Breeders' Cup - Day 2

Day One was a mitigated disaster: yeah there wasn’t a single win on the card for me but my top choices did finish 2^nd three times and 3^rd twice over the course of the six races.  If I was a show better this would be outstanding; as a win/place better…not so great, but mitigated rather than unmitigated. The biggest disappointment on the day for me was the Ladies Classic where I had longshot Include Me Out in the exacta with winner Royal Delta.  Joe Talamo had Include Me Out in good position but the one thing I was afraid of, that she just wasn’t as good as the top horses in there, panned out as she was outfinished for the second spot by the very classy My Miss Aurelia.  It was a microcosm of a tough day.

BUT…there is Day 2.  As a horseplayer we always live to fight another day and “another day” is today.

Juvenile Turf

Several really nice graded stakes winners in this field including Noble Tune (Gr 3 Pilgrim), I’m Boundtoscore (Gr 2 Summer), Balance the Books (Gr 3 Bourbon) and Joha (Gr 1 Breeders’ Futurity).  You can even through in European Group 3 Solario Stakes winner Fantastic Moon and Group 3 Acomb Stakes winner Dundonnell into that group.  There are also a variety of running styles in here but only one of the really classy horses that I would consider good early speed and that’s Joha.  He just missed wiring the field in the Grade 2 With Anticipation before his gate to wire score in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. 

My Choice: Joha

Filly & Mare Sprint

Groupie Doll.  Moving on…

Dirt Mile

This turned out to be quite the fun little race.  Fan favorite Shackleford will lead the field to the post after a couple of disappointing efforts post Met Mile triumph.  Emcee, just on his outside has only failed to record a triple digit Beyer number in only two of his career starts.  Mystic Lake Derby runner up Delegation will try dirt for the first time off back-to-back wins over the artificial surface at Woodbine and Jersey Town comes in after surprising just about everyone (including Shakleford) in the Grade 1 Kelso with ease.  Shackleford and Emcee both like being on or near the led early and, unfortunately for them, so do Fed Biz, Delegation and perhaps even Second City.  All that speed could set things up for the improving Jersey Town to surprise them again.  I don’t think that Jersey Town is the best horse in the race, but ask The Fugue if the best horse always wins…

My Choice: Jersey Town

Turf Sprint

Not a fan of this race, though it does appear to be a bit wide open and could present a decent wagering opportunity if you really have a strong feeling.  This is one race I do not have an overly strong feeling about, but may jump on Unbridled’s Note if the price is right.  Steve Asmussen has Great Mills in to oush along the pacesetters like California Flag (if I DON’T pick him, he wins – so be forewarned) and Renneesgotzip.  Normally you could throw Bridgetown into that mix but in the Grade 3 Woodford he sat off the pace a bit and came charging late to blow past Great Mills to win that race.  The hope here is that Bridgetown, second off a layoff, feels a bit more keen than last time and tries to take to the lead.  Unbridled’s Note won’t be too far behind and will pick up the pieces.

My Choice: Unbridled’s Note

Juvenile

The Juvy looks like it comes down to undefeated Todd Pletcher trainee Shanghai Bobby and Bob Baffert trained Power Broker who appears to have figured out this racing thing in the Grade 1 Front Runner.  Power Broker is going to want to sit off an early pace while Shanghai Bobby will want to stay close to, if not on, the early lead.  Power Broker’s connections have Title Contender breaking from the one hole and, while certainly not out of his depth in here, will certainly ensure a solid early pace to run at.  Will Bobby take the bait and go or be able to sit off of Title Contender’s flank until it’s time to run?  While Shanghai Bobby is stretching out, the distance should not be an issue while Power Broker has a win at this distance AND over this course.  This one is a toss up: do you prefer the local angle or the undefeated colt that has yet to throw in a clunker?

My Choice: Shanghai Bobby (but narrowly)

Turf

A nice mixed contingent in the turf with some very nice Euros squaring off against an American entry that is seemingly getting stronger with every start.  A nice colt prior to trying the turf, Point of Entry has turned into a monster once he was introduced to the sod by trainer Shug McGaughey.  Carrying the fabled colors of the Phipps stable, Point of Entry is on quite a roll, winning his last five races: four graded stakes, the last three of which were grade ones.  His Beyer numbers have increased with every race during that streak and he’s come from far back and from just off the pace to tally the wins.  Prior to shipping he threw two bullet works and is as sharp as can be heading into the biggest race of his career.

My Choice: Point of Entry

Sprint

There is surely enough early speed in the race to ensure a fair trip around the oval which really leads you to two horses: Amazombie or The Lumber Guy.  Do you believe in the local prep and Amazombie needing that last after a layoff to sharpen up for this one or do you buy into The Lumber Guy’s amazing 110 Beyer in the Grade 1 Vosburgh off the bench?  The Lumber Guy had been training superbly before leaving New York and sprinting certainly seems to be his forte.  Amazombie, who I’ve heard has been called the best dirt sprinter in North America, emerged from seclusion for 1:08.3 to take the Bing Crosby over the artificial surface at Del Mar before heading back to get ready for this race.  He certainly loves being home in California and if he did indeed need one race before the Sprint, Amazombie will be tough to beat – especially with all time BC winningest rider Mike Smith aboard.

My Choice: The Lumber Guy (BUT…and this is a big but here…should the locally prepped horses earlier on the card keep outperforming their Eastern counterparts, I’ll be on Amazombie here)

Mile

US v. Europe.  The best turf miler in America, Wise Dan, takes on the second best turf miler in Europe, Excelebration.  In his last 10 starts, Excelebration has won 6, placing in three and third in the other.  The winning horse each and every time?  Some git named Frankel!  But does losing to a super horse by  combined 16 lengths automatically make you a world beater as well?  I think if they were Affirmed/Alydar type duals then I think the case would be stronger.

Wise Dan has won four of five starts this year and narrowly missed an undefeated season when he just couldn’t get there in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster ...on dirt.  Wise Dan has been remarkably consistent this year winning each mile race with ease and recording solid Beyer figures in each race. 

Both horses need some speed to run at since neither is going to take this field wire to wire.  A horse that will try is Obviously.  Ridden by Joe Talamo, Obviously has won three straight in frontrunning fashion, including the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile and the Grade 2 Arroyo Secco Mile over this very course.  There isn’t a whole lot of speed in this race to go with Obviously so Talamo will gun to the lead and try and hold on the charge.  If he can succeed at slowing down the middle quarters, it will be tough for the top two to catch him since he is really no slouch himself.

My Choice: Obviously (he might not be the best, but he may get the best trip)

Classic

I know it’s been said a million times already, but this Classic is the deepest I’ve ever seen.  Every entrant is a graded stakes winner: many multiple and most just this year.  Of Flat Out, Alpha, Fort Larned, Game on Dude, Richard’s Kid, Ron the Greek, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve – one of them has to finish eighth!!  We could all make a case for just about any horse in here winning and I could agree with the justification.  I need to make a pick here because I have to, but there is a very, very good chance that I’ll be watching this one without a ticket in my hand.

My Choice: Game On Dude (going with who I think is the best horse – but this will be a test for sure)

In the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping Challenge I need a high priced exacta, so my contest pick will be the exacta box of Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned (I TOLD you, I need a high payer).

Best of luck everyone!

Hi-Ho Pimlico!

OK, so it's not "Get Your Preak On", but a throw back slogan to my younger days when I was a grandstand denizen and ticket puncher at Old Hilltop. A ghost of Preaknesses past. Still, I like the new slogan and the effort being made to energize the second jewel of the Triple Crown and inject some youthful exuberance.

It's no secret that I want to win the Preakness someday. The other two jewels would be nice, but if I could only choose one, I'd want the Woodlawn Vase - probably because I spent so much time there a lifetime ago and where I kindled my love of the game. Obviously I don't have a horse in the race this year (you wouldn't hear the end of it if I did!) but I also don't have a black cloud over my head when it comes to picking a Preakness winner.

While there are several nice newcomers to the Trail this weekend, I see myself going very chalky in this one.

1. Aikinite (Pletcher/Castellano) - Hasn't won since first out back in August. Some nice efforts including a wide second in the Derby Trial last out, but probably a step below these - especially over a dry track.

2. Schoolyard Dreams (Ryan/Coa) - After a heart pounding finish and loss by the slimmest of noses in the Tampa Bay Derby, he put in a Derby dream ending flat as a pancake Wood.

3. Pleasant Prince (Ward/Leparoux) - The stand out effort in the Florida Derby appears to have been an anomaly.

4. Northern Giant (Lukas/Thompson) - Best bid was over the synthetic. Another still eligible for a NW2 allowance.

5. Yawanna Twist (Dutrow/Prado) - Interesting runner up in the Gotham and Illinois with four solid efforts lifetime but certainly not flattered by the company he kept in either.

6. Jackson Bend (Zito/Smith) - Though steadied early in the Derby, he never worked his way back into contention like Lookin at Lucky did. Still a bridesmaid after a sizzling two-year old season. If anyone can shake it off and jump him up, it's Zito, but this one seems to slide a bit with extra distance. Could be a sprinting monster.

7. Lookin at Lucky (Baffert/Garcia) - Baffert is hoping that a change in jockey will change the horse's luck. Rough trip's have been the hallmark of his three year old season. May be the most talented colt in the race. If he can finally actually get lucky, he's a winner.

8. Super Saver (Petcher/Borel) - Great trip, loved the slop and Calvin was king. This year he stays on the Derby winner as he tries to win back-to-back Preaknesses. With a seeming lack of solid pace in the race, could Calvin take the field wire to wire? Could be.

9. Caracortado (Machowsky/Atkinson) - $40,000 would have bought you this one in his debut. A disappointing race in the Santa Anita kept this one out of the Derby which may have been a blessing. Fresh and ready he's a sentimental favorite but probably a cut below the top three here.

10. Paddy O'Prado (Romans/Desormeaux) - Desormeaux returns to where he rode as a bug boy back in my Maryland heyday. A solid race in the Derby showed he could handle the dirt track, though he's never ran over a dry, fast dirt course. He really stepped up when the spotlight was on though this time he'll probably not be so far back and need to press the pace a bit.

11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) - Hard to fathom that this one has a shot.

12. Dublin (Gomez) - Gomez finds a mount but he certainly didn't get any luckier with the Irish here. His preps were a series of almost theres and his Derby was flat. It's tough to imagine that Dublin has the chance to win his first race since last September against this field.

The lack of a real speedster or two in this group makes it an interesting race to figure out. No one in here is a confirmed front runner, but the Derby winner has done it in the past and this race sets up for him to take to the front and do it again. If Paddy O'Prado takes to his flank early and Lookin at Lucky can finally catch a break I think that Lucky can take this one with Super Saver holding for second with Paddy holding off Dublin for the show spot.

Selections:

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Super Saver
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Dublin

Derby Musings (+3.70!)

Despite my continuing record of futility I was able to eek out a "profit" on the Churchill card. Yes, my choice finished 9th. It actually may be one of my better choices!! No one really cares about, though, what we care about is the Derby. There will be plenty of coverage online detailing the racerunning itself at the Daily Race Form. Be sure to check the blogs I follow down the left side of this page for some interesting views on the race.

Some of my thoughts on the day we had:

- How about Borel? Holy crap! A great ride and it is unbelievable that he has won three of the last four Derbies. An absolutely stellar performance. Pletcher is right - at Churchill, Borel is a rock star.

- Finally Todd! While my string of Derby failures continues, Todd Pletcher's comes to a screeching halt. He carried himself admirably all week long answering every question about the 0-24 with grace and aplomb. I found myself very happy that he won. Granted, I wish he did it with Mission Impazible, but I'm happy for him none-the-less.

- Lookin at Lucky. Man, did he get pinballed around!! When the dust settled he was 6th. All in all, that was a pretty impressive performance. This type of trip is one of the reasons I hate the twenty horse field. This horse is a star and will prove it the rest of the year.

- Chasing the Dream Racing 2008 LLC. A bunch of folks buy a horse for $10,000 and end up in the Kentucky Derby. Sounds like my dream! I can only hope that Tabby Lane is a fraction as successful as Noble's Promise.

- A not so Awesome Act. Yikes. He was nowhere to be seen the entire race. The sexy pick of the 'experts'? Not so much.

- 99-1. The odds that Backtalk should have been going into this race. The "Mine That Bird effect" at work. Everyone wanted to be on the longshot and handicapping took a vacation. 23-1?

- Post 20. Sidney's Candy broke well, got with the front group and promptly fell out of contention when it counted. Was it the post or was it the dirt? We may never know.

- Freight train. How about that closing kick from Ice Box? I have to agree with the folks that say skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont. A smaller field and that closing kick could be deadly at a mile and a half.

- The filly. She had a good first portion of the race but ran into all kinds of problems - not to mention Discreetly Mine and Dublin - in the last portion of the race. She a nice filly and she'll be fun to watch battling it out with Blind Luck and Evening Jewel the rest of the year.

- Triple Crown. Is Super Saver the Triple Crown lock that Borel says he is? His worst finish ever was a fourth only beaten by 2 lengths as a 2-year old. He obviously handled the distance and seems to be improving with each added furlong, but it's a tough row to hoe. The upside for him? The rest of the crop that are eligible to run over the next 5 weeks do not seem overly impressive. As noted above, Ice Box would be tough in the Belmont. Bottom line: It could happen but it won't be easy.

So another Derby is in the books and my horse betting skills in the biggest race in America have failed once again. Thankfully the rest of the card worked out. Now the real fun begins.

Reverse the Curse!

So here we are on the cusp of the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (last time I use THAT!) and the world is waiting to see what horse it is they should avoid tomorrow; the horse that Ted will curse with the appellation of “his” Derby horse. Sure, you may scoff at the curse, but I will point out that after the Fountain of Youth I laid claim to Eskendereyea as “the One” on Facebook. No need to tell you what happened to that poor guy. I’m sure that Joe Talamo is hoping and praying that I don’t choose Sidney’s Candy. You may recall that last year my pre-race choice, I Want Revenge, scratched as the MORNING LINE FAVORITE leaving Joe without a Derby mount! Sorry, bud.

If I were betting all 136 Derbies, no doubt I would be 0 - 136, but a quitter I am not, so here we go again…

1. Lookin at Lucky – Hard to see a better effort than the one he put in to win the Rebel. By all accounts, Gomez cost him in the Santa Anita Derby so you can be sure he will try and keep him out of harms way. Probably easier said than done coming out of the 1 spot.

2. Ice Box – A fantastic late run to win the Florida Derby after getting smoked in the Fountain of Youth. In a field of this size he’ll need to revert to stalking the pace rather than trying to overcome it from way behind. MINE THAT BIRD notwithstanding, it is tough to navigate a field this size from back in the pack.

3. Noble’s Promise – Only a bridesmaid in 2010 and has not been near as impressive as others have been. With all the trouble LOOKIN AT LUCKY had, he could still not hold on for the win in the Rebel and couldn’t overcome trouble of his own in the Arkansas Derby either.

4. Super Saver – A favorite of many, his front running style should keep him out of trouble but there are going to be other frontrunners to contend with, especially on his right shoulder. I don’t know if he’ll be able to get there.

5. Line of David – We all know where this one is going to be out of the gate. Once they let him take the bit and run he’s 3 for 3 with his key win being the turf to dirt triumph in the Arkansas Derby.

6. Stately Victor – Great name but two attempts on dirt were less than inspiring. Won the Bluegrass easily, but was not the deepest Derby prep race either.

7. American Lion – Talk about your weak fields, it’s hard to imagine that the Illinois Derby winner is going to be able to really tackle this group, though if he can rate rather than trying the lead, he could end up surprising at a price.

8. Dean’s Kitten – The Lane’s End winner has been on the steady improve the last few months getting better with each effort. His PPs scream turf specialist, but has been working well over the main track.

9. Make Music for Me - He’s been coming into his own lately after an 0-fer 2 year old campaign which saw him compete in only 1 maiden race. Still eligible for a non-winners of 2 allowance. This would be a huge surprise.

10. Paddy O’Prado – Had some nice efforts recently, but again, only over turf/synthetic. Turned in a bullet work over a sloppy Churchill track which is what he is likely to see tomorrow as well.

11. Devil May Care – One of only three in the field to earn a triple digit Beyer (100), the filly will need to prove that the 100 earned in the Bonnie Miss was no fluke since it was a huge jump when compared to her past efforts.

12. Conveyance – Another sexy choice, but I just don’t see this one carrying his speed a mile and a quarter. If anything, he will join the fray up front and make it that much harder for any of the frontrunners to win this one.

13. Jackson Bend – Lucky number 13. He’s 3 for 3 in the bridemaid category this season so far with two of those losses coming at the hands of my initial choice, ESKENDEREYA. His style looks to suite the shape of this race, but he may be a notch below the best in here.

14. Mission Impazible – It may very well be just that for the Louisiana Derby winner. However, he seems to be improving with each race and each increase in distance. He’s proven to run well in the slop and could be sitting in a nice position behind the speed to make a difference in the end.

15. Discreetly Mine – Was a beaten favorite in the slop in the Spectacular Bid, but had other troubles in there as well. It doesn’t appear that he’ll be able to rate off the hot early pace and that could spell big trouble for the Mineshaft colt.

16. Awesome Act – Followed up a great win in the Gotham with a troubled trip in the Wood, though he still was nearly able to hold off Jackson Bend for second. Hard to tell if the wide trip or the extra distance tripped him up.

17. Dublin – Though close in some difficult preps, this one hasn’t won since the Hopeful last season. After being beaten by as many as 5 of these, it’s hard to imagine that he will get just that much better this time out.

18. Backtalk – Does not even have a Beyer over 90. I know I said after last year that I would never say never again…but - not a snowball’s chance in hell.

19. Homeboykris – Another without a 90+ Beyer. Couldn’t even win an allowance last out which was back in February. Would be a miracle.

20. Sidney’s Candy – An alert break would make all the difference for this one. With two non-descript horses on the inside of him and no early speed until you get to the 15 spot, Talamo may get a break and into the mix early, like the horse wants, without as much early exertion as you would think coming out of the 20 hole. In 2010 he has been a machine going three for three, though some would say Lookin at Lucky’s trip could have only made that 2 for 3.

So that’s the field. Where do I see the race going? It’s tough to say because we know that there is virtually no chance of the track being fast come race time given the forecast of heavy rain through Friday and Saturday in Louisville. Super Saver is the only one of the contenders that has had a win in the slop, but that’s not saying much because most of the rest have only run on fast tracks.

Several of our contenders also are coming into this race only running on synthetic/turf – more than I feel I’ve ever seen coming into a Kentucky Derby. I’m not sold on the horses prepping over synthetic and then coming into the Derby. Pioneerof the Nile had a nice run last year, but still wasn’t the winner. I also think he was exceptional and I don’t know if any of these contenders come across as exceptional.

There will be speed to burn up front and there will be a few trying to close from the back. I think the ideal spot is going to be behind that burning speed as trying to close over what promises to be a sloppy track is going to be next to impossible. Here is how I see the finish:

1. Mission Impazible
2. Lookin at Lucky
3. Awesome Act
4. Ice Box

My apologies to Twin Creeks Racing Stable and Todd Pletcher.