We head into Belmont Day with another chance at a Triple
Crown and, if you believe all the racing scribes, the best chance in nearly
four decades to get one. While I do
think AP is the best horse in the race, he certainly isn’t the best value. I think you either take a stand against him
or you pass the race and root for history.
For Hello Race Fans, the best new racing fan education site
on the web, a group of us made some picks for the Grade I races on the card so
I’m going to go into a little detail here on my selections.
OGDEN PHIPPS
UNTAPABLE the unbeatable, right? Well, nearly, but not entirely. She’s been off since her easy victory in the
Apple Blossom and has been training nice and regularly. She’ll be zero value on the board and an
improving WEDDING TOAST could be the one to go get her if she keeps on
improving.
WEDDING TOAST
ACORN
I got beat by the undefeated PROMISE ME SILVER in the Eight
Belles on Derby weekend and it’s hard to not be impressed by SHOOK Ups runner
up finish in the Oaks and Curalina’s cruising victory in a Churchill $75,000
optional, but I’m loving CONDO COMMANDO cutting back from a route to a
mile. Her speed may very well be the key
and I think that she can cut back better than PROMISE ME SILVER can stretch
out.
CONDO COMMANDO
JUST A GAME
This is a nice betting race and I could make a case for
several in here. I went back and forth
between BALL DANCING and COFFEE CLIQUE and decided to go with COFFEE
CLIQUE. Should the other win I wouldn’t
be surprised.
COFFEE CLIQUE
METROPOLITAN
Easily the best race of the day, all due respect to the
Triple Crown try. In a race where you have
TONALIST, WICKED STRONG, BAYERN, PANTS ON FIRE, HONOR CODE and KOBE’S BACK –
most of the best older horses in training – you really can’t do better. I’m not a big BAYERN fan and he was a
disaster in his odds on seasonal debut but he’s been training well and if his
occasional clunker was out of the way in the Churchill Downs, he could bounce
back nicely. He likes the front and he
has speed on his inside and that could make things tough on him on the front
end. If TONALIST doesn’t bounce after
his sparkling debut, he should get the right trip behind the early pace.
TONALIST
MANHATTAN
Some really nice turf routers in here for this one and one
former Derby trailer trying grass for the first time. GENERAL A ROD doesn’t appear to have a turf
pedigree and appears to have a tough trip laid out for him in his turf
debut. To the inside you have TWILIGHT
ECLIPSE, the West Pointer that broke through with his first Grade 1 victory
last out in the Man O War, and the tough and steady FINNEGAN’S WAKE. The steadiest of all in here is BIG BLUE
KITTEN. The Ramsey homebred knows how to
win and is always in with a chance. His
seasonal debut was stellar in taking the Ft Marcy and he should be flying at
the end…if he can get there in time.
BIG BLUE KITTEN
BELMONT
Unless you want to toss the favorite and look for a boxcar
payoff, this is not a particularly good betting race. By all indications and measures, AMERICAN
PHAROAH is coming into the race perfectly.
He’s the best horse in a small field and if he can navigate the
distance, we should have a Triple Crown winner.
In my opinion, this is a watch but don’t wager race since I’m not
willing to toss the fave. I don’t know
if any of the real long shots tend to figure at all and, if you’re tempted to
try and beat him, the best options appear to be FROSTED, MUBTAAHIJ and
MATERIALITY.
AMERICAN PHAROAH
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