Friday, November 4, 2011

Championship Friday

It’s Breeders’ Cup time again and Tabby Lane was nice enough to require some rest and relaxation to give me time to focus on the event this year.  I’ll be finishing the drive home from Massachusetts today so I’ll be unlikely to catch all the races on the Friday card but that won’t keep me from picking them and trying to get back on track after a mediocre year with the BC last year.

I’m mixing some value with some chalk and hoping that I hit the right combination!

Good luck everyone and see you tomorrow for picks for Championship Saturday.  I’m going to hit the road and try not to make a left turn here in Indiana!

Juvenile Sprint

The last thing in the world we need is to encourage more early speed from juvenile horses and not let them develop the stamina necessary to maintain a long and healthy career, but here we are…

1.       Secret Circle – Not a great bet with value, but hasn’t been asked to run yet and has been stunning while going 2 for 2.
2.       Jake Mo – need SOME value in the exacta and I love the way this horse tried to rate last out with moderate success.  Black mark? This race is a big step up from what he’s been used to.
3.       Vexor – Had the measure of several in here already and should be able to rate off of a quick early pace.  Has the stuff to win.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

There should be plenty of speed in this race and a cavalry charge finish.

1.       Stephanie’s Kitten – love the way she has been improving every race and like to come off the pace.  She’ll need to step it up in here but looking for some wagering value.
2.       Somali Lemonade – unbeaten and impressive.
3.       Elusive Kate – Euro form is excellent and certainly will have a say in the outcome.

Filly & Mare Sprint

1.       Switch – Solid prep for this one, returns to a distance that she loves and has rivaled the favorite as far as Beyer’s go.
2.       Turbulent Decent – LOVE this filly but need to take a stab since she may be below even money at post time.  Absolutely the one to beat.
3.       Musical Romance – Honestly, just a throw in since I believe the top two are really the only choices in this one.

Juvenile Fillies

Several excellent undefeated fillies in this one.  Makes you wonder if the recent spate of filly domination is ready to continue next year as this group moves forward.

1.       Northern Passion – Barn is 23% turf to dirt and last year I got my head handed to me when turf/synthetic form held up over the dirt.  Would have liked to have seen better dirt works but like the running style for the way this race shapes up.
2.       Weemissfrankie – Undefeated and fought hard for the wins.  She’ll be coming late and hard.
3.       My Miss Aurelia – Has been uber-impressive in victory this year and hasn’t really been asked.  A lot of speed in this race and first time around two turns.  If she rates she could be deadly but could also easily burn out at a low price.  Simply no value.

Filly & Mare Turf

No reason at all to think that the Euros won’t keep dominating in the turf events here.

1.       Stacelita – Has been very impressive in America and has barely broken a sweat.  The extra distance won’t bother her and her running style is well suited.  While she lost to Announce in Europe rather handily, I like that she’s been acclimated to here regardless of recent studies regarding jet lag.
2.       Announce – Should like the distance and is a threat for top honors.
3.       Dubawi Heights – Only loss this year has been to the top choice.  The lead may be too much to maintain against these but should handle the distance better than Nahrain and hold for the 3rd spot.

Filly & Mare Classic

Yup – I’m still resisting the “Ladies” Classic label.  Havre de Grace in the Classic has opened this one up and made it an interesting race with the top 3 choices having all beaten the each other at times this season.

1.       Royal Delta – Great race two back, has the running style for this field and though dominated last out by Havre de Grace, she was clearly second best. 
2.       Plum Pretty – speed, speed and more speed.  If she gets loose she may run away and hide on this field, but I think the top choice will get the measure of her.
3.       It’s Tricky – Not where she was earlier in the season and a step behind the top two.

1 comment:

Valerie Grash said...

Excellent selections, Ted!!