The similarity is not good either. As you recall, day one was a train wreck. Day 2 was not much better. Plenty of close, but never the cigar.
Juvenile Turf
I had this one surrounded, but left out Pounced. He certainly lived up to his name and Interactif, while in good position throughout, never had a second gear in the lane. I knew Bridgetown wouldn't get the mile, but missed on who would nail him in the stretch.
Finish: My top 3 finished 3rd, 2nd and 5th.
Turf Sprint
In order for this one to work out for me, Canadian Ballet had to go with California Flag. As I mentioned on the Show, if he's alone down the hill it's all over but the shouting. Canadian Ballet didn't and it was.
Finish: My top 3 finished 4th, 11th and 1st.
Sprint
OK. We ALL missed this one, so I don't feel too badly about it. My only mention of the winner, Dancing in Silks, was that he needed to go wire to wire for the win. Uh...no, no he didn't. Boxcar payouts on this one.
Finish: My top 3 finished 8th, 4th and 5th.
Juvenile
Another one that the world missed. Disregarded 30-1 shot Vale of York out headed hard charging favorite Looking at Lucky. It was another half back to my choice Noble's Promise.
Finish: My top 3 finished 3rd, 2nd and 13th.
Mile
I took a stand against Goldikova on this one strictly on value. My choice, Justenuffhumor (16-1) finished very well, but left too much work for the end. The filly did it again. As I mentioned in the Show, the performance of Zacinto and Delegator would be a bellwether on Rip Van Winkle's chances in the Classic. They folded and he never had a shot.
Finish: My top 3 finished 3rd, 1st and 11th.
Synthetic Mile
My lock of the day, Mastercraftsman, was hardly a master of his craft today. Another boxcar payoff when 21-1 Furthest Land won followed by 24-1 Ready's Echo.
Finish: My top 3 finished 4th, 9th and 3rd.
Turf
I thought I had the tri in this one, but Spanish Moon, trying to rate in 2nd most of the way, displayed no close and was passed by Dar Re Mi heading into the stretch. I gambled on Presious Passion holding on to win and, despite a very gutsy performance in the stretch, was nailed by favored Conduit.
Finish: My top 3 finished 2nd, 4th and 1st.
Classic
I had her wrong. I did not think Zenyatta would hit the board. My reasoning was the field was too large and too talented to give her the opportunity to win unless she was rated closer to the pace. When Quality Road scratched and she showed so much reluctance to load - both times - I figured I was spot on and she was a goner. Hardly. Mike Smith was stellar and the race was one for the ages. Absolutely magnificent.
Finish: My top 3 finished 4th, scratched and 10th.
It was a tough weekend. When I went for value, the chalk won. When I went for chalk, the long shot won. Sometimes you have days like that. Usually you don't have them so public that the world can see, but it is what it is and I'll take the good with the bad.
I'll recap the races in a bit more detail on the radio show Wednesday night, 9PM Central on Blog Talk Radio.
Showing posts with label Oak Tree. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oak Tree. Show all posts
Monday, November 9, 2009
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Saturday's Breeder's Cup Selections
Here are my picks for the Saturday edition of the Breeder's Cup. For a more detailed analysis, click on the Blog Talk Radio player to the left after 12:35 PM Central Time and listen to today's preview show.
Juvenile Turf
Interactif appears to be the one to beat in here. While some others have the ability to jump up from their latest starts, I'm going with the chalk here.
1. Interactif
2. Bridgetown
3. Buzzword
Turf Sprint
California Flag will set the early pace. If Canadian Ballet pushes him along, the race opens ups a bit for Diamondrella and Delta Storm.
1. Delta Storm
2. Diamondrella
3. California Flag
Sprint
This race begins with Zensational wanting to wire the field. As in the Turf Sprint, others will need some help hooking the frontrunner. Fatal Bullet and long shot Dancing in Silks fit the bill in here to help set things up for Capt Candyman Can and Gayego.
1. Captain Candyman Can
2. Gayego
3. Zensational
Juvenile
Undefeated Looking at Lucky will be a short priced favorite as he's won around two turns and loves the Pro-Ride. D'Funnybone has been tearing it up back East, but hasn't gone long yet. An option at a price could be Noble's Promise who appears to be peaking at the right time.
1. Noble's Promise
2. Looking at Lucky
3. D'Funnybone
Turf Mile
Goldikova is favored to repeat and is joined by a couple of other Euros, Zacitno and Delegator, that could make for a European sweep. A sleeper at a price: Justenuffhumor who loves the turf firm and should be obliged today.
1. Justenuffhumor
2. Goldikova
3. Zacinto
Synthetic Mile
My best bet of the day appears in this race. Mastercraftsman appears to clearly be the best of this group.
1. Mastercraftsman
2. Bullsbay
3. Midshipman
Turf
I'd really like to pass on this race, but if you're going public, you have to go all out. Conduit will try and defend his title while American Presious Passion will run out to a big lead and try to hold on.
1. Presious Passion
2. Spanish Moon
3. Conduit
Classic
Undefeated Zenyatta really steps it up here in an attempt to wrest Horse of the Year honors from Rachel Alexandra. Throw in the Derby winner, the Belmont winner, the QE2 winner as well as sentimental favorite Einstein and you have a lot of entertaining story lines. But the race is about running, not story lines and I think that Summer Bird will handle this field and Zenyatta, caught in traffic, won't hit the board.
1. Summer Bird
2. Quality Road
3. Rip Van Winkle
There you have it. My choices for Breeder's Cup Saturday 2009. Best of luck everyone!
Juvenile Turf
Interactif appears to be the one to beat in here. While some others have the ability to jump up from their latest starts, I'm going with the chalk here.
1. Interactif
2. Bridgetown
3. Buzzword
Turf Sprint
California Flag will set the early pace. If Canadian Ballet pushes him along, the race opens ups a bit for Diamondrella and Delta Storm.
1. Delta Storm
2. Diamondrella
3. California Flag
Sprint
This race begins with Zensational wanting to wire the field. As in the Turf Sprint, others will need some help hooking the frontrunner. Fatal Bullet and long shot Dancing in Silks fit the bill in here to help set things up for Capt Candyman Can and Gayego.
1. Captain Candyman Can
2. Gayego
3. Zensational
Juvenile
Undefeated Looking at Lucky will be a short priced favorite as he's won around two turns and loves the Pro-Ride. D'Funnybone has been tearing it up back East, but hasn't gone long yet. An option at a price could be Noble's Promise who appears to be peaking at the right time.
1. Noble's Promise
2. Looking at Lucky
3. D'Funnybone
Turf Mile
Goldikova is favored to repeat and is joined by a couple of other Euros, Zacitno and Delegator, that could make for a European sweep. A sleeper at a price: Justenuffhumor who loves the turf firm and should be obliged today.
1. Justenuffhumor
2. Goldikova
3. Zacinto
Synthetic Mile
My best bet of the day appears in this race. Mastercraftsman appears to clearly be the best of this group.
1. Mastercraftsman
2. Bullsbay
3. Midshipman
Turf
I'd really like to pass on this race, but if you're going public, you have to go all out. Conduit will try and defend his title while American Presious Passion will run out to a big lead and try to hold on.
1. Presious Passion
2. Spanish Moon
3. Conduit
Classic
Undefeated Zenyatta really steps it up here in an attempt to wrest Horse of the Year honors from Rachel Alexandra. Throw in the Derby winner, the Belmont winner, the QE2 winner as well as sentimental favorite Einstein and you have a lot of entertaining story lines. But the race is about running, not story lines and I think that Summer Bird will handle this field and Zenyatta, caught in traffic, won't hit the board.
1. Summer Bird
2. Quality Road
3. Rip Van Winkle
There you have it. My choices for Breeder's Cup Saturday 2009. Best of luck everyone!
Friday, November 6, 2009
Recap of Friday's (Disasterous) Selections
What a nightmare! As I sit writing this there are still two Friday races to go, but if feels like I'm irreparably damaged! The recap by race:
Marathon
It was the first of many exciting finishes on the day. In retrospect, I should have given eventual winner Cloudys Night more respect and had him involved in the exotics at least. Night Lite was washy before the race and didn't want to get in the gate - I knew then that I had lost before I even got started. Given Man of Iron's performances over Poly in Europe, I probably should have paid him more attention than I did. It was an exciting start to the day, but hardly a profitable one.
Finish: Only my second choice, Mastery, hit the board finishing third.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Tapitsfly and Rose Catherine were much the best of this group. It proves that the switch to turf for RC was just what she needed and her big jump in form there was no fluke. I WAY overvalued Lillie Langtry's Euro form in much the same way I had disregarded Man of Iron's in the Marathon.
Finish: My second and third choices finished, interestingly enough, second and third.
Juvenile Fillies
She Be Wild capitalized on an absolutely perfect trip for the win. I'm not sure that she was the best horse in this field, but she stayed out of the trouble, had the rail to herself and was the victor left standing.
Finish: In a clever bit of ironic wordplay, only my top choice, Blind Luck, hit the board finishing third.
F&M Turf
Midday, with a big move into contention down the backside and an opening on the rial in the stretch out finished hard charging Pure Clan and Forever Together, the latter spotting this quality field WAY too much early on to be a factor late.
Finish: Again, only my top choice, Forever Together, hit the board. Again the finish was 3rd.
F&M Sprint
Good thing I boxed the exacta as Ventura left herself too much work at the end of the race. Informed Decision had the great ride, rating just off the pace and left plenty in the tank for the finish. Finally, an exacta ticket...not much of one, but a winner is a winner.
Finish: Hard as it is to believe, my first two choices finished second and first.
Ladies Classic
Careless Jewel could not be rated and drilled through suicidal fractions effectively taking me out of the race before the horses even hit the stretch. Life is Sweet won in a commanding performance and putting a nail in my proverbial handicapping coffin today.
Finish: As in most of the races today, the best I could do was Music Note getting another third.
Well, last year my first day was one for the record books while my Saturday was a disaster. Here's hoping that the inverse is true this Breeder's Cup weekend!
Marathon
It was the first of many exciting finishes on the day. In retrospect, I should have given eventual winner Cloudys Night more respect and had him involved in the exotics at least. Night Lite was washy before the race and didn't want to get in the gate - I knew then that I had lost before I even got started. Given Man of Iron's performances over Poly in Europe, I probably should have paid him more attention than I did. It was an exciting start to the day, but hardly a profitable one.
Finish: Only my second choice, Mastery, hit the board finishing third.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Tapitsfly and Rose Catherine were much the best of this group. It proves that the switch to turf for RC was just what she needed and her big jump in form there was no fluke. I WAY overvalued Lillie Langtry's Euro form in much the same way I had disregarded Man of Iron's in the Marathon.
Finish: My second and third choices finished, interestingly enough, second and third.
Juvenile Fillies
She Be Wild capitalized on an absolutely perfect trip for the win. I'm not sure that she was the best horse in this field, but she stayed out of the trouble, had the rail to herself and was the victor left standing.
Finish: In a clever bit of ironic wordplay, only my top choice, Blind Luck, hit the board finishing third.
F&M Turf
Midday, with a big move into contention down the backside and an opening on the rial in the stretch out finished hard charging Pure Clan and Forever Together, the latter spotting this quality field WAY too much early on to be a factor late.
Finish: Again, only my top choice, Forever Together, hit the board. Again the finish was 3rd.
F&M Sprint
Good thing I boxed the exacta as Ventura left herself too much work at the end of the race. Informed Decision had the great ride, rating just off the pace and left plenty in the tank for the finish. Finally, an exacta ticket...not much of one, but a winner is a winner.
Finish: Hard as it is to believe, my first two choices finished second and first.
Ladies Classic
Careless Jewel could not be rated and drilled through suicidal fractions effectively taking me out of the race before the horses even hit the stretch. Life is Sweet won in a commanding performance and putting a nail in my proverbial handicapping coffin today.
Finish: As in most of the races today, the best I could do was Music Note getting another third.
Well, last year my first day was one for the record books while my Saturday was a disaster. Here's hoping that the inverse is true this Breeder's Cup weekend!
Just Under the Wire - Friday's Breeder's Cup Selections
The race day has already started at Santa Anita, but I'm bound and determined to get my picks in before the start of the first Breeder's Cup race which is the 3rd on the card.
Marathon 1 3/4 miles on the Pro-Ride
Mastery, off his win in the St. Leger at roughly the same distance is getting all the publicity in this one and is installed as the 9-5 Morning Line choice. There does not appear too much value in that proposition, but with an impressive 2009 season thus far, he is hard to ignore. I will try and take a stand against him though and go with the Pletcher entry, Nite Light. If he can control the pace without interference from 12-1 outsider Black Astor, he could steal this one.
1. Nite Light
2. Mastery
3. Father Time
Juvenile Fillies Turf Mile on the Turf
I absolutely love the way Rose Catherine exploded when switched on to the turf at Belmont after a couple of mediocre efforts on the dirt. The trouble with the juvies is you never know if that's real talent or a freak day at the races which is shy my choice in the race is Aidan O'Brien's Lillie Langtry. She broke her maiden in an Irish graded stakes and has been in the money with two additional wins since. Though she hasn't got this distance yet, I don't see that being a real issue for her here.
1. Lillie Langtry
2. Rose Catherine
3. House of Grace
Juvenile Fillies Mile and 1/16 on the Pro-Ride
Connie and Michael dazzled in her debut at Keeneland posting a 95 Beyer, far better than anyone else in the field. But with the youngsters, you don't know how they'll ship and adapt. I do love the ease in which she won and that Desormeaux was given her by McPeek. A jump up by Negligee or Blind Luck (winner of the Oak Leaf over this course last month) could spell defeat for her as well. Purely based upon her being comfortable in her surroundings, I'm going with the Hollendorfer entry here, but just barely.
1. Blind Luck
2. Connie and Michael
3. Negligee
Filly and Mare Turf Mile and a Quarter on the turf
One of the most evenly matched races on paper, this race features Magical Fantasy's four race win streak (3 Gr I and a Gr II), the formidable defending champion Forever Together, Rutherienne and Pure Clan. As abetting opportunity, I'm going to watch this one rather than wager, but this post is all about selections, so here we go...
1. Forever Together
2. Magical Fantasy
3. Rutherienne
Filly and Mare Sprint Seven Furlongs on the Pro-Ride
This race is completely Ventura's to lose even though she was held off by Informed decision back in April. The real question is going to be if she has some speed to run at. If she does, it's hers. If she does not, then we'll see Informed Decision or Seventh Street try and wire the field.
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street
Ladies Classic Mile and an eighth over the Pro-Ride
So no Zenyatta? Still a great race with the likes of Music Note, Cocoa Beach, Careless Jewel and Lethal Heat. To be honest with you, I was hoping Zenyatta would choose this race because I simply love Careless Jewel in this spot and I'm sure I would be getting better than the 2-1 Morning Line. She is fast, in front and been devastating in her five race winning streak - on dirt as well as synthetic.
1. Careless Jewel
2. Music Note
3. Proviso
There you have it. I made it with 35 minutes to spare! Good luck today and I'll be posting my picks tomorrow for Saturday's card around noon.
Marathon 1 3/4 miles on the Pro-Ride
Mastery, off his win in the St. Leger at roughly the same distance is getting all the publicity in this one and is installed as the 9-5 Morning Line choice. There does not appear too much value in that proposition, but with an impressive 2009 season thus far, he is hard to ignore. I will try and take a stand against him though and go with the Pletcher entry, Nite Light. If he can control the pace without interference from 12-1 outsider Black Astor, he could steal this one.
1. Nite Light
2. Mastery
3. Father Time
Juvenile Fillies Turf Mile on the Turf
I absolutely love the way Rose Catherine exploded when switched on to the turf at Belmont after a couple of mediocre efforts on the dirt. The trouble with the juvies is you never know if that's real talent or a freak day at the races which is shy my choice in the race is Aidan O'Brien's Lillie Langtry. She broke her maiden in an Irish graded stakes and has been in the money with two additional wins since. Though she hasn't got this distance yet, I don't see that being a real issue for her here.
1. Lillie Langtry
2. Rose Catherine
3. House of Grace
Juvenile Fillies Mile and 1/16 on the Pro-Ride
Connie and Michael dazzled in her debut at Keeneland posting a 95 Beyer, far better than anyone else in the field. But with the youngsters, you don't know how they'll ship and adapt. I do love the ease in which she won and that Desormeaux was given her by McPeek. A jump up by Negligee or Blind Luck (winner of the Oak Leaf over this course last month) could spell defeat for her as well. Purely based upon her being comfortable in her surroundings, I'm going with the Hollendorfer entry here, but just barely.
1. Blind Luck
2. Connie and Michael
3. Negligee
Filly and Mare Turf Mile and a Quarter on the turf
One of the most evenly matched races on paper, this race features Magical Fantasy's four race win streak (3 Gr I and a Gr II), the formidable defending champion Forever Together, Rutherienne and Pure Clan. As abetting opportunity, I'm going to watch this one rather than wager, but this post is all about selections, so here we go...
1. Forever Together
2. Magical Fantasy
3. Rutherienne
Filly and Mare Sprint Seven Furlongs on the Pro-Ride
This race is completely Ventura's to lose even though she was held off by Informed decision back in April. The real question is going to be if she has some speed to run at. If she does, it's hers. If she does not, then we'll see Informed Decision or Seventh Street try and wire the field.
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street
Ladies Classic Mile and an eighth over the Pro-Ride
So no Zenyatta? Still a great race with the likes of Music Note, Cocoa Beach, Careless Jewel and Lethal Heat. To be honest with you, I was hoping Zenyatta would choose this race because I simply love Careless Jewel in this spot and I'm sure I would be getting better than the 2-1 Morning Line. She is fast, in front and been devastating in her five race winning streak - on dirt as well as synthetic.
1. Careless Jewel
2. Music Note
3. Proviso
There you have it. I made it with 35 minutes to spare! Good luck today and I'll be posting my picks tomorrow for Saturday's card around noon.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Jockeys - The Series
Full disclosure out of the gate: I was asked if I would be interested in promoting "Jockeys" which is premiering on Animal Planet Friday, February 6 at 9 PM Eastern. I did so without compensation. I also didn't hesitate to say yes.You may remember a while back I posted about our little corner of heaven (racing) having it's own reality show. Well, little did I know it was already in progress and the fruits of that labor start airing Friday night.
I think it's important for our game to have exposure. In my opinion it's also important that there is some story behind the scenes to help capture some public attention. I agree with the folks that argue that more has to be done on the wagering side in order to help grow handle as handle is what drives purses and keeps our engine running. But there ARE stories here. Interesting stories that can draw you in and hopefully engage you in our sport. Some of the biggest responses we get are the ones involving compelling stories of everyday heroes. Sure, the link highlighted in the previous sentence was aimed at horse people, but the response - for me - was fantastic. We need a well rounded approach to help resurrect racing and I think "Jockeys" is small step toward that end.
In summary, "Jockeys" will be covering seven jockeys in the Southern California riding colony: Mike Smith, Joe Talamo, Chantal Sutherland, Alex Solis, Aaron Gryder, Kayla Stra and Jon Court; during the 30-day 2008 Oak Tree at Santa Anita Meet.
From the Animal Planet press release:
"Cameras take viewers on and off the track – from their homes to the jock’s room where we see how these athletes physically and emotionally prepare for each race. At the starting gate, the anxious energy of the horse and jockey must be contained within their stall. With jockeys and horses fatally injured each year, the ambulance engines are on and ready for action at a moment’s notice. In the stands, revelers wait with baited breath to see which horse-and-rider team takes the lead…and if everyone finishes safely.
The drama for these jockeys doesn’t end when the race is finished. Off the track, gorgeous jockey Chantal Sutherland makes the emotional decision to leave her family in Canada for California to be closer to her boyfriend fellow jockey Mike Smith and ride at Santa Anita racetrack. Joe Talamo’s high school girlfriend ponders whether or not she can be in a relationship where each phone call could mean Joe has had a bone-breaking – or worse -- deadly fall. Family man Aaron Gryder worries that his children will grow up afraid that their daddy can be hurt at any given moment, but he’s driven by finding the next horse that will take him to “the big time.'"
The drama for these jockeys doesn’t end when the race is finished. Off the track, gorgeous jockey Chantal Sutherland makes the emotional decision to leave her family in Canada for California to be closer to her boyfriend fellow jockey Mike Smith and ride at Santa Anita racetrack. Joe Talamo’s high school girlfriend ponders whether or not she can be in a relationship where each phone call could mean Joe has had a bone-breaking – or worse -- deadly fall. Family man Aaron Gryder worries that his children will grow up afraid that their daddy can be hurt at any given moment, but he’s driven by finding the next horse that will take him to “the big time.'"
The home site for the series is http://animal.discovery.com/tv/jockeys/. Click around for a bit. Check out the trailer - it will whet your appetite. If you're new to the game, my guess is that you are going to learn an awful lot and you'll gain a ton of respect for these folks and the dangers they face each and every day going to work (seriously, how many of us go to work with an ambulance following us around). If you're an industry vet, it will confirm all that you know already - these guys and gals may be, pound for pound, the best, strongest and gutsiest professional athletes on the planet. Friday night they'll be on Animal Planet. Be sure to check them out.
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