Friday, August 24, 2012

Tabby's Back

She’s in.  It probably won’t be pretty, but she’s in.  She’s fresh and feels good, so she has that going for her too, but she’s no sprinter and this was what we got: $7500 Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs over the main track.  Since Tabs started for less than $5,000 over the past couple of years, the race conditions like a starter allowance so no tag on her in here.

She drew post position one which, in general, shouldn’t be too bad, but her lack of early speed could take a toll on her in this group.  There is also a trio of Iowa invaders, winning sprinters all, which look to be real threats.  Amazingly, Tabby Lane is the morning line favorite at 9/2 which makes me wonder if the PPs are just sent through an algorithm and the morning line is spit out.  Just looking at our PPs you can see that Tabby is a better router than sprinter AND has already lost to one in here.  If I was doing the pre-race analysis for Saturday, I wouldn’t have her in my top 3.  Seriously.

Let’s take a look at the field:


2.      Gail’s Jewel (Robertson/Riggs) – Late moved secured a relatively easy last race win at the $5,000 level.  Cutting back a half furlong shouldn’t make a huge difference, but it can for a late closing type.

3.      Miss Nasty (Donlin/Butler) – In my opinion, the horse that SHOULD be the morning line choice.  Reeled off two consecutive wins at Prairie Meadows: at state bred $7500 and a dominating 8 length victory in an open $15,000 (though I believe that the $15K was for state breds in the race with the open horses listed between $6500 and $7500).  Speed figures put her in here.

4.      Indy Senorita (Miller/Velazquez) –Shipping in from central Illinois where she has been competitive at the $10,000 level, albeit with inferior speed figs.  Front running type will be looking to set the pace.

5.      Lucky High (Silva/Franco) – she’ll likely be close to the early pace and had a big win over the strip two back at $5,000.  She took her act on the road and got trounced at Penn National.  She’s back home and reunited with Geovanni Franco.

6.      Valari (Bends/DeLorme) – She finished a length behind a wrapped up Tabby when the two last met behind Terice.  Since then she has a single win in a $5,000 race.  Another that will want the front.  And if Tabs is going to stand a chance, she’ll need the pace to get pushed hard.

7.      Lazeka (Tracy/Rivera) – Another Prairie Meadows shipper who ripped through her $7500 conditions before finishing third against similar here last out.  She’ll want to come off the pace, giving Tabby some company.

8.      Fast Flight Tonite (Tibbets/Shino) – The victor in the race that ended Lazeka’s streak at Prairie Meadows, she should be right on that early pace.  I say go after them hard, Shino, but that’s just me…

9.      Terice (Kirby/Goodwin) – Done her best running on the lead early and that is exactly how she defeated Tabby several starts back earlier in the meet.  Since then she has won at $15,000 ($10,000 for non-MN breds) and finished 4th in a stake and optional claiming while trying the turf.  She’ll be dangerous in here.

10.   Speakers Action (Hanson/Keith) – Won at odds on last out in a $5,000 claiming race, the 10 post does her no favors at all.  She has plenty of early speed but there is plenty of speed inside of her.  It’ll be a tall order to win from out there and her speed figs are a cut below.

Is there any possible way for Tabby to win this race?  Of course there is…it’s a horse race.  But it won’t be easy, the race will really have to shape up her way and young Mr. Canchari is going to have to keep her from getting pinned down late and getting her room to run.  The early pace will need to be fast and engage all the possible front runners.  Even then, as I mentioned, she’s going to need to have some room to run late and that one post could be problematical in that regard.

Races aren’t won on paper and certainly stranger things have happened, but she’s going to need help.  That said, I will be there, pink shirt on, ready to cheer her home with all the faith and confidence in the world.

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