Obligatory Breeder's Cup Post - Day 2 (Can Zenyatta Be Beat?)

Day Two is upon us, or as it’s known on the West Coast, Zenyatta’s Coronation!

For a more detailed analysis of each race, just click on the player to the left and listen to the Blog Talk Radio show.

Juvenile Turf

Master of Hounds – Best of a weak bunch.
Utley – Second best Euro in the field.
Mantoba – Yes, the Americans in here are that weak.

Sprint

Big Drama - Could be 4-0 in 2010 without starting issues.
Girolamo - Coming in off a huge win in the Vosburgh.
Riley Tucker - Right there behind Girolamo

Turf Sprint

Silver Timber – All angles seem to lead back to “but he was beaten by Silver Timber”.
Central City – Can certainly improve off of the first race back from the layoff and score here.
Quick Enough – Claimed twice in the last four months and now running in the BC. LOVE IT!

Juvenile

Uncle Mo – Wow. Hasn’t even breathed heavy to win yet. Very impressive 2 year old.
Boys at Tosconova – I like the dirt form, if he gets the distance, he’s right in here.
Jaycito – Don’t like the first time dirt, but this is a talented colt.

Mile

Sydney’s Candy – More of a value wager. Odds should be good and last shows that his true calling may be on turf.
Goldikova – Defending champ and best in the race. Given her prohibitively low odds, I’ll take a stab with another.
Gio Ponti – Won’t grab that elusive BC victory, but an outstanding horse non-the-less.

Turf

SCRATCHED! Workforce – Going for a Epsom, Arc and BC trifecta. Very impressive.
Behkabad – Impeded a bit in the Arc, though I don’t think as talented as the top choice. Should be favorite with top choice now out.
Dangerous Midge – Euro sweep.

Dirt Mile

Here Comes Ben – Since moving to the dirt is 3-0 and 100+ Beyers. Found his calling.
Tizway – Probably too much other early speed to last, but better than the rest.
Gayego – deep closer could move up to second with enough of a pace.

Classic

Haynesfield – Like Sydney’s Candy, this is a value wager, trying to beat an overlay. If Zenyatta gets over even money, the play goes there.
Zenyatta – Could be the best ever. Deep field + real dirt = her only opportunity to be beaten.
Blame – Will be prominent early, but will wear down late.

Good luck everyone!

Hi-Ho Pimlico!

OK, so it's not "Get Your Preak On", but a throw back slogan to my younger days when I was a grandstand denizen and ticket puncher at Old Hilltop. A ghost of Preaknesses past. Still, I like the new slogan and the effort being made to energize the second jewel of the Triple Crown and inject some youthful exuberance.

It's no secret that I want to win the Preakness someday. The other two jewels would be nice, but if I could only choose one, I'd want the Woodlawn Vase - probably because I spent so much time there a lifetime ago and where I kindled my love of the game. Obviously I don't have a horse in the race this year (you wouldn't hear the end of it if I did!) but I also don't have a black cloud over my head when it comes to picking a Preakness winner.

While there are several nice newcomers to the Trail this weekend, I see myself going very chalky in this one.

1. Aikinite (Pletcher/Castellano) - Hasn't won since first out back in August. Some nice efforts including a wide second in the Derby Trial last out, but probably a step below these - especially over a dry track.

2. Schoolyard Dreams (Ryan/Coa) - After a heart pounding finish and loss by the slimmest of noses in the Tampa Bay Derby, he put in a Derby dream ending flat as a pancake Wood.

3. Pleasant Prince (Ward/Leparoux) - The stand out effort in the Florida Derby appears to have been an anomaly.

4. Northern Giant (Lukas/Thompson) - Best bid was over the synthetic. Another still eligible for a NW2 allowance.

5. Yawanna Twist (Dutrow/Prado) - Interesting runner up in the Gotham and Illinois with four solid efforts lifetime but certainly not flattered by the company he kept in either.

6. Jackson Bend (Zito/Smith) - Though steadied early in the Derby, he never worked his way back into contention like Lookin at Lucky did. Still a bridesmaid after a sizzling two-year old season. If anyone can shake it off and jump him up, it's Zito, but this one seems to slide a bit with extra distance. Could be a sprinting monster.

7. Lookin at Lucky (Baffert/Garcia) - Baffert is hoping that a change in jockey will change the horse's luck. Rough trip's have been the hallmark of his three year old season. May be the most talented colt in the race. If he can finally actually get lucky, he's a winner.

8. Super Saver (Petcher/Borel) - Great trip, loved the slop and Calvin was king. This year he stays on the Derby winner as he tries to win back-to-back Preaknesses. With a seeming lack of solid pace in the race, could Calvin take the field wire to wire? Could be.

9. Caracortado (Machowsky/Atkinson) - $40,000 would have bought you this one in his debut. A disappointing race in the Santa Anita kept this one out of the Derby which may have been a blessing. Fresh and ready he's a sentimental favorite but probably a cut below the top three here.

10. Paddy O'Prado (Romans/Desormeaux) - Desormeaux returns to where he rode as a bug boy back in my Maryland heyday. A solid race in the Derby showed he could handle the dirt track, though he's never ran over a dry, fast dirt course. He really stepped up when the spotlight was on though this time he'll probably not be so far back and need to press the pace a bit.

11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) - Hard to fathom that this one has a shot.

12. Dublin (Gomez) - Gomez finds a mount but he certainly didn't get any luckier with the Irish here. His preps were a series of almost theres and his Derby was flat. It's tough to imagine that Dublin has the chance to win his first race since last September against this field.

The lack of a real speedster or two in this group makes it an interesting race to figure out. No one in here is a confirmed front runner, but the Derby winner has done it in the past and this race sets up for him to take to the front and do it again. If Paddy O'Prado takes to his flank early and Lookin at Lucky can finally catch a break I think that Lucky can take this one with Super Saver holding for second with Paddy holding off Dublin for the show spot.

Selections:

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Super Saver
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Dublin

Derby Musings (+3.70!)

Despite my continuing record of futility I was able to eek out a "profit" on the Churchill card. Yes, my choice finished 9th. It actually may be one of my better choices!! No one really cares about, though, what we care about is the Derby. There will be plenty of coverage online detailing the racerunning itself at the Daily Race Form. Be sure to check the blogs I follow down the left side of this page for some interesting views on the race.

Some of my thoughts on the day we had:

- How about Borel? Holy crap! A great ride and it is unbelievable that he has won three of the last four Derbies. An absolutely stellar performance. Pletcher is right - at Churchill, Borel is a rock star.

- Finally Todd! While my string of Derby failures continues, Todd Pletcher's comes to a screeching halt. He carried himself admirably all week long answering every question about the 0-24 with grace and aplomb. I found myself very happy that he won. Granted, I wish he did it with Mission Impazible, but I'm happy for him none-the-less.

- Lookin at Lucky. Man, did he get pinballed around!! When the dust settled he was 6th. All in all, that was a pretty impressive performance. This type of trip is one of the reasons I hate the twenty horse field. This horse is a star and will prove it the rest of the year.

- Chasing the Dream Racing 2008 LLC. A bunch of folks buy a horse for $10,000 and end up in the Kentucky Derby. Sounds like my dream! I can only hope that Tabby Lane is a fraction as successful as Noble's Promise.

- A not so Awesome Act. Yikes. He was nowhere to be seen the entire race. The sexy pick of the 'experts'? Not so much.

- 99-1. The odds that Backtalk should have been going into this race. The "Mine That Bird effect" at work. Everyone wanted to be on the longshot and handicapping took a vacation. 23-1?

- Post 20. Sidney's Candy broke well, got with the front group and promptly fell out of contention when it counted. Was it the post or was it the dirt? We may never know.

- Freight train. How about that closing kick from Ice Box? I have to agree with the folks that say skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont. A smaller field and that closing kick could be deadly at a mile and a half.

- The filly. She had a good first portion of the race but ran into all kinds of problems - not to mention Discreetly Mine and Dublin - in the last portion of the race. She a nice filly and she'll be fun to watch battling it out with Blind Luck and Evening Jewel the rest of the year.

- Triple Crown. Is Super Saver the Triple Crown lock that Borel says he is? His worst finish ever was a fourth only beaten by 2 lengths as a 2-year old. He obviously handled the distance and seems to be improving with each added furlong, but it's a tough row to hoe. The upside for him? The rest of the crop that are eligible to run over the next 5 weeks do not seem overly impressive. As noted above, Ice Box would be tough in the Belmont. Bottom line: It could happen but it won't be easy.

So another Derby is in the books and my horse betting skills in the biggest race in America have failed once again. Thankfully the rest of the card worked out. Now the real fun begins.

Reverse the Curse!

So here we are on the cusp of the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (last time I use THAT!) and the world is waiting to see what horse it is they should avoid tomorrow; the horse that Ted will curse with the appellation of “his” Derby horse. Sure, you may scoff at the curse, but I will point out that after the Fountain of Youth I laid claim to Eskendereyea as “the One” on Facebook. No need to tell you what happened to that poor guy. I’m sure that Joe Talamo is hoping and praying that I don’t choose Sidney’s Candy. You may recall that last year my pre-race choice, I Want Revenge, scratched as the MORNING LINE FAVORITE leaving Joe without a Derby mount! Sorry, bud.

If I were betting all 136 Derbies, no doubt I would be 0 - 136, but a quitter I am not, so here we go again…

1. Lookin at Lucky – Hard to see a better effort than the one he put in to win the Rebel. By all accounts, Gomez cost him in the Santa Anita Derby so you can be sure he will try and keep him out of harms way. Probably easier said than done coming out of the 1 spot.

2. Ice Box – A fantastic late run to win the Florida Derby after getting smoked in the Fountain of Youth. In a field of this size he’ll need to revert to stalking the pace rather than trying to overcome it from way behind. MINE THAT BIRD notwithstanding, it is tough to navigate a field this size from back in the pack.

3. Noble’s Promise – Only a bridesmaid in 2010 and has not been near as impressive as others have been. With all the trouble LOOKIN AT LUCKY had, he could still not hold on for the win in the Rebel and couldn’t overcome trouble of his own in the Arkansas Derby either.

4. Super Saver – A favorite of many, his front running style should keep him out of trouble but there are going to be other frontrunners to contend with, especially on his right shoulder. I don’t know if he’ll be able to get there.

5. Line of David – We all know where this one is going to be out of the gate. Once they let him take the bit and run he’s 3 for 3 with his key win being the turf to dirt triumph in the Arkansas Derby.

6. Stately Victor – Great name but two attempts on dirt were less than inspiring. Won the Bluegrass easily, but was not the deepest Derby prep race either.

7. American Lion – Talk about your weak fields, it’s hard to imagine that the Illinois Derby winner is going to be able to really tackle this group, though if he can rate rather than trying the lead, he could end up surprising at a price.

8. Dean’s Kitten – The Lane’s End winner has been on the steady improve the last few months getting better with each effort. His PPs scream turf specialist, but has been working well over the main track.

9. Make Music for Me - He’s been coming into his own lately after an 0-fer 2 year old campaign which saw him compete in only 1 maiden race. Still eligible for a non-winners of 2 allowance. This would be a huge surprise.

10. Paddy O’Prado – Had some nice efforts recently, but again, only over turf/synthetic. Turned in a bullet work over a sloppy Churchill track which is what he is likely to see tomorrow as well.

11. Devil May Care – One of only three in the field to earn a triple digit Beyer (100), the filly will need to prove that the 100 earned in the Bonnie Miss was no fluke since it was a huge jump when compared to her past efforts.

12. Conveyance – Another sexy choice, but I just don’t see this one carrying his speed a mile and a quarter. If anything, he will join the fray up front and make it that much harder for any of the frontrunners to win this one.

13. Jackson Bend – Lucky number 13. He’s 3 for 3 in the bridemaid category this season so far with two of those losses coming at the hands of my initial choice, ESKENDEREYA. His style looks to suite the shape of this race, but he may be a notch below the best in here.

14. Mission Impazible – It may very well be just that for the Louisiana Derby winner. However, he seems to be improving with each race and each increase in distance. He’s proven to run well in the slop and could be sitting in a nice position behind the speed to make a difference in the end.

15. Discreetly Mine – Was a beaten favorite in the slop in the Spectacular Bid, but had other troubles in there as well. It doesn’t appear that he’ll be able to rate off the hot early pace and that could spell big trouble for the Mineshaft colt.

16. Awesome Act – Followed up a great win in the Gotham with a troubled trip in the Wood, though he still was nearly able to hold off Jackson Bend for second. Hard to tell if the wide trip or the extra distance tripped him up.

17. Dublin – Though close in some difficult preps, this one hasn’t won since the Hopeful last season. After being beaten by as many as 5 of these, it’s hard to imagine that he will get just that much better this time out.

18. Backtalk – Does not even have a Beyer over 90. I know I said after last year that I would never say never again…but - not a snowball’s chance in hell.

19. Homeboykris – Another without a 90+ Beyer. Couldn’t even win an allowance last out which was back in February. Would be a miracle.

20. Sidney’s Candy – An alert break would make all the difference for this one. With two non-descript horses on the inside of him and no early speed until you get to the 15 spot, Talamo may get a break and into the mix early, like the horse wants, without as much early exertion as you would think coming out of the 20 hole. In 2010 he has been a machine going three for three, though some would say Lookin at Lucky’s trip could have only made that 2 for 3.

So that’s the field. Where do I see the race going? It’s tough to say because we know that there is virtually no chance of the track being fast come race time given the forecast of heavy rain through Friday and Saturday in Louisville. Super Saver is the only one of the contenders that has had a win in the slop, but that’s not saying much because most of the rest have only run on fast tracks.

Several of our contenders also are coming into this race only running on synthetic/turf – more than I feel I’ve ever seen coming into a Kentucky Derby. I’m not sold on the horses prepping over synthetic and then coming into the Derby. Pioneerof the Nile had a nice run last year, but still wasn’t the winner. I also think he was exceptional and I don’t know if any of these contenders come across as exceptional.

There will be speed to burn up front and there will be a few trying to close from the back. I think the ideal spot is going to be behind that burning speed as trying to close over what promises to be a sloppy track is going to be next to impossible. Here is how I see the finish:

1. Mission Impazible
2. Lookin at Lucky
3. Awesome Act
4. Ice Box

My apologies to Twin Creeks Racing Stable and Todd Pletcher.

Weekend Wrap: Tabby Wins & More!

Tabby Lane (Even the Score - Keeley Chay - Rodeo) scored her first time out for the 1st 2010 Claiming Group yesterday at Tampa Bay Downs. She was the co-second choice in the betting and ran like a champ. She broke well and jockey Dean Butler kept her off a steady pace until entering the top of the lane when she angled outward, had a clear run at the leaders and just went on. As you can see above, Dean had put the whip away before the wire. Track announcer Richard Grunder called her "much the best" as she cruised to the 3 1/4 length victory in the Allowance/$16,000 Optional Claiming race.

The e-mails among the group were flying not long after the official sign went up. As exciting as it was to win, it was almost more exciting to see the excitement of the first time owners in our group. I wish I could say that it's always this easy - claim a horse, push her up in class, nail a win, next! But as any of us that watch or are involved in this game know, it's not that easy and we need to enjoy the moment and try to move forward with an objective eye. She'll move up next as we try and find her ceiling. It should be an interesting ride!

The win was a thrill, as all wins are, but it was made a bit more special because of it occurring with a full field of competitive horses including several that had been very competitive at higher levels. It really starts the dream process flowing. That said, I know how important it is to stay in check as any and every plan can change in a moment. For the next few days, though, I'm going to enjoy the win and not think of her future, only her now.

Zenyatta Wins; Rachel Loses

In the surprise of the day, Rachel Alexandra lost in her debut seemingly running out of gas in the stretch while battling the John Sherriffs trained Zardana in Louisiana. This certainly isn't the death knell for Rachel's career and one race does not a season make, but while you can point to Zardana being three for three on the dirt in Brazil, Rachel really should have whipped this field. I guess if you take her average Beyer and only give her 80% of it (that's about how close to 100% Steve Asmussen said she was, I believe), she's right in with the others - if she was truly at 80%. Certainly Borel didn't have her all out to try and win the race. He had her wrapped up pretty tight for most of the race and who knows how much energy that took out of her, but still...

Zenyatta made no bones about how great a mare she is by weaving her way through the stretch to capture the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita. A Tweet I saw last night, and I couldn't find it again this morning to attribute, basically wondered aloud if Mike Smith is gong to get her beat someday. I laughed a bit because I was thinking the same thing. But since she runs - and wins - every race is the same way, if she finally losses can you blame it on the jockey? I always think that I'd prefer to see her mid-pack to give herself less opportunity to get blocked, but she always manages to find the wire. If you recall, that was one of my strikes against picking her in the Classic last Fall. She always overcomes and always perseveres, if she doesn't once, does that then become Mike Smith's fault?

Derby Picture Any Clearer?

Not in my mind. I thought that by the time we got to this point on the Kentucky Derby trail we'd have a standout or two that really looked like they'd be the favorite at post time. The wins of Sidney's Candy, Odysseus and Lookin At Lucky didn't do much to cement them in favoritism for the Derby. The performances by Odysseus and Lookin At Lucky, especially, were thrilling to watch, but they didn't dominate their competition. You certainly can say that there cannot be any questions about Lookin At Lucky's dirt ability and it's hard not to love Odysseus's stunning performance in the Tampa Bay, but I don't think either taps them as the clear cut Derby favorite.

That begs the question: Are this year's contenders evenly matched or just not that impressive?