a neck in the Davona Dale in her other start.  This type of adversity should serve her well in here.

I’M A CHATTERBOX has been splendid in her preps down on the Bayou.  She swept the preps at Fairgrounds and did it gate to wire, from far off the pace and pressing a bit before taking command.  Florent Geroux is going to be able to react to whatever scenario gets thrown at him as the race unfolds and have confidence that his mount can get it done.

In a very competitive field, I feel that I’M A CHATTERBOX is the best horse – and my choice – but I will be using BIRDATTHEWIRE with her in the exacta.

Oaks Day Stakes With HELLO RACE FANS

It’s that time of year again and Hello Race Fans, a superb racing education web site, has tapped me and others to help folks with our ‘expert’ picks for the graded stakes on Oaks and Derby Days.  My picks can be found on their website but I thought I’d take the opportunity this year to give a little color on my picks with some narrative on why I chose who I chose.

LA TROIENNE

Six starters and the outside four are very closely matched as indicated by the Morning Line odds spread between them of 2/1 – 7/2.  I settled on Devil’s Cave purely because I think she can get an uncontested early lead and she’s proven she can hold it over the distance (as opposed to a mile and an eighth, where she could not).

PICK: Devil’s Cave

TURF SPRINT

This was an odd little race.  Several horses come into the race either having won (Marchman, Stormofthecentury) or hit the board (Positive Side) at huge odds or missed as beaten favorites (Sum of the Parts, Havelock).  I had a tough time narrowing this down so I ended up going with an old fashioned method: my gut.

PICK: Stormofthecentury

EIGHT BELLES

This is the first 3-year old start for would be Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies champ She’s A Tiger.  She’s been working well since returning to the track and hasn’t finished less than 2^nd in her six career starts.  She may be the best in here but I’m going to bet on her needing a race to sharpen up against a group like this so I went with the 2^nd choice on the morning line, Fiftyshadesofgold.  She’s had two sharp 3-year old races, losing one to the amazing Untapable.  Mike Smith is on board and she has been working well at Churchill.

PICK: Fiftyshadesofgold

ALYSHEBA

Screw value, sometimes you just have to take a winner.  As if Will Take Charge wasn’t going to be impressive enough, he now adds Gary Stevens.

PICK: Will Take Charge 

KENTUCKY OAKS

Is Untapable unbeatable?  She’s been beaten twice: once by a horrendous trip and interference and another by a synthetic surface.  Real dirt and clean trip and she has been unstoppable.  I don’t think she has even breathed heavy in her two starts at three.  I initially took a stand against her but as I write this I find my reasoning faulty and that I’m more hoping the result than doping the result.  She overcomes the post and doesn’t lose.

PICK: Untapable

Derby, Oaks and Canterbury Musings

Kentucky Derby

I supposed I should start with the obvious – once again I go down in flames in picking the Kentucky Derby winner.  Alpha was simply a no show around the racetrack.  When his connections try to figure out what went wrong, someone should tell them, “Grevelis picked you” and just shake their head slowly. 

I made the mistake of clearly underestimating jockey Mario Gutierrez.  In the blog I openly questioned whether the unheralded young rider in his first Derby had what it takes to pilot home I’ll Have Another on that large a stage – and discounted the horse’s chance because of it.  I was clearly wrong. The horse has clearly stepped up from two to three, ran great preps, should have had no problem with the distance and his running style was well suited to the race.  I questioned the pilot and young Gutierrez beat me down with his whip.  Good for him – it was a good ride and I’m happy for him.

Doug O’Neill had the winner prepped perfectly and I could hear the cheering from my California friends all the way up in the Canterbury press box.  Several of the horses that I had a minority interest in that ran in California a few years back were trained by O’Neill.  I met him on one occasion in the walking ring at Santa Anita and he was gracious, warm and unassuming. Friends who have a closer relationship with him speak in much more glowing terms.  Both he and Gutierrez will need to hold on tight and put on some sunglasses because it is going to be quite a ride heading into the Preakness and the spotlight is going to be very bright.

Most of the buzz after the race was about Bodemeister and while no one wants to discount the Derby winner, setting those fractions up front and still managing to hold on to second was nothing short of amazing.  Of the others that were close to that early pace, Hansen held on the best and he faded to ninth while the others finished 15^th, 19^th and 20^th while Bodemeister was only beaten one and a half lengths.  That Arkansas Derby was no fluke and he made a believer out of me.

Kentucky Oaks

The race set up in the exact opposite way I envisioned.  I know when the half mile split came up in :47.47 that there was no way Summer Applause could close into that pace.  I was surprised that Broadway’s Alibi couldn’t hold the lead, but Believe You Can certainly believed she could as she ground out the victory down the lane over a very game Broadway Alibi.  With The top five including Grace Hall and On Fire Baby, it looks like the filly crop is nearly as deep as the males.  It’s shaping up to be a great 2012 racing season.

Picking Winners

Over at Hello Race Fans, my guest shot at taking on the best in Graded Stakes races was less than impressive.  I whiffed on all 11 stakes (though I DID have some company there, so I didn’t feel too badly) while ending up with 3 seconds and 2 thirds.  Not one of my more dazzling performances and, unlike Mario Gutierrez, I wilted under the glare of the spotlight.  I have no excuses and I will do better on Black Eyed Susan/Preakness weekend…if I managed to get invited back!

Canterbury Park

Governor Mark Dayton signed the purse enhancement bill the other day so it’s now official, there will be some purse relief for horsemen, though it looks like the effects will not be felt until next season.  That may appear to be a bit of a letdown, but given that current year revenue generates the following year’s purses, it makes a whole lot of sense.  While purses will not go through the roof, they should stabilize and return to levels that we haven’t seen in a few years.  It will give owners and trainers a fighting chance to recoup their investments and make some money and still race at one of the most horsemen friendly facilities in the United States.

The MTA New Owner's Seminar had a nice turnout on Saturday.  I was privileged to speak about racing partnerships and the mechanics of claiming.  Hopefully we didn't scare them away with the realities of the industry.  I always start these things with some sobering statistics geared to make them think about why they are getting into this game.  Expectations need to be realistic and going in thinking you're going to invest $200 and come away with several thousand is simply out of whack.  Once that's out of the way, I can relate the details of ownership and try to let folks know what the feeling is like when your horse crosses the wire first.  At the end, I hope that folks have a clear understanding of the realities and joys of the sport I love so much.

Live racing begins Preakness Day weekend and I’ve worked out a deal with a local trainer that many folks have been asking me for: a Canterbury only runner that can be “owned” for just the racing season.  It’s a two horse package where we would lease 50% of the horses while trainer owns the remaining 50%.  You can e-mail me for details but we would start as soon as the group was formed (ideally this coming week) and finish up on the last day of the meet, September 3^rd.  It should be inexpensive and fun way to have action all season while getting a taste of the ownership experience.

Kentucky Oaks Preview

Before you get my “Pick Which Must Be Avoided” tomorrow for the Kentucky Derby, let’s take a rundown of the Kentucky Oaks.

This race, like its male counterpart on Saturday, looks like it’s chock full of possibilities with a very deep field with 9 graded stakes winners!  You could make a case for several fillies in this field, much as you can for the colts on Saturday.  I love that the fields seem very talented and deep – I feel like it’s been a long time since we’ve seen this kind of talent.

 

1-     On Fire Baby (Hartlage/Johnson) 4-1: She’s only had one real stinker and that was the follow up to her maiden win over the synthetic surface.  She likes to stalk and there is plenty of speed in here to oblige her.

2-     Grace Hall (Dutrow/Castellano) 5-2: Morning line favorite and certainly rightfully so.  Never finished out of the exacta but did lose by a neck to Yara.  That was in her 3 year old debut and can be forgiven after her dominating follow up performance in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

3-     Summer Applause (Calhoun/Gomez) 15-1: Only losses since her debut were both to Believe You Can including her last, the Fair Ground Oaks.  She was closing steadily in that race and has gotten speedier as she’s gone longer.  Race and extra half furlong could set this up for her.

4-     Eden’s Move (Baffert/Garcia) 12-1: Drifted a bit in the Santa Anita Oaks like she could have been a bit tired but pedigree says she should get the distance.  Both wins were on the engine and that feat is going to be tough to do with the speedsters in here.

5-     Hard Not to Like (Cox/Albarado) 20-1: Seems to have really improved since her two year old season, coming within ¾ of a length of beating Karlovy Vary in the Grade 1 Ashland. So was it a function of improvement or surface since she’s been all turf and synthetic.  She could be ready to fire if she enjoys the dirt.

6-     Broadway’s Alibi (Pletcher/Velazquez) 4-1: Co-second choice has reeled off four in a way leading at nearly every call of every race while doing it.  Sports the best Beyer in the field and great connections.  She’s not the only early speed in here and that could be her undoing…unless she’s much the best.

7-     Sacristy (Catalano/Smith) 50-1: Beaten by nearly 17 in the Forward Gal by Broadway’s Alibi and first time around two turns.  She’ll be coming from off the pace in here, but I just don’t think that she’s as talented as the rest of this group.

8-     Jemima’s Pearl (Baffert/Talamo) 10-1: Euro nailed a win first time out in North America in an $80K optional claiming race at Santa Anita and then a steady third in the Fantasy.  Showing an affinity for the dirt and looking at the third race back since her layoff.  Another step up puts her right in the hunt.

9-     Believe You Can (Jones/Napravnik) 10-1: Hard fought win the Fair Ground Oaks while setting the fractions, turning the tables on Summer Applause in the process avenging her defeat in the Rachel Alexandra.  Yet another who likes it close to the lead.

10-  And Why Not (Matz/Leparoux) 15-1: Filly that has generated a lot buzz in the last week since it looks as if the race will set up perfectly for this deep closer.  That may be so, but filly hasn’t won since breaking her maiden while losing to some of the more fancied runners in here.  The race may come back to her…but not enough to hit the wire first.

11-  Kalovy Vary (Arnold/Graham) 20-1: Winner of two in a row to start the season, neither of those efforts were over dirt.  Her only dirt start, the Golden Rod over this strip, was a mess and easily her weakest effort.

12-  Colonial Empress (Lukas/Nakatani) 50-1: This filly intrigues me but unfortunately for the wrong reason – she’s going to try and break her maiden in the Oaks!  In her three previous tries, all stakes, she hasn’t finished higher than 3^rd and lost by a combined 34 lengths.  I would LOVE to know what the reasoning was in entering her here.

13-  Amie’s Dini (Moquett/Court) 10-1: Never out of the top 3, she holds a special place in my heart for breaking her maiden with our own trainer/jockey combination (Rhone/Butler).  Won at a mile but came up short going longer and now will have to go yet another 1/8 of a mile.  Unlikely and may even end her streak of trifecta finishes.

14-  Yara (Garoffalo/Castanon) 30-1: Beaten by 10 by the ML favorite in the Gulfstream Park Oaks after nipping her in the shorter Davona Dale at 64-1.  It’s hard to not see that race as the exception not the rule.

15-  ALSO ELIGIBLE – Oaks Lilly (Hills/Bejarano) 50-1: Took 7 tries to break her maiden and even then barely did so.  Beaten by 15 over the strip in the slop in her 2 year old finale.  Probably best if she doesn’t get in and tries a NW2 other than…

The race is very intriguing since there is a lot of early speed and several fillies that would like to track that speed.  Only 3 of the fillies have gone a mile and an 1/8 with only Grace Hall prevailing, smoking And Why Not in the process.  The biggest question is whether or not Broadway’s Alibi is going to have her own way up front; no other speed in the race has not burned fractions like hers – especially over the slop at Gulfstream in her seasonal bow.  That race was only 7 furlongs, however, and she backed off considerably from that pace next out in the mile long Comely.  Eden’s Moon will be the key to the early portion of the race.  If she can set a West Coast style pace early, Broaway’s Alibi will be able to keep up but then the question is for how long?  The answer, I’m afraid, will not be along enough.

The race will probably stay chalky and I say that because the deep closers in the field just don’t seem to be talented enough to overtake even a fast pace with stalkers of this caliber who are highly regarded.  I just don’t see the likes of Hard Not to Like and And Why Not to passing On Fire Baby and Grace Hall unless all go suicidal.  Then the race comes down to the stalkers on the inside.

Both Grace Hall and On Fire Baby can certainly take a step forward and while On Fire Baby has had a bit more spacing between races, it’s obvious from her last that she can fire off the bench.  However, if you’re looking for some value, and aren’t we all, the race looks to set up perfectly for Summer Applause.  She’ll be a bit behind On Fire Baby and Grace Hall and the pace battle up front could drag even the pressing stalkers along faster than they would like.  When the dust settles, I look for Summer Applause to be under the wire first.  She may not end up being the best of these, but she only needs to be the best for one day.

 My picks:

1.      Summer Applause

2.      On Fire Baby

3.      Grace Hall

Best of luck and coming tomorrow, my Derby Selection or, “The Pick Which Must Be Avoided”.  Come back and see who gets my kiss of death!  Or maybe the long streak will finally be over…