Saturday, October 13, 2012

HRF/BC Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge Race 11: QE II Challenge Cup

The race is coming down to the wire in the Hello Race Fans/Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Capping for Charity Challenge and due to some bad wagers and operator error (a winning wager not input correctly – freaking dope) I’m in a bad spot: 9th place and nearly 300 points off of leader Ernie Munick who’s looking to take the field wire to wire.

No more place wagering.  I have to bet to win or take a real shot in the exactas and try to score a solid win.  With only 2 races left before Championship Weekend at the Breeders’ Cup, I need to make a move.

This week’s race is the Grade I QE II Challenge Cup at a mile and an eighth over the Keeneland turf course.  Stephanie’s Kitten enters the race as the 5/2 morning line favorite so that eliminates her from contention – as far as the contest goes.  I need 3-1 or better in order to be able to try and gain some real ground.  No one has really been a consistent scoring machine at all during the contest and as we’re all getting a bit more concerned as the contest winds down, I am hoping that spawns some desperate plays.  If I can go three of the last four at 3-1 or better, I may yet still be able to claim the $2500 prize money for the Minnesota Retired Racehorse Project.

This week I’m going with Samitar.  Since coming to this country she’s 1 for 2 with her loss coming in the Grade II Lake George soon after her arrival.  After some rest and prep she stormed back to win the Grade I Garden City at Belmont rating just off the pace and getting up to win late.  I’m hoping that she can track behind the early speed of Dayatthespa and get up again over many of these same rivals. 

My two main concerns are: 1) Dayatthespa may have things her own way up front and; 2) she’ll end up lost in the cavalry charge at the end of the race with all the closers.  I can’t dope out a clear exacta choice in here so I’m going Samitar, straight up.

WAGER: $20 win on SAMITAR

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