Thursday, November 8, 2012

Third Time the Charm for Kat at Calder?

The morning line maker at Calder Race Course feels like the third time will be the charm for E Sveikata.  Our two year filly goes postward as the luke warm morning line favorite at 3-1.  Analogy, a filly she beat by 6 ¼ last out is the 4-1 second choice.  Our gal has a lot to commend her but this field of $32,000 maiden claimers is not just going to roll over for her.  She picks up an extra furlong and a half to 6 ½ for this race and that should work out nicely for her.

Of course I am traveling this week and, even worse, have a 2 PM meeting in Michigan with the race scheduled to go off at 2:18 PM ET the odds are not good that I’ll be able to see it live – or at all until I reach the hotel later that evening.  I’m willing to guess that I will know the result not long after I leave that meeting, though.

From the inside out:

Carolinaonmymind (O’Connell/Gallardo): O’Connell is scoring at 14% with first timers and usually has them prepped for a solid first effort.  A 2-yer old debuting on the rail is always a dicey proposition, however.

Senora de Lujan (Duco/Elver Nunez): A pair of fourth place finishes in her first two starts with the last in a maiden special.  Her Beyer suggests she didn’t improve much from race to race, but I’m sure the effort against better sharpened her up some.

Lori’s Image (Rose/Panici): Eight tries, eight times being beaten by double digit lengths.  She stays at the same level here and probably will deliver the same result.

Ariel’s Flyer (Warren/Monterrey): Kat had her by about 4 last time and she really didn’t fire, taking a step back in the slop.  The track looks to be dry tomorrow so an effort more like her debut is probably in order and that will make her tough in here.

Foxie Afleet (Olivares/Cruz): Another first timer with fair works but nothing that makes you think that this will be a winning debut.  May need one.

One Hot Tomato (Williams/Boraco): Only one posted work, 95th out of 99 with a :52.3  Unless there are more “farm works” out there, this firster will need to race into shape.

Distinct Spirit (Smith/Rodriguez): Has flashed some early speed against better but faded.  Takes it down a notch here, but the extra furlong and a half does her no favors.

Connor’s Gold (Smith/Bocachica): Debut was not a bad effort in a $50,000 MCL.  She stalked nicely before fading – certainly no surprise from a first time starter.  She should improve off of that effort and with the drop in class she figures to be a factor if she’s fit enough.


Analogy (Fawkes/Cruz): Second choice in Kat’s last race, took to the lead but gave way in the turn.  She carried her speed longer than she did in her debut, but that will be counteracted a bit by the extra furlong.

Kat comes into the race in fine form.  She has no issues to speak of and has been galloping very well.  Her last race was certainly a step up from her first but it’s important to remember that it was over a sloppy race track and that figures to be to her liking.  A couple of things to recall from the last race: she got off a step slow and when she was hustled to the front she had to steady a bit to avoid running up on the leaders heels.  She broke her momentum and lost a couple of lengths but was able to close well and really finish strongly.  The extra distance looks to be good for her as we have her pegged as a 7 furlong to a mile filly so she should really be coming into her own here.

Of course there are a myriad of ways that a horse can lose a race and with class droppers and a dry track, several others figure to give her a go in here.  If Eddie can rate her and she still has the ability to close into what should be a fair pace set by Analogy (hopefully pushed by Distinct Spirit) we should be in the mix coming to the wire.

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