Friday, November 6, 2009

Just Under the Wire - Friday's Breeder's Cup Selections

The race day has already started at Santa Anita, but I'm bound and determined to get my picks in before the start of the first Breeder's Cup race which is the 3rd on the card.

Marathon 1 3/4 miles on the Pro-Ride

Mastery, off his win in the St. Leger at roughly the same distance is getting all the publicity in this one and is installed as the 9-5 Morning Line choice. There does not appear too much value in that proposition, but with an impressive 2009 season thus far, he is hard to ignore. I will try and take a stand against him though and go with the Pletcher entry, Nite Light. If he can control the pace without interference from 12-1 outsider Black Astor, he could steal this one.

1. Nite Light
2. Mastery
3. Father Time

Juvenile Fillies Turf Mile on the Turf

I absolutely love the way Rose Catherine exploded when switched on to the turf at Belmont after a couple of mediocre efforts on the dirt. The trouble with the juvies is you never know if that's real talent or a freak day at the races which is shy my choice in the race is Aidan O'Brien's Lillie Langtry. She broke her maiden in an Irish graded stakes and has been in the money with two additional wins since. Though she hasn't got this distance yet, I don't see that being a real issue for her here.

1. Lillie Langtry
2. Rose Catherine
3. House of Grace

Juvenile Fillies Mile and 1/16 on the Pro-Ride

Connie and Michael dazzled in her debut at Keeneland posting a 95 Beyer, far better than anyone else in the field. But with the youngsters, you don't know how they'll ship and adapt. I do love the ease in which she won and that Desormeaux was given her by McPeek. A jump up by Negligee or Blind Luck (winner of the Oak Leaf over this course last month) could spell defeat for her as well. Purely based upon her being comfortable in her surroundings, I'm going with the Hollendorfer entry here, but just barely.

1. Blind Luck
2. Connie and Michael
3. Negligee

Filly and Mare Turf Mile and a Quarter on the turf

One of the most evenly matched races on paper, this race features Magical Fantasy's four race win streak (3 Gr I and a Gr II), the formidable defending champion Forever Together, Rutherienne and Pure Clan. As abetting opportunity, I'm going to watch this one rather than wager, but this post is all about selections, so here we go...

1. Forever Together
2. Magical Fantasy
3. Rutherienne

Filly and Mare Sprint Seven Furlongs on the Pro-Ride

This race is completely Ventura's to lose even though she was held off by Informed decision back in April. The real question is going to be if she has some speed to run at. If she does, it's hers. If she does not, then we'll see Informed Decision or Seventh Street try and wire the field.

1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Seventh Street

Ladies Classic Mile and an eighth over the Pro-Ride

So no Zenyatta? Still a great race with the likes of Music Note, Cocoa Beach, Careless Jewel and Lethal Heat. To be honest with you, I was hoping Zenyatta would choose this race because I simply love Careless Jewel in this spot and I'm sure I would be getting better than the 2-1 Morning Line. She is fast, in front and been devastating in her five race winning streak - on dirt as well as synthetic.

1. Careless Jewel
2. Music Note
3. Proviso

There you have it. I made it with 35 minutes to spare! Good luck today and I'll be posting my picks tomorrow for Saturday's card around noon.

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