Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Belmont Pick 6 - Build Me A Stable!

A million dollars. That's the carryover today. As many of you know, my public handicapping is very much limited to Breeder's Cup Day (not bad last year) and the Triple Crown races (a public humiliation every year). Today I thought, with the horses on R & R, that I would take a stab at the Belmont $1,000,000 Pick 6 Carryover and take you along for the ride. I'm also going to blog this in as real time as I can get so I'll lay out my attack on the pick 6 and then let you know how I'm doing and what I'm feeling after each race.

The ideal scenario is that I hit the first few races and keep myself alive, building anticipation and the starting to dream a little more with each passing win. Like every small time owner, I think of what I would do with an infusion of a million plus dollars in capital. First thing - pay off quite a few bills and get that monthly nut down to a crumb. Second up, call David Miller (http://www.starofthenorthbloodstock.com/) and tell him we're going shopping! I'd be thinking of a bit of a staggered stable. I'd want some horses that can win elsewhere, but would also fit nicely at Canterbury over the summer, but I'd also shoot a little higher. Maybe a couple of two year olds that I can place in Kentucky or New York that have a shot at doing bigger things as well as some mid level claimers that can bounce around between allowance and claiming races to make a bit of money. In a nutshell, a nice well rounded stable that can build on itself.

First things first, however. Winning this Pick 6!

Race 4 - 2YO MSW 7F on the Turf

Lots of first timers in here. No wonder there is a carryover! I went with 3 in this one:

5 Distant Strike - Nice debut on the turf two back. Trailed in the mud last out going longer.
6 Master - ML favorite. Bumped hard early and still rallied for 4th in debut on turf.
8 Cellar Dweller - First timer but has a great work pattern and the pedigree for the turf and distance.

Race 5 - 2YO MDCLM $75,000 6F on the Turf

Some more firsters. Wow, I could be knocked out of this sooner rather than later! I have to go three deep again, though I could ge scratched and need to regroup:

2b Fancy Asset - Bumped in debut at Spa but closed to within 3.5 lengths
5 Private Citizen - Firster with turf credentials and nice work pattern to this debut.
1a Southern Princess - third finisher in same Spa debut as 2b. Should improve off this.

Race 6 - 3YO & Up $35,000 CL 7F in the Turf

Seriously, all these turf races...not exactly my handicapping speciality.

1 Tempest Storm - easy win at this level two back. Slow Beyer last out in the slop but back on the turf should be to her liking.
5 Smartgabrielle - won first off a long layoff at this level and course last out. Improvement 2nd out and she's a winner.

Race 7 - 3YO & Up $20,000 CL 1 1/16 on the Turf

UGH!!! Do they ever run on the dirt in NY!?!?

6 T Harry - best Beyers, drop in class, tough one to beat.
8 Forget the Judge - Been in lots of trouble since the return. A solid $35,000 horse that threw a clunker last out. More of a hunch than anything.

Race 8 - 3YO & Up $49,000 State Bred Allowance 7F on the Turf

I get it. I need to beat the Turf if I'm going to win this thing.

6 Doree Daze - unspectacular group of fillies here and she is the more lightly raced. Beyers fit and won here already.
7 Mesa Girl - Steady recent form on turf. Fits here but will need a bigger race than previous.
(12 Who is Lady - raced against higher and shows solid recent form. May replace Mesa Girl in my selections. I'll let you know after I see the scratches)

Race 9 - 2YO MDCL $35,000 6F DIRT!!!!

I get a dirt race and what do I see? A billion first timers looking back at me! With the horses that have run already being less than impressive, I'm going with Dutrow's entry as he is hitting at 27% with firsters during the meet.

1 & 1A - Singling the first time entry from Dutrow. No one else is impressive. Why not?

So that's it. I'll be back on in a couple of hours after the scratches and announce my final ticket. Hopefully this'll be somewhat fun and exciting. OR, I could be publicly humiliated. Wouldn't be the first time and I'm guessing not the last!

SCRATCHES ARE IN

The scratches are in and I'm affected in the 4th, 5th and a decision was made for me in the 8th.

Cellar Dweller out in the 4th, replaced by 3 Winthrop House.

Fancy Asset out in the 5th, replaced by 9 Eleni's Hope.

Who is Lady scratched out of the 8th, so Mesa Girl stays.

I also added Angel Aly (7) in the nightcap.

Here is the final ticket for those of you following along at home:

4th - 3, 5, 6
5th - 1, 5, 9
6th - 1, 5
7th - 6, 8
8th - 6, 7
9th - 1, 7

See you after the 4th race!

5 comments:

Keith - Triple Dead Heat said...

Good luck with your ticket. I havent had a chance to handicap but I admire your effort.

Although I am secretly hoping this will carry over for...oh...let's say Monday!

If you are still alive in the last race i'll be on the edge of my seat cheering for you. Good luck!

Keith - Triple Dead Heat

Valerie said...

Woohoo! Aren't you glad you went with Winthrop House after the scratch?!?

Ted G said...

Val - you betcha (as they say up here!). And the picks went 1-2-3. Maybe it's a sign? Maybe it was one good race? We'll see...

Thanks Keith - I'll be near a stroke if/when we get to race 9.

Anonymous said...

nice try, i was out after the 1st race.

Steve Zorn said...

Sorry you weren't one of the four who hit it for $590,000 each. Would have been a nice payoff.

I'm surprised, actually, that there weren't more syndicates with big tickets that hit it. Two favorites, a 9-2, an 8-1 and two at 14-1. Difficult, nut not impossible if you wanted to put say $3,000 into the ticket(s). Anyway, congratulations to those who did have it.