There are five races left until Breeders’ Cup weekend and I’m
at least in shouting distance of the lead in the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping
Charity Challenge. I’m debating
strategy with myself after the fiasco of being around the winner last week (I’m
Boundtoscore in the Summer Stakes) and betting like an idiot (exacta rather
than a straight wager).
This week we head to the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby at Parx
Racing and see at a couple of old friends from the Travers Stakes hooking up
again, dead heaters Golden Ticket and Alpha.
In addition to Alpha, who rated just off the pace nicely in the Travers,
other potential speed in the race includes Casual Trick and Csaba – though all
have an ability to sit off a pace. The
only really deep closer in the race is Handsome Mike – and he hasn’t won since
breaking his maiden; it would be quite the accomplishment (and surprise) if he
steps up to win this one.
A relative closer (in this group) coming off a nice win and
may step up at a small price here is on the outside: Macho Macho. The Grade II West Virginia Derby winner looks
like he could have things his own way in the stretch run at Parx and the
distance looks to suite him.
The question in the contest is whether or not to combine him
with another horse and try and hit a solid exacta or stick to what’s been
winning: $20 place wagers. It really is
against my nature to be conservative and if the top two choices falter coming
off of that dead heat that place wager could earn close to 50 points. My exacta choice would be with Alpha, a horse
that has only missed an exacta twice in 9 career starts. At a 4-1 morning line, there is the
temptation to go with a straight win on Macho Macho as well – a potential 100
points is very enticing.
Since I really feel that the race will set up nicely for
Macho Macho but I don’t believe he’s the best horse in the race, I’m going
against type and staying conservative hoping to chip away at the lead.
The wager: $20 PLACE on MACHO MACHO
2 comments:
Well played! I had Macho Macho to win, bah!
I had an exacta bet that I changed. I THOUGHT. Guess frigging not. SECOND time this has happened. Not sure what I'm doing wrong when I change up wagers, but so far it's cost me over 100 frigging points...
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