Rood & Riddle Press Release via Richard Eng

This is the content of  PR issued by Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital and featuring Dr. Larry Bramlage, one of the most respected equine practitioners in the world.  This was received by Richard Eng, racing columnist for the Las Vegas Review Journal and originally posted via his Facebook page.

It speaks for itself.

Reports on Racehorse Injury Rates, Medications Misleading


July 13, 2012 – Lexington, KY - Earlier this week, the horse racing industry encountered further criticism when an article by the New York Times (found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/sports/ill-have-another-had-history-of-ailments-records-show.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) alleged that drastic treatments were being given to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another leading up to this year’s Belmont Stakes. The colt was withdrawn from the Belmont, ending his bid for the Triple Crown, when trainer Doug O’Neill reported he began experiencing tendonitis, or tendon swelling, in his left front leg.

The Times alleges that “powerful painkillers” were given to the horse, and that x-rays taken of the colt’s joints prior to his withdrawal indicate a much more severe problem. The author also alleges that the practice of running horses with high doses of drugs to overcome painful injuries is common practice in Thoroughbred racing.

As a member of the Jockey Club, and past president of the American Association of Equine Practitioners and the American College of Veterinary Surgeons, renowned Thoroughbred health expert Dr. Larry Bramlage gave an interview to NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams in an attempt to more accurately inform the public about health and safety practices in racing. That video can be found here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/48155033#48155033. As the AAEP’s on-call veterinarian for Triple Crown races and chief orthopedic surgeon at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, Dr. Bramlage became concerned following the release of that segment that the public did not have all the facts regarding the issues presented by the Times and NBC.

“In my opinion, The New York Times piece published on July 11 titled ‘I’ll Have Another had history of ailments, records show’ was closer to tabloid journalism than in-depth reporting, as was the selective editing demonstrated on the July 11 edition of NBC’s Nightly News with Brian Williams.

In reality, statistics given by the Times that 24 horses break down each week on American racetracks was calculated based on a number of questionable assumptions including, the inclusion of “eased” designations and equine ambulance pick-ups after a race as indications of injury, a procedure that is often, in fact, precautionary. Our increased awareness of equine injuries has increased the number of times that we help the horse off the track, but those are not necessarily indications that the horse has had a serious problem. In fact, statistics indicate the number of Thoroughbred injuries has trended downward with the increased caution The misinterpretation of the medical terminology ‘osteoarthritis’, and the substitution of ‘major painkillers’ for anti-inflammatory medications is unfair to the uninformed general public. It’s useful only to sell newspapers, not to allow the public to understand what actually happened for the horse. The phenylbutazone given to I’ll Have Another is from the same drug group as aspirin and ibuprofen in humans, can’t be given to a horse within 24 hours of a race, and is tested for with blood and urine samples at all levels of the sport. Dexamethasone is a corticosteroid used as an anti-inflammatory as well.

There have been 11 horses that have won two of the three legs of the Triple Crown in the last 33 years. I would guess that almost all of those horses had x-rays after winning the second leg as a monitoring, precautionary measure. That’s routine veterinary care, and would be akin to the kind of examinations that human Olympic athletes who just qualified in the U.S. championships will undergo prior to competing in the Olympics at the end of July.

While veterinary ethics preclude us from speculating on I’ll Have Another’s case specifically as we were not the attending veterinarian, the records provided to New York State Racing and Wagering Board do not indicate anything inappropriate. No illegal, unprofessional, or medically unwarranted medication was given to this horse. We totally agree with the approach that Dr. Jim Hunt, attending veterinarian, took to get this horse ready for a possible Triple Crown run.”

Belmont, The Press, Tabby Lane and A Big Meeting

BELMONT and THE PRESS

Suffice to say that the weekend really didn’t go as anyone had planned.  It kicked off with I’ll Have Another scratching from the Belmont Stakes and that led to an odd chain of events that affected me personally.

I ended up, through a series of events and phone calls, on the local newsradio station here in the Twin Cities, WCCO, giving them a local “expert” opinion on the I’ll Have Another scratch.  That was followed by an appearance on Race Horse Radio with Paul Allen on KFAN later that evening.  We talked mainly about the Mystic Lake/Canterbury Agreement but I also threw in my ultimately misguided two cents on the new look of the Belmont Stakes. Not enough Ted exposure for you?  Well in that case if you caught KARE 11 at 10 on Sunday night, yours truly was on camera for a few moments discussing the future of MN racing.  All totaled, welcome to my 15 minutes.  Thank you Mr. Warhol!

My maiden attempt on WCCO was okay.  I was a bit too fast early, but settled into a decent rhythm.  The KFAN bit was better.  I actually felt a bit more comfortable in front of the camera to be honest, but I have to say, I truly loved the experiences and want to thank Chad Hartman from WCCO (and Kay King for referring them to me), Paul Allen from KFAN and also Jeff Maday for lining me up with Craig Norkus from KARE 11.  You can see the KARE 11 piece, featuring our trainer, Bernell Rhone, here.

As I mentioned, my take on the Belmont for KFAN was indeed misguided.  I really thought that Dullahan was the second best horse in that race behind I’ll Have Another and I was, obviously, mistaken.  Thankfully I wasn’t alone in that regard and, while misery loves company, the Belmont wasn’t a washout.  It was, in fact, a verycompelling race and day where, for the third Classic in a row, Mike Smith was aboard a front runner that couldn’t hold on until the wire.  I know some have criticized Smith for allowing Union Rags through on the rail, but tired horses drift and I can do nothing but commend Smith – for all three of his rides.

TABBY LANE

On Sunday, Tabby Lane stepped up in class and simply didn’t respond.  She may have been a bit too far off of slow fractions for the seven furlong race (:24; :48) but jockey Dean Butler, though a bit penned in through the turn, asked her when she had some room and she simply didn’t respond.  She was seventh, beaten only 3, but no one likes to finish seventh.  The truth could very well be that she was outclassed in that group. 

We’ll regroup and see what’s next with the new condition book.  If she’s feeling good, there is a $10,000 claiming event going a mile and sixteenth over the turf later in the month, but it’s too early to tell at this point.  What is clear is that her wheelhouse is right around that distance, surface and class level.  A six year old mare is going to be what she’s going to be at this point, so we’ll keep her around there and see what it brings us.

MYSTIC LAKE/CANTERBURY PARK

Tomorrow is the special meeting of the Minnesota Racing Commission to approve (or not) the agreement between Mystic Lake and Canterbury Park.  It appears that the folks at Running Aces Harness Park are going to try and get the deal squashed.  I’m not sure why, to be honest.  I’ve already stated my reasons why this is a good deal for Minnesota Thoroughbred racing in a previous post, so I won’t restate here, but some of the commentary I heard on the local PBS show Almanac from a Running Aces spokesperson, probably illustrates why they can’t get out of their own way. 

I feel for the harness horsemen, I really do.  They threw in with the casino lot to get a permanent racing facility built that probably would not have happened otherwise.  If they only knew how quickly ownership was ready to sell them down the river for racino, they would (or at least should) be appalled.  Well, “sell down the river” may be too strong a term, but they certainly wanted the majority of any racino funds to go to track ownership and NOT horsemen – diametrically opposed to Canterbury’s stance (which eventually won out in the never voted on racino bill).  Ultimately they are free to cut their own deal with the Band that would affect them most, the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe but if I were the horsemen, I wouldn’t hold my breath.  None of the Canterbury funds are going to track management so I can’t imagine that the Mille Lacs Band would be inclined to do so with Running Aces.  Besides, apparently the feeling there is that a deal like that may be illegal because if you make a deal like that with an Indian Nation you become a subsidiary of that Nation (according to the Running Aces spokesman).  That kind of sour grapes, selfish thinking and twisted logic is what is going to doom the harness horsemen in the state.  They deserve better.

It could prove to be an interesting meeting Wednesday at 1:30 PM at the Shakopee Fire Station. It could be standing room only so get there early and strap in…then again, there might not be any fireworks at all.

A Brief Look at the New Belmont Stakes

I literally just deleted three paragraphs of text on my plans for not betting on the Belmont Stakes tomorrow – at least not trying to beat I’ll Have Another but just placing a souvenir wager on him to take the Triple Crown.

Well THAT plan is at an end.

With I’ll Have Another’s scratch the day before his date with destiny, I had to actually open up The Form and take a look at some past performances.  Dullahan took the mantle as morning line favorite while others are looking toward the return of Union Rags or the emergence of Paynter.  I’ve gotten over most of my depression but I’m not sure that I see any value in here.  I had thought that Dullahan was second best and now I think he is clearly the best.  The distance shouldn’t be an issue, his quality is there and I can openly root for a son of the sire of my two fillies to win a Classic for Even the Score.

Paynter’s last two wins races earned monster Beyers but it’s hard for me to take a big Beyer in an allowance race seriously when a horse is prepping for the Belmont.  When facing much better in his first two starts of the season he whiffed, not being able to handle the slop at Churchill and never really in the Santa Anita Derby (albeit with some trouble).

I think that Union Rags probably has the best chance of upending Dullahan here but this is a colt that always finds trouble.  The fact that Velasquez gets on him is good, but it seems like a horse that finds trouble seems to find trouble all the time.  That said, he still finds the winner’s circle more often than not and that speaks volumes of the colt’s class.

That said, I’m sticking with Dullahan with Union Rags a troubled second.

Busy Weekend On Tap

DARK STAR MEMORIAL

If you're coming down to Canterbury to watch I'll Have Another's pursuit of immortality in the Belmont stakes, try and come out early.  Track officials have announced that at 10:00AM in the paddock they will hold a memorial for the late Dark Star.  There will be plenty of stories and reminiscnences celebrating Dark's life.  It's probably fitting that the memorial be held in the paddock - that's where all of Dark's picks could win. It's a good thing, too, as his spirit probably would have had a tough time finding the winner's circle if it were held trackside!  God bless you, Drk, I hope you know how much you're missed.

NEW OWNERS' SEMINAR

The Minnesota Thoroughbred Association is sponsoring a New Owners' Seminar immediately following the Dark Star Memorial (approx. 11 AM) on the second floor of the grandstand.  There will be several speakers talking about legal issues, accounting issues, partnerships, claiming, auctions, training, vet care for the racehorse and more.  If you've ever thought about getting into the game but weren't sure how, this is going to be a great opportunity to listen to experts, ask questions and get a feel for what it's like to be a part of the game.

TRIPLE CROWN?

I'll Have Another's pursuit of the Triple Crown will end one way or another on Saturday afternoon in Elmont, NY.  I'm not sure what I'll do about placing a bet on the Belmont Stakes yet.  I really want to see a Triple Crown and am seriously thinking about purchasing a $2 win ticket on I'll Have Another and root for history.  There may very well be value in trying to bet the colt, but I can't bring myself to do it.  Those that know me know that I would bet against my mom if the line was right (sorry mom - and yes, she does read my posts), so that ought to tell you how badly I want to see a Triple Crown!

Opening Weekend and a Triple Crown

CANTERBURY PARK

This should have been up on Monday but the real world got in the way and, well, here we are getting ready to head into weekend number two already!

Over 20,000 visitors spun the turnstiles for live racing on Canterbury Park's opening weekend.  Friday and Saturday were the biggest of the three days thanks to Opening Night and Preakness Day, which came complete with great weather.  Sunday was more mixed with rain in the morning and a dreary first half of the card that gave way to partly sunny skies and a drying out racetrack.  Some highlights of the weekend:

-          The early returns on the 14% Pick 3 and Pick 4 appear to be good, but the sample size is small.  Wagering into these pools was up about 20% year over year;

-          Hidden Gold won back to back Lady Slipper Stakes while his engaging and delightfully superstitious owner watched from the clubhouse in the same spot where he stood for the 2011 Lady Slipper;

-          Happy Hour Honey was the most impressive maiden winner of the weekend romping over a field of Maiden Special Weight Minnesota breds with a hand ride around the track;

-          Newcomer Tanner Riggs makes an impact winning 4 races over the weekend and topping the jock standings, tied with Dean Butler and a surging Juan Rivera;

-          Speed, speed and more speed.  According to leading Minnesota owner/breeder Dave Astar on his Facebook page, “16 races were won by horses that made the lead just half way through the race!!! NONE of the races were won by a horse more than 2 lengths off the lead half way through the race!!!”  Bet Your Boots in the 10,000 Lakes was a perfect example.

PREAKNESS STAKES

I finally gave up trying to find reasons to bet against I’ll Have Another and took the 3-1 happily.  Mario Guitterez gave a great ride and the colt was magnificent.  Bodemeister had the race he wanted and still could not hold on to win the race.  Can’t fault Bode or Mike Smith – they were simply beat by the better horse.  And the two of them were remarkably better than all the others.  Initial comparisons to Affirmed and Alydar were made but those hopes were dashed when Bob Baffert decided to skip the Belmont and prep for the summer.  While a bit sad, it makes all the sense in the world and I would do the same if he were mine: a mind blowing effort in the Derby wasn’t enough and I ran my race in the Preakness and got beat.  I’m not going to wire the field in the Belmont, so…live to fight another day in a race more suited to my style.  He’s a brilliant colt, no question, and we’ll certainly hear from him again.

In the meantime, the eyes of the racing world turn to New York and another pursuit of a Triple Crown.  While a Triple Crown after all these years would be great for racing, a darker side of racing is marching lockstep on the road to Belmont.  I’ll Have Another trainer Doug O’Neill was suspended 45-days by the California Horse Racing Board for a horse under his control testing positive for TCO2.  The Board determined that there was no evidence of “milk-shaking”, the use of a bicarbonate mixture to reduce the effects of lactic acid n the muscles.  The violation had been sitting out there since 2010.  Amazingly, two weeks before the Belmont and a run at history, the CHRB finally decides to pass judgment. 

O’Neill has denied the milk-shaking of any horses under his control and has denied it from the beginning.  He has vowed to “vigorously defend” himself against the charges while at the same time trying to lead an assault on history.  Other charges of neglect and endangerment are being dredged up including the infamous Berna Dette incident at Los Alamitos. At a time when the eyes of the mainstream sports world turn on our sport and we look back through a self-inflicted black eye.

I am hopeful that by Belmont Day the storm would have subsided and we can enjoy the racing.  There are several “storms” blowing through the racing industry right now – issues like race day medications, the real effects of Lasix, soundness issues and racehorse retirement – that need to be dealt with…among many, many others.  We have a beautiful game and it would be great if we could all get together and come to agreements that would make us a strong, vibrant industry again.  There is the very real possibility that we will see something that we haven’t seen in over 30-years and it sure would be nice if we could enjoy the moment and use it to move forward.

Derby, Oaks and Canterbury Musings

Kentucky Derby

I supposed I should start with the obvious – once again I go down in flames in picking the Kentucky Derby winner.  Alpha was simply a no show around the racetrack.  When his connections try to figure out what went wrong, someone should tell them, “Grevelis picked you” and just shake their head slowly. 

I made the mistake of clearly underestimating jockey Mario Gutierrez.  In the blog I openly questioned whether the unheralded young rider in his first Derby had what it takes to pilot home I’ll Have Another on that large a stage – and discounted the horse’s chance because of it.  I was clearly wrong. The horse has clearly stepped up from two to three, ran great preps, should have had no problem with the distance and his running style was well suited to the race.  I questioned the pilot and young Gutierrez beat me down with his whip.  Good for him – it was a good ride and I’m happy for him.

Doug O’Neill had the winner prepped perfectly and I could hear the cheering from my California friends all the way up in the Canterbury press box.  Several of the horses that I had a minority interest in that ran in California a few years back were trained by O’Neill.  I met him on one occasion in the walking ring at Santa Anita and he was gracious, warm and unassuming. Friends who have a closer relationship with him speak in much more glowing terms.  Both he and Gutierrez will need to hold on tight and put on some sunglasses because it is going to be quite a ride heading into the Preakness and the spotlight is going to be very bright.

Most of the buzz after the race was about Bodemeister and while no one wants to discount the Derby winner, setting those fractions up front and still managing to hold on to second was nothing short of amazing.  Of the others that were close to that early pace, Hansen held on the best and he faded to ninth while the others finished 15^th, 19^th and 20^th while Bodemeister was only beaten one and a half lengths.  That Arkansas Derby was no fluke and he made a believer out of me.

Kentucky Oaks

The race set up in the exact opposite way I envisioned.  I know when the half mile split came up in :47.47 that there was no way Summer Applause could close into that pace.  I was surprised that Broadway’s Alibi couldn’t hold the lead, but Believe You Can certainly believed she could as she ground out the victory down the lane over a very game Broadway Alibi.  With The top five including Grace Hall and On Fire Baby, it looks like the filly crop is nearly as deep as the males.  It’s shaping up to be a great 2012 racing season.

Picking Winners

Over at Hello Race Fans, my guest shot at taking on the best in Graded Stakes races was less than impressive.  I whiffed on all 11 stakes (though I DID have some company there, so I didn’t feel too badly) while ending up with 3 seconds and 2 thirds.  Not one of my more dazzling performances and, unlike Mario Gutierrez, I wilted under the glare of the spotlight.  I have no excuses and I will do better on Black Eyed Susan/Preakness weekend…if I managed to get invited back!

Canterbury Park

Governor Mark Dayton signed the purse enhancement bill the other day so it’s now official, there will be some purse relief for horsemen, though it looks like the effects will not be felt until next season.  That may appear to be a bit of a letdown, but given that current year revenue generates the following year’s purses, it makes a whole lot of sense.  While purses will not go through the roof, they should stabilize and return to levels that we haven’t seen in a few years.  It will give owners and trainers a fighting chance to recoup their investments and make some money and still race at one of the most horsemen friendly facilities in the United States.

The MTA New Owner's Seminar had a nice turnout on Saturday.  I was privileged to speak about racing partnerships and the mechanics of claiming.  Hopefully we didn't scare them away with the realities of the industry.  I always start these things with some sobering statistics geared to make them think about why they are getting into this game.  Expectations need to be realistic and going in thinking you're going to invest $200 and come away with several thousand is simply out of whack.  Once that's out of the way, I can relate the details of ownership and try to let folks know what the feeling is like when your horse crosses the wire first.  At the end, I hope that folks have a clear understanding of the realities and joys of the sport I love so much.

Live racing begins Preakness Day weekend and I’ve worked out a deal with a local trainer that many folks have been asking me for: a Canterbury only runner that can be “owned” for just the racing season.  It’s a two horse package where we would lease 50% of the horses while trainer owns the remaining 50%.  You can e-mail me for details but we would start as soon as the group was formed (ideally this coming week) and finish up on the last day of the meet, September 3^rd.  It should be inexpensive and fun way to have action all season while getting a taste of the ownership experience.

It All Starts With Alpha

Welcome to the annual rite of futility.  Contrary to popular belief, I am not 0 for 138 in the Kentucky Derby (I had Regret in 1915), it only feels that way.  Yet here I am, giving it the old college try.  I don’t know if I should be proud of myself for persevering or ashamed for publicly humiliating myself year after year.  This year the audience grows as I take on 12 of the best handicappers in the country over at Hello Race Fans as we choose all the graded stakes over the weekend including the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.  To single any of them out would be unfair to the rest, so go ahead and take a look.  If you’re new to racing it’s the perfect site to get you started, if you’re a veteran, I believe you’ll find some things that will enlighten and entertain you – including seeing how yours truly stacks up!

(I think that Adam and Dana lost a bet and had to include me, but I digress)

It’s exciting to see a field come together that seems to be deep and talented.  We’ve been starved for 3-year old males over the over the past several years and this year’s crop looks like a nice one.  It’s making for a wide open Derby and the opportunity for me to get off this snide.

1.      Daddy Long Legs (O’Brien/O’Donoghue) 30-1: I’m not sure about this horse.  He ran a crappy Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, took the winter off and then scored with ease in the UAE Derby to kick off his 3-year old campaign.  He’s posted no works over the Churchill strip and all his best efforts have been on turf or synthetic.

2.      Optimizer (Lukas/Court) 50-1: The last time I said “no way” on a horse it was Mine that Bird.  That said, I can’t see anything to recommend on a horse that lost by 20 ½ lengths last time out.  It looks like that 2^nd place finish in the Rebel was more fluke than flash.

3.      Take Charge Indy (Byrne/Borel) 15-1: Sure to be overbet with Calvin Borel on his back, I don’t think this guy will make the distance.  He likes to be on the engine and there will be other horses wanting that front end.  It’ll be tough for anyone to take this field wire-to-wire.

4.      Union Rags (Matz/Leparoux) 9-2: Tepid second choice in the morning line, I LOVED this colt after the Juvenile last year, getting a God-awful trip and still just missing Hansen by a head.  When he busted out in the Fountain of Youth, I would have bet him then and there, but was disappointed in his Florida Derby.  I’m not ruling him out altogether, he just seems to find trouble and he’ll get plenty of it in this field.

5.      Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux) 8-1: I’ll tell you that Dullahan is not my choice but if he wins, as the owner of a couple of Even the Score ladies, I would be pretty happy.  I think this colt may be better over turf than dirt and will end up on the outside looking in.

6.      Bodemeister (Baffert/Smith) 4-1: Can’t argue with the connections or the decision to make him the ML favorite.  His win in the Arkansas Derby was one of the more dominating performances of the Derby season and he comes in third off the layoff with good works.  What’s not to like?  Possibly the early pace up front where he likes to be.  Even for a colt of his considerable talent it’ll be very hard to wire this field.  So while he seems to be a good favorite, I’m taking a stand against him.

7.      Rousing Sermon (Hollendorfer/Lezcano) 50-1: He appeared to really step up while finishing second in the Louisiana Derby.  That field was nowhere near the caliber of some of the other Derby preps and though he should close nicely, he won’t get a sniff here.

8.      Creative Cause (Harrington/Rosario) 12-1: Beat the favorite in the San Felipe and missed by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby to I’ll Have Another.  He should have a really nice stalking trip and has the closing kick to possibly pick up the pieces of the crumbling front runners. (NOTE: Prior to publishing rumors are running rampant regarding Creative Cause scratching from the Derby)

9.      Trinniberg (Parboo/Martinez) 50-1:  Why?  Why would you compromise the future of a possibly brilliant sprinter so you can say you had a Derby runner.  A good reason why the field should be cut back from 20.  The only things that can happen from him in the race are bad: fry the favorite early and ruin his own future.

10.   Daddy Nose Best (Asmussen/Gomez) 15-1: I wish nothing but the best for my doppleganger, but I’m not sure that his road to Kentucky toughened him up enough for this field.  His figs are excellent, his style is suited and he proved that he could win on dirt last out.  He may get a piece of the super, but I don’t see him on top.

11.   Alpha (McLaughlin/Maragh) 15-1: Had a nice start to 2012 before taking couple of months and then just could not get past Gemologist in the Wood.  The distance is not an issue and if he needed one under his belt after the hiatus, he could be ready to roll here.

12.   Prospective (Casse/Contreras) 30-1: It’s hard to blame the demolition that occurred in the Blue Grass to the surface since Prospective broke his maiden and won the Grey over the synthetic at Woodbine.  The Blue Grass was a step up and Prospective wilted.

13.   Went the Day Well (Motion/Velazquez) 20-1: This may be a spot that is a little too ambitious.  Style fits nicely, but is ability may not.

14.   Hansen (Maker/Dominguez) 10-1: Guaranteed winner according to his owner but he’s going to need to get past 13 horses on his inside to get to where he wants to be early and Bodemeister is going to be in the way, among others.  He won’t be able to cash his owner’s check.

15.   Gemologist (Pletcher/Castellano) 6-1: How do you NOT like undefeated?  He was gritty and held off Alpha in the Wood but would he have been able to do so for another 1/8 of a mile?

16.   El Padrino (Pletcher/Bjerano) 20-1: He’s got the right running style for this field, but figures declining over the last three races as the competition stiffened and the distance grew. He won’t be able to overcome these.

17.   Done Talking (Smith/Russell) 50-1: Seemed to improve second off the layoff in the Illinois Derby, but also had a much softer field.  He’s back in the bigs for this one.

18.   Sabercat (Asmussen/Nakatani) 30-1: Does not seem to have improved since two and maybe should have opted for the Secret Circle route – staying home.

19.   I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Guitierrez) 12-1: Nice preps out west and seems to have really made strides as a three year old.  The distance shouldn’t be an issue but was nearly caught by Creative Cause when he moved past a mile and a 16^th.  His running style fits nicely but can Gutierrez stare done these others and pilot him home first?

20.   Liaison (Baffert/Garcia) 50-1: Didn’t finish the Lewis, beaten in the San Felipe and soundly walloped in the Santa Anita.  Does not belong in the field.

21.   ALSO ELIGIBLE My Adonis (Breen/Trujillo) 50-1: Doesn’t look like he’ll get in and probably for the best.

A big field with several who shouldn’t be around but will cause problems in during the race.  Topping that list is Trinniberg.  All this horse does is cause problems for Bodemeister.  There is a very real possibility that Bodemeister is the best horse in this field but he won’t be around at the end to show it because of the front end pressure he’ll receive.  Hopefully the colt will be able to rate, but he hasn’t shown any inkling to do so up until this point.  I wonder if Bob Baffert goes to bed at night cursing Bisnath Parboo? And Gemologist is not immune to front-runner-it is either – three of his five wins were wire to wire, though he has shown a much better ability to rate than the others.  Finally, guaranteed winner Hansen will certainly want to be on or about the lead.  That’s a lot of speed mixed with a lot of talent on the front end.

As the front runners roll, the stalkers will be in a nice position to try and pick up the pieces when things start to fall apart through the final turn.  Union Rags, I’ll Have Another, Creative Cause and Alpha will be fighting for a good spot to launch their bids.  All, of course, will not be successful.  Union Rags won’t get the mile and a quarter and I think that I’ll Have Another is a step below this group.  I think that this race comes down to Creative Cause and Alpha with some of the closers like Dullahan and Daddy Nose Best just not quite up to the same level as these two.  Of the possible horses up front, Gemologist is the one with the grit to stick around. 

(NOTE: Prior to publishing, rumors abound about Creative Cause scratching out of the race.  Here is where you need to determine, is he okay or if he races will he be less than 100%.  This would be cause for concern if the rumors persist past the next few hours.  Pay attention to the information out there and make your decision accordingly.  Should the rumors persist and I'm uncomfortable with what I'm hearing, I would move Gemologist up to 2 and Union Rags 3)

1.      Alpha

2.      Creative Cause

3.   Gemologist

Alpha will be the one that breaks the curse and leads me out of the Derby darkness.