Sunday, June 9, 2013

Bourbonology Gets Her First Canterbury Start

The morning line favorite.  I’m not sure how that happened, but it did.  Bourbonology (Gulch-Ciencia-El Gran Senor) is making her first start for us today (Sunday) and ended up the morning line favorite at 5/2.  The race is a maiden special weight going 7 ½ furlongs over the turf.  What’s interesting is that we were entered in a $20,000 maiden claiming race going a mile and 70 yards over the turf on Friday night but we were buried out on the “also eligible” so we didn’t get in.  We were also the 7/2 second choice in the morning line.  So we moved up in class and up into favoritism as well.  Go figure.

So what’s wrong with being the favorite?  Nothing to the horse as you can see by Bobo’s concern Saturday afternoon…
However from MY perspective, it’s nerve wracking.  There are a lot of expectations that come from being the favorite.  I feel badly if we lose and burn folk’s money.  I understand that no one is holding a gun to anyone’s head and forcing them to wager, but I still feel badly if we don’t win for them.  There are certainly several reasons why Bobo should win this race – and I play those scenarios in my head over and over again, but what also goes through my head is every goofy permutation on how we can lose the race.

Let’s take a look at the field and I’ll try and be objective.

Rio Bello (Berndt/Shepherd): beaten by 53 ¼ lengths in her off-the-turf Canterbury debut.  Comes back here with a turf Tomlinson of only 182 (about 280 or more shows some potential aptitude).

Bitter Tears (Arerburn/Rhone): Led all the way to the just near the finish in a $25,000 Maiden claimer at Tampa last out.  Back to back speedy efforts.  The 7 ½ furlongs may be perfect.


A Thousand Talents (Kirby/Escobar): Not a very promising first start at Remington last October, but took some time off and came back for her first start in 7 months on 5/24 running a flat 5th after starting a step slow on another off-the turf MSW.

Shesinittowinit (Biehler/Keith): Solid 5 ½ furlong effort last out in her Canterbury debut.  She gave way late and probably needed the race.  She has a light turf number and this will be her turf debut.

Ee Da How (Lund/Vegara): Pulled up her last time out but had a very stylish debut.  If she is feeling okay, I know that trainer Valerie Lund will have her ready.  I may fear her the most.

Daring Ride (Padilla/Eikleberry): Closed quickly but fell short.  The shorter distance may be better suited to him if he can handle the turf.

Velvet Kay (Berndt/Ochoa): Drilled twice in her first two races, she may be better suited to a lower class level.

Excusemeplease (Bravo/Butler): Another off-the turf race last time with a rally that might have been better suited to a shorter distance.  Butler chooses this mount over Bobo which may or may not mean anything.  I begrudge no jockey their choice of mount and I wish him well.  I also want to beat him!

Biloxi Lion Tamer (Burgess/Goodwin): Front running effort fell short at the Fairgrounds back in March of 2012.  Hard to know what kept her off the track for so long or if she can tackle this type of group.  She has a nice work pattern, however and could be solid here if she’s ready.

I’m not going to get into all the ways that Bobo could lose this race. We ALL know every way a horse can lose.  The question is, can she win?  I think she can but she’ll need to fire.

Her 2013 has been odd.  She came back after a long layoff and ran flat in a maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs after moving from Chad Brown to Joan Scott.  Then she moved to Arlington where she was washed off the turf and moved to the synthetic. She finished a good third with the top three finishers finishing within 4 lengths of each other and the rest of the field picking up the pieces 6 lengths behind them.  She now moves up to Canterbury where, hopefully, she’ll end up on the turf and running fit for the first time this year.

The weather may have other ideas. Showers and thunderstorms are “likely” overnight with showers and a few thunderstorms tomorrow.  The chance of rain is about 60%.  We could conceivably get washed off the turf tomorrow.  Should that occur we will go 1 mile on what would likely be a wet dirt track.  Should that occur, we will indeed go.  Bobo should perform well on a wet track and her race in inclement weather in Chicago was fine.  She has a very real possibility of stepping up in this race and really improving.  If she can do that, she should do really well.  I’d like to see her draw off by 5, but it’s more likely that she’ll sit behind the early pace set by the likes of Bitter Tears, Excusemeplease, Biloxi Lion Tamer and possibly Sheisinittowinit and pick up the pieces should the pace be too tough.

I am going to try something a bit different for the next blog piece (if technology doesn't trip me up!) - I'm going to video blog Bobo's race day from the perspective of an owner - which is what this blog is all about.  I'm not quite sure how that's going to work out yet, but we'll shoot some footage and see how it goes.  And I'll try to keep the language least PG-13.

Best of luck to them all and let ‘em all come home safely!

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