Saturday's Breeders' Cup Thoughts

The Great Race Place

Some random thoughts regarding Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup:

- No matter how good the television coverage may be, nothing beats being at the races;

- Speed held.  You didn't HAVE to be on the lead, but you needed to be close to have a chance.  "Break and gun" was the strategy of the day - you were NOT coming from far off the pace today;

- Gorgeous southern California beats Minnesota winter...at least for a few days.  The traffic out here would drive me insane outside of a week;

- Beholder is the real deal - she was magnificent;

- Every horse looks like a million bucks.

- Santa Anita is indeed one of the prettiest places in America to watch a race.

- The crowd was decent but certainly manageable.  I never had to wait more than one or two people deep in a line to make a wager.  We'll see what today brings, but day 1 was right on the money.

- I was close but no cigar WAY to often.  Regrouped after the races and back at it Saturday.

And on to Saturday's picks:

JUVENILE FILLIES

It really looks like on paper that Artemis Agrotera is just better than the rest.  I would tend to agree but in looking for some value, I really like Untapable.  She has nondescript works which makes me a bit nervous, but she has stalking speed, back to back wins, was unsettled early in her last and still managed to win the Grade 2 Pocahontas at this distance.  A win at this distance is big for a baby, in my opinion.

If Rosie can have her settled early she could be in line for a big final run at the favorite coming for home.

Sentimental choice is Canterbury maiden breaker Designer Legs...though I won't use her on my ticket.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Dank is the choice for most in here and it's certainly easy to see why.  She came over from a solid campaign in Europe and dusted the Beverly D field at Arlington impressively.

Marketing Mix has been one of my favorite mares but I think she's outclassed in here, which makes me a bit sad.

I'm going with what I perceive to be as the only real speed in the race, Laughing.  Lezcano has ridden her enough to know how to ration that speed and this race could set up very nicely for her, especially breaking from the center.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

How do you not love Groupie Doll?  She has been magnificent and has had a wonderful career but her 2013 has not been near as dominant as her 2012 campaign and she's certainly beatable here.

One also has to love the way Dance to Bristol is in every race.  You leave this filly out of your exotics at your own peril - 13 of 14 races in the exacta.  Remarkable consistency.

My choice in this one is, however, Sweet Lulu.  Sweet Lulu, a 3-year old, has started her career by beating up on older.  When she stepped way up into graded stakes company she stuck with her own age and took the Grade 1 Test at the Spa.  Next out, going two turns, she hung tough with Distaff contender Close Hatches before the mile and a sixteenth became just too tough.  Dropping back into a sprint she should be tough and with a morning line of 8-1, should have some value as well.

TURF SPRINT

Caracorado, a former claimer, is a great story and Jim Rome's Mizdirection has been a remarkable lady who beat the boys here last year, but I'm looking at Chips All In in the turf sprint.  The colt won over the downhill turf course in the Grade 3 Eddie D and should be able to have the location behind the leaders to get first run.  Between Mizdirection, Rennesgotzip and Tightend Touchdown, there should be plenty of early speed to run at.

JUVENILE

There are plenty of nice babies in here but I'm looking at Mike Smith to extend on his Breeders' Cup record riding victories with Tap It Rich.  The ridgeling had a terrible start and was wide throughout in his debut and was still able to win by a comfortable 4 1/4 lengths earning a stellar 89 Beyer Speed Figure.  He may not have the experience of the others in big races, and that may show, but if he's calm and relaxed, he could light this field up.

TURF

I love Point of Entry.  I love everything that Shug has been able to do with him,  This horse was on the bench from last year's BC Turf until February when he came back and beat Animal Kingdom in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  Then he waited until June to run in the Grade 1 Manhattan, where he handled Optimizer.  Now he's pointed to the BC Turf.  This is his year to go 3 for 3 and take home a cool million for the effort.

SPRINT

Sprints are always hard to figure for me with horses of this caliber.  It's hard to come off the pace and the good ones can hold their speed for a long way.  I'm not thinking that any of the early speedsters (Private Zone, Sum of the Parts, Trinniberg) are going to just run away with this one so maybe a solid pace stalker could jump up and get it.  That's why I'm going with Justin Phillip.  He had some trouble in his last and still just missed catching Private Zone in the Grade 1 Vosburgh and I'm hopeful that Private Zone will have a bit more pressure early to weaken him up for the other Zayat runner.  He best be close, though...

MILE & CLASSIC

Now I get chalky.  I really think that the two best horses in training right now are Wise Dan and Game on Dude.  In the Mile, while Wise Dan was upset last out by Silver Max, I think that Obviously and Bright Thought will put enough pressure on him early to soften him up for ol' Dano.

Game on Dude is just better this year. Now you can certainly pile on and say that he spent virtually all year in California, but when he did go east in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, he held off Clubhouse Ride and Ron the Greek to notch another win.  Last year's beaten favoritism probably still stings for Baffert and Smith and they'll be sure he is razor sharp for this.  He could be softened up early by some of the other speed in here, but I think he's just THAT much better this year.

Good luck, enjoy the day and follow me on Twitter (@tlgrevelis) for some updates live from the 30th anniversary Breeders' Cup from Santa Anita.

Breeders' Cup - Day 2

Day One was a mitigated disaster: yeah there wasn’t a single win on the card for me but my top choices did finish 2^nd three times and 3^rd twice over the course of the six races.  If I was a show better this would be outstanding; as a win/place better…not so great, but mitigated rather than unmitigated. The biggest disappointment on the day for me was the Ladies Classic where I had longshot Include Me Out in the exacta with winner Royal Delta.  Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.  It was a microcosm of a tough day.

BUT…there is Day 2.  As a horseplayer we always live to fight another day and “another day” is today.

Juvenile Turf

Several really nice graded stakes winners in this field including Noble Tune (Gr 3 Pilgrim), I’m Boundtoscore (Gr 2 Summer), Balance the Books (Gr 3 Bourbon) and Joha (Gr 1 Breeders’ Futurity).  You can even through in European Group 3 Solario Stakes winner Fantastic Moon and Group 3 Acomb Stakes winner Dundonnell into that group.  There are also a variety of running styles in here but only one of the really classy horses that I would consider good early speed and that’s Joha.  He just missed wiring the field in the Grade 2 With Anticipation before his gate to wire score in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. 

My Choice: Joha

Filly & Mare Sprint

Groupie Doll.  Moving on…

Dirt Mile

This turned out to be quite the fun little race.  Fan favorite Shackleford will lead the field to the post after a couple of disappointing efforts post Met Mile triumph.  Emcee, just on his outside has only failed to record a triple digit Beyer number in only two of his career starts.  Mystic Lake Derby runner up Delegation will try dirt for the first time off back-to-back wins over the artificial surface at Woodbine and Jersey Town comes in after surprising just about everyone (including Shakleford) in the Grade 1 Kelso with ease.  Shackleford and Emcee both like being on or near the led early and, unfortunately for them, so do Fed Biz, Delegation and perhaps even Second City.  All that speed could set things up for the improving Jersey Town to surprise them again.  I don’t think that Jersey Town is the best horse in the race, but ask The Fugue if the best horse always wins…

My Choice: Jersey Town

Turf Sprint

Not a fan of this race, though it does appear to be a bit wide open and could present a decent wagering opportunity if you really have a strong feeling.  This is one race I do not have an overly strong feeling about, but may jump on Unbridled’s Note if the price is right.  Steve Asmussen has Great Mills in to oush along the pacesetters like California Flag (if I DON’T pick him, he wins – so be forewarned) and Renneesgotzip.  Normally you could throw Bridgetown into that mix but in the Grade 3 Woodford he sat off the pace a bit and came charging late to blow past Great Mills to win that race.  The hope here is that Bridgetown, second off a layoff, feels a bit more keen than last time and tries to take to the lead.  Unbridled’s Note won’t be too far behind and will pick up the pieces.

My Choice: Unbridled’s Note

Juvenile

The Juvy looks like it comes down to undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee Shanghai Bobby and Bob Baffert trained Power Broker who appears to have figured out this racing thing in the Grade 1 Front Runner.  Power Broker is going to want to sit off an early pace while Shanghai Bobby will want to stay close to, if not on, the early lead.  Power Broker’s connections have Title Contender breaking from the one hole and, while certainly not out of his depth in here, will certainly ensure a solid early pace to run at.  Will Bobby take the bait and go or be able to sit off of Title Contender’s flank until it’s time to run?  While Shanghai Bobby is stretching out, the distance should not be an issue while Power Broker has a win at this distance AND over this course.  This one is a toss up: do you prefer the local angle or the undefeated colt that has yet to throw in a clunker?

My Choice: Shanghai Bobby (but narrowly)

Turf

A nice mixed contingent in the turf with some very nice Euros squaring off against an American entry that is seemingly getting stronger with every start.  A nice colt prior to trying the turf, Point of Entry has turned into a monster once he was introduced to the sod by trainer Shug McGaughey.  Carrying the fabled colors of the Phipps stable, Point of Entry is on quite a roll, winning his last five races: four graded stakes, the last three of which were grade ones.  His Beyer numbers have increased with every race during that streak and he’s come from far back and from just off the pace to tally the wins.  Prior to shipping he threw two bullet works and is as sharp as can be heading into the biggest race of his career.

My Choice: Point of Entry

Sprint

There is surely enough early speed in the race to ensure a fair trip around the oval which really leads you to two horses: Amazombie or The Lumber Guy.  Do you believe in the local prep and Amazombie needing that last after a layoff to sharpen up for this one or do you buy into The Lumber Guy’s amazing 110 Beyer in the Grade 1 Vosburgh off the bench?  The Lumber Guy had been training superbly before leaving New York and sprinting certainly seems to be his forte.  Amazombie, who I’ve heard has been called the best dirt sprinter in North America, emerged from seclusion for 1:08.3 to take the Bing Crosby over the artificial surface at Del Mar before heading back to get ready for this race.  He certainly loves being home in California and if he did indeed need one race before the Sprint, Amazombie will be tough to beat – especially with all time BC winningest rider Mike Smith aboard.

My Choice: The Lumber Guy (BUT…and this is a big but here…should the locally prepped horses earlier on the card keep outperforming their Eastern counterparts, I’ll be on Amazombie here)

Mile

US v. Europe.  The best turf miler in America, Wise Dan, takes on the second best turf miler in Europe, Excelebration.  In his last 10 starts, Excelebration has won 6, placing in three and third in the other.  The winning horse each and every time?  Some git named Frankel!  But does losing to a super horse by  combined 16 lengths automatically make you a world beater as well?  I think if they were Affirmed/Alydar type duals then I think the case would be stronger.

Wise Dan has won four of five starts this year and narrowly missed an undefeated season when he just couldn’t get there in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster ...on dirt.  Wise Dan has been remarkably consistent this year winning each mile race with ease and recording solid Beyer figures in each race. 

Both horses need some speed to run at since neither is going to take this field wire to wire.  A horse that will try is Obviously.  Ridden by Joe Talamo, Obviously has won three straight in frontrunning fashion, including the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile and the Grade 2 Arroyo Secco Mile over this very course.  There isn’t a whole lot of speed in this race to go with Obviously so Talamo will gun to the lead and try and hold on the charge.  If he can succeed at slowing down the middle quarters, it will be tough for the top two to catch him since he is really no slouch himself.

My Choice: Obviously (he might not be the best, but he may get the best trip)

Classic

I know it’s been said a million times already, but this Classic is the deepest I’ve ever seen.  Every entrant is a graded stakes winner: many multiple and most just this year.  Of Flat Out, Alpha, Fort Larned, Game on Dude, Richard’s Kid, Ron the Greek, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve – one of them has to finish eighth!!  We could all make a case for just about any horse in here winning and I could agree with the justification.  I need to make a pick here because I have to, but there is a very, very good chance that I’ll be watching this one without a ticket in my hand.

My Choice: Game On Dude (going with who I think is the best horse – but this will be a test for sure)

In the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping Challenge I need a high priced exacta, so my contest pick will be the exacta box of Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned (I TOLD you, I need a high payer).

Best of luck everyone!

Celebrating 25 Years of Minnesota Racing

On June 26 Canterbury Park officially celebrated 25 years of racing in Minnesota. In 1985 Canterbury started life as Canterbury Downs. In those days, Santa Anita Operating Company held the management contract and helped fill the backside with horses conditioned by legends with names like Van Berg, Lukas, Mott and Nafzger. In fact in that inaugural season, Hall of Famer Jack Van Berg was the leading trainer. A couple of jockeys who would also grace the Hall of Fame were part of the original colony as well: Mike Smith and Sandy Hawley.

The Downs ran well for a few years but the advent of the state lottery and a newly developed Native American casino combined with Ladbrooke’s trainwreck management to push Canterbury over the brink of solvency and the track shuttered in 1992. Sadly this was the same year that Minnesota breds were celebrated for the first time on their own special day at the Downs. The outlook for those Minn-breds looked bleak.

The track remained closed for nearly two and a half years and reopened as Canterbury Park in May of 1995. Local businessmen Curt and Randy Sampson and Dale Schenian purchased the Downs and formed Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (as of market close on July 1 the stock price is at $7.82). Over time the Park has developed and grown, adding a card club in 2000 and renovating that card club for the 25th anniversary season. The Claiming Crown was established here in 1999 and has been back virtually every year since with only a couple of exceptions. The Minnesota Festival of Champions was renewed and is a now a fixture the last weekend on the racing calendar.

Saturday was a day to celebrate and reflect on the sometimes turbulent 25 years of pari-mutuel wagering in North Star State. Races all day were named in honor of the 1985 executive staff, original horsemen and even Kraus Anderson, the builders of the Downs and partners in the renovations since. Special homage was paid in the 6th race to Canterbury’s own “Brooks Brothers” (actually nephew and uncle): Brooks Hauser and Brooks Fields (who also has a stake named in his memory). Fields was President and CEO and Hauser was Senior Vice President and Treasurer. Both were extremely successful businessmen in their own right and were instrumental in bringing racing to Shakopee, MN. In that race the inimitable Paul Allen relinquished the microphone duties to original track announcer Tony Bentley for another blast of 80’s nostalgia that matched the 80’s tunes that were blaring over the loudspeaker between races all day.

The weather was excellent, though humid, but the crowd was disappointingly sparse. Official attendance was listed at 3,564 and paled in comparison with the Father’s Day crowd of 12,129 that graced the apron the week before. Certainly there was something nice about the lack of lines and the bumping around, but that feeling was fleeting. We need the crowds and I’d much prefer to battle a packed house. Those in attendance were treated to a print of a poster by renowned racing artist PEB which featured many of the characters that have graced the Shakopee oval over the years including our very own trainer, Bernell Rhone. It was a nice keepsake and looks great with the winner’s circle photos on the wall.

As the track moves towards an uncertain future facing a tough economy and competition from Native American casinos it was nice to take a breath and celebrate the first 25 years of racing in Minnesota. Here’s hoping we’re still racing at America’s best mid-level racetrack in another 25.

Weekend Wrap: Tabby Wins & More!

Tabby Lane (Even the Score - Keeley Chay - Rodeo) scored her first time out for the 1st 2010 Claiming Group yesterday at Tampa Bay Downs. She was the co-second choice in the betting and ran like a champ. She broke well and jockey Dean Butler kept her off a steady pace until entering the top of the lane when she angled outward, had a clear run at the leaders and just went on. As you can see above, Dean had put the whip away before the wire. Track announcer Richard Grunder called her "much the best" as she cruised to the 3 1/4 length victory in the Allowance/$16,000 Optional Claiming race.

The e-mails among the group were flying not long after the official sign went up. As exciting as it was to win, it was almost more exciting to see the excitement of the first time owners in our group. I wish I could say that it's always this easy - claim a horse, push her up in class, nail a win, next! But as any of us that watch or are involved in this game know, it's not that easy and we need to enjoy the moment and try to move forward with an objective eye. She'll move up next as we try and find her ceiling. It should be an interesting ride!

The win was a thrill, as all wins are, but it was made a bit more special because of it occurring with a full field of competitive horses including several that had been very competitive at higher levels. It really starts the dream process flowing. That said, I know how important it is to stay in check as any and every plan can change in a moment. For the next few days, though, I'm going to enjoy the win and not think of her future, only her now.

Zenyatta Wins; Rachel Loses

In the surprise of the day, Rachel Alexandra lost in her debut seemingly running out of gas in the stretch while battling the John Sherriffs trained Zardana in Louisiana. This certainly isn't the death knell for Rachel's career and one race does not a season make, but while you can point to Zardana being three for three on the dirt in Brazil, Rachel really should have whipped this field. I guess if you take her average Beyer and only give her 80% of it (that's about how close to 100% Steve Asmussen said she was, I believe), she's right in with the others - if she was truly at 80%. Certainly Borel didn't have her all out to try and win the race. He had her wrapped up pretty tight for most of the race and who knows how much energy that took out of her, but still...

Zenyatta made no bones about how great a mare she is by weaving her way through the stretch to capture the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita. A Tweet I saw last night, and I couldn't find it again this morning to attribute, basically wondered aloud if Mike Smith is gong to get her beat someday. I laughed a bit because I was thinking the same thing. But since she runs - and wins - every race is the same way, if she finally losses can you blame it on the jockey? I always think that I'd prefer to see her mid-pack to give herself less opportunity to get blocked, but she always manages to find the wire. If you recall, that was one of my strikes against picking her in the Classic last Fall. She always overcomes and always perseveres, if she doesn't once, does that then become Mike Smith's fault?

Derby Picture Any Clearer?

Not in my mind. I thought that by the time we got to this point on the Kentucky Derby trail we'd have a standout or two that really looked like they'd be the favorite at post time. The wins of Sidney's Candy, Odysseus and Lookin At Lucky didn't do much to cement them in favoritism for the Derby. The performances by Odysseus and Lookin At Lucky, especially, were thrilling to watch, but they didn't dominate their competition. You certainly can say that there cannot be any questions about Lookin At Lucky's dirt ability and it's hard not to love Odysseus's stunning performance in the Tampa Bay, but I don't think either taps them as the clear cut Derby favorite.

That begs the question: Are this year's contenders evenly matched or just not that impressive?

Jockeys 3 & 4

In a few hours we'll be able to catch parts 3 & 4 of "Jockeys" on Animal Planet at 9PM Eastern. There has been quite a bit of feedback from folks across the TBA on whether the series is a hit or a miss. I kind of fall somewhere in between. Rumor has it that ratings-wise, the show has done pretty well for a cable show. In my opinion, tonight is the real key. Did the show hold that audience or was it a one and done? Were too many viewers (like my wife) turned off by the seemingly endless shots of horses going down on the track? Or, were viewers drawn in by the Mike/Chantal love story; by Joe Talamo's desire; by the athletic prowess displayed by 110 pound athletes piloting 1500 pound animals at 35 miles per hour? If they were, were they drawn in enough to tune in another week?

I know hard cores like me will still watch. I love the game, the animals and the human athletes. It's admittedly hard for me to be too critical of anything that gets more folks involved with racing on some level. I hope we see more strategy detailed going forward. I'd like to see a race dissected by owner, trainer and jockey after the fact so folks can see how split second decisions made on the racetrack affect the outcome of the race. As an example, last summer Fizzy Pop ran a game second in a race. He came from around the pack in the stretch at Canterbury and just had too much ground to make up to win. Between races one of our partners spoke to jock Dean Butler about the race and Dean was beating himself up for not staying on the rail because a hole opened up after he angled out. Had he stayed on the rail, Fiz could've won the race...according to Dean. In a way, I'm glad he felt badly because it shows his desire to win. On the other hand, if the hole did not open up we never would have made it up to second. I don't second guess those decisions and I trust Dean to make to the right ones. He may think he didn't in that instance, I will maintain that he did given the possible risks involved - I'll take a second over a fifth any day!

In any event, I don't know if we'll see some of this or not. I do know that tonight we'll get a glimpse at the hardest battle jocks have to fight: the battle with the scale. In our outmoded American model of weights (Europeans race slightly heavier - healthier for the riders, I am sure), jocks need to keep their weight at nearly absurd levels while trying to maintain strength and quickness of reflexes required to win a race and compete safely. In episode four the show will come back to the demands of having a relationship with a fellow rider (the Mike/Chantal story) as well as the burgeoning rivalry between Talamo and Gryder.

I'm looking forward to it. We'll see if the high number of viewers for episodes 1 & 2 are too...

Jockeys - The Series

Full disclosure out of the gate: I was asked if I would be interested in promoting "Jockeys" which is premiering on Animal Planet Friday, February 6 at 9 PM Eastern. I did so without compensation. I also didn't hesitate to say yes.

You may remember a while back I posted about our little corner of heaven (racing) having it's own reality show. Well, little did I know it was already in progress and the fruits of that labor start airing Friday night.

I think it's important for our game to have exposure. In my opinion it's also important that there is some story behind the scenes to help capture some public attention. I agree with the folks that argue that more has to be done on the wagering side in order to help grow handle as handle is what drives purses and keeps our engine running. But there ARE stories here. Interesting stories that can draw you in and hopefully engage you in our sport. Some of the biggest responses we get are the ones involving compelling stories of everyday heroes. Sure, the link highlighted in the previous sentence was aimed at horse people, but the response - for me - was fantastic. We need a well rounded approach to help resurrect racing and I think "Jockeys" is small step toward that end.

In summary, "Jockeys" will be covering seven jockeys in the Southern California riding colony: Mike Smith, Joe Talamo, Chantal Sutherland, Alex Solis, Aaron Gryder, Kayla Stra and Jon Court; during the 30-day 2008 Oak Tree at Santa Anita Meet.

From the Animal Planet press release:

"Cameras take viewers on and off the track – from their homes to the jock’s room where we see how these athletes physically and emotionally prepare for each race. At the starting gate, the anxious energy of the horse and jockey must be contained within their stall. With jockeys and horses fatally injured each year, the ambulance engines are on and ready for action at a moment’s notice. In the stands, revelers wait with baited breath to see which horse-and-rider team takes the lead…and if everyone finishes safely.

The drama for these jockeys doesn’t end when the race is finished. Off the track, gorgeous jockey Chantal Sutherland makes the emotional decision to leave her family in Canada for California to be closer to her boyfriend fellow jockey Mike Smith and ride at Santa Anita racetrack. Joe Talamo’s high school girlfriend ponders whether or not she can be in a relationship where each phone call could mean Joe has had a bone-breaking – or worse -- deadly fall. Family man Aaron Gryder worries that his children will grow up afraid that their daddy can be hurt at any given moment, but he’s driven by finding the next horse that will take him to “the big time.'"

The home site for the series is http://animal.discovery.com/tv/jockeys/. Click around for a bit. Check out the trailer - it will whet your appetite. If you're new to the game, my guess is that you are going to learn an awful lot and you'll gain a ton of respect for these folks and the dangers they face each and every day going to work (seriously, how many of us go to work with an ambulance following us around). If you're an industry vet, it will confirm all that you know already - these guys and gals may be, pound for pound, the best, strongest and gutsiest professional athletes on the planet. Friday night they'll be on Animal Planet. Be sure to check them out.