Taking Stock of the Breeders' Cup - Wagering

Breeders’ Cup weekend is always interesting.  You can count on upsets and a stirring performance or two.  It also kicks off the beginning of racing’s ‘hot stove’ season when we start talking about the next year’s Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown series, but more about that later in the week.  This is all about assessing the selections for BC11.  Below are my notes from the two days.  I thought about distilling it down and/or polishing it a bit, but there is some charm to the unvarnished notes.

It’s always interesting how the mood can swing through the ups and downs of handicapping.  You can’t win ‘em all and you can’t bet them all and you can’t let your emotions get the best of you.  You pick your spots and try to score, however when you write a blog, or publicly handicap, you have to have an opinion on everything so you pick them all and hope you do well.  For the two day card, I was abysmal.  For the races I actually wagered, I was excellent. Ultimately when you wager it’s about making money and I was fortunate that my poor overall percentage didn’t translate into a money losing weekend, mostly due to the trifecta and exacta in the Juvenile on Saturday.

Here is the recap.

DAY 1

Juvenile Sprint – Not a tough pick and not a particularly profitable one, but a win is a win and Secret Circle felt like a gimme and ran like he was one.  Batting 1.000 so far for the Breeders’ Cup!

Juvenile Fillies Turf – I like Stephanie’s Kitten a lot and when my mom mentioned that we should bet on her because my beloved little sister’s name is Stephanie, the world of handicapping and hunching collided.  She ran like a champion, claimed the led in the lane and went on to victory at 6-1.  LOVE 6-1s.  Still batting 1.000.  This game is easy!

Filly & Mare Sprint – I was taking a stand against favored Turbulent Descent and was spot on.  The only problem was my choice, Switch, started the race a bit too far back and could only close as far as second.  Still, if you bet her across the board you still won money.  Interestingly, my throw in horse for third, Musical Romance, turned out to be the 20-1 winner!  2 for 3 with a second, making money in every race.  Does it get any better?

Juvenile Fillies – Again I tried to take a stand against the favorite and this time I wasn’t nearly as successful.  My Miss Aurelia ran like the favorite and did a nice job.  I said that “if she can rate, she could be deadly”.  She did and she was.  My second choice ran second but my top choice, Northern Passion, finished up the track.  2 for 4.  .500 still isn’t bad.

Filly & Mare Turf – 27-1 Perfect Shirl wins and there was no way on God’s green Earth I would have had her.  My choice, favored Stacelita, gets shellacked and finishes second to last.  2 for 5 and the percentages are not looking near as good.  One race left and I’m going heavy on Royal Delta.

Filly & Mare Classic – Co favorite and my top choice Royal Delta sat off the pace, ran when asked and drew off to an easy victory.  She was 2-1, but I’ll take 2-1 all day long.  

Finishing stats for Day 1: 6 races, 3 wins and 1 second with a positive ROI on the day.  Makes me feel pretty good going into Day 2.

DAY 2

Marathon – My choice, Cease, was in a great spot all the way around and charged to the lead heading through the final turn.  And then it was over…he faded and 41-1 Afleet Again took the kickoff race.  I look back over the PPs and I STILL can’t find a reason to bet Afleet Again.  Race one – off the board.

Juvenile Turf – Finale was finished from jump.  He got off a bit slowly and rather than take back a bit and fall in behind the top 3 sprinters, it appeared as if Velasquez was indecisive on whether to tuck in or go.  By the time he decided to take back he was already five wide for nearly half the race and it was all over but the shouting as Finale predictably faded down the stretch.  Two races, two off the board finishes.

Sprint – Big Drama got away four wide and stayed there.  It looked as if jockey Ramon Dominguez thought better and tried to hold him a bit and track the top 3 but all it did was kill any chances he had of winning the race.  Three races in the books and top choice off the board in each.  Fortunately I do have Amazombie in the Pick 3.

Turf Sprint – I hate five furlong turf races but it turns out that it got me my first win of the day.  Regally Ransom was in good position throughout and when the time came he kicked on and was able to hold on for the win.  It wasn’t a big price win but a win nonetheless.

Dirt Mile – And we regress back again to a top choice fading out of contention when the real running started.  Prior to the race it was reported on ESPN that Steve Assmussen had real concerns about the stickiness of the track and Wilburn’s ability to handle it.  Turns out he was right.  In excellent position throughout, when it was time to run, Wilburn went the wrong way.  One for five today with only four left.

Turf – In the immortal words of Steven Tyler, “same old story, same old song and dance, my friend”.  Await the Dawn set the pace and showed that his Arc mess was exactly where he is right now.  Second choice Sea Moon, and my wager at post time, was able to stay up for second and made a bit of money, but the only choice that matters is the public one, and it was a dog.  Insult to injury: had all Euro tris and supers and Brilliant Speed blows up those wagers as well.  Stay tuned for Union Rags, Gio Ponti and Havre de Grace to spit the bit in the lane as well.  I hate days like this one.  Six in the books and only one winner.

Juvenile – Box it and we got the exacta and trifecta but the straight up win was disrupted by Javier Castallano being kept with Union Rags four to five wide throughout the entire race.  Otherwise, this race shaped up exactly like I had thought.  Creative Cause finishes third.  Cashed plenty in this race and that matters.  Batting average is not helped at all, though, and officially the count is 1 for 7 with a second and two races to go.  ROI, thanks to the $46 exacta and over $200 tri is excellent.

Mile – In a very messy stretch run, Goldikova failed in her attempt to win four in a row.  The winner was 64-1 Court Vision.  Unlike some other boxcar winners, I can see this one.  After some time off he closed like a freight train in his last and was eligible to improve.  He was beaten last out by the second place horse, Turallure, so if you liked one, you may have had them both with Turallure at 30-1.  THAT was a helluva exacta (over $2,000 for $2)!  Goldikova had some issues in the stretch and probably should have been disqualified but she got the superstar call (think smaller strike zone for superstar hitters or Peyton Manning getting more roughing the passer calls) and stayed up for third.  I don’t blame them for making the non-call.  It was close enough to let it go, though with my money across the board on Gio Ponti and the two big longshots finishing 1-2, I probably would have got my money back on the show price as he finished fourth and stood to get moved up.  After all the drama, another off the board finish and the tally is 1 for 8 with a second.  Ugh.  On to the Classic.

Classic –  The buildup was all about Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace which I thought was silly since there was no way that Uncle Mo was going to get a mile and a quarter.  I did think that filly was something special, but when the lights were on and pressure cranked up she was as flat as a pancake.  She was in good position all the way around and was simply flat.  Mo was engaged early for about a mile, but when the real running began he went the wrong way.  The really impressive performance came from Game on Dude who shot to the front and only relinquished the lead in the final strides to Drosselmeyer.  Drosselmeyer and Court Vision are both Breeders’ Cup champions…go figure.  And the nightmare of a day concludes with only one winner in 9 races but thankfully the exotics in the Juvenile prevent the day from being an ROI disaster but I barely keep earnings positive – but at least it was positive.

DAY 1 – 6 races: 3 wins, 1 second

DAY 2 – 9 races: 1 win; 1 second

TOTAL: 15 races: 4 wins, 2 seconds.  26% win with 40 in the money.  Not great but the ROI with the exotic wagers was pretty good at a plus 27% of dollars wagered (every $100 wagered returned $127). Again, pick your spots and hammer it when you feel confident.  Don’t be afraid to pass – there is always another race!

I’m going to let the dust settle for a few days and then be back later in the week with some observations from the 2011 Breeders’ Cup.

Championship Saturday

With a good day one in the books (6 races – 3-1-0; more detailed analysis tomorrow)) attention focuses to day two of the Breeder’s Cup and an orgy of handicapping and racing.  Nice championship races are on the docket today culminating with the showdown between Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace in the Classic, though that is far more than a match race.

My first plan was to head down to Canterbury Park to watch the races there with the outstanding staff and fans, but I am exhausted from driving 22-hours over the past 2-days and will instead be fixated to the television coverage of the event.  The thought of driving another 40 minutes today is simply too daunting!

Best of luck everyone!

Marathon

The day kicks off with the Marathon.  With a purse of only $500,000 is it any wonder that we breed for speed and not stamina?  No one particularly stands out to me in this one so it may be worth taking a stab at a longer shot here.  Could be a nice paying trifecta to start the day.

1.       Cease – In a field where there is no standout, I like this one.  He may have made a premature move in last but dig in and was game throughout.  This is a big step, but none of the others are come in on fire.  I’ll take a stab here.

2.       Birdrun – After a 2 ½ month break perhaps a flat last race was to be expected.  Brooklyn winner may have needed his last and could step up here.

3.       Brigantin – Euro will get the distance; in fact, he’s been running much longer, but questions abound on handling the dirt.

Juvenile Turf

These lightly raced two year olds always can bring a surprising jump up or regression next out which makes them so much fun to handicap.  Trying to predict who may do what as they grow and stretch out is art as much as science.

1.       Finale – Undefeated since moving to the turf his last is a bit deceptive.  While he was all out to win it at the end, he had recovered from a bad start and was hustled to contention.  Still won pulling away.

2.       Shkspeare Shaliyah – Hasn’t had a bad effort yet and stepped up to graded stakes company from his maiden win without batting an eye.

3.       Coalport – mile and a sixteenth may have been a bit much, but seems to love the distance.

Sprint

After going a bit deeper to find some value in the first two races, I’m seduced by the chalk in the Sprint.

1.       Big Drama – Defending champ has been used judiciously this season and to good effect going to 2 for 2 with a “dramatic” 120 Beyer 2 back.  Was merely out for exercise in his last while cruising to a win.

2.       Jackson Bend – I’m not thrilled with the cutback to 6 furlongs, but he has been way too good to ignore and does have speed.

3.       Amazombie – Californian is venturing out for the first time in his career but has been very sharp at home and especially over the Santa Anita dirt.

Turf Sprint

Would have loved to have seen the King Leatherbury trained Ben's Cat in here, but that was not to be.  A full field of 14 should make for an interesting 5 furlongs over the Churchill lawn and I’m sure that California Flag will figure out a way to make this race a nightmare for me just like the last three years!

1.       Regally Ready – love the way he has been improving since the layoff.  Gelding seems to be peaking at just the right time.

2.       California Flag – I thought he might have been done after that poor effort in July, but had an excuse in his comeback race and scored nicely in the Grade 3 Morvich.  I’m sure he’ll find a way to punish me again in the BC!

3.       Hoofit – I like the way that this horse has behaved since arriving in the US and I always pay attention when a horse in good form is supplemented to a big race.  That’s a lot of dough to hand over if you don’t think your horse can win.

Dirt Mile

I like to call this race the “Classic Was Too Tough So We Went to the Mile” race.  It is quite the field and should be a fun one to watch unfold.

1.       Wilburn – won 3 in a row starting with a $35K Optional Claiming, then a small stakes and then beating several in here in the Gr 2 Indiana Derby while earning a career best Beyer.  There is enough speed in the race for him to chase and will be a bear in the lane.

2.       Shakleford – I think this may be his best distance and could certainly win it all.

3.       Trappe Shot – Will love the added distance.  If the stamina is there could close last to win it all.

Turf

Will the Euros keep dominating this race?  Yeah…probably…  I have a soft spot for Brilliant Speed, the 3-year old I saw during some time off at gorgeous Live Oak Plantation but I don’t think he has enough to take this group here.  Interestingly we’ve got fillies in here, a bunch of Euros who all rate highly and some Americans hoping for the best.  I willingly admit this is a race that I’ll watch and not wager since I’ve had little luck betting the invaders in these type of races over the years.

1.       Await the Dawn – I’ll throw out the Arc and go with prior form which has been excellent.

2.       Sarafina – Filly has been very impressive

3.       Sea Moon – May wager on this one to win for some value.  Rough trip in last and will need to fire his best against older for the first time, but certainly possible.

Juvenile

The home race of the winter book favorite for the Derby, though most probably NOT the next Derby winner.

1.       Union Rags – Given his performances and Beyer it’s hard to bet against him.  I think if you get 2-1 that it shows on the ML it’ll be a gift.

2.       Hansen – Sure he hasn’t run against great, but he’s absolutely destroyed those he has faced.  Also could get loose on the lead and that could be trouble for the favorite.

3.       Creative Cause – Has done little wrong and already chalked up two graded stakes wins including the Grade 1 Norfolk last out.

Mile

GOLDIKOVA!  She’s looking for a four-peat in here and, if she does it, will set a mark that is unlikely to be broken for a long time for consecutive BC victories.  Additionally my soft spot for claimers is being poked in here by Compliance Officer, claimed for $25,000 earlier in the year and now shows up in the BC.  I think both can be beaten, however, though I’ll be rooting for Goldi no matter who the choice is.

1.       Gio Ponti – This is the year he finally gets his BC victory after losses to both super mares, Zenyatta and Goldikova.  Comes into the race well and ready to roll.  He shouldn’t be as far back this year and Goldi may be a bit vulnerable as opposed to past years.  And in the end everyone can say, "Well, if Goldi couldn't do it, I'm glad Gio Ponti won!"

2.       Goldikova – She may be vulnerable but she is very impressive and if she doesn’t win will surely get a piece.

3.       Strong Suit – Has been excellent in Europe and maybe just a step below these right now as a 3-year old, but we could be watching next year’s winner.

Classic

We can talk all we want about the last few years not producing any male superhorses and the domination of the two super-mares, but this race is a roll call of any horse that has done anything in the last couple of years.  Suburban and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, Flat Out; 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer; 2011 Belmont winner Ruler on Ice; 2010 Kentucky Derby runner up, Ice Box; Santa Anita Handicap winner, Game on Dude; Jim Dandy and Travers winner Stay Thirsty; phenomenal filly Havre de Grace; Hollywood Gold Cup winner, Headache; 2-year old champion Uncle Mo; and European invader, the well-traveled and winner of over $2 million this year So You Think, are all involved in this event. 

I can’t remember when the event boasted so many champions though this may have more to do with the fact that there has not been a single real standout this past season and everyone feels they have a shot.

1.       Havre de Grace – Hard to ignore that she spanked the trendy choice, Flat Out, two back and came within a nose of being undefeated this year.  The fact that she has finished second twice at a mile and a quarter is my only concern here.

2.       Flat Out – Been working up a storm and the distance is certain to not be an issue.  The one post might be, but barring issues at the start, he should be there at the end.

3.       To Honor and Serve – Of the three year olds in this race, he’s the one I like the most.  Uncle Mo may have distance limitations while Stay Thirsty may have peaked while To Honor and Serve seems to keep getting better.

Championship Friday

It’s Breeders’ Cup time again and Tabby Lane was nice enough to require some rest and relaxation to give me time to focus on the event this year.  I’ll be finishing the drive home from Massachusetts today so I’ll be unlikely to catch all the races on the Friday card but that won’t keep me from picking them and trying to get back on track after a mediocre year with the BC last year.

I’m mixing some value with some chalk and hoping that I hit the right combination!

Good luck everyone and see you tomorrow for picks for Championship Saturday.  I’m going to hit the road and try not to make a left turn here in Indiana!

Juvenile Sprint

The last thing in the world we need is to encourage more early speed from juvenile horses and not let them develop the stamina necessary to maintain a long and healthy career, but here we are…

1.       Secret Circle – Not a great bet with value, but hasn’t been asked to run yet and has been stunning while going 2 for 2.

2.       Jake Mo – need SOME value in the exacta and I love the way this horse tried to rate last out with moderate success.  Black mark? This race is a big step up from what he’s been used to.

3.       Vexor – Had the measure of several in here already and should be able to rate off of a quick early pace.  Has the stuff to win.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

There should be plenty of speed in this race and a cavalry charge finish.

1.       Stephanie’s Kitten – love the way she has been improving every race and like to come off the pace.  She’ll need to step it up in here but looking for some wagering value.

2.       Somali Lemonade – unbeaten and impressive.

3.       Elusive Kate – Euro form is excellent and certainly will have a say in the outcome.

Filly & Mare Sprint

1.       Switch – Solid prep for this one, returns to a distance that she loves and has rivaled the favorite as far as Beyer’s go.

2.       Turbulent Decent – LOVE this filly but need to take a stab since she may be below even money at post time.  Absolutely the one to beat.

3.       Musical Romance – Honestly, just a throw in since I believe the top two are really the only choices in this one.

Juvenile Fillies

Several excellent undefeated fillies in this one.  Makes you wonder if the recent spate of filly domination is ready to continue next year as this group moves forward.

1.       Northern Passion – Barn is 23% turf to dirt and last year I got my head handed to me when turf/synthetic form held up over the dirt.  Would have liked to have seen better dirt works but like the running style for the way this race shapes up.

2.       Weemissfrankie – Undefeated and fought hard for the wins.  She’ll be coming late and hard.

3.       My Miss Aurelia – Has been uber-impressive in victory this year and hasn’t really been asked.  A lot of speed in this race and first time around two turns.  If she rates she could be deadly but could also easily burn out at a low price.  Simply no value.

Filly & Mare Turf

No reason at all to think that the Euros won’t keep dominating in the turf events here.

1.       Stacelita – Has been very impressive in America and has barely broken a sweat.  The extra distance won’t bother her and her running style is well suited.  While she lost to Announce in Europe rather handily, I like that she’s been acclimated to here regardless of recent studies regarding jet lag.

2.       Announce – Should like the distance and is a threat for top honors.

3.       Dubawi Heights – Only loss this year has been to the top choice.  The lead may be too much to maintain against these but should handle the distance better than Nahrain and hold for the 3^rd spot.

Filly & Mare Classic

Yup – I’m still resisting the “Ladies” Classic label.  Havre de Grace in the Classic has opened this one up and made it an interesting race with the top 3 choices having all beaten the each other at times this season.

1.       Royal Delta – Great race two back, has the running style for this field and though dominated last out by Havre de Grace, she was clearly second best. 

2.       Plum Pretty – speed, speed and more speed.  If she gets loose she may run away and hide on this field, but I think the top choice will get the measure of her.

3.       It’s Tricky – Not where she was earlier in the season and a step behind the top two.

Obligatory Breeder's Cup Post - Day 1

Since I've started this blog, I've spanned two Breeder's Cups. The first year I was pretty impressive. Last year, not so much. The days are again upon us and my pores seep with jealousy over all my friends who are gathering in Louisville this year. The game plan was to be there as well, but life intervened and here I sit in Minnesota looking forwarded to the races on TV.

Here is a brief rundown of my choices in the Breeder's Cup, Day 1. For a more detailed analysis, just click on the player on the left and listen to this morning's edition of "On the Air with Owning Racehorses" on Blog Talk Radio.

Marathon

A non-filly race on Day 1, but a wide open one.

1. AU Miner - Should be flying late. Loves the longer distances and will be tough to beat.
2. Alcomo - Winner of the Brooklyn was run down by the top choice in the Greenwood.
3. Great Oak - Like him alot. Would like him more if he won a bit more often.

Juvenile Turf

1. Together - Great mix of experience and talent.
2. Winter Memories - Pace will set up for her, but too chalky to bet.
3. More Than Real - Already showing consistency but may be below the top two.

Sprint

1. Champagne d'Oro - Could be picking up the pieces at the end and the distance seems perfect.
2. Rightly So - FAST!!
3. Evening Jewel - Love this veteran, but will be facing a pace she hasn't seen in a while.

Juvenile

1. Awesome Feather - Undefeated, untested, getting better with distance.
2. Tell A Kelly - Can she handle real dirt?
3. Believe in AP - We'll see how much talent she has under that hand ride in Philly.

Turf

1. Midday - Defending champion is simply amazing.
2. Harmonious - Won four or five including score in the QEII last out.
3. Red Desire - Japanese filly should improve after last.

Classic

1. Blind Luck - Very classy three year old may be too much for these at the end.
2. Havre de Grace - Rival goes 1- 3 against the top choice.
3. Life At Ten - Older mare will be under pressure; tough to hold her speed against these.

Best of luck everyone!!