Saturday, August 11, 2012

BC/HRF Week 2: The Fourstardave Handicap

When the Whitney ended I was very concerned…I was shut out.  Ron the Greek’s rally came up just short and settled for second and win wager was gone.  I had zero points for the first weekend of the Hello Race Fans charity fantasy handicapping league on the Breeders’ Cup Fantasy ‘Capping site.  How embarrassing.
Turns out, not so much.  Only three folks managed to score points on the day with JJ Hysell posting a 29 for his show wager on Ron the Greek, Bobby Flay picking up 70 with his place wager on Ft Larned and the big smack down on the day, Ernie Munick popping the exacta for 382.50.  The rest of us ended up with squat.

It was only the first race of the series, but Munick smacked the group hard with his glove on this one.  Not the end of the world, but that’s a big number to put up on week one.  He has options.  He can continue to go hard for the big money or scale it back a bit with place or show wagers hoping to continue to add to the bankroll and build up that point total.  I have no such flexibility.

However, I refuse to go into panic mode yet.  The problem with the Fourstardave Handicap today at Saratoga is that I really like Wise Dan a lot and he’s fixin’ to be at low odds (sorry…was in rural Iowa most of last week) which doesn’t bode well as far as starting to close any gap.  I need something with perhaps a bit of a price but has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

I almost went with a straight win wager on Guys Reward.  Winner of three straight, lover of the distance, though a 13+ length loser to Wise Dan in the Ben Ali, I really like him over this turf course.  In his eight turf starts he’s been in the exacta in half and he promises to be a decent price here.  I didn’t think he was good enough to beat Wise Dan, but should be in a great position to stalk he and Get Stormy (and perhaps Upgrade if quick enough) should the pace get a little heated.

That got me thinking a bit more.  If I think that Wise Dan is the best but I think that Guys Reward could possibly make a race out of it late, maybe I should go with the exacta wager and perhaps cut the lead in half?  There is considerable risk that I won’t get there and will fall even further behind which will get me closer to panic mode but this is all about risk and reward.  It’s also all about whether or not Guys Reward can step up his game a notch.  If anyone can get him to step it up a bit, it’s Dale Romans.  Outfinishing Data Link won’t be easy, but it’s doable and if Get Stormy can’t hang up front, then I have a chance.  At a price.  And that’s all I can ask for. 

Fantasy Wager: $10 exacta box of Wise Dan and Guys Reward

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