Maybe Next Year?

It's been an interesting couple of days talking Standardbreds with a man with some horses to sell. Well, they are not all his horses, but he's trying to broker a few deals and get these horses into the hands of new owners. We haven't met yet, but I'm looking forward to it. This gentleman is obviously knowledgeable, honest and a real straight shooter. I like that a lot. The stock he owns personally isn't high class, nor has he priced them that way. The prices his client's want...well, that's another matter entirely.

Without getting in to specific details, one example: a four year old pacer with a lifetime best mark of around 1:57; races at short season Running Aces/Iowa Fairs/Prairie Meadows (combined average purses per race about $3500); has two wins in '09 - for races with purses well under the average. Asking price: $18,000.

This illustrates something I have found trying to buy a Standardbred for a group up here. If there is even the slightest hint of talent, the asking price is through the roof. It is as if once a track was built the value of a horse jumped exponentially. I can understand the value increasing now that there is going to be more than just the local Fairs to race at, but $18,000 for a horse that would have to be dominating to make it's purchase price plus training fees back over a couple of years?

Here is how I break it down: Even at the highest levels in this area it would need to win almost 9 races to earn back her price - but that doesn't include training, shoeing, vet care, etc. That's a bit of a moving target, but add on 8 more wins over two years to cover these costs plus turn out fees over the winter. That's 17 wins over two years only to just about break even. That's one helluva horse. Breeding potential? Probably not this one and not my gig anyhow.

Now folks will say that this isn't something you get into to make money. In a way, I agree. You can't expect to make a profit, it's just too hard. But you have to at least try. It has to be a goal. A successful group, in my opinion, is if folks can have some fun, take some win pictures, feed some carrots, watch some training and stay around even. Earning money on top of that is the icing on the cake. When you run a partnership, you have a responsibility to the folks that spend their money with you. You need to treat that money as if it were your own. Digging yourself a hole too deep to climb out of right out of the gate just doesn't make any sense to me and would be an abrogation of that responsibility. Looking at the above example, winning half that many races would be a successful couple of years and a win percentage of about 25% - but at the current asking price we would have lost roughly $9,000 over two years. That doesn't meet my criteria for success.

I'm going to keep trying to get something done, though it'll have to be quickly as the season ends August 9. Unless you own and train your own stock, if we are going to be in harness racing, it looks like we are better off racing at a distance and stay back East for now. There is more of a Middle Class there, if you will. You can have a goal of staying around even - there are enough tracks, money and horses to shop around. At this moment, you just can't do that here. I don't think that bodes well for the sport here long term, but right now it's the way it is.

To Pace or Not to Pace

I've gone back and forth with this issue for months - do we run at Running Aces for the inaugural harness meet or not? The purses are not going to be spectacular this first season, though next racing season with the card club money in, purses should be elevated enough to make a nice run through the meet with a good horse. Is it worthwhile to put together a Standardbred partnership this season?

Another decision to make is whether to pick up a trotter or a pacer. I think for breaking into the harness business, a pacer is a sounder investment. It is much more likely for a trotter to break stride in a race than a pacer. For those of you unfamiliar with the terminology, a pace is a smoother gait where the horse moves the legs on each side in unison while a trot looks a bit more ungainly and the legs work with the right front and left rear moving in unison and the same with left front and right rear. A trot almost looks like the horse is clawing at the ground ahead of it when you view it head on. It's a more difficult stride and there are fewer Standardbreds that are accomplished trotters. When a horse breaks it's stride in a race, it can no longer gain ground and needs to be pulled to the side out of the way until stride is regained. Needless to say, it is almost impossible to recover and win a race once a horse goes on a break. In some trotting events featuring younger horses, the race many times goes to the horse that can stay on stride. For a group getting into this business, you have the potential for fewer ups and downs with a pacer.

So I've made a decision - if I can find a good lower level claimer ($3000 - $5000) than can consistently pace a mile in 1:57 of better, I'm in. These horses can be had in Chicagoland or even further East, but it's important to take into consideration shipping costs and then training expenses once he's here.

I alluded to the differences between the development of harness racing in America as opposed to the development of Thoroughbred racing in a previous post. Nowhere is that contrast more apparent than in my search for a trainer to take a horse I'll buy. In looking for a Thoroughbred, there are literally hundreds of public trainers that will gladly take your business. You sign them on your team and you find a horse, claim him and then whisk him away to his/her barn and away you go. In harness racing my quest has been a little different. I'm having a more difficult time in securing a trainer that operates a public stable in the same way that a Thoroughbred trainer does. Ideally, I'd like to be able to work with a trainer to claim/purchase a horse back East and then coordinate the shipping of that horse back here and into a barn for work - much in the way folks do with their Thoroughbred trainers.

Many of the horsemen that appear to be flocking to the new track are folks that own, train and in many cases drive their stock. They have raced the Fair Circuit out here for years and finally have a track and meet that they can call their own. While I think this is wonderful, right now it creates a kind of closed society that is hard to gain admission. I have touched base with some Iowa folks that may be able to help me out and another gentleman here in MN has been very helpful in trying to provide some leads. So my approach has become to make phone calls, touch base with people and see if I can set up something. I'm gauging interest out there from folks and if we can pull something together this season, we'll have a blast and try and make some money. If not, we'll focus on our Thoroughbreds and keep an eye on how things are going at Running Aces.

If you want to take a peek at what's going on up in Columbus, MN, go ahead and click on this link - http://runningacesharness.com/