Preakness Thoughts

We head into Preakness Day like we always do - with only one horse with the ability to bring home a Triple Crown.  Some of the usual suspects come with the Derby King to take another crack at him and they join up with a few that have been waiting in the wings for Black-Eyed Susans rather than roses.

Sometimes the Derby King succeeds and goes on to New York with America in tow, waiting to see if the drought is broken and the country's thirst for a Triple Crown winner is quenched.  It hasn't been for 37 years.

Maybe this year will be different; maybe it won’t, but for any chance of it happening at all American Pharaoh has to win in Baltimore.  I’m not sure how he can fail.

Admittedly I got too cute in the Derby.  Around our house most conversations Heather and I had handicapping the Derby ended up with “maybe American Pharaoh is just the best horse?” He was and I was wrong.  I had him in the mix but in the big field, anything can happen, two-minute world of the Derby it was worth going for the price.  In Baltimore it’s all about the win.

I know it’s trendy to look at Firing Line improving or Diving Rod coming in for the Jacksons in their return to the Preakness, but with his owner and the likes of D. Wayne Lukas saying that the horse won in Louisville despite not being at his best and a field half the size he had to contend with in the Derby, I’m going with American Pharaoh, odds be damned.

(Follow this and other picks from a myriad of horse racing folks on the Preakness Day stakes at Hello Race Fans.)

Kentucky Oaks Day Preview

Each year the folks at Hello Race Fans  provide their readers with industry veterans' selections for the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and some of the supporting stakes on each day’s undercard.  They will post the consolidated picks in a spreadsheet on their site on Friday and Saturday.  I am honored and pleased to be part of the field again this year.  While my picks will be there for all to see, there isn’t room to expound on why I chose what I did ,so, as in year’s past, I’ll thumbnail that out a bit here.

EDGEWOOD STAKES

My choice in here is on the inside, QUALITY ROCKS.  She won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks last out and did so turning the table on CONSUMER CREDIT who then went on to win the Memories of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct on April 23.  While SUNSET GLOW is favored and the pace will be light – which she should like with her front-running style, she’s faltered moving past 7 furlongs while QUALITY ROCKS has been able to take a graded stakes field at the distance here of a mile and 1/16.

LA TROIENNE

I struggled a bit here between MY MISS SOPHIA and SHEER DRAMA.  The deciding factor for me has been MY MISS SOPHIA’s lackluster second half of her 3-year old season after fighting hard and being soundly beaten by UNTAPABLE in last year’s Kentucky Oaks.  She’s been training very well but going up against SHEER DRAMA may be too tough a task for her seasonal bow.  SHEER DRAMA has improved with each start this season culminating in a dominating performance in the Grade 2 Royal Delta at Gulfstream.

ALYSHEBA

PROTONICO came back after injury with a completely masterful performance in the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland.  He had a nice maintenance work in between and while Castellano got off to stay on slightly favored HONOR CODE, I don’t think the latter is going to have a strong pace to close into.  In fact, the pace should be controlled by PROTONICO – and these two certainly seem to stand over this field.

TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT

Though the last race was chalky, I’m going long shot in this field. After a long break following a $62,500 claim last year, CHANNEL MARKER debuted poorly in a mile, flashing some speed before fading, he ran a great second in the 5 ½ furlong Grade 3 Shakertown on tax day. HEATAI, JASIZZLE, GOOD DEED and SOMETHING EXTRA should all be flashing speed.  I don’t see Torres having CHANNEL MARKER as far back as he did in the Shakertown and he should be flying at the end.  If the early pace is quick enough, I hope to cash at a price.

EIGHT BELLS

The Eight Bells features the undefeated 3-year old filly, PROMISE ME SILVER.  You can’t say that she’s done anything wrong.  The only negative she really has against her is that she’s never run in a graded stake.  Make no mistake, there is most definitely a step up when you move into the rarified air of a graded stake and she’s making that step today.  For that reason I went with EKATI’S PHAETON.  Yeah, her last was an absolute clunker, but she had speed for half the race when being asked to go a mile and a sixteenth.  This gal was NOT made to go that long.  She’s back to a sprint now and her speed should be controlling and if she can’t get on top, she has proven she can rate and win as well.  At a 6-1 morning line she’s providing great value as well.

KENTUCKY OAKS

Many have written about how deep the quality runs in this year’s 3-year old male crop competing for the roses in Saturday’s Derby, but the Oaks field is no slouch either.  CONDO COMMANDO, LOVELY MARIA, I’M A CHATTERBOX, STELLAR WIND and BIRDATTHEWIRE are all in with a chance.  Should any of these cross the finish line first I would not be surprised.

The morning line favorite, STELLAR WIND, seems to have the perfect style for the Oaks.  She has the ability to stalk and her big move after a troubled start to dominate the Santa Anita Oaks was very impressive.  I went elsewhere.

My whittling down process got me to BIRDATTHEWIRE and I’M A CHATTERBOX.  BIRDATTHEWIRE has had nothing but trouble in her 2015 campaign and yet still has won 2 of the three Grade 2’s she’s run in, just missing by a neck in the Davona Dale in her other start.  This type of adversity should serve her well in here.

I’M A CHATTERBOX has been splendid in her preps down on the Bayou.  She swept the preps at Fairgrounds and did it gate to wire, from far off the pace and pressing a bit before taking command.  Florent Geroux is going to be able to react to whatever scenario gets thrown at him as the race unfolds and have confidence that his mount can get it done.

In a very competitive field, I feel that I’M A CHATTERBOX is the best horse – and my choice – but I will be using BIRDATTHEWIRE with her in the exacta.

Forging Ahead: Some Goals for 2014

Now that I’ve gone ahead and taken a look back, it’s “resolution” time.  I hate to call them resolutions because I think then I’m just setting myself up for failure.  I guess that these are more like “goals” I would like to reach and want to build a plan around them to help me get there.  Here are the top 5 for 2014:

“WORK” At My Handicapping.  I know, we all think that we work at it when we sit and break down a race card but the truth is that being successful at this game requires you to have better insight than the people you are wagering against.  Back when I was moderately successful at this, I took notes on races and horses, I kept track of my wins and losses, I broke down the results of races against the past performances to see what it is that I missed.  More often than not, I missed something and documenting that helped keep me from repeating that error.  I’d like to get back to a strike rate of 40% at average odds of 7/2 or better again.

I’m also going to re-sign up for the National Handicapping Championship this season and try and play in an event per month to try and qualify for the 2015 Championships in Las Vegas as well as utilizing my balance at Derby Wars to play in more tournaments as well.  Competition forces you to keep you skills sharp and, let’s face it; I’m a very competitive person anyhow!

Promote TURF.  A few years back we formed a loose group of bloggers with the announced goal of writing about and promoting our sport of horse racing.  Some of the best bloggers in North America became part of TURF and I’ve decided to take that on for 2014; at least try and promote members blogs on our Facebook page (Turf Bloggers) and Twitter (@turfbloggers) account.  I’ll see if I can end up doing more than that, but for now that may have to be enough.

Blog More Often.  This one seems simple enough, but it never seems to work out.  Ted needs to sit his ass down in front of the PC and get it done.  There are going to be a few things I’m going to try this year that are new, like some video pieces such as putting together a video of bringing a horse up to their first ever race that hopefully would be fun and interesting. 

Expand the Club.  Managing the Canterbury Park Racing Club was fun, interesting and rewarding.  We got some nice press through the Paulick Report in the Spring, but I have not seen this concept take off anywhere else.  That strikes me as a gig that could be developed into something nationwide.  I don’t think that Magna Group, NYRA or Churchill Downs Inc. would be interested per se (though they should be) but what about other racetracks around the US like Tampa Bay, Hawthorne, Oaklawn or Turf Paradise?  No one may be interested, but I’m going to give it a try.

Get Organized. My move this past summer left me totally discombobulated. I have files everywhere and paperwork that needs to get into them! I need to take the time it takes to get them set and maintained.  Realistically it only takes a few minutes of extra time a day once I’m set up to do it so I need to remind myself how much easier life is when I’m organized and not procrastinate when it comes to taking those five extra minutes.

Certainly not unattainable goals, I don’t think.  I also want to lose weight, exercise more, expand my partnerships, write better, get the book in my head onto paper and on, and on, and on.  However I think that these five are good and in one way shape or form, interrelated. Being organized affects all the other goals.  Being more active in writing and promoting TURF will help expand my platform and could help open doors to generating more business.  The lifeblood of our sport is the wagering and being better at that aspect can permeate all the others since it would force me to follow racetracks and horses more carefully, record my thoughts and expand the potential pool of subject matter.  It would also keep me from my embarrassing 2013 finishes this year in the Hello Race Fans expert picks!

Best of luck in all your goals for 2014.  I look forward to hearing about yours and sharing with you the progress as this stable turns into the wind and tries to take flight.

 

 

Saturday's Breeders' Cup Thoughts

The Great Race Place

Some random thoughts regarding Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup:

- No matter how good the television coverage may be, nothing beats being at the races;

- Speed held.  You didn't HAVE to be on the lead, but you needed to be close to have a chance.  "Break and gun" was the strategy of the day - you were NOT coming from far off the pace today;

- Gorgeous southern California beats Minnesota winter...at least for a few days.  The traffic out here would drive me insane outside of a week;

- Beholder is the real deal - she was magnificent;

- Every horse looks like a million bucks.

- Santa Anita is indeed one of the prettiest places in America to watch a race.

- The crowd was decent but certainly manageable.  I never had to wait more than one or two people deep in a line to make a wager.  We'll see what today brings, but day 1 was right on the money.

- I was close but no cigar WAY to often.  Regrouped after the races and back at it Saturday.

And on to Saturday's picks:

JUVENILE FILLIES

It really looks like on paper that Artemis Agrotera is just better than the rest.  I would tend to agree but in looking for some value, I really like Untapable.  She has nondescript works which makes me a bit nervous, but she has stalking speed, back to back wins, was unsettled early in her last and still managed to win the Grade 2 Pocahontas at this distance.  A win at this distance is big for a baby, in my opinion.

If Rosie can have her settled early she could be in line for a big final run at the favorite coming for home.

Sentimental choice is Canterbury maiden breaker Designer Legs...though I won't use her on my ticket.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Dank is the choice for most in here and it's certainly easy to see why.  She came over from a solid campaign in Europe and dusted the Beverly D field at Arlington impressively.

Marketing Mix has been one of my favorite mares but I think she's outclassed in here, which makes me a bit sad.

I'm going with what I perceive to be as the only real speed in the race, Laughing.  Lezcano has ridden her enough to know how to ration that speed and this race could set up very nicely for her, especially breaking from the center.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

How do you not love Groupie Doll?  She has been magnificent and has had a wonderful career but her 2013 has not been near as dominant as her 2012 campaign and she's certainly beatable here.

One also has to love the way Dance to Bristol is in every race.  You leave this filly out of your exotics at your own peril - 13 of 14 races in the exacta.  Remarkable consistency.

My choice in this one is, however, Sweet Lulu.  Sweet Lulu, a 3-year old, has started her career by beating up on older.  When she stepped way up into graded stakes company she stuck with her own age and took the Grade 1 Test at the Spa.  Next out, going two turns, she hung tough with Distaff contender Close Hatches before the mile and a sixteenth became just too tough.  Dropping back into a sprint she should be tough and with a morning line of 8-1, should have some value as well.

TURF SPRINT

Caracorado, a former claimer, is a great story and Jim Rome's Mizdirection has been a remarkable lady who beat the boys here last year, but I'm looking at Chips All In in the turf sprint.  The colt won over the downhill turf course in the Grade 3 Eddie D and should be able to have the location behind the leaders to get first run.  Between Mizdirection, Rennesgotzip and Tightend Touchdown, there should be plenty of early speed to run at.

JUVENILE

There are plenty of nice babies in here but I'm looking at Mike Smith to extend on his Breeders' Cup record riding victories with Tap It Rich.  The ridgeling had a terrible start and was wide throughout in his debut and was still able to win by a comfortable 4 1/4 lengths earning a stellar 89 Beyer Speed Figure.  He may not have the experience of the others in big races, and that may show, but if he's calm and relaxed, he could light this field up.

TURF

I love Point of Entry.  I love everything that Shug has been able to do with him,  This horse was on the bench from last year's BC Turf until February when he came back and beat Animal Kingdom in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  Then he waited until June to run in the Grade 1 Manhattan, where he handled Optimizer.  Now he's pointed to the BC Turf.  This is his year to go 3 for 3 and take home a cool million for the effort.

SPRINT

Sprints are always hard to figure for me with horses of this caliber.  It's hard to come off the pace and the good ones can hold their speed for a long way.  I'm not thinking that any of the early speedsters (Private Zone, Sum of the Parts, Trinniberg) are going to just run away with this one so maybe a solid pace stalker could jump up and get it.  That's why I'm going with Justin Phillip.  He had some trouble in his last and still just missed catching Private Zone in the Grade 1 Vosburgh and I'm hopeful that Private Zone will have a bit more pressure early to weaken him up for the other Zayat runner.  He best be close, though...

MILE & CLASSIC

Now I get chalky.  I really think that the two best horses in training right now are Wise Dan and Game on Dude.  In the Mile, while Wise Dan was upset last out by Silver Max, I think that Obviously and Bright Thought will put enough pressure on him early to soften him up for ol' Dano.

Game on Dude is just better this year. Now you can certainly pile on and say that he spent virtually all year in California, but when he did go east in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, he held off Clubhouse Ride and Ron the Greek to notch another win.  Last year's beaten favoritism probably still stings for Baffert and Smith and they'll be sure he is razor sharp for this.  He could be softened up early by some of the other speed in here, but I think he's just THAT much better this year.

Good luck, enjoy the day and follow me on Twitter (@tlgrevelis) for some updates live from the 30th anniversary Breeders' Cup from Santa Anita.

Breeders' Cup Friday

Things tend to get a little away from you when you're not at home and the Breeders' Cup (Tickets STILL available, click the box upper left of the screen) is no exception!  Ideally my thoughts on Friday would have been up a day or so ago, but that simply wasn't going to happen.  However, it IS before post time and you can also see my picks (and those from other "experts" who are bound to be more correct than I!) over at Hello Race Fans.  Here is my reasoning behind Friday's selections:

MARATHON

This is always a fun race to watch.  We get so few races at a mile and a half or better in the US that to watch one is a treat. Not many in here have gone this far though most look like they have the pedigree to do so. I went for a lot of value in this one - at least in theory.

Commander can get the early lead but will probably be pressed early on by the likes of the morning line favorite, Ever Rider - making his first US start after running exclusively in South America.  London Bridge and Blueskiesandrainbows will probably want to be close early as well.

My choice is Worldly.  Yes, he hasn't won in forever and is very lightly raced the last few years, but his pattern this year is a nice one to me - when looking at a mile and 3/4.  Lost by 8 to probably Golden Ticket's best race of the season and then just missed at Remington coming hard at the end.  Last out was defeated by Fort Larned, which is no shame and all the while (well, maybe not in his last) you get the feeling that he may want even more ground than the 1 1/8, 1 1/4 that he's been getting.

Winning this race would be a huge upset, but I like the way the race sets up and I think he'll be more than the 6-1 morning line, making him worth a shot.

JUVENILE TURF

Not exactly going out on a limb here.  Bobby's Kitten earned his trade in his first race and came back to break his maiden easily in his second.  He then stepped right up to a Grade 3 in the Pilgrim and won that with ease.  Aidan O'Brien's Giovanni Boldini is going to be a tough.  With the babies you never know who is going to jump up, but this looks like the exacta to me.

DIRT MILE

Always a fun race and my favorite 3-year old this year, Verrazano, comes in as the morning line favorite.  I'm not picking him, but if he wins in spectacular fashion, I will rip up my ticket and give him an ovation, I really think he's spectacular.  However, I'm riding the hot hand in this one and that is Pants on Fire.  Really professional wins in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup and the Grade 3 Ack Ack and then a brief breather while working tremendously before shipping west.

Goldencents is at home and Alpha is cutting back to a distance where he may be more comfortable and effective.  A very competitive race but I'm looking at Pants on Fire to pick up the pieces down the land to win it.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

I went way outside here and could end up in big trouble, but My Conquestadory is the pick.  I love the way she was able to pick her way through traffic at Keeneland last out, something you don't just see from babies too often.  The odds are good that she'll have to do it again here in order to win.  The French Vorda is the popular pick and another French filly, Testa Rossi, is on a very nice roll.  Sky Painter could be an excellent value at 15-1 morning line after a very strong finish behind Testa Rossi in the Grade 3 Ms Grillo.

This looks to be a nice race to box a few and nail a tri or super.

DISTAFF

Could be the greatest collection of filly and mare talent ever.  I don't think that Street Girl can win.  I can absolutely make a case for the other five.  I'm going with Princess of Sylmar because she's on a roll and has beaten a couple in here in the process, including the older mare Royal Delta.  I would love to see Beholder win it (she's my distaff Verrazano, I just love her) but I think her speed mixing it up with Royal Delta and possibly Close Hatches could set things up very nicely for the streaking Princess.

Best of luck everybody.  I'll be tweeting some thoughts and pictures from Day 1 at Santa Anita throughout the weekend and you can catch those on Twitter by following me @tlgrevelis.

Breeders' Cup Wrap and A Victory for Retired Racehorses

The Breeders’ Cup is a wrap for this year and I had one horrid weekend of handicapping but a VERY silver lining at the end of it all.

First the ugly: The stat line for the weekend was 15 races, 2 wins, 6 seconds and 3 thirds.  I was a hanger.  I couldn’t quite get there and close the deal.  You move half of those seconds into the win column and it’s a helluva weekend.  Instead it was a crapload of frustration.  AND, my two winners were the most obvious of the weekend: Groupie Doll and Shanghai Bobby.

The Horse of the Year debate will now rage, which should be fun.  Little Mike, Wise Dan, Groupie Doll, Royal Delta all will be a part of the conversation.  It is hard to argue, though, with Wise Dan’s 2012, but that’s an argument for another post.

The silver lining?  Well, the REAL winner this weekend was the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.  Thanks to Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup $2500 is going to be donated to them from the HRF/BC Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge.  

Many celebrities, turf writers and, of course, me, made fantasy wagers for 13 weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.  The wagers were either: $20 to win, place or show, or a $10 exacta box.  Ernie Munick jumped out to an early lead hitting the exacta on the very first race of the contest, the Whitney.  I finally hit the board in Week 4 in the Travers when I picked Alpha to place (41 points).  You may recall that was the dead heat race in which Alpha paid more to place than to win! Two weeks later I hit the board again (Super Derby) with Bourbon Courage for 50 points.  And I sat at 91 for the remainder of the season.  I did change a pick – or I thought I did – in one of the final weekends from a loser to a winner, but did not confirm the change.  I can’t even recall which race it was (PTSD, I think) and I ended up going from thinking I was in the top 5 to being mired in 11^th heading into Breeders’ Cup weekend when all wins would be doubled.

In the interim, Ernie had hit more and was heading into the weekend still atop the leaderboard with 426.50 points, Team Rotondo was right on his heels with 369 with a nice series of wins.  The top 5 were rounded out by Bobby Flay (251), Chris Rossi (223) and Pete Denk (201).  I had good company with me in the middle of the standings, surrounded as I was between Mike Penna (98) and Melissa Nolan (76).

I knew I had to go exactas for the two BC Classics.  I was too far behind to do anything else.  My strategy in the Ladies Classic was go with who I thought was best and combine her with a higher odds horse that may complete a nicely priced exacta.  Royal Delta was the choice but I needed a longer shot to combine her with and with everyone else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I went with her.

As I noted in my recap, “Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.”  I couldn’t fault the ride, she was perfectly positioned.  She just was not good enough and I was WAY behind the eight ball heading into the final race of the contest.  Upside? No one cashed on the Ladies Classic so the margins remained the same.

It all came down to the Classic.  I needed a big score and it needed to be the exacta play.  I wasn’t getting there otherwise.   

The Classic featured the deepest pool of contenders that I can remember which was good and bad.  For the contest it was pretty damn good because with the money being spread out there was a chance I could nail a boxcars payoff and not just stab at a 25-1 shot.  The bad is that it was going to be really tough to narrow it down.  I had to just throw out Game On Dude – no combination with him was going to get me there.  I threw out horses that I didn’t think really had a chance: Pool Play, Handsome Mike, Brilliant Speed and Nonios and then sized up the remainder.  I narrowed it down to three: Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek.  Fort Larned was in – I really liked his consistency and after racing every 5 weeks or so, he went nearly eight between the Whitney and the Gold Cup.  With solid works after the Gold Cup and his usual 5 week spread, I really liked him a lot.

The remaining two, Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek seemed relatively even to me.  Ron’s Gold Cup was awful, but he had a really solid campaign up until that point.  One bad race perhaps?  MMM had been off since September 1 and that would have worried me except that he is a horse that has been running relatively fresh all year and  doing it very, very well.  The Greek or 3M – both had some appeal to me from a hunch perspective (for the uninformed: I’m Greek and I live in Minnesota, home to 3M – the company, not the horse).  Ultimately MMM’s ability to run well fresh and Minnesota won the day.

Heading into the far turn I wanted the race to stop right there.  Fort Larned had spurted to a 4 length lead and MMM was starting to clear some daylight behind him in the chase.  The way speed had been holding on the dirt all day I knew if I could get into the stretch one, two, it could be all over but the shouting – my shouting.  LOUDLY.  Up in the Canterbury press box where I watched day 2 unfold.  By the team the field straightened out it was only a question of which horse would win.  There was only about a $6 difference in the exacta payouts so it didn’t really matter but Fort Larned on top paid a bit more.

All that was left was the payoffs and who else wagered.  The payout was a whopping 1254 points (remember, BC races counted double!).  The only other scorer in the race was Chris Rossi who earned 132 points with MMM to place.  That was it…I WON!  Or rather, the MNRRP won.

The MNRRP is, in their words, “a volunteer based, 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to the rehabilitation, placement, and promotion of retired racehorses.”  In only 3-years of existence, the MNRRP has helped retire over 100 racehorses that have grace Minnesota racetracks.  More could have been helped but horses need to be fed, housed, and cared for and all of this takes money – and space.  I hope that this $2500 contribution, along with Tabby Lane’s annual contribution of 1% of her earnings (this year $222) will help the efforts to retire more of Minnesota’s race horses with pride and dignity and get them started on second careers.  I also hope that this awareness causes you to help out – with the MNRRP or you own local race horse retirement group.  The demand for their services outstrips the supply.  Maybe you don’t have the cash, but own a farm where you can foster a few off track racehorses until they can be adopted; or donate feed; hay; vet services.  Anything can help.  If you’re a part of this game, you need to give back and I hope this helps.

Many thanks to Hello Race Fans and the Breeders’ Cup for this opportunity and, of course, to the folks at the MNRRP - and all horse retirement groups and individuals - for all that you do for our equine partners.

Breeders' Cup - Day 1

It’s Breeders’ Cup time again and, it should please you to know, my track record in these races is much better than in the Kentucky Derby.  But then my track record in running marathons is better than my picks in the Derby.  Here’s  a closer look at this afternoon’s races which I’ll have on in the background whilst I work.

Juvenile Sprint

Small field and some real speed ought to make this one interesting.  The clear favorite is the 2 for 2 Merit Man. He won a squeaker in his debut over the artificial surface at Del Mar and then exploded over the Santa Anita dirt to take the Tim Conway.  Bob Baffert’s Super Ninety Nine could improve after a first out win the day after Merit Man’s Conway triumph.  Both colts like the front: Merit Man fought hard three wide in the Conway before putting the field away and Super Ninety Nine dueled up until the stretch before scoring by 1 ¼.  South Floyd will also want to get out early and all three are bunched in the center of the starting gate.

In an older horse race it may turn more on the trip than the talent but with these 2-year olds, I think it’s about the talent and I don’t think anyone else approaches the talent of the top two. 

My Choice: MERIT MAN

Marathon

What a crappy race. Only in America is a mile and 3/4 race a “marathon” and the contenders in here are rather non-descript.  I remember having Romp in my Derby fantasy stable a million years ago.  Eldaafer won this thing a few years ago and hasn’t done much since.  I have no idea how to handicap the South American entries in this race.  Maybe Commander can steal it on the front end at a billion to won and carry his winning streak to 7 – though he hasn’t seen this type of company in Canada…well, what SHOULD be this kind of company.

Know your strengths and know when to pass a race – in real life, I’ll watch this one and wager nothing, though a minor tri box of Commander, Atigun and Worth Repeating may happen, just to keep it interesting.  A public selection needs to be forthcoming so…

My Choice: ATIGUN (which would also give Mike Smith the overall lead in career BC riding wins)

Juvenile Fillies Turf

A nice big field with a couple of also eligible waiting in the wings.  Euro Sky Lantern is the morning line favorite while my choice, Spring Venture, is at a lovely 5-1.  She should be able to stalk just fine.  In compiling her 3 for 3 record she’s barely tried hard and won each easily.  She’s also won at today’s distance.  She may be able to score at a decent price if she goes flat out.  Biggest threat, in my opinion, isn’t Sky Lantern but Watsdachances who is 2 for 2 in the US – both with troubled trips.  She steers clear of trouble and she could romp here.

My Choice: SPRING VENTURE

Juvenile Fillies

Classics aside, this may be the most competitive race over the two days.  Beholder, Executiveprivilege, Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Kate all could step up and win this thing.  There was a lot of ooing and ahing over Beholder’s 108 Beyer last out, but it was earned in a non-winners of one allowance race.  I know that Beyers are supposed to make that irrelevant, but it is indeed relevant.  I’m hoping that the betting is spread among the most likely of contenders so I can get a decent price on the young lady that I feel is the best filly in here: Executiveprivilege.  With a win over the strip and at this distance and having yet to be beaten as well as her ability to rate of a pace, she is…

My Choice: EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE

Filly and Mare Turf

One of the toughest things every year is comparing the Euros and their out of country form against the North American horses.  For the most part it is a difficult exercise, mostly because we Americans are used to certain information presented a certain way and the Euro running lines have information we don’t understand and aren’t used to processing.  And this isn’t an attempt to educate!  I will freely admit if an international race didn’t have Frankel or Black Caviar, I probably didn’t see it.  I most likely will pass again in here and just watch the race, but again a public selection is warranted and I’m going to buy American with Marketing Mix.

In her last three races, she won two and she was closing before missing by a head in the Beverly D.  If she had another 1/16 on the mile and 3/16 distance (for those of you math challenged as I am, that would be a mile and quarter – the Turf distance) she would have beaten I’m A Dreamer.

My Choice: MARKETING MIX

Ladies Classic

WOW!  This race features a LOT of talent.  Every one of the eight entrants hit the board last time out with all but one of those races graded stakes (the other was still a stake); two are undefeated; one is on a four race win streak, another looking for her third; six of the eight won their last race AND the race has the defending champion!!

There are a lot in here that want the front end or stalk a pace.  The only confirmed closer in the group is Include Me Out who probably isn’t nearly as fast as the others in here.  So much so that I’m not sure that even a perfect pace battle can set her up for a win BUT if it does, she should be an excellent price.  We can assume that Love and Pride and Questing will take to the lead and Royal Delta won’t want to be too far behind.  With everyone else BUT Include Me Out wanting to be close to the lead, I’m going to take a chance on the major upset in the major race of the day.

(Side note: of the three 3-year olds, only Questing has beaten older – but nowhere near this caliber)

And added note of interest here: this is the second to last race of the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge and I need to go exacta since I’m so far behind.  So here is my value exacta box for the race – Include Me Out and Royal Delta.  I was tempted to include Love and Pride but I think there is going to be a lot of burn out on the front end.

My Choice: Include Me Out

Best of luck everyone and see you for Day 2 tomorrow!

Birthday Ramblings

(Photo credit: Annie Ringwelski)

 

Unlike my horses, I officially change the year on my actually birthday as opposed to January 1.  This year brings to 47 the number of times that I’ve flipped the calendar and I’m greyer, fatter and sorer than I’ve ever been (thankfully I still have a crapload of Greek hair)!  I’m also deeper into racing than I ever thought I would be – so the tradeoff is equal in my book.

We’re examining possible breeding options for our mare; we have a two-year old that is showing some ability; we nearly have a 2013 claiming group full; I’ve celebrated two seasons with the DRF covering the greatest little racetrack in America; the good folks at Canterbury let me on the air on a semi-regular basis; I’ve spent a wonderful year on the board of the Minnesota Thoroughbred Association (and hope they’ll have me for many more); and nearly got our little posse on the map as part of a new reality series.  I’m a quasi-regular helping out with my picks sure to go wrong with Hello Race Fans and this blog has developed a solid following (love you mom!).  The cherry on the cake is that Minnesota racing is looking as good as it ever has with a future as bright as can be and I’m lucky enough to be involved in it, even in some small way.

I look back at this and realize I barely even dreamt it was possible I was punching tickets at Pimlico on Preakness Day back in 1988.  I loved racing so much and kept close tabs on it for years and nearly always went to bed thinking that it would be great to actually be involved; to be a part of the action; to be on the inside looking out rather than on the outside looking in; to make some kind of a living on the game/industry/sport I love so very much. 

I can’t say that I made it – I still have a “regular” job that, thankfully, allows me to do the rest – but I can say that I’m a lot closer than I ever dreamed possible.  Over the years I kept it in my sights and in the back of my mind.  I had some very, very lucky breaks and some key people (David Miller and Jeff Maday immediately spring to mind) that came along at the right time to help me – debts I can never properly repay.  But when I saw an opportunity to move forward in racing I tried to seize it – some that worked and some that didn’t. 

Failure is always a step away.  If you fail 80% of the time in this game you’re doing pretty well.  Only 70% failure rate? You’re amazing.  Tabby Lane won 25% of her career races and, as a stable over the years we’ve been able to win just shade under 20% with our in the money percentage at 51%.  Horses that we’ve been involved with have won nearly $200,000 and that’s not bad when you consider that we’ve never run in a single stakes race.  Yup – I’ve been mighty lucky and I appreciate every little bit of it.

To close my birthday ramblings, I want to throw one piece of advice (I know, I shouldn’t be giving advice until I hit 50…): while you can’t be afraid to fail, never be afraid to succeed.  As you get more successful you’ll generate more opportunities to be even more successful and they may be a bit out of your comfort zone.  Take them.  Get over it and take them.  You’ll grow from the experience and you’ll gain confidence along the way.  It will be breed more success.  Get out of your own way and just make it happen.  I’ve tried to do that this year and, for the most part, it’s worked out pretty well.  There may be more failure ahead – undoubtedly so – but it won’t come from never having tried.

HRF/BC Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge Race 11: QE II Challenge Cup

The race is coming down to the wire in the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge and due to some bad wagers and operator error (a winning wager not input correctly – freaking dope) I’m in a bad spot: 9^th place and nearly 300 points off of leader Ernie Munick who’s looking to take the field wire to wire.

No more place wagering.  I have to bet to win or take a real shot in the exactas and try to score a solid win.  With only 2 races left before Championship Weekend at the Breeders’ Cup, I need to make a move.

This week’s race is the Grade I QE II Challenge Cup at a mile and an eighth over the Keeneland turf course.  Stephanie’s Kitten enters the race as the 5/2 morning line favorite so that eliminates her from contention – as far as the contest goes.  I need 3-1 or better in order to be able to try and gain some real ground.  No one has really been a consistent scoring machine at all during the contest and as we’re all getting a bit more concerned as the contest winds down, I am hoping that spawns some desperate plays.  If I can go three of the last four at 3-1 or better, I may yet still be able to claim the $2500 prize money for the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.

This week I’m going with Samitar.  Since coming to this country she’s 1 for 2 with her loss coming in the Grade II Lake George soon after her arrival.  After some rest and prep she stormed back to win the Grade I Garden City at Belmont rating just off the pace and getting up to win late.  I’m hoping that she can track behind the early speed of Dayatthespa and get up again over many of these same rivals. 

My two main concerns are: 1) Dayatthespa may have things her own way up front and; 2) she’ll end up lost in the cavalry charge at the end of the race with all the closers.  I can’t dope out a clear exacta choice in here so I’m going Samitar, straight up.

WAGER: $20 win on SAMITAR

HRF/BC Fantasy Capping Charity Contest Week 8 - The Penn Derby

There are five races left until Breeders’ Cup weekend and I’m at least in shouting distance of the lead in the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping Charity Challenge.  I’m debating strategy with myself after the fiasco of being around the winner last week (I’m Boundtoscore in the Summer Stakes) and betting like an idiot (exacta rather than a straight wager).

This week we head to the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing and see at a couple of old friends from the Travers Stakes hooking up again, dead heaters Golden Ticket and Alpha.  In addition to Alpha, who rated just off the pace nicely in the Travers, other potential speed in the race includes Casual Trick and Csaba – though all have an ability to sit off a pace.  The only really deep closer in the race is Handsome Mike – and he hasn’t won since breaking his maiden; it would be quite the accomplishment (and surprise) if he steps up to win this one.

A relative closer (in this group) coming off a nice win and may step up at a small price here is on the outside: Macho Macho.  The Grade II West Virginia Derby winner looks like he could have things his own way in the stretch run at Parx and the distance looks to suite him.

The question in the contest is whether or not to combine him with another horse and try and hit a solid exacta or stick to what’s been winning: $20 place wagers.  It really is against my nature to be conservative and if the top two choices falter coming off of that dead heat that place wager could earn close to 50 points.  My exacta choice would be with Alpha, a horse that has only missed an exacta twice in 9 career starts.  At a 4-1 morning line, there is the temptation to go with a straight win on Macho Macho as well – a potential 100 points is very enticing.

Since I really feel that the race will set up nicely for Macho Macho but I don’t believe he’s the best horse in the race, I’m going against type and staying conservative hoping to chip away at the lead.

The wager: $20 PLACE on MACHO MACHO