Racing Put on the Defensive - Again

I’d love to just recap my picks yesterday (not bad but not great), throw in Maryjean’s win Friday night (just great!) and add in the wonderful hospitality of just about everyone at Hawthorne Race Course where we spent the Breeders’ Cup on Saturday. 

I’m no Chromie, but California Chrome ran big.  Main Sequence and Untapable were tremendous.  The upsets and payoffs throughout the BC were amazing!

However, the cloud hanging over the Classic unfortunately needs some discussion.

Fortunately for me (we have a 7 hour plus drive ahead of us to western Iowa today!), Bill Finley summarized very well the reasoning why Bayern should have come down.  You can read that here. I do disagree with his assessment of the Horse of the Year voting, but otherwise I’m right there with him. 

I would add a couple of points of my own to the discussion as well:

There are those who argue that the race was long and there was time to make up the setback at the start and the others just couldn’t do it.  I would come back with not only Finley’s argument that the entire complexion of the race changed but would also add then that you’ve opened up the start of a horse race to all kinds of antics.

Picture this conversation in some paddock in the future: “Our main competition is on your inside.  When you break, dive in hard – don’t topple him or anything, just knock him off stride.  The race is a mile and a sixteenth so the stews won’t bother you and we get clear sailing from there on out.”

Is that just “race riding”?  Or is it setting a very dangerous precedent for horse and rider?  Is that just “playing the game”?  Is it cheating?  Rubbin’ may be racing in NASCAR, but it’s not in horse racing.  Jostling happens but taking out your rivals…that needed to be called.  Bayern probably just got away from Garcia, but that doesn't make it okay either.  And I would ask those defending it, just exactly where is the dividing line between where it matters and where it doesn’t?  A mile?  Five furlongs?  Just Quarter Horse racing so Thoroughbred racing should be an anything goes slugfest?

I’ve watched the head on too many times now and there are two things I DON’T see that everyone defending the non-decision says happened: I did not see where Garcia tried to correct immediately and I certainly didn’t see where an alleged “slow break” by Shared Belief cost him.  In watching the replay, Beyern never took a straight step.  He angled left right away.  How Mike Smith was supposed to be at fault for not getting him out of the gate is simply contradictory to the video evidence.

Additionally, the stewards can NOT wait 90+ minutes to issue a statement.  You made the call now explain it to everyone right away.  On the video monitors.  Clearly and concisely.  Go all John Madden and use a telestrator to illustrate your points.  Don’t run away and then leave it some PR guy to spin the decision for you.  You should be able to explain that decision right away.  Folks may not agree with you but it certainly alleviates any allegations of fraud, favoritism or collusion.

Which leads me to my final point.  Several folks who are casual fans at best connected with me after the race and wanted to know if that was REALLY legal in horse racing.  Can you really just take out part of the field and then pocket $2.75 million dollars? I didn’t really know how to respond.  It’s legal because the judges there said it was.

“What was their reasoning?”

“No idea.  They don’t have to tell us.”

“Really?  That doesn’t seem right.”

On our biggest stage we can’t help but shoot ourselves in the foot.  It simply never, ever fails.  We follow up a 2013 BC Classic that was for the ages with this debacle.  The game keeps making itself harder and harder to defend.  Yesterday for the first time after 30 years as a fan, nearly a decade as an owner and going on four years as a turf writer, I was embarrassed to be part of the industry.  Nobody really won that race yesterday and, in some ways, we all lost.

She's Got "Legs"

I'm getting ready to head out to my first Breeders' Cup and I am very excited.  I can't even imagine what it must like to have a horse actually running in one of the races.

That's not entirely true...

I TOTALLY can imagine it.  I actually think that all of us that own horses can imagine what it must be like.  My nervous anticipation before a $16,000 claiming race must completely pale in comparison.  And what if you have a home bred - a colt or filly that you raised from the very beginning - that you're about to see dance on the biggest stage in racing? I think my ulcer may end up with an ulcer...and absolutely worth it.  It would be intense and an unbelievable honor to carry the Minnesota/Canterbury Park flag into the Breeders' Cup!

While we don't have a Minn-bred in the Cup, we have one that we can follow as one of our own.

DESIGNER LEGS, a two year old filly who is a longshot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on Saturday, is one to root for if you're a Minnesota homer.  Owned by Valene Farms with a connection to Wayzata, she broke her maiden at first asking at Canterbury on June 28th.  She followed that up with a win in the Prairie Gold Lassie at Prairie Meadows prior to shipping to Saratoga to take the Grade II Adirondack Stakes (via DQ, but still was an impressive 2nd).  Although her last couple of races, the Grade I Spinaway and Alcibiates, may not have turned out as well as hoped, the Alcibiates was over the synthetic at Keeneland and was also her first time around two turns.

While this is a tough spot, we'll be there rooting hard for her!

Breeders' Cup or Bust

You'll notice a new banner ad to the top and left of this page.  I'm proud to welcome the Breeders' Cup as an advertiser for the next month or so as we all countdown to the Cup!

This will be my first year actually attending the Breeders' Cup.  In years past I enjoyed the national broadcast or the company of friends in the press box at Canterbury Park.  It was admittedly a little odd watching the biggest day in racing from a racetrack that was mothballed for the winter, but we had a blast and last year I was able to close hard with the Classic exacta to earn $2500 for the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.

I am hoping to blog my thoughts from Santa Anita as well as engage in much of the Twitter discussion going on around the racing.  Additionally I am looking forward to catching up in person with many who have so long only been internet colleagues and friends.

My disastrous Super Saturday picks notwithstanding, I am looking forward to attending the biggest day in racing and providing a bit of "home style" coverage of the event from the perspective of a small owner and huge fan.

If you haven't purchased a ticket yet, click on the above and browse for tickets or even official Breeders' Cup merchandise.  It's always good to support organizations that support local small businesses like this one!

See you at Santa Anita!

Breeders' Cup Wrap and A Victory for Retired Racehorses

The Breeders’ Cup is a wrap for this year and I had one horrid weekend of handicapping but a VERY silver lining at the end of it all.

First the ugly: The stat line for the weekend was 15 races, 2 wins, 6 seconds and 3 thirds.  I was a hanger.  I couldn’t quite get there and close the deal.  You move half of those seconds into the win column and it’s a helluva weekend.  Instead it was a crapload of frustration.  AND, my two winners were the most obvious of the weekend: Groupie Doll and Shanghai Bobby.

The Horse of the Year debate will now rage, which should be fun.  Little Mike, Wise Dan, Groupie Doll, Royal Delta all will be a part of the conversation.  It is hard to argue, though, with Wise Dan’s 2012, but that’s an argument for another post.

The silver lining?  Well, the REAL winner this weekend was the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.  Thanks to Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup $2500 is going to be donated to them from the HRF/BC Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge.  

Many celebrities, turf writers and, of course, me, made fantasy wagers for 13 weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.  The wagers were either: $20 to win, place or show, or a $10 exacta box.  Ernie Munick jumped out to an early lead hitting the exacta on the very first race of the contest, the Whitney.  I finally hit the board in Week 4 in the Travers when I picked Alpha to place (41 points).  You may recall that was the dead heat race in which Alpha paid more to place than to win! Two weeks later I hit the board again (Super Derby) with Bourbon Courage for 50 points.  And I sat at 91 for the remainder of the season.  I did change a pick – or I thought I did – in one of the final weekends from a loser to a winner, but did not confirm the change.  I can’t even recall which race it was (PTSD, I think) and I ended up going from thinking I was in the top 5 to being mired in 11^th heading into Breeders’ Cup weekend when all wins would be doubled.

In the interim, Ernie had hit more and was heading into the weekend still atop the leaderboard with 426.50 points, Team Rotondo was right on his heels with 369 with a nice series of wins.  The top 5 were rounded out by Bobby Flay (251), Chris Rossi (223) and Pete Denk (201).  I had good company with me in the middle of the standings, surrounded as I was between Mike Penna (98) and Melissa Nolan (76).

I knew I had to go exactas for the two BC Classics.  I was too far behind to do anything else.  My strategy in the Ladies Classic was go with who I thought was best and combine her with a higher odds horse that may complete a nicely priced exacta.  Royal Delta was the choice but I needed a longer shot to combine her with and with everyone else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I went with her.

As I noted in my recap, “Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.”  I couldn’t fault the ride, she was perfectly positioned.  She just was not good enough and I was WAY behind the eight ball heading into the final race of the contest.  Upside? No one cashed on the Ladies Classic so the margins remained the same.

It all came down to the Classic.  I needed a big score and it needed to be the exacta play.  I wasn’t getting there otherwise.   

The Classic featured the deepest pool of contenders that I can remember which was good and bad.  For the contest it was pretty damn good because with the money being spread out there was a chance I could nail a boxcars payoff and not just stab at a 25-1 shot.  The bad is that it was going to be really tough to narrow it down.  I had to just throw out Game On Dude – no combination with him was going to get me there.  I threw out horses that I didn’t think really had a chance: Pool Play, Handsome Mike, Brilliant Speed and Nonios and then sized up the remainder.  I narrowed it down to three: Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek.  Fort Larned was in – I really liked his consistency and after racing every 5 weeks or so, he went nearly eight between the Whitney and the Gold Cup.  With solid works after the Gold Cup and his usual 5 week spread, I really liked him a lot.

The remaining two, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek seemed relatively even to me.  Ron’s Gold Cup was awful, but he had a really solid campaign up until that point.  One bad race perhaps?  MMM had been off since September 1 and that would have worried me except that he is a horse that has been running relatively fresh all year and  doing it very, very well.  The Greek or 3M – both had some appeal to me from a hunch perspective (for the uninformed: I’m Greek and I live in Minnesota, home to 3M – the company, not the horse).  Ultimately MMM’s ability to run well fresh and Minnesota won the day.

Heading into the far turn I wanted the race to stop right there.  Fort Larned had spurted to a 4 length lead and MMM was starting to clear some daylight behind him in the chase.  The way speed had been holding on the dirt all day I knew if I could get into the stretch one, two, it could be all over but the shouting – my shouting.  LOUDLY.  Up in the Canterbury press box where I watched day 2 unfold.  By the team the field straightened out it was only a question of which horse would win.  There was only about a $6 difference in the exacta payouts so it didn’t really matter but Fort Larned on top paid a bit more.

All that was left was the payoffs and who else wagered.  The payout was a whopping 1254 points (remember, BC races counted double!).  The only other scorer in the race was Chris Rossi who earned 132 points with MMM to place.  That was it…I WON!  Or rather, the MNRRP won.

The MNRRP is, in their words, “a volunteer based, 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to the rehabilitation, placement, and promotion of retired racehorses.”  In only 3-years of existence, the MNRRP has helped retire over 100 racehorses that have grace Minnesota racetracks.  More could have been helped but horses need to be fed, housed, and cared for and all of this takes money – and space.  I hope that this $2500 contribution, along with Tabby Lane’s annual contribution of 1% of her earnings (this year $222) will help the efforts to retire more of Minnesota’s race horses with pride and dignity and get them started on second careers.  I also hope that this awareness causes you to help out – with the MNRRP or you own local race horse retirement group.  The demand for their services outstrips the supply.  Maybe you don’t have the cash, but own a farm where you can foster a few off track racehorses until they can be adopted; or donate feed; hay; vet services.  Anything can help.  If you’re a part of this game, you need to give back and I hope this helps.

Many thanks to Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup for this opportunity and, of course, to the folks at the MNRRP - and all horse retirement groups and individuals - for all that you do for our equine partners.

Breeders' Cup - Day 2

Day One was a mitigated disaster: yeah there wasn’t a single win on the card for me but my top choices did finish 2^nd three times and 3^rd twice over the course of the six races.  If I was a show better this would be outstanding; as a win/place better…not so great, but mitigated rather than unmitigated. The biggest disappointment on the day for me was the Ladies Classic where I had longshot Include Me Out in the exacta with winner Royal Delta.  Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.  It was a microcosm of a tough day.

BUT…there is Day 2.  As a horseplayer we always live to fight another day and “another day” is today.

Juvenile Turf

Several really nice graded stakes winners in this field including Noble Tune (Gr 3 Pilgrim), I’m Boundtoscore (Gr 2 Summer), Balance the Books (Gr 3 Bourbon) and Joha (Gr 1 Breeders’ Futurity).  You can even through in European Group 3 Solario Stakes winner Fantastic Moon and Group 3 Acomb Stakes winner Dundonnell into that group.  There are also a variety of running styles in here but only one of the really classy horses that I would consider good early speed and that’s Joha.  He just missed wiring the field in the Grade 2 With Anticipation before his gate to wire score in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. 

My Choice: Joha

Filly & Mare Sprint

Groupie Doll.  Moving on…

Dirt Mile

This turned out to be quite the fun little race.  Fan favorite Shackleford will lead the field to the post after a couple of disappointing efforts post Met Mile triumph.  Emcee, just on his outside has only failed to record a triple digit Beyer number in only two of his career starts.  Mystic Lake Derby runner up Delegation will try dirt for the first time off back-to-back wins over the artificial surface at Woodbine and Jersey Town comes in after surprising just about everyone (including Shakleford) in the Grade 1 Kelso with ease.  Shackleford and Emcee both like being on or near the led early and, unfortunately for them, so do Fed Biz, Delegation and perhaps even Second City.  All that speed could set things up for the improving Jersey Town to surprise them again.  I don’t think that Jersey Town is the best horse in the race, but ask The Fugue if the best horse always wins…

My Choice: Jersey Town

Turf Sprint

Not a fan of this race, though it does appear to be a bit wide open and could present a decent wagering opportunity if you really have a strong feeling.  This is one race I do not have an overly strong feeling about, but may jump on Unbridled’s Note if the price is right.  Steve Asmussen has Great Mills in to oush along the pacesetters like California Flag (if I DON’T pick him, he wins – so be forewarned) and Renneesgotzip.  Normally you could throw Bridgetown into that mix but in the Grade 3 Woodford he sat off the pace a bit and came charging late to blow past Great Mills to win that race.  The hope here is that Bridgetown, second off a layoff, feels a bit more keen than last time and tries to take to the lead.  Unbridled’s Note won’t be too far behind and will pick up the pieces.

My Choice: Unbridled’s Note

Juvenile

The Juvy looks like it comes down to undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee Shanghai Bobby and Bob Baffert trained Power Broker who appears to have figured out this racing thing in the Grade 1 Front Runner.  Power Broker is going to want to sit off an early pace while Shanghai Bobby will want to stay close to, if not on, the early lead.  Power Broker’s connections have Title Contender breaking from the one hole and, while certainly not out of his depth in here, will certainly ensure a solid early pace to run at.  Will Bobby take the bait and go or be able to sit off of Title Contender’s flank until it’s time to run?  While Shanghai Bobby is stretching out, the distance should not be an issue while Power Broker has a win at this distance AND over this course.  This one is a toss up: do you prefer the local angle or the undefeated colt that has yet to throw in a clunker?

My Choice: Shanghai Bobby (but narrowly)

Turf

A nice mixed contingent in the turf with some very nice Euros squaring off against an American entry that is seemingly getting stronger with every start.  A nice colt prior to trying the turf, Point of Entry has turned into a monster once he was introduced to the sod by trainer Shug McGaughey.  Carrying the fabled colors of the Phipps stable, Point of Entry is on quite a roll, winning his last five races: four graded stakes, the last three of which were grade ones.  His Beyer numbers have increased with every race during that streak and he’s come from far back and from just off the pace to tally the wins.  Prior to shipping he threw two bullet works and is as sharp as can be heading into the biggest race of his career.

My Choice: Point of Entry

Sprint

There is surely enough early speed in the race to ensure a fair trip around the oval which really leads you to two horses: Amazombie or The Lumber Guy.  Do you believe in the local prep and Amazombie needing that last after a layoff to sharpen up for this one or do you buy into The Lumber Guy’s amazing 110 Beyer in the Grade 1 Vosburgh off the bench?  The Lumber Guy had been training superbly before leaving New York and sprinting certainly seems to be his forte.  Amazombie, who I’ve heard has been called the best dirt sprinter in North America, emerged from seclusion for 1:08.3 to take the Bing Crosby over the artificial surface at Del Mar before heading back to get ready for this race.  He certainly loves being home in California and if he did indeed need one race before the Sprint, Amazombie will be tough to beat – especially with all time BC winningest rider Mike Smith aboard.

My Choice: The Lumber Guy (BUT…and this is a big but here…should the locally prepped horses earlier on the card keep outperforming their Eastern counterparts, I’ll be on Amazombie here)

Mile

US v. Europe.  The best turf miler in America, Wise Dan, takes on the second best turf miler in Europe, Excelebration.  In his last 10 starts, Excelebration has won 6, placing in three and third in the other.  The winning horse each and every time?  Some git named Frankel!  But does losing to a super horse by  combined 16 lengths automatically make you a world beater as well?  I think if they were Affirmed/Alydar type duals then I think the case would be stronger.

Wise Dan has won four of five starts this year and narrowly missed an undefeated season when he just couldn’t get there in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster ...on dirt.  Wise Dan has been remarkably consistent this year winning each mile race with ease and recording solid Beyer figures in each race. 

Both horses need some speed to run at since neither is going to take this field wire to wire.  A horse that will try is Obviously.  Ridden by Joe Talamo, Obviously has won three straight in frontrunning fashion, including the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile and the Grade 2 Arroyo Secco Mile over this very course.  There isn’t a whole lot of speed in this race to go with Obviously so Talamo will gun to the lead and try and hold on the charge.  If he can succeed at slowing down the middle quarters, it will be tough for the top two to catch him since he is really no slouch himself.

My Choice: Obviously (he might not be the best, but he may get the best trip)

Classic

I know it’s been said a million times already, but this Classic is the deepest I’ve ever seen.  Every entrant is a graded stakes winner: many multiple and most just this year.  Of Flat Out, Alpha, Fort Larned, Game on Dude, Richard’s Kid, Ron the Greek, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve – one of them has to finish eighth!!  We could all make a case for just about any horse in here winning and I could agree with the justification.  I need to make a pick here because I have to, but there is a very, very good chance that I’ll be watching this one without a ticket in my hand.

My Choice: Game On Dude (going with who I think is the best horse – but this will be a test for sure)

In the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping Challenge I need a high priced exacta, so my contest pick will be the exacta box of Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned (I TOLD you, I need a high payer).

Best of luck everyone!

Breeders' Cup - Day 1

It’s Breeders’ Cup time again and, it should please you to know, my track record in these races is much better than in the Kentucky Derby.  But then my track record in running marathons is better than my picks in the Derby.  Here’s  a closer look at this afternoon’s races which I’ll have on in the background whilst I work.

Juvenile Sprint

Small field and some real speed ought to make this one interesting.  The clear favorite is the 2 for 2 Merit Man. He won a squeaker in his debut over the artificial surface at Del Mar and then exploded over the Santa Anita dirt to take the Tim Conway.  Bob Baffert’s Super Ninety Nine could improve after a first out win the day after Merit Man’s Conway triumph.  Both colts like the front: Merit Man fought hard three wide in the Conway before putting the field away and Super Ninety Nine dueled up until the stretch before scoring by 1 ¼.  South Floyd will also want to get out early and all three are bunched in the center of the starting gate.

In an older horse race it may turn more on the trip than the talent but with these 2-year olds, I think it’s about the talent and I don’t think anyone else approaches the talent of the top two. 

My Choice: MERIT MAN

Marathon

What a crappy race. Only in America is a mile and 3/4 race a “marathon” and the contenders in here are rather non-descript.  I remember having Romp in my Derby fantasy stable a million years ago.  Eldaafer won this thing a few years ago and hasn’t done much since.  I have no idea how to handicap the South American entries in this race.  Maybe Commander can steal it on the front end at a billion to won and carry his winning streak to 7 – though he hasn’t seen this type of company in Canada…well, what SHOULD be this kind of company.

Know your strengths and know when to pass a race – in real life, I’ll watch this one and wager nothing, though a minor tri box of Commander, Atigun and Worth Repeating may happen, just to keep it interesting.  A public selection needs to be forthcoming so…

My Choice: ATIGUN (which would also give Mike Smith the overall lead in career BC riding wins)

Juvenile Fillies Turf

A nice big field with a couple of also eligible waiting in the wings.  Euro Sky Lantern is the morning line favorite while my choice, Spring Venture, is at a lovely 5-1.  She should be able to stalk just fine.  In compiling her 3 for 3 record she’s barely tried hard and won each easily.  She’s also won at today’s distance.  She may be able to score at a decent price if she goes flat out.  Biggest threat, in my opinion, isn’t Sky Lantern but Watsdachances who is 2 for 2 in the US – both with troubled trips.  She steers clear of trouble and she could romp here.

My Choice: SPRING VENTURE

Juvenile Fillies

Classics aside, this may be the most competitive race over the two days.  Beholder, Executiveprivilege, Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Kate all could step up and win this thing.  There was a lot of ooing and ahing over Beholder’s 108 Beyer last out, but it was earned in a non-winners of one allowance race.  I know that Beyers are supposed to make that irrelevant, but it is indeed relevant.  I’m hoping that the betting is spread among the most likely of contenders so I can get a decent price on the young lady that I feel is the best filly in here: Executiveprivilege.  With a win over the strip and at this distance and having yet to be beaten as well as her ability to rate of a pace, she is…

My Choice: EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE

Filly and Mare Turf

One of the toughest things every year is comparing the Euros and their out of country form against the North American horses.  For the most part it is a difficult exercise, mostly because we Americans are used to certain information presented a certain way and the Euro running lines have information we don’t understand and aren’t used to processing.  And this isn’t an attempt to educate!  I will freely admit if an international race didn’t have Frankel or Black Caviar, I probably didn’t see it.  I most likely will pass again in here and just watch the race, but again a public selection is warranted and I’m going to buy American with Marketing Mix.

In her last three races, she won two and she was closing before missing by a head in the Beverly D.  If she had another 1/16 on the mile and 3/16 distance (for those of you math challenged as I am, that would be a mile and quarter – the Turf distance) she would have beaten I’m A Dreamer.

My Choice: MARKETING MIX

Ladies Classic

WOW!  This race features a LOT of talent.  Every one of the eight entrants hit the board last time out with all but one of those races graded stakes (the other was still a stake); two are undefeated; one is on a four race win streak, another looking for her third; six of the eight won their last race AND the race has the defending champion!!

There are a lot in here that want the front end or stalk a pace.  The only confirmed closer in the group is Include Me Out who probably isn’t nearly as fast as the others in here.  So much so that I’m not sure that even a perfect pace battle can set her up for a win BUT if it does, she should be an excellent price.  We can assume that Love and Pride and Questing will take to the lead and Royal Delta won’t want to be too far behind.  With everyone else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I’m going to take a chance on the major upset in the major race of the day.

(Side note: of the three 3-year olds, only Questing has beaten older – but nowhere near this caliber)

And added note of interest here: this is the second to last race of the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge and I need to go exacta since I’m so far behind.  So here is my value exacta box for the race – Include Me Out and Royal Delta.  I was tempted to include Love and Pride but I think there is going to be a lot of burn out on the front end.

My Choice: Include Me Out

Best of luck everyone and see you for Day 2 tomorrow!

HRF/BC Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge Race 11: QE II Challenge Cup

The race is coming down to the wire in the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge and due to some bad wagers and operator error (a winning wager not input correctly – freaking dope) I’m in a bad spot: 9^th place and nearly 300 points off of leader Ernie Munick who’s looking to take the field wire to wire.

No more place wagering.  I have to bet to win or take a real shot in the exactas and try to score a solid win.  With only 2 races left before Championship Weekend at the Breeders’ Cup, I need to make a move.

This week’s race is the Grade I QE II Challenge Cup at a mile and an eighth over the Keeneland turf course.  Stephanie’s Kitten enters the race as the 5/2 morning line favorite so that eliminates her from contention – as far as the contest goes.  I need 3-1 or better in order to be able to try and gain some real ground.  No one has really been a consistent scoring machine at all during the contest and as we’re all getting a bit more concerned as the contest winds down, I am hoping that spawns some desperate plays.  If I can go three of the last four at 3-1 or better, I may yet still be able to claim the $2500 prize money for the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.

This week I’m going with Samitar.  Since coming to this country she’s 1 for 2 with her loss coming in the Grade II Lake George soon after her arrival.  After some rest and prep she stormed back to win the Grade I Garden City at Belmont rating just off the pace and getting up to win late.  I’m hoping that she can track behind the early speed of Dayatthespa and get up again over many of these same rivals. 

My two main concerns are: 1) Dayatthespa may have things her own way up front and; 2) she’ll end up lost in the cavalry charge at the end of the race with all the closers.  I can’t dope out a clear exacta choice in here so I’m going Samitar, straight up.

WAGER: $20 win on SAMITAR