Taking Stock of the Breeders' Cup - Wagering

Breeders’ Cup weekend is always interesting.  You can count on upsets and a stirring performance or two.  It also kicks off the beginning of racing’s ‘hot stove’ season when we start talking about the next year’s Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown series, but more about that later in the week.  This is all about assessing the selections for BC11.  Below are my notes from the two days.  I thought about distilling it down and/or polishing it a bit, but there is some charm to the unvarnished notes.

It’s always interesting how the mood can swing through the ups and downs of handicapping.  You can’t win ‘em all and you can’t bet them all and you can’t let your emotions get the best of you.  You pick your spots and try to score, however when you write a blog, or publicly handicap, you have to have an opinion on everything so you pick them all and hope you do well.  For the two day card, I was abysmal.  For the races I actually wagered, I was excellent. Ultimately when you wager it’s about making money and I was fortunate that my poor overall percentage didn’t translate into a money losing weekend, mostly due to the trifecta and exacta in the Juvenile on Saturday.

Here is the recap.

DAY 1

Juvenile Sprint – Not a tough pick and not a particularly profitable one, but a win is a win and Secret Circle felt like a gimme and ran like he was one.  Batting 1.000 so far for the Breeders’ Cup!

Juvenile Fillies Turf – I like Stephanie’s Kitten a lot and when my mom mentioned that we should bet on her because my beloved little sister’s name is Stephanie, the world of handicapping and hunching collided.  She ran like a champion, claimed the led in the lane and went on to victory at 6-1.  LOVE 6-1s.  Still batting 1.000.  This game is easy!

Filly & Mare Sprint – I was taking a stand against favored Turbulent Descent and was spot on.  The only problem was my choice, Switch, started the race a bit too far back and could only close as far as second.  Still, if you bet her across the board you still won money.  Interestingly, my throw in horse for third, Musical Romance, turned out to be the 20-1 winner!  2 for 3 with a second, making money in every race.  Does it get any better?

Juvenile Fillies – Again I tried to take a stand against the favorite and this time I wasn’t nearly as successful.  My Miss Aurelia ran like the favorite and did a nice job.  I said that “if she can rate, she could be deadly”.  She did and she was.  My second choice ran second but my top choice, Northern Passion, finished up the track.  2 for 4.  .500 still isn’t bad.

Filly & Mare Turf – 27-1 Perfect Shirl wins and there was no way on God’s green Earth I would have had her.  My choice, favored Stacelita, gets shellacked and finishes second to last.  2 for 5 and the percentages are not looking near as good.  One race left and I’m going heavy on Royal Delta.

Filly & Mare Classic – Co favorite and my top choice Royal Delta sat off the pace, ran when asked and drew off to an easy victory.  She was 2-1, but I’ll take 2-1 all day long.  

Finishing stats for Day 1: 6 races, 3 wins and 1 second with a positive ROI on the day.  Makes me feel pretty good going into Day 2.

DAY 2

Marathon – My choice, Cease, was in a great spot all the way around and charged to the lead heading through the final turn.  And then it was over…he faded and 41-1 Afleet Again took the kickoff race.  I look back over the PPs and I STILL can’t find a reason to bet Afleet Again.  Race one – off the board.

Juvenile Turf – Finale was finished from jump.  He got off a bit slowly and rather than take back a bit and fall in behind the top 3 sprinters, it appeared as if Velasquez was indecisive on whether to tuck in or go.  By the time he decided to take back he was already five wide for nearly half the race and it was all over but the shouting as Finale predictably faded down the stretch.  Two races, two off the board finishes.

Sprint – Big Drama got away four wide and stayed there.  It looked as if jockey Ramon Dominguez thought better and tried to hold him a bit and track the top 3 but all it did was kill any chances he had of winning the race.  Three races in the books and top choice off the board in each.  Fortunately I do have Amazombie in the Pick 3.

Turf Sprint – I hate five furlong turf races but it turns out that it got me my first win of the day.  Regally Ransom was in good position throughout and when the time came he kicked on and was able to hold on for the win.  It wasn’t a big price win but a win nonetheless.

Dirt Mile – And we regress back again to a top choice fading out of contention when the real running started.  Prior to the race it was reported on ESPN that Steve Assmussen had real concerns about the stickiness of the track and Wilburn’s ability to handle it.  Turns out he was right.  In excellent position throughout, when it was time to run, Wilburn went the wrong way.  One for five today with only four left.

Turf – In the immortal words of Steven Tyler, “same old story, same old song and dance, my friend”.  Await the Dawn set the pace and showed that his Arc mess was exactly where he is right now.  Second choice Sea Moon, and my wager at post time, was able to stay up for second and made a bit of money, but the only choice that matters is the public one, and it was a dog.  Insult to injury: had all Euro tris and supers and Brilliant Speed blows up those wagers as well.  Stay tuned for Union Rags, Gio Ponti and Havre de Grace to spit the bit in the lane as well.  I hate days like this one.  Six in the books and only one winner.

Juvenile – Box it and we got the exacta and trifecta but the straight up win was disrupted by Javier Castallano being kept with Union Rags four to five wide throughout the entire race.  Otherwise, this race shaped up exactly like I had thought.  Creative Cause finishes third.  Cashed plenty in this race and that matters.  Batting average is not helped at all, though, and officially the count is 1 for 7 with a second and two races to go.  ROI, thanks to the $46 exacta and over $200 tri is excellent.

Mile – In a very messy stretch run, Goldikova failed in her attempt to win four in a row.  The winner was 64-1 Court Vision.  Unlike some other boxcar winners, I can see this one.  After some time off he closed like a freight train in his last and was eligible to improve.  He was beaten last out by the second place horse, Turallure, so if you liked one, you may have had them both with Turallure at 30-1.  THAT was a helluva exacta (over $2,000 for $2)!  Goldikova had some issues in the stretch and probably should have been disqualified but she got the superstar call (think smaller strike zone for superstar hitters or Peyton Manning getting more roughing the passer calls) and stayed up for third.  I don’t blame them for making the non-call.  It was close enough to let it go, though with my money across the board on Gio Ponti and the two big longshots finishing 1-2, I probably would have got my money back on the show price as he finished fourth and stood to get moved up.  After all the drama, another off the board finish and the tally is 1 for 8 with a second.  Ugh.  On to the Classic.

Classic –  The buildup was all about Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace which I thought was silly since there was no way that Uncle Mo was going to get a mile and a quarter.  I did think that filly was something special, but when the lights were on and pressure cranked up she was as flat as a pancake.  She was in good position all the way around and was simply flat.  Mo was engaged early for about a mile, but when the real running began he went the wrong way.  The really impressive performance came from Game on Dude who shot to the front and only relinquished the lead in the final strides to Drosselmeyer.  Drosselmeyer and Court Vision are both Breeders’ Cup champions…go figure.  And the nightmare of a day concludes with only one winner in 9 races but thankfully the exotics in the Juvenile prevent the day from being an ROI disaster but I barely keep earnings positive – but at least it was positive.

DAY 1 – 6 races: 3 wins, 1 second

DAY 2 – 9 races: 1 win; 1 second

TOTAL: 15 races: 4 wins, 2 seconds.  26% win with 40 in the money.  Not great but the ROI with the exotic wagers was pretty good at a plus 27% of dollars wagered (every $100 wagered returned $127). Again, pick your spots and hammer it when you feel confident.  Don’t be afraid to pass – there is always another race!

I’m going to let the dust settle for a few days and then be back later in the week with some observations from the 2011 Breeders’ Cup.

Championship Saturday

With a good day one in the books (6 races – 3-1-0; more detailed analysis tomorrow)) attention focuses to day two of the Breeder’s Cup and an orgy of handicapping and racing.  Nice championship races are on the docket today culminating with the showdown between Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace in the Classic, though that is far more than a match race.

My first plan was to head down to Canterbury Park to watch the races there with the outstanding staff and fans, but I am exhausted from driving 22-hours over the past 2-days and will instead be fixated to the television coverage of the event.  The thought of driving another 40 minutes today is simply too daunting!

Best of luck everyone!

Marathon

The day kicks off with the Marathon.  With a purse of only $500,000 is it any wonder that we breed for speed and not stamina?  No one particularly stands out to me in this one so it may be worth taking a stab at a longer shot here.  Could be a nice paying trifecta to start the day.

1.       Cease – In a field where there is no standout, I like this one.  He may have made a premature move in last but dig in and was game throughout.  This is a big step, but none of the others are come in on fire.  I’ll take a stab here.

2.       Birdrun – After a 2 ½ month break perhaps a flat last race was to be expected.  Brooklyn winner may have needed his last and could step up here.

3.       Brigantin – Euro will get the distance; in fact, he’s been running much longer, but questions abound on handling the dirt.

Juvenile Turf

These lightly raced two year olds always can bring a surprising jump up or regression next out which makes them so much fun to handicap.  Trying to predict who may do what as they grow and stretch out is art as much as science.

1.       Finale – Undefeated since moving to the turf his last is a bit deceptive.  While he was all out to win it at the end, he had recovered from a bad start and was hustled to contention.  Still won pulling away.

2.       Shkspeare Shaliyah – Hasn’t had a bad effort yet and stepped up to graded stakes company from his maiden win without batting an eye.

3.       Coalport – mile and a sixteenth may have been a bit much, but seems to love the distance.

Sprint

After going a bit deeper to find some value in the first two races, I’m seduced by the chalk in the Sprint.

1.       Big Drama – Defending champ has been used judiciously this season and to good effect going to 2 for 2 with a “dramatic” 120 Beyer 2 back.  Was merely out for exercise in his last while cruising to a win.

2.       Jackson Bend – I’m not thrilled with the cutback to 6 furlongs, but he has been way too good to ignore and does have speed.

3.       Amazombie – Californian is venturing out for the first time in his career but has been very sharp at home and especially over the Santa Anita dirt.

Turf Sprint

Would have loved to have seen the King Leatherbury trained Ben's Cat in here, but that was not to be.  A full field of 14 should make for an interesting 5 furlongs over the Churchill lawn and I’m sure that California Flag will figure out a way to make this race a nightmare for me just like the last three years!

1.       Regally Ready – love the way he has been improving since the layoff.  Gelding seems to be peaking at just the right time.

2.       California Flag – I thought he might have been done after that poor effort in July, but had an excuse in his comeback race and scored nicely in the Grade 3 Morvich.  I’m sure he’ll find a way to punish me again in the BC!

3.       Hoofit – I like the way that this horse has behaved since arriving in the US and I always pay attention when a horse in good form is supplemented to a big race.  That’s a lot of dough to hand over if you don’t think your horse can win.

Dirt Mile

I like to call this race the “Classic Was Too Tough So We Went to the Mile” race.  It is quite the field and should be a fun one to watch unfold.

1.       Wilburn – won 3 in a row starting with a $35K Optional Claiming, then a small stakes and then beating several in here in the Gr 2 Indiana Derby while earning a career best Beyer.  There is enough speed in the race for him to chase and will be a bear in the lane.

2.       Shakleford – I think this may be his best distance and could certainly win it all.

3.       Trappe Shot – Will love the added distance.  If the stamina is there could close last to win it all.

Turf

Will the Euros keep dominating this race?  Yeah…probably…  I have a soft spot for Brilliant Speed, the 3-year old I saw during some time off at gorgeous Live Oak Plantation but I don’t think he has enough to take this group here.  Interestingly we’ve got fillies in here, a bunch of Euros who all rate highly and some Americans hoping for the best.  I willingly admit this is a race that I’ll watch and not wager since I’ve had little luck betting the invaders in these type of races over the years.

1.       Await the Dawn – I’ll throw out the Arc and go with prior form which has been excellent.

2.       Sarafina – Filly has been very impressive

3.       Sea Moon – May wager on this one to win for some value.  Rough trip in last and will need to fire his best against older for the first time, but certainly possible.

Juvenile

The home race of the winter book favorite for the Derby, though most probably NOT the next Derby winner.

1.       Union Rags – Given his performances and Beyer it’s hard to bet against him.  I think if you get 2-1 that it shows on the ML it’ll be a gift.

2.       Hansen – Sure he hasn’t run against great, but he’s absolutely destroyed those he has faced.  Also could get loose on the lead and that could be trouble for the favorite.

3.       Creative Cause – Has done little wrong and already chalked up two graded stakes wins including the Grade 1 Norfolk last out.

Mile

GOLDIKOVA!  She’s looking for a four-peat in here and, if she does it, will set a mark that is unlikely to be broken for a long time for consecutive BC victories.  Additionally my soft spot for claimers is being poked in here by Compliance Officer, claimed for $25,000 earlier in the year and now shows up in the BC.  I think both can be beaten, however, though I’ll be rooting for Goldi no matter who the choice is.

1.       Gio Ponti – This is the year he finally gets his BC victory after losses to both super mares, Zenyatta and Goldikova.  Comes into the race well and ready to roll.  He shouldn’t be as far back this year and Goldi may be a bit vulnerable as opposed to past years.  And in the end everyone can say, "Well, if Goldi couldn't do it, I'm glad Gio Ponti won!"

2.       Goldikova – She may be vulnerable but she is very impressive and if she doesn’t win will surely get a piece.

3.       Strong Suit – Has been excellent in Europe and maybe just a step below these right now as a 3-year old, but we could be watching next year’s winner.

Classic

We can talk all we want about the last few years not producing any male superhorses and the domination of the two super-mares, but this race is a roll call of any horse that has done anything in the last couple of years.  Suburban and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, Flat Out; 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer; 2011 Belmont winner Ruler on Ice; 2010 Kentucky Derby runner up, Ice Box; Santa Anita Handicap winner, Game on Dude; Jim Dandy and Travers winner Stay Thirsty; phenomenal filly Havre de Grace; Hollywood Gold Cup winner, Headache; 2-year old champion Uncle Mo; and European invader, the well-traveled and winner of over $2 million this year So You Think, are all involved in this event. 

I can’t remember when the event boasted so many champions though this may have more to do with the fact that there has not been a single real standout this past season and everyone feels they have a shot.

1.       Havre de Grace – Hard to ignore that she spanked the trendy choice, Flat Out, two back and came within a nose of being undefeated this year.  The fact that she has finished second twice at a mile and a quarter is my only concern here.

2.       Flat Out – Been working up a storm and the distance is certain to not be an issue.  The one post might be, but barring issues at the start, he should be there at the end.

3.       To Honor and Serve – Of the three year olds in this race, he’s the one I like the most.  Uncle Mo may have distance limitations while Stay Thirsty may have peaked while To Honor and Serve seems to keep getting better.

Reverse the Curse!! The 2011 Kentucky Derby (presented by YUM brands)

I’ve been looking at the Derby past performances way too long. That’s what happens when you have a 20+ year losing streak going on – you press.  You try and find something that you missed.  The entire world calls it a wide open affair so you spend time hunting for value, that missing piece that pulls the contender off the page at you.  I went cross-eyed this year trying to end my string of futility.  What it finally came down to was stop looking so damn hard and lay your money on the best horse.  You can’t handicap racing luck so it’s the best you can do.

Here is the rundown:

1.       Archarcharch (Fires/Court): The Rebel made me think that the he possibly couldn’t get the distance.  The Arkansas Derby just showed that he wasn’t ready to.  The rail is not to his advantage, but has had its share of winners in the past (See Ferdinand).  As always, the concern for a deep closer is having to navigate the field.

2.       Brilliant Speed (Albertrani/Rosario): A personal favorite of mine thanks to our wonderful trip to Live Oak for the TOBA Pedigree & Conformation Clinic.  A nice horse, but one that probably prefers the grass or synthetic.

3.       Twice the Appeal (Bonde/Borel): You can never count Borel out of a Derby, but it is very unlikely that this horse, twice removed from $30,000 Maiden Claiming company, is going to be able to compete with these.  The horse was taking a lot of money yesterday and is being WAY overbet for its ability which is helping to create value elsewhere.

4.       Stay Thirsty (Pletcher/Dominguez): The OTHER Repole horse that’s still in the race.  Which horse shows for the Derby? Is it the hard charging winner of the Gotham or the trounced, up the track finisher of the Florida Derby?  My guess is going to be Florida Derby.

5.       Decisive Moment (Arias/Clark): Not a chance.

6.       Comma to the Top (Miller/Valenzuala):  Near the top of everyone’s list in January, the colt still has yet to win in 2011.  Showed some life in the Santa Anita Derby but still faded at the end.  Probably should cut back in distance where he can still do so damage.

7.       Pants on Fire (Breen/Napravnik):  Along with Nehro, this is a horse that you hear the ‘wise guys’ talking about.  Everyone loves the Rosie Napravnik storyline as well.  Sharp winner of the Louisiana Derby where he turned the tables on Mucho Macho Man while showing a lot of determination.  May need to try and wire the field and that’ll be no easy task.

8.       Dialed In (Zito/Leparoux): Morning line favorite with a good draw, overdue jock and a trainer that can get them to the winner’s circle, the horse was sharp all season.  I know losing in a $60,000 optional claiming race isn’t ideal, but the colt was sent out for his first try over turn turns AND was against older horses in early March.  Winner finished third in the Alysheba yesterday over many that were in this gate for this race in previous years, losing by less than a half.  If the foundation is there, should be very tough.

9.       Derby Kitten (Maker/Castellano): Only off the turf/synthetic effort resulted in a 27 length drubbing.

10.   Twinspired (Maker/Smith): Could say the same for this as I did for Derby Kitten, though the dirt loss wasn’t as bad/

11.   Master of Hounds (O’Brien/Gomez): A long way to come for a start, this overseas shipper hasn’t seen as much as a single public work over dirt and has only broken his maiden thusfar.  Coming off an excellent effort in the UAE Derby in his only effort of 2011 against older horses on the synthetic.  Hard to tell where the form is at, but can’t believe O’Brien comes all this way to be an also ran.

12.   Santiva (Kenneally/Bridgmohan): Last prep over a synthetic strip in the Blue Grass was less than impressive and certainly prefers the dirt. May be a cut below these.

13.   Mucho Macho Man (Ritvo/Maragh): “Sponsored” by Minnesota’s 3M and trained by a feel good story in and of herself, the colt has hit board in every start but one in his career.  Tired after a wide trip in the Louisiana Derby, there are still real distance concerns with this one.

14.   Shackleford (Romans/Castanon):  Have to love the name.  Colt bounced badly in the Fountain of Youth but came back strong in the Florida Derby.  Been working superbly up to this race but I have concerns about his ability to get the mile and a quarter.

15.   Midnight Interlude (Baffert/Espinoza): Another that has been working very well leading into this race.  May prefer the front end or track the speed and that’s going to be more difficult to do from the 15 spot.  While I don’t think his Santa Anita Derby win is as ‘bad’ as folks have said, I don’t think he’ll be fast enough to get to the spot he wants to be in today.

16.   Animal Kingdom (Motion/Albarado Velazquez):  First start over the dirt.  The one work has been solid and a colt that has impressed everyone he’s come in contact with so far in Louisville.  Had a great win in the Spiral and the distance should not be a concern.  Will certainly be a factor if he handles the surface.

17.   Soldat (McLaughlin/Garcia): Threw in a real dud in the Florida Derby after two impressive victories going to the front.  If he needs the front to win, he can’t win this one.

18.   Uncle Mo (Pletcher/Velazquez): SCRATCHED

19.   Nehro (Asmussen/Nakatani): Much talked about horse and another ‘wise guy’ pick.  The two seconds at a mile and an eighth make you think another eighth and he would have got there.  I’ve been burned by that enough in my time to take a pass this time.

20.   Watch Me Go (O’Connell/Bejarano): Huge upset winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, showed distance issues in the Illinois Derby and probably should have stayed home.

So there you have the field.  With all the talk of this being such a wide open field and anyone’s race, I’ve dialed it down, went back to basics and will simply pick who I feel is the best horse with the best chance.  Isn’t that what ends up happened when all is said and done?  The race is run and you say, “I guess it really wasn’t that wide open after all?”

1.       Dialed In
2.       Archarcharch
3.       Master of Hounds
4.       Pants on Fire

There it is in black and white.  Run, don’t walk, away from Dialed In if you believe in my curse, but this is my fearsome foursome and I’m leaning on Dialed In to get me my first Derby win.

Big Thanks From a Small Time Guy

We haven't had a stakes winner yet and our stable has only been as large as three horses (though we're working on that!) but there is still a lot to be thankful for in 2010 - big picture and our our own window:

- Thanks to our partners. Without you we wouldn't be racing at all. Some of you have had a great ride, others not so great but almost down to a person (I'm NOT thankful for the one guy that stiffed us) you all understood the ups and downs of this business. We'll get you your winner!

- Thanks to Bernell & Cindy Rhone, Dean & Leann Butler and Christine Riddle. Our horses could not be entrusted to better people. It's one thing to be good horse people, that's hard enough, to be the the quality of people that you are - that's something special.

- Thanks to Tabby Lane & One For Zetta. Without horses, nothing is possible. Tabby started the season off with a bang and finished with some rest while Zetta never made it to the racetrack. Tabby taught us to stop making plans more than one race at a time while Zetta taught us patience and having the strength to do the right thing. Love you ladies!

- Thanks to all the unsung barn help - the grooms, exercise riders and others on the backside who go nameless and sometimes even faceless but whose love for the horse and dedication to being there every day makes our world run.

- To all the vets that keep our horses healthy and try and put them back together again, I thank you.

- Zenyatta. Thanks to a wonderful race mare who came back one last time but fell short only to further illuminate her greatness. She may be a once in a half century horse and I'm glad I saw her.

- Uncle Mo. For a crushing Breeder's Cup win, but more for continuing to stoke the winter fires with the can he/can't he Derby talk.

- Randy Sampson, Jeff Maday, Paul Alen, Kevin Gorg and all the folks that make Canterbury Park tick. Find me a racetrack where there is more fun, excitement and management interaction with the fans than at Canterbury Park and I won't believe you. Great job folks and thanks for the 62 dates next year. Good luck with the legislature!

- Special thanks to Jeff Maday and his staff in the press box for allowing me to blog there on big days and making me feel welcome.

- Brenda Rick, Leslie Morley, Darla Jefferies, Karin Wagner and folks all over the country who strive to protect, retrain and mend our retired racehorses. The job is too big for everyone involved - I hope the job gets smaller over time. Thanks for all you do.

- And to all my friends in racing: thanks again for sharing your thoughts, insights, hopes, dreams, wins and losses with me. That includes the bloggers on the left but also all of the folks whom I've met along the way that are now close to me in this world.

Have a safe, healthy and happy Thanksgiving everyone! And thank YOU for reading!

Breeder's Cup Day Two - In the Books

The day didn’t start much better than yesterday and, for some, ended in extreme heartbreak. Let’s recap.

Betting overview

Six Races (one choice was a late scratch)
Two wins

That's it! Go big or go home. I like to think of myself as picking winners at a 33% rate rather than failing miserably!! Thankfully I did have the exacta in the Classic keying Zenyatta under my choice (Haynesfield) and Blame. Helped save the day.

Juvenile Turf

Apparently we couldn’t start the day without SOME kind of drama. In the 1st Cup race of the day, Rosie Napravnik’s mount, the aptly named Rough Sailing, slid heading into the first turn dumping Rosie and taking him out of the race. Horse and rider bounced right up, but Rough Sailing was vanned off. Reportedly he had some swelling in the right front and was taken back to the barn for a radiograph where it was discovered he fractured his shoulder in the fall. He was later euthanized. A terrible start to Breeder’s Cup Day Two.

As far as the racing goes, underdog Pluck, in a rerun of the Summer Stakes, tracked the pace and, again, “swept by furlong out” in what looked like a really easy win. Soldat and Willcox Inn rounded out the tri. I ignored the home team at my own peril with my choice, European Master of Hounds, well placed heading into the stretch had no real run through the lane finishing 6th.

Pluck
Soldat
Willcox Inn

Sprint

No drama with Big Drama. As I mentioned in the show and in the preview, Big Drama could have been four for four in 2010 with better starts in his last two. A clean start and a rough one from the other speed in the race, Pashito the Che, all added up to a wire to wire win in the Sprint. Long shot Hamazing Destiny, who prepped for this race in a $65,000 Optional Claiming race, was up for place while Synthetic specialist Smiling Tiger finished third.

Once again the equine ambulance was out as Atta Boy Roy pulled up after the finish line. Calvin Borel bolted off the horse and got the ambulance over in a hurry where he was vanned off for radiographs. Early indications were a suspensory ligament issue but turned out to be just a superficial cut. Thank goodness, we could not handle two breakdowns in a row on national television.

Big Drama (Choice)
Hamazing Destiny
Smiling Tiger

Turf Sprint

Thankfully there were no incidents in the running of the Turf Sprint. There was also no win for me, either. Favored Silver Timber (my choice) was well placed but had no oomph at all in the lane finishing out of the money. Chamberlain Bridge was much the best as he was placed well and made a very strong move in the stretch to take all the marbles. My second choice, Center City, was second best while the filly, Unzip Me, finished third.

After this race we were to be switched to ESPN. However the Breeder’s Cup coverage was in limbo for a while waiting for the fabulous OT battle between crappy has-been Michigan and never-was Illinois to be decided. Great day for racing. Thankfully we all got to see Michigan rise to 2-3 in the Big 10.

Chamberlain Bridge
Center City
Unzip Me

Juvenile

Let the Derby hype begin! An absolute ass-kicking by Uncle Mo. I had said it was his to lose and it was all Uncle Mo at Churchill today. Johnny Velasquez confidently rode him the entire way looking very much like he knew he had it from the break. It wasn’t s huge exacta, but I’ll take it as Boys at Tuscanova finished second with pacesetter Rogue Romance holding on for 3rd. The question, as asked by the ESPN staff, is can the Indian Charlie colt get a mile and a quarter. Until then, wow, what a performance.

Uncle Mo (Choice)
Boys at Tuscanova
Rogue Romance

Mile

The Goldikova Breeder’s Cup Mile. Fabulous race by a fabulous mare. She was sitting sixth heading into the stretch and then Goldikova exploded through the stretch to draw off to an easy win. My choice, Sidney’s Candy, led most of the way around but faded in deep stretch to finish out of the money. He just couldn’t ration his speed throughout the race and had nothing left in the tank. Goldikova's jockey Olivier Plesier was asked if he was concerned at any point in the race and matter-of-factly said no, which was obvious by the confident way he rode her. Hats off to a wonderful champion. Gotta feel for Gio Ponti, meeting once in a lifetime mares two years in a row. Helluva job all the way around.

Goldikova
Gio Ponti
The Usual Q.T.

Dirt Mile

The closest finish of the weekend and 36-1 shot Dakota Phone prevails over Morning Line with old warrior Gayego picking up the third. Favorite and my choice Here Comes Ben was well positioned throughout and just had nothing in the tank in the stretch. I never saw this one coming, but then judging by the payouts, no one else did either!

Sad footnote: Mine That Bird finishes 10th and will be thankfully retired. Reaching around to pat myself on the back, here is a quote from my day after the Derby blog:

“It's my opinion that other than going back to Sunland and winning some local stakes races, Mine That Bird will not take the racing world by storm.”

Obviously I was wrong – he didn’t even do that!

Dakota Phone (36-1!!)
Morning Line
Gayego

Turf

I hardly know how to break this one down. I’d like to think that I didn’t care much about this one because Workforce (my choice) scratched and it was the race before the Classic. The pace was boring, the stretch run was less than stirring, all the talking heads were all over Behkabad and he was a major disappointment. He could not have asked for a better trip and he was less than impressive. Let’s just leave it at that and move on.

Dangerous Midge
Champ Pegasus
Behkabad

Classic

She didn’t do it. Maybe with a better break. Maybe if Mike Smith had hustled her a bit more. Maybe if Blame weakened just a bit in the stretch. A lot of maybes in this one, but of one thing there is no maybe: Blame is one tough racehorse. He took the lead and never relinquished it, even when the big mare was eating into his lead. When Zenyatta came up to his sights, he dug down for more and would not let he pass. As an aside, my choice, Haynesfield, ran with the lead pack and folded. Thankfully I had a boxed exacta including Blame and Zenyatta to save me a couple of shekels.

Blame
Zenyatta
Fly Down

More on the Horse of the Year debate later.

Obligatory Breeder's Cup Post - Day 2 (Can Zenyatta Be Beat?)

Day Two is upon us, or as it’s known on the West Coast, Zenyatta’s Coronation!

For a more detailed analysis of each race, just click on the player to the left and listen to the Blog Talk Radio show.

Juvenile Turf

Master of Hounds – Best of a weak bunch.
Utley – Second best Euro in the field.
Mantoba – Yes, the Americans in here are that weak.

Sprint

Big Drama - Could be 4-0 in 2010 without starting issues.
Girolamo - Coming in off a huge win in the Vosburgh.
Riley Tucker - Right there behind Girolamo

Turf Sprint

Silver Timber – All angles seem to lead back to “but he was beaten by Silver Timber”.
Central City – Can certainly improve off of the first race back from the layoff and score here.
Quick Enough – Claimed twice in the last four months and now running in the BC. LOVE IT!

Juvenile

Uncle Mo – Wow. Hasn’t even breathed heavy to win yet. Very impressive 2 year old.
Boys at Tosconova – I like the dirt form, if he gets the distance, he’s right in here.
Jaycito – Don’t like the first time dirt, but this is a talented colt.

Mile

Sydney’s Candy – More of a value wager. Odds should be good and last shows that his true calling may be on turf.
Goldikova – Defending champ and best in the race. Given her prohibitively low odds, I’ll take a stab with another.
Gio Ponti – Won’t grab that elusive BC victory, but an outstanding horse non-the-less.

Turf

SCRATCHED! Workforce – Going for a Epsom, Arc and BC trifecta. Very impressive.
Behkabad – Impeded a bit in the Arc, though I don’t think as talented as the top choice. Should be favorite with top choice now out.
Dangerous Midge – Euro sweep.

Dirt Mile

Here Comes Ben – Since moving to the dirt is 3-0 and 100+ Beyers. Found his calling.
Tizway – Probably too much other early speed to last, but better than the rest.
Gayego – deep closer could move up to second with enough of a pace.

Classic

Haynesfield – Like Sydney’s Candy, this is a value wager, trying to beat an overlay. If Zenyatta gets over even money, the play goes there.
Zenyatta – Could be the best ever. Deep field + real dirt = her only opportunity to be beaten.
Blame – Will be prominent early, but will wear down late.

Good luck everyone!