For $1,000,000, Goofy is Okay

The Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream is a goofy gimmick.  Unlike a traditional Pick 6 wager, this bet isn't really "won" until there is only a single winning ticket.  The consolations - 6 of 6 with multiple tickets alive - can run into the tens of thousands of dollars.  The base wager is attractive, twenty cent as opposed to a dollar or two per combination.  The low base wager enables you to cover many more combinations for less cost, the trade off, of course, being that there are more chances for multiple winning tickets.  I've actually hit this before, closing day of 2012 (I believe - the ol' memory is shot to hell) when there was a "must pay" (at the end of a meet any carryover has to be paid regardless of the number of winners because it can't continue over to the next meet).  It was a nice payout, about $3,000, but certainly not like this.

The single ticket carryover is now over $1,000,000.  Heather and I decided that we needed to take a shot at it.  Going in I think we have a nice combination of some chalk and some longer shots.  I don't know if have the bombers required to end up with the only ticket but series of our longest shots could combine to get it.  If nothing else it'll be fun to follow whilst I wallow through spreadsheet updating, listen to US/Canada hockey and watch the developing snowpocolypse.

Best of luck to everyone going after it today.  I'll be tweeting through the ordeal over at @tlgrevelis if you want to follow our progress (or lack thereof - god forbid!).

Tabby Takes on Seven at Seven

After nearly 60-days Tabby Lane is back in a race.  We were looking for a $16,000 claiming race or, near the end of the wait, even another $12,500 race just so she can get racing again.  There is nothing more frustrating than having a fit horse that’s just reeled off two wins in a row get stuck waiting for a race to fill.

The golden ticket was finally punched for tomorrow (Saturday) in a $5,000 starter allowance going 7 furlongs over the main track.  I would have liked to have had a bit more distance but at this point beggars cannot be choosers.  We certainly would not have gone below 7 furlongs.  Tabby is just not equipped to sprint and the setter of the morning line at Tampa Bay Downs apparently feels the same way – or at least feels that she needs more than 7 furlongs.  Maybe he’s right, maybe not.  Over the distance Tabby has a win, a second and two thirds over six career starts.  Not bad.  And in that winning effort she was only a point off her career best Beyer speed figure.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.

Here is the field for the 10^th race at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday.

Learn the Lingo (Hyland/Allen) – Second choice has had a couple of subpar efforts since reeling off two in a row to close out 2011 at $10,000 claiming.  Was void of early speed in those efforts which is contrary to her better performances in her PPs where she was on or near the lead.

Bobbiesqueen (Navarro/Serpa) – Morning line favorite at a meager 8-5, this front runner came back from a short break at Calder at the of the year and made her first two efforts at Tampa winning ones in a conditioned $5,000 claimer and a non-winner of one allowance – both in convincing fashion.  Emboldened, she traveled to Gulfstream for an optional claiming starter and, although she set the fractions, wilted late against the tougher competition but managed to hang on to take the show spot.  She is a well-deserved favorite if she repeats her Tampa form and is left alone on the front end.

Markswayornoway (Camillo/Gonzalez) – Winner of a conditioned $5,000 claiming race last out, this one looks like she may be in a bit over her head in with the top of these, though hopefully she can push Bobbiesqueen early.

TABBY LANE

Black Magic Moon (Vacca/Vargas) – Her last race in 2011 was a doozy, smoking a field of low level claimers at Suffolk by over 10 lengths.  After that race she was laid off until last month where she was pushed up to her former class levels ($16,000 - $20,000) and simply wasn’t competitive.  Butler was on board for both her local efforts but will be on Tabby Lane today.

Standing Appeal (Camillo/Clemente) – Another Juan Camillo trainee, she also has been toiling at the lower rungs at Tampa following up a win at $5,000 with a ho-hum third at $8,000 last out.

Harlan’s Pepper (Nagle/Spieth) – A winner two back in a non-winners of 3 $8,000 claiming race, she graduated into a straight $8,000 claiming race where she was a respectable 3^rd after having some trouble early.  She has some good tactical speed and it should be interesting to see what Spieth does should Bobbiesqueen takes the engine all alone.

Holy Bling (Passley/Garcia) – She’s hit the board in her last five starts, winning three of them.  She’s a solid sprinter who has done well stretching to 7 furlongs.  She was unable to hold up against the likes of $12,500 fillies and mares last out when it counted and she faces several in here that are of at least that quality, including Tabby, though is rated a bit ahead in the morning line at 4-1.

As you may have been able to guess, I’m a bit miffed at the morning line.  And I'm miffed for absolutely no valid reason.  Objectively there are probably four horses that can win this race: Bobbiesqueen, Tabby Lane, Learn the Lingo and Holy Bling and the obvious choice of those four is Bobbiesqueen, the morning line favorite.  The reality is that the morning line doesn’t matter a hoot.  We’ve all heard it before, “The races aren’t run on paper.”  My guess is that while Tabby is valued for her ability at Tampa and her recent winning streak, a seven furlong race is viewed more like a sprint and it’s no secret that Tabby needs a bit more room to unwind and get rolling.  Pick us 4^th if you will, but there is a way that these 7 furlongs could work to her advantage. You know, I think a shrink would say that I'm acting like someone is picking on my kid...

Bobbiesqueen is a frontrunner.  Last race she set fractions at Tampa of :23.1 and :46.4 while cruising to victory at 6 ½ furlongs. Holy Bling, on the far outside, set fractions of :22.4 and :45.4 when she won at six furlongs last out.  Standing Appeal, Markswayornoway and even Black Magic Moon and Learn the Lingo (in her better efforts) all prefer the front end.  Markswayornoway even pushed along Holy Bling last time they faced each other before fading.  Markswayornoway is a considerable distance from Holy Bling in the starting gate but is settled in right between Bobbiesqueen and Tabby Lane.  The three hard chargers could leave the rail open early for Tabby to save some ground while letting the speed move out.

It is a 7 furlong race so Tabby can’t sit too far back and still expect to make a run, but there is no one I trust more in the irons judging the pace of the race than Dean Butler.  His last ride on Tabby was picture perfect and as of late (he was last month's Jockey of the Month at Tampa) he has been simply fabulous.

My concerns are twofold: the unintended layoff taking the edge of her sharpness and Bobbiesqueen going wire to wire.  If both of those concerns are mitigated, Tabby Lane will be right there at the end.

Donn, Shmonn, Tabby's Back on Saturday

On Saturday, on of the strongest fields of older handicap horses are going ton take the track at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, FL.  In post position order, some of the 'names' that have turned out for this one are:

I Want Revenge
Morning Line
Giant Oak
Eldaafer
Fly Down
Square Eddie
Rule

This is one star-studded field that will help set the tone for 2011 in the older ranks.

Up the road a piece, though, at Tampa Bay Downs, another star - though maybe only to her partners - is taking the track to make her 2011 debut.  Our very own Tabby Lane (Even the Score-Keeley Chay-Rodeo) is set to face off against a large field of 11 in an $8,000 claiming race.

While the stakes aren't nearly as high from a dollar and cents stand point, the stakes are very high for those of us connected to her.  Tabs started out after the claim like a house on fire: winning at $16,000 then a good second in a very quick $32,000 claiming race.  As she moved north, her form moved south and we went from having breeders calling to see how much they could buy her for, to turning her out for the winter and see if she could get her head back into place.  The large cushion in the bank account dwindled and the hopes and dreams for a Claiming Crown berth came crashing down when she couldn't beat a field of $7500 claimers at Canterbury Park.

So we take to the track again to see if we can reverse our fortunes and set the tone for a better 2011 and give the folks on the fence about joining us for our 2011 Claiming Group a reason to take the plunge.