Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Why is the Derby Different?

I've been handicapping for years. In fact, it's probably the 25th anniversary of betting on my first Kentucky Derby. I've won Breeder's Cup races. I've won the Preakness, the Belmont, various Breeder's Cup races, a Travers or two and any number of local Stakes races. When it come to Kentucky Derby betting, though, I'm 0 for 25.

I've tried to analyze why over the years and I have many theories, but no answers:

- It's a larger field than I ever wager on and that brings racing luck and the need for a 'good trip' more into play than ever;

- There are a lot of first times going on. First time racing in front of 120,000 fans. First time going a mile and a quarter. Could be the first Derby for trainer or jockey.

- Overanalayzation. There is so much information and so many angles that my heads spins and I obviously don't sort it out well. AND an angle that works one year, doesn't necessarily work the next.

So as we head into the post position draw, I'm patiently waiting for the Past Performances and will try and approach my 25th anniversary differently this year. I'm not going to watch the preview shows on TVG. I'm not going to read my fellow Blogger's analysis until mine is published for the world (Well...those of you that DO read this. The world is probably an exaggeration). I usually start my day this way, so that's going to be tough. But I'm going to try not to be overwhelmed by information this year. Of course my first few years handicapping this race wasn't overwhelmed by data, I think I just stunk.

It looks like the weather will be a factor this year. For another year synthetic to dirt form is going to be an interesting angle. Here I go again...

Be back in a day or two on my pick. Maybe twenty five is the charm? We'll see if I can do better than Z Fortune this year.

1 comment:

Kevin Stafford said...

Great post Ted!

You're looking at a guy who played serious wagers on Bandini, Curlin, and Colonel John in recent memory.

Oh yes, and my wife was all over Z Fortune last year. I thought he had a shot as well.

Did I mention my proclaiming Gayego a "legit contender" because I dreamt about him while visiting California about 3 weeks before the Derby.

Who could deny my psychic intuition after that marvelous call? Although it's not like it was any better than my final pick (the Colonel). :-)