BC/HRF Fantasy Charity 'Capping Contest Week 6 - Summer Stakes

With closing weekend at Canterbury Park last week, I was a little too overwhelmed to get a post up prior to last week’s Hello Race Fane/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy ‘Capping Contest.  Turns out it was too bad because 1) I totally nailed it and 2) totally wussed out on my wager.

To recap briefly before moving ahead to the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, last week’s race was the Louisiana Super Derby for 3-year olds contested at a mile and an eighth.  I thought there was a lot of speed in this race and that it was going to be tough for the favored Blueskiesandrainbows to carry the field the entire way and Bourbon Courage looked to be the most likely closer to be able to win.  Sure enough, Hero of Order hooked up with Blueskiesandrainbows and that was all she wrote…eventually.  Bourbon Courage exploded in the stretch and won by 5.  Should have been a nice score paying $7.20 – if I had the nads to bet him to win.  After being blistered a bit early in the contest, it turns out I should have had a shot of bourbon for some courage before placing the wager.  I made my wager to place and it cost me 32 points and, while I moved into 4^th place, I would have edged Teresa Genaro and sat in 2^nd had I the courage of my convictions.

Ernie Munick still sits atop the leader board on the strength of the 1^st week exacta, Teresa is in second and Bobby Flay is in third.  I’m not shut out AND within shouting distance.  I really can’t ask for more at this stage.

On to the Summer Stakes.

In my opinion, these 2-year old stakes are tough.  There is a lot of improvement and development that goes on through the 2 and 3-year old years and many times these races can be decided on who has improved the most since last out.

Only Archer Hill has gone a mile or more (this race is at a mile on the turf) and he did it splendidly, taking an overland trip in a mile and a sixteenth maiden at Saratoga on August  2 to win under “hand urging.”  Given that performance it’s easy to see why he was installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. 

Sentimentally I’m rooting for I’m Boundtoscore, an Even the Score progeny who hasn’t seen longer than 5.5 furlongs yet.  That said, other Even the Scores have had no trouble with a piece of ground and he has competed at higher levels than the others – and hasn’t missed the board in 4 career starts.  I also like his proclivity to close.  There are a lot of horses in this field that want to be on or near the front end and, as in last week’s Super Derby, there could be a pace battle up front that could fry several contenders.  Unfortunately, Archer Hill doesn’t look to be one of them.

Some of the speedsters have a lot to commend them: Indiano Jones broke his maiden in impressive fashion after trouble in his opener; Mercenary has had nothing but trouble but still has been able to score; Are You Kidding Me has been able to win from slightly off the pace and been impressive moving longer; and Bear’s Furr won at first asking on the engine while having trouble in Monmouth’sColin Stakes last out, moving up to 3^rd after being bothered.

I would like to be able to split my wager into a $10 exacta key with Archer Hill over Are You Kidding Me and I’m Boundtoscore but I can only use an extacta box so I’m going with the more accomplished runner and hope that he can get the distance.

WAGER: $10 Exacta Box – Archer Hill and I’m Boundtoscore

BC/HRF Fantasy Cap: Race 3 - The Alabama

At least I’m not alone.

That’s what I’m telling myself in the Fantasy Capping Contest for charity sponsored by Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup anyway. 

Ernie Munick still leads off the strength of his Whitney exacta.  Bobby Flay picked up a few more points and he sits alone in 2^nd with 100.  Chris Rossi and Team Rotondo are tied at 89 with JJ Hysell alone at 58 and three tied at 50.  Blissfully there are 11 other shut out, but I’m aiming to change that in the Alabama at Saratoga this afternoon.

It seems to really come down to two horses: Questioning and Grace Hall.  Grace Hall is probably the best in this field but should Questioning shake lose early, she’s going to be mighty tough to catch.  I wasn’t thrilled about going exacta box again, but I’m really convinced that these two are simply better than the rest, so that is how I go:

EXACTA BOX: Grace Hall and Questioning

It won’t pay a lot, but it should get me off the shnide!

If you’re in the contest…good luck!

BC/HRF Week 2: The Fourstardave Handicap

When the Whitney ended I was very concerned…I was shut out.  Ron the Greek’s rally came up just short and settled for second and win wager was gone.  I had zero points for the first weekend of the Hello Race Fans charity fantasy handicapping league on the Breeders’ Cup Fantasy ‘Capping site.  How embarrassing.

Turns out, not so much.  Only three folks managed to score points on the day with JJ Hysell posting a 29 for his show wager on Ron the Greek, Bobby Flay picking up 70 with his place wager on Ft Larned and the big smack down on the day, Ernie Munick popping the exacta for 382.50.  The rest of us ended up with squat.

It was only the first race of the series, but Munick smacked the group hard with his glove on this one.  Not the end of the world, but that’s a big number to put up on week one.  He has options.  He can continue to go hard for the big money or scale it back a bit with place or show wagers hoping to continue to add to the bankroll and build up that point total.  I have no such flexibility.

However, I refuse to go into panic mode yet.  The problem with the Fourstardave Handicap today at Saratoga is that I really like Wise Dan a lot and he’s fixin’ to be at low odds (sorry…was in rural Iowa most of last week) which doesn’t bode well as far as starting to close any gap.  I need something with perhaps a bit of a price but has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

I almost went with a straight win wager on Guys Reward.  Winner of three straight, lover of the distance, though a 13+ length loser to Wise Dan in the Ben Ali, I really like him over this turf course.  In his eight turf starts he’s been in the exacta in half and he promises to be a decent price here.  I didn’t think he was good enough to beat Wise Dan, but should be in a great position to stalk he and Get Stormy (and perhaps Upgrade if quick enough) should the pace get a little heated.

That got me thinking a bit more.  If I think that Wise Dan is the best but I think that Guys Reward could possibly make a race out of it late, maybe I should go with the exacta wager and perhaps cut the lead in half?  There is considerable risk that I won’t get there and will fall even further behind which will get me closer to panic mode but this is all about risk and reward.  It’s also all about whether or not Guys Reward can step up his game a notch.  If anyone can get him to step it up a bit, it’s Dale Romans.  Outfinishing Data Link won’t be easy, but it’s doable and if Get Stormy can’t hang up front, then I have a chance.  At a price.  And that’s all I can ask for. 

Fantasy Wager: $10 exacta box of Wise Dan and Guys Reward