Breeders' Cup Friday

Things tend to get a little away from you when you're not at home and the Breeders' Cup (Tickets STILL available, click the box upper left of the screen) is no exception!  Ideally my thoughts on Friday would have been up a day or so ago, but that simply wasn't going to happen.  However, it IS before post time and you can also see my picks (and those from other "experts" who are bound to be more correct than I!) over at Hello Race Fans.  Here is my reasoning behind Friday's selections:

MARATHON

This is always a fun race to watch.  We get so few races at a mile and a half or better in the US that to watch one is a treat. Not many in here have gone this far though most look like they have the pedigree to do so. I went for a lot of value in this one - at least in theory.

Commander can get the early lead but will probably be pressed early on by the likes of the morning line favorite, Ever Rider - making his first US start after running exclusively in South America.  London Bridge and Blueskiesandrainbows will probably want to be close early as well.

My choice is Worldly.  Yes, he hasn't won in forever and is very lightly raced the last few years, but his pattern this year is a nice one to me - when looking at a mile and 3/4.  Lost by 8 to probably Golden Ticket's best race of the season and then just missed at Remington coming hard at the end.  Last out was defeated by Fort Larned, which is no shame and all the while (well, maybe not in his last) you get the feeling that he may want even more ground than the 1 1/8, 1 1/4 that he's been getting.

Winning this race would be a huge upset, but I like the way the race sets up and I think he'll be more than the 6-1 morning line, making him worth a shot.

JUVENILE TURF

Not exactly going out on a limb here.  Bobby's Kitten earned his trade in his first race and came back to break his maiden easily in his second.  He then stepped right up to a Grade 3 in the Pilgrim and won that with ease.  Aidan O'Brien's Giovanni Boldini is going to be a tough.  With the babies you never know who is going to jump up, but this looks like the exacta to me.

DIRT MILE

Always a fun race and my favorite 3-year old this year, Verrazano, comes in as the morning line favorite.  I'm not picking him, but if he wins in spectacular fashion, I will rip up my ticket and give him an ovation, I really think he's spectacular.  However, I'm riding the hot hand in this one and that is Pants on Fire.  Really professional wins in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup and the Grade 3 Ack Ack and then a brief breather while working tremendously before shipping west.

Goldencents is at home and Alpha is cutting back to a distance where he may be more comfortable and effective.  A very competitive race but I'm looking at Pants on Fire to pick up the pieces down the land to win it.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

I went way outside here and could end up in big trouble, but My Conquestadory is the pick.  I love the way she was able to pick her way through traffic at Keeneland last out, something you don't just see from babies too often.  The odds are good that she'll have to do it again here in order to win.  The French Vorda is the popular pick and another French filly, Testa Rossi, is on a very nice roll.  Sky Painter could be an excellent value at 15-1 morning line after a very strong finish behind Testa Rossi in the Grade 3 Ms Grillo.

This looks to be a nice race to box a few and nail a tri or super.

DISTAFF

Could be the greatest collection of filly and mare talent ever.  I don't think that Street Girl can win.  I can absolutely make a case for the other five.  I'm going with Princess of Sylmar because she's on a roll and has beaten a couple in here in the process, including the older mare Royal Delta.  I would love to see Beholder win it (she's my distaff Verrazano, I just love her) but I think her speed mixing it up with Royal Delta and possibly Close Hatches could set things up very nicely for the streaking Princess.

Best of luck everybody.  I'll be tweeting some thoughts and pictures from Day 1 at Santa Anita throughout the weekend and you can catch those on Twitter by following me @tlgrevelis.

139th Kentucky Derby: 0-139?

It’s Derby time again and for the 139^th year in a row I will try and end my streak of futility.  Of course it is not that long, but it sure feels like it has been.  For expert selections (and mine) for the Derby and undercard visit the outstanding fan education site Hello Race Fans.  Let’s take a brief look at the field:

Black Onyx (Breen/Bravo) – SCRATCH (escapes the jinx)

Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens): Hasn’t won since the Grade 3 LeComte early in the year and was beaten by several in here at the Arkansas Derby.  Had traffic trouble there but don’t expect anything less in Louisville!

Revolutionary (Pletcher/Borel): Sporting a 3-race winning streak including wins in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Grade 3 Withers.  Should have some distance limitations but has been winning with each consecutive stretch out.

Golden Soul (Stewart/Albarado): Since Mine That Bird I’ve tried to make it a point of never counting any horse out, but it’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Golden Soul wins this race.

Normandy Invasion (Brown/Castellano): A hip pick after a rapidly closing 2^nd to Verrazano in the Grade 1 Wood but has not had his nose on the wire first since his maiden score at 2.

My Lute (Amoss/Napravnik): Very game in battling Revolutionary to the wire at the Fairgrounds.  Most impressive win was in an Optional Claimer but has fallen short against better.

Giant Finish (Dutrow/Espinoza): Only has run against state breds and over synthetic.  Just don’t see it.

Goldencents (O’Neill/Krigger): Doug O’Neill brings in another relatively unknown jockey to the Derby aboard a colt that impressively won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  A mile and a quarter might be much for this guy and he’s going to want to be on or near the lead and it’ll be tough to slow down a 19 horse field.  Mud may help this one.

Overanalyze (Pletcher/Bejarano): Something I am definitely doing after years of futility…  Impressive winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after disappointing in the Gotham.  Seems to have found a pilot he can bond with in Bejarano.

Palace Malice (Pletcher/Smith): Another trendy pick who hasn’t won since his maiden.  Came very close in the Blue Grass, but that was over the synthetic surface.  May be a better turfer than dirt.

Lines of Battle (O’Brien/Moore):  Winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby, the distance won’t be an issue but the crowded field and the dirt surface may be.

Itsmyluckyday (Plesa/Trujillo): After impressive back to back wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Grade 3 Holy Bull, the colt was away for nearly 2 months before coming up short in the Grade 1 Florida Derby showcasing what could be some distance limitations.

Falling Sky (Terranova/Saez): After upsetting the field in the Sam Davis at Tampa, the colt was well beaten by many of these in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby.

Verrazano (Pletcher/Velazquez): Undefeated frontrunner has really yet to be challenged.  Seemed to have been nearly caught by Normandy Invasion in the Wood but remained unbeaten.  Going to be tough to grab the lead from the 14 hole and may need to navigate some unfamiliar territory to win the race.

Charming Kitten (Pletcher/Prado): Yet another Pletcher entry, this one’s only win since its maiden was a score in the race named for his sire.  Recipient of the Sandra Swan top choice and she has been scary with longshots – don’t overlook; even if it is his first time on dirt.

Orb (McGaughey/Rosario): Winner of four in a row in impressive fashion.  Had to navigate traffic and charge from off the pace – all skills he will need Saturday afternoon.  Should be able to run whether it’s wet or dry.  Deserved ML favorite.

Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court): Won the Grade 2 Rebel at 28-1 to get into the field and has been off since that effort on March 16.  Been working consistently but can’t say brilliantly.

Frac Daddy (McPeek/Lebron): Another eligible for a non-winners of one race other than maiden allowance.  Hasn’t shown enough against this type to figure.

Java’s War (McPeek/Leparoux): Grade 1 Blue Grass winner appears to better on synthetic/grass.

Vyjack (Rodriguez/Gomez): Winner of four in a row until running into Verrazano in the Wood, a mile and a quarter doesn’t appear to be his best distance and it will be difficult to track the pace from post position 20.

Who gets Ted’s kiss of death this year?  Depending upon who you talk to this is either a two horse race between Verrazano and Orb or a wide open affair with God knows who winning.  I don’t think that this is as wide open as the Oaks appeared to be and I also feel that Orb and Verrazano are the class of this group.  However, and this is a big however, there are 17 other horses in the race – all going further than they have ever gone before – and there will be traffic and there will be trouble.  Who survives the trouble and can get the distance wins the race.

I am a fan of not betting a horse that is being asked to do something that it’s never done before.  In this case we have 19 horses all being asked to go a mile and a quarter: level playing field.  Loads of potential traffic issues: that narrows things down a bit.  Despite all the trendy upset picks like Oxbow, Normandy Invasion and even Palace Malice, I really do think that Orb and Verrazano are the two most talented horses in the gate but only one of them has dealt with trouble, dug in and overcame it: My apologies, Heather...this year's choice is Orb

1.      Orb        2. Verrazano       3. Charming Kitten           4. Revolutionary