A Brief Look at the New Belmont Stakes

I literally just deleted three paragraphs of text on my plans for not betting on the Belmont Stakes tomorrow – at least not trying to beat I’ll Have Another but just placing a souvenir wager on him to take the Triple Crown.

Well THAT plan is at an end.

With I’ll Have Another’s scratch the day before his date with destiny, I had to actually open up The Form and take a look at some past performances.  Dullahan took the mantle as morning line favorite while others are looking toward the return of Union Rags or the emergence of Paynter.  I’ve gotten over most of my depression but I’m not sure that I see any value in here.  I had thought that Dullahan was second best and now I think he is clearly the best.  The distance shouldn’t be an issue, his quality is there and I can openly root for a son of the sire of my two fillies to win a Classic for Even the Score.

Paynter’s last two wins races earned monster Beyers but it’s hard for me to take a big Beyer in an allowance race seriously when a horse is prepping for the Belmont.  When facing much better in his first two starts of the season he whiffed, not being able to handle the slop at Churchill and never really in the Santa Anita Derby (albeit with some trouble).

I think that Union Rags probably has the best chance of upending Dullahan here but this is a colt that always finds trouble.  The fact that Velasquez gets on him is good, but it seems like a horse that finds trouble seems to find trouble all the time.  That said, he still finds the winner’s circle more often than not and that speaks volumes of the colt’s class.

That said, I’m sticking with Dullahan with Union Rags a troubled second.

Busy Weekend On Tap

DARK STAR MEMORIAL

If you're coming down to Canterbury to watch I'll Have Another's pursuit of immortality in the Belmont stakes, try and come out early.  Track officials have announced that at 10:00AM in the paddock they will hold a memorial for the late Dark Star.  There will be plenty of stories and reminiscnences celebrating Dark's life.  It's probably fitting that the memorial be held in the paddock - that's where all of Dark's picks could win. It's a good thing, too, as his spirit probably would have had a tough time finding the winner's circle if it were held trackside!  God bless you, Drk, I hope you know how much you're missed.

NEW OWNERS' SEMINAR

The Minnesota Thoroughbred Association is sponsoring a New Owners' Seminar immediately following the Dark Star Memorial (approx. 11 AM) on the second floor of the grandstand.  There will be several speakers talking about legal issues, accounting issues, partnerships, claiming, auctions, training, vet care for the racehorse and more.  If you've ever thought about getting into the game but weren't sure how, this is going to be a great opportunity to listen to experts, ask questions and get a feel for what it's like to be a part of the game.

TRIPLE CROWN?

I'll Have Another's pursuit of the Triple Crown will end one way or another on Saturday afternoon in Elmont, NY.  I'm not sure what I'll do about placing a bet on the Belmont Stakes yet.  I really want to see a Triple Crown and am seriously thinking about purchasing a $2 win ticket on I'll Have Another and root for history.  There may very well be value in trying to bet the colt, but I can't bring myself to do it.  Those that know me know that I would bet against my mom if the line was right (sorry mom - and yes, she does read my posts), so that ought to tell you how badly I want to see a Triple Crown!

Interesting Attendance Figures

Here are some interesting attendance figures from Father’s Day. I’m not sure if I was more surprised by the results or by the number of tracks that either do not report or track attendance numbers! All this information is easily gathered by the perusing the DRF Charts.

First, the list of “Not Available”:

Arlington
Calder
Churchill
Emerald
Louisiana
Philadelphia
Sam Houston
Woodbine (it was NOT Father’s Day in Canada, by the way)

Here are the tracks that DID report attendance figures – at least early enough to be included in the DRF Charts for the day’s races – in descending order of attendance:

Monmouth – 54,262
CANTERBURY – 12,129
Belmont – 11,304
Hollywood – 5,911
Lone Star – 5,337
Ruidoso – 2,571

I found it interesting that in our little corner of heaven we were able to get over twice the number of bodies through the turnstiles than Southern California and even a smidgen more than a legendary racetrack in the most populous metropolitan area of the country.

I’m no statistician, nor do I play one on TV (though I AM open to offers) so before you folks out there that are start to pummel me on poor methodology, ask about handle etc., my only point is to illustrate that racing CAN hold appeal to folks. They will come out and watch if you make it exciting and affordable. It was an absolutely GORGEOUS day here in Minnesota on Father’s Day. Temps were in the low 80’s, the sun was shining and there was a slight breeze blowing. I know, I know – but Ted, you ask, there is nothing else to do in Minnesota, right? Nay, nay, I say. Days like that is when Minnesotans head outside and ride bikes, hike, fish, camp and head north to some of our over 10,000 lakes. Father’s Day is also a great day for cookouts (or bar-b-ques depending on your part of the country) and, obviously, family time.

Canterbury was loaded with families on Sunday. There were plenty of strollers and the playground area was packed with kids. Youngsters were giving mom and dad tips and more than one child was thrilled when the “horsies” came tearing past the stands in a mile plus race. The track was giving away a “Man Cave Makeover”, free admission and the elimination heats of the wiener dog races which will culminate in the wiener dog championships 4th of July weekend. Wagering wasn’t spectacular, but the crowd was. The enthusiasm in each and every race as the horses thundered through the stretch run was exhilarating. Folks were excited and people cared. Hell, I even brought our 25-year old nephew to the track for the first time and even he wagered a dollar or two! Yes, we’ll need to be able to foster these fans and turn them into bettors to keep the lifeblood of the sport alive. But isn’t getting potential new fans interested and through the door half the battle and an important first step?

Diplo's 2nd and Belmont Thoughts

If only those two were being used in the same title because they shared more than the same Saturday in June...

Diplo on the Hollywood Turf

Diplo ran a nice second in his $40,000 claiming race over the Hollywood Park turf course. He navigated the mile and sixteenth nicely with Martin Pedroza aboard and battled down the lane to earn the place. The winner got loose on the lead and, as happens when lone speed becomes controlling speed, was able to stay within himself to pick up the first place check. By all reports Diplo came back from the race feisty and full of himself. As it turns out, our boy is a turf horse after all. Del Mar anyone?

Belmont Stakes

Drosselmeyer won the Belmont Stakes in fine fashion. I had said yesterday that his breeding should be able to get him the distance but that maybe he wasn't classy enough to beat this field. He proved me wrong and turned the tables on Fly Down after the six length pasting in the Dwyer. I didn't think that he got into six lengths worth of trouble in that race, but apparently he did with the slow start costing him more than I thought. Mike Smith gave him a nice ride and had the mile and a half timed perfectly in his head.

The "Dudes" ran better than I thought they would. I especially thought the ride by Dominguez on First Dude was a pretty good one. I really expected the colt to fade out of it long before he did and he hung on for a very clear third. Most of the commentary focusing on how the Preakness runner up was being ignored was unjustified. If anything a horse that fades at a mile and three-sixteenths can't really be considered a threat at a mile and a half but Dominguez nursed him along better than I would have thought possible.

It's official, the new anthem of the Belmont Stakes was a dud. As you know, in theory I thought this was a bad idea on Thursday when it was announced (there's a lot of commentary around the web on this now, but as far as I can tell, my bitching about it was first - if I can't pick a winner, I need to brag about correctly prognosticating something!) and in practice it met my expectations. Even ABC must have thought so as it cut away from the horror before it was over to get to commercial. Bless them. It looked as if NYRA was trying too hard to remain relevant when it really doesn't have to - well, at least for the Bemont Stakes.

No Triple Crown possibility and the threat of rain kept many away reducing the Belmont attendance to just a shade over 45,000 - half of what it's been during years where there is the possibility of a Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby is America's most prestigious horse race. There is always a shot at the Triple Crown heading into the Preakness, but its placement at the tail of the Triple Crown trail places the Belmont's relative appeal to the masses in the hands of fate. A forecast of nice weather and a possible Triple Crown would move attendance past 100,000. Even a hipper new official Belmont song can't get you past not having a Triple Crown winner or even a winner of either other leg in the race. Still, 45,000 people on the day of the largest race in the biggest metropilitan area in the country is more than a little depressing if you stop and think about it too much, but that's a thought for another day.

Belmont Appears to Be Chalky

It’s Belmont Day and there is a noticeable lack of zip in Internet traffic and sparkle heading into the 142nd renewal of the final jewel. This year, more than most, the build up to the race is suffering without another chance at a Triple Crown because of the defections of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin at Lucky. There appears to be no sex appeal this year and my guess is that television ratings and on track attendance will be down sharply. Temps in the high 80’s and the threat of thunderstorms all day will do nothing to help the situation either.

There is still a million dollars on the line and the twelve contenders have stories to tell. There are going to be longshots and favorites as well as a very long stretch drive and at the end of the day a horse will cement themselves in legend and will trot away with the title of Best American Marathon Horse (3-year old division). Granted a lot of the world doesn’t see a mile and a half as much of a marathon, but here in the speed crazy United States, anything longer than a mile and sixteenth is reason for wonderment and a mile and a half is almost otherworldly.

Here is the line-up:

1. Dave in Dixie (Sadler/Borel) – I’m not sure of the thought process in entering this one. Last out in the Illinois Derby in his first trip off the synthetic he finished 16 lengths behind American Lion and now has to go even further.

2. Spangled Star (Dutrow/Gomez) – While the slow and steady gain in the mile long Withers was nice – and he’s bred for distance - this guy belongs in a NW2 Allowance, not a Triple Crown race.

3. Uptowncharlybrown (McLaughlin/Maragh) – One of the “pre-season” Classic favorites, this guy hasn’t won since a small stakes race at Tampa in mid-January. The closing move he displayed in the Lexington was more a product of a bad start rather than wanting more distance.

4. Make Music for Me (Barba/Rosario) – Disadvantaged early in the Kentucky Derby he came back from the way outside to close for fourth. Prior to the Derby he was all synthetic and turf and with the sloppy Churchill Downs underneath him, it’s hard to know what he’s going to be like in NY. The bullet Belmont work from Monday makes him a live longshot.

5. Fly Down (Zito/Velazquez) – The “other” Zito horse, his walk in the park Dwyer win had tongues wagging. The distance shouldn’t be a problem and if you throw out the LA Derby, he should be a strong contender in here.

6. Ice Box (Zito/Lezcano) – No sooner was the Derby over than the talk began – “Zito has to skip the Preakness with him and point to the Belmont”. With all the trouble he encountered and strong run down the stretch, he is the deserved ML favorite in the race. To get a price you’re going to have to try and beat him, and that won’t be easy.

7. Drosselmeyer (Mott/Smith) – Though he had his issues in the Dwyer, no way he was going to beat Fly Down. I don’t see him doing it here either. Like Spangled Star, he’s a Distorted Humor and should take to the distance but he may not be talented enough to hang with these.

8. Game On Dude (Baffert/Garcia) – No Lookin at Lucky? No problem. Let’s look in the barn and see what we can drum up to stand in for him. An easy winner of the Lone Star Derby he lost to Ice Box by over 10 lengths in the Florida Derby.

9. Stately Victor (Maker/Garcia) – Only three-year old victory was a romp in the Blue Grass over the synthetic at 40-1. Will probably have the same boxcars payoff if he wins here.

10. Stay Put (Margolis/Theriot) – Hasn’t sniffed a win at the Graded Stakes level and only non-maiden wins have been against optional claimers.

11. First Dude (Romans/Dominguez) – The second of the Belmont “Dude” entries was a solid second in the Preakness, but could be a bit shortpriced as the mile and three sixteenths appeared to be a bit much for him after setting the early fractions.

12. Interactif (Pletcher/Castellano) - A terror at two, he has not fulfilled this promise at three. Should like the distance but may not care for the dirt after playing on synthetic and turf since his uninspired 8th in the Sanford.

The race looks tremendously chalky. Ice Box should have the room and the long stretch should provide him the runway to close like a freight train again. He has improved with each race with even his second in the Derby impressive. Stablemate Fly Down should be in a better tracking position and may be in a better position to track down the early speed. The Dudes and Interactif are what pass for speed in here but probably can’t carry it the entire way so, in all likelihood, the race sets up for a Zito exacta and I like Make Music for Me to fill out the trifecta.

1. Fly Down
2. Ice Box
3. Make Music for Me

Let's Ditch "My Old Kentucky Home" and "Maryland, My Maryland", Too!

Last year I wondered aloud when Belmont Park moved from "Sidewalks of New York" to "New York, New York". Turns out it was 1997. I wasn't thrilled, but it was one classic for another. But now, at the risk of sounding like an old fogey, what the hell is going on with now a change to Jay-Z's "Empire State of Mind"??

According to NYRA marketing director Neema Ghazi the song "has become a “quintessential 21st century theme song for New York City." Good God. I have to guess that this is a lame attempt to try and be relevant and hip to a new generation of horse players. We can't lower take-outs or provide free parking and admissions, but changing the signature tune of the oldest of the Triple Crown races is what's really going to capture the younger demographics imagination.

Tears well in the eyes - of old AND young - every year as the strains of "My Old Kentucky Home" take flight as the contenders move onto the racetrack and meet the roaring and singing croud. Granted, "Maryland, My Maryland" is the same tune as "O Christmas Tree", but there is a certain amount of local pride and tradition associated with the official state song. After only thirteen years of "New York, New York" - hardly long enough to become a tradition - it's being ditched in favor of a new song that, I'm willing to wager, horsemen have never heard before.

Should we never change in racing? Of course not. We need to evolve and continue to try and cultivate a new fan base - especially that younger demographic. However my thoughts are start with what's really important to this group and go from there. These folks have grown up with casino action that offers free parking, easy wagering, a better price point, no admission charges and excitement in the air. The boom of these Gen Xers in the poker arena shows that they will take the time to learn strategy and intricacies of a new game if it can be packaged right. We need to make the product more accessible, understandable and exciting while maintaining some semblance of the traditions that have built this sport. The latest and greatest video slot machines still share the casino floor with the old classic spinning reel games and video poker. The classics still earn and have appeal and it's NOT just the blue hairs.

And another thing, the Gen Xers that I know (and help raise!) love what's new and hip - but once they discover the joy in whatever endeavor they pursue, they also appreciate the history and mystique that came before them. Racing needs to recognize what's important and update that and still maintain the traditions that add to the lore and enjoyment of the game. That's the ticket to the future, not changing a Classic race's theme song which smacks more of desperation than of a well balanced plan.

Belmont Pick 6 Wrap Up

Here is a brief recap of my day chasing the Pick 6 at Belmont yesterday. I found myself a cozy spot on the side of the road with some solid cell coverage and put the iPhone to use last night. I knew when I saw the first race result I was out. I also knew that it may be a painful day because what I feared could happen in the 1st, did happen and I that set the tone for the afternoon.

Race 4: I wrote yesterday that I feared St. Midas and my fears were well founded. He got a half a length in front of the first timer, Scholarly Pursuit, and that was all she wrote. Esquivilence finished up third.

Race 5: I admittedly overlook Quonata – the string chalk – and was burned by it. My choice, Donna’s Sandee finished a game second.

Race 6: I thought the 1, WC Jones, was the stronger of the Clemente entry on the grass and with him scratched I moved over to Storm Hope who finished “with good courage” after encountering traffic problems for 2nd and Mind Boggling who I think is still running. The winner? The “other Clemente horse”, Quiet On The Tee.

Race 7: Finally got a winner. I went three deep in this one and finished 1,3 & 4 with the winner being Crazy Thing.

Race 8: The big priced (13-1) Crazy Catlady (no doubt named for Brooklyn Backstretch) upended my two choices Speed Dating and Nedjima who finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

Race 9: Another winner. Carmen’s Kiss easily handled my other choice Sarah’s Sally with my third in this race, Crafty Gem finished 5th.

So to tie a bow on it, I finished with 2 wins, 3 seconds and a third. Out of my 12 horses in the P6, 8 actually hit the board. Not bad, but not $200,000 or as it turns out, several winners at $33,000.

Belmont Pick 6

The carryover ($150,000+) was too big to ignore so I'm taking a stab at the Pick 6 at Belmont today. The last time I gave this a shot I was 4 of 6 and my misses were right out of the gate and halfway through knocking me out right out of the gate (well, actually at the wire) and decimating any P3 tickets along the way. I Blogged live throughout that day, which was a lot of fun. Today is a bit of a different animal. I'm traveling through Northern Minnesota with very little cell coverage so I will have no idea how I did until I get closer to the Twin Cities later on tonight.

Here is my limited budget stab at riches and fame:

Race 4: A maiden claiming event on the dirt, I singled the 7, Esquivalience but fear the 3-year old St. Midas.

Race 5: Off the turf, this $25,000 CL nw2 event was plagued by scratches. I wasn't going for a single in this race, but ended up with one by default. The pick is the 10, Donna's Sandee.

Race 6: State Bred Maidens going a mile and an eight over a yielding turf course. I went two deep in this race taking 2, Storm Hope and 6, Mind Boggling.

Race 7: A filly and mare sprint, $10,000 Claiming. I reached three deep in this one and took 4, Smokin Sarah, 5, Crazy Thing and 7, Stephen's Rhythm's.

Race 8: State Bred Optional $50,000 Claimers over the turf. I went two deep here, but was very tempted to go three. My choices are 3, Nedjma (on the class edge over these) and 8, Speed Dating (who I think will benefit more from the second back angle and jockey change than Off Hand Remark). I vacillated back and forth on the 4, Princess Maura, but left her out as there will be a lot of pace in this race today and as a lightly raced 3, she may fold against her older competitors. I would not be surprised if she gets it, though.

Race 9: For the finale, another Maiden Claimer, I went three deep. The 1, Sarah's Sally, the 3, Carmen's Kiss (I came really close to not taking her - she was a last minute add) and the 10, Crafty Gem.

So to recap: 7/10/2,6/4,5,7/3,8/1,3,10

Best of luck to everyone giving this one a shot today. It'll be fun tonight to see the results when I finally get in cell coverage and am able to pull over and check it out!

Random Odds And Ends

This weekend I'm in Las Vegas visiting the kids and taking in some Little League baseball. In fact, Forrest picked up the save in his AAA team's victory this evening. We're turning around and doing it all over again tomorrow, which will leave me Belmont-less for the second year in a row. I'm just going to skim through some topics here and get back in depth again, hopefully, tomorrow evening with a preview of Fizzy Pop's next race Sunday afternoon.

The Belmont Stakes

I have no real opinion here. I was one who absolutely blew off Mine That Bird in the Derby and didn't think he could repeat the performance in the Preakness. I was absolutely wrong on both counts. There is some value lying around if you choose to pick against him, but who am I to go against Calvin Borel? With no strong opinion, I'll take the Bird see if he gets the distance.

I Am Woman

Her last effort was less than spectacular. In fact, it was awful. She was a badly beaten 8th and really didn't show much the entire trip. It may be getting time to turn her out for a bit or send her back to Chicago where she's at least competitive. The purses are nothing special, but so far neither is she. If she can race and be competitive on that circuit, then great. If not,I hope we help find her another career.

Fizzy Pop

Fiz is back in this weekend Sunday afternoon at Canterbury. He'll be racing in the 6th race, a $20,000 Optional Claiming race at a mile and a sixteenth over the turf. Jose Ferrer is back up. I'll be back to break down that race by Sunday morning. I think he's in a really good spot and coming into the race well. I have concerns about Ferrer, but that may be me. I wasn't thrilled the way he rode the last race especially when he came out to the paddock with just enough time to get a leg up and no real instructions from Bernell. That said, there may have been extenuating circumstances in the jock's room that caused him to be late, he's been having a good meet and I should try not to cut my nose off to spite my face. If Bernell trusts him again, I'll give him another shot.

That's a quick look around the horn while I'm out. I hope you all enjoy the Belmont, The Brooks Fields (here at Canterbury this weekend) and your own Little League tournaments!

Interesting Attendance Figures

A fun post by the Bug Boys today about Belmont's Memorial Day card. The title "10,099 Happy People" struck me a bit. I started thinking about the comment Canterbury announcer Paul Allen made early in yesterday's card about the crowd, wagering lines and please bet early so you don't get shut out. That, in turn, sent me to the Daily Racing Form charts to see just what was attendance here and at some selected other Thoroughbred tracks where attendance is recorded.

Monmouth - 11,565
Belmont - 10,099
Canterbury - 7,622
Hollywood - 6,591

I wanted to get numbers from Arlington and Philadelphia as well, but neither were available (nor were Churchill or Golden Gate for that matter).

The population in the Twin Cities Metropolitan area is right around three million. Three million. The NY/NJ Megalopolis is about nineteen million and the Greater Los Angeles Area is approximately thirteen million (US Census press release data).

How in the world can Canterbury only draw about 2400 less people than a major market racetrack and actually outdraw Hollywood Park?? Less to do in the TC area? Maybe, but the official kick-off of summer was gorgeous here and it is the weekend that folks start to head to cabins on the lake (pick one, we've got 11,000+). On the way back from Wisconsin this weekend, the St. Croix river was dotted with boats out cruising and fishing. Folks were out - but they were also at the track. The Red Sox were in town to play the Twins right up against first post time, so that didn't help either. The summer season in Minnesota is so short that when there are nice days to be had, camping, fishing, off-roading, biking and any other kind of outdoor activity takes over and people hit the outdoors in droves. Yet it appears that Canterbury is one of those options.

Maybe a clue why can be taken from Bert Blyleven's (Twins' color man) comments during the telecast to his broadcast partner, Dick Bremer. I'm paraphrasing here, but Bert went on a little roll about how much fun it was at Canterbury. He brought the kids and they watched the horses run, he placed a few bets, watched the call of the races by Paul Allen for a bit, ate and generally talked about the good time. The banter went on for a couple of minutes between the tandem, with both talking about going back soon and making sure they take in the races a few more times this summer. There was even a brief discussion about the difficulties of race calling. You can't buy that kind of publicity.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Canterbury is a boutique meet, but it is interesting that Monmouth - another summer happening - out-drew it's cousin to the north while Canterbury out-drew fabled Hollywood Park. I'll be the first to admit that this wasn't a scientific study by any means. The Bug Boys post got me thinking and I just did some cursory comparisons, but there may be something to learn here. Maybe the proponents of less is more are right? I don't know for sure, but it sure was interesting to take a look at the numbers.