Saturday, May 16, 2009

Fizzy Pop - Race Preview

Fizzy comes into Sunday training well.He went four furlongs in :48.6 on Wednesday as a prep for tomorrow's race and he appears to be firing on all cylinders. However (there always is a however!), he does have a history of throwing in a clunker in his first start at a new track. Earlier this year he ran a nice second in his seasonal bow at Tampa after shipping in from Oklahoma, so maybe he's gotten out of this practice!

The race is the 4th on the card at Canterbury and is $25,000 claimer of NW of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter or a state bred that has never won 3. The race is a mile and 70 over the dirt and a bit short for him, though he has won at a mile for us before. Here's a breakdown:

1. Perfect Bull (Butler): Yes, Dean is riding Perfect Bull. Am I disappointed? A little, but I completely understand the decision. The choice is between a 3-year old that'll probably be your stakes horse all summer long or a mid-level 5 year old claimer. Not much of a choice! It makes all the sense in the world. Bull ran in the Gr 2 TB Derby and finished a mere 21+ lengths behind Musket Man. Sandwiching that race, however, were a 2nd and a win in open allowance company. No small feat for a Minnesota bred (Holy Bull - Perfect Moment - Dazzling Falls). With the exception of his maiden, all wins have been on turf and a lifetime best Beyer of 77 - though that was last out.

2. FIZZY POP (Ferrer)

3. Benson (Stevens): Two nice preps for Canterbury, a second and a win in Turf Paradise allowance races. Both were a bit shorter than this and both were over the turf (as were his only career wins). Last two race Beyers were 82 & 81, but previous figs on the dirt were no higher than 69.

4. O'Connell's (Williams): Probable post time favorite coming off two wins in Chicago for Mac Robertson at $25,000 and $18,000. His only been effective stalking the pace once, though, and the last two wins were from way off the pace. The Canterbury dirt course is very tough to close in to from far out of it, but on class, form and speed, he's the one to beat.

5. Hunting Pride (Rivera): Drilled in the slop at Hawthorne in seasonal debut. Only time hitting the board were in Minn-bred races. May be over his head here.

6. Suddenly Silver (Bell): Also entered in today's 10,000 Lakes Stakes, if Silver runs, I think he'll be tough. He has early speed and the rest of the entries here prefer to close - though Benson and Bull have can stalk. I can see a scenario where Silver shakes loose on the lead and it becomes tough to catch him.

If Jose can rate Fizzy not too far off the pace (5 lengths or so), he'll have an opportunity to win. I don't know if he can get past O'Connell's or if his stakes running stablemate is THAT much better than he is, but we have a shot in here. I worry about Ferrer's unfamiliarity with the horse, but he's a professional trying to re-establish himself, so a win is important to him. Never count out a hungry rider! My last experience with a jockey switch was last season when Somerset Wish took on Adolpho Morales when leading jock Derek Bell took off for another mare. Wish won that race and then one more in her career finale. Sometimes the chemistry is just there. This is a closely matched race and should be great fun to watch.

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