Friday, April 10, 2009

Fizzy Pop at 15-1 in Morning Line

I swear. I may be mistaken, but I usually see anything from 12-1 up as horses that have no business being in the race. I really don't see that in here. Maybe I'm being a homer, but I think our boy has more than a puncher's chance in here.

Ten are scheduled to go postward in the 8th at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. It's an open $25,000 claiming race going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. Fizzy Pop will spring from the 10 hole down the chute and around the Oldsmar oval once to complete the circuit. If Fizzy was one to gun out of the gate I'd be pretty concerned. That short run down the chute would be really problematical if we had to get out in front. Thankfully we don't need the front and look to be part of the cavalry charge down the homestretch like so many Tampa turf races finish.

Here are the ten:

1. Strike Impact 20-1 (Gonzalez) - Dropping in from $32K (like many in here). Only signs of life were starts in December and January on the dirt. The last two starts have been less than inspired with Beyers in the 50s and a revolving door of jocks.

2. Little Dovefeather 5-1 (Lopez) - Another dropper, but one that has been a bit more active. After a stellar return after a 3.5 month layoff (4th only beaten 4.25 in a $23,500 Allowance earning a 90 Beyer) the last two efforts have been flat with declining speed figures.

3. Go to the Sun 6-1 (Villa-Gomez) - Off since August, his return on March 24 was a flat effort over this turf course going a mile. Has run against better, but will need to step it up from that effort today.

4. Quistopher 9-2 (Garcia) - Early speed though hasn't been able to make the distance for a while. Solid figures and a solid $25,000 horse. May be able to control the pace and "make every pole a winning one".

5. Sundance Richie 30-1 (Cotto) - Coming off a claim to a barn that wins at a 24% clip off the claim. He's climbing up in class and stretching out, so this may be a bit ambitious - especially 0-5 on the turf.

6. Beijing House 12-1 (Rosario) - Since moving onto the turf and up to this level there have been some checks, but no better than a third. Jockey Dean Butler comes off this one to ride Fizzy.

7. Tiganello 6-1 (Cruz) - One of two from the Ness barn (winning at 31% this year) in this one. Second off a drop to this level in his third race under Ness' tutelage he stretches out another sixteenth after faltering in the stretch last out. He doesn't seem like the stakes winning (John Bullit at Canterbury) horse he was last year, but he has the back class and the barn.

8. Later Gater 3-1 (Homeister) - Another coming in off a claim at $16,000, though this one was a win. Closed nicely in the stretch, adds a 1/16th of mile here, solid Beyers and a great jockey change. Dangerous.

9. Dawn Raider 4-1 (Centeno) - Ness' first call rider on a Minnesota owned horse that beat Fizzy last summer at Canterbury at this level. Laid off nearly as long as the Fiz, Dawn Raider has been flat in all three '09 starts at $32,000 and drops in to try this level. Came back strong after his last layoff, but this does not appear to be the same horse. If he is, though, Ness'll find a way to get it out him.

10. FIZZY POP 15-1 (Butler)

I know there are a lot of droppers in here, but we're second after a layoff, a strong second place finish and a nice 80 Beyer. While he has his work cut out for him, I think he has a real shot in here. Races aren't run on paper and prize money isn't awarded based on the Morning Line. We'll see Saturday afternoon.


G. Rarick said...

Well don't just stand there, get a bet on him! I LOVE it when the tipsters screw up. My winners last year were at 56-1 and 86-1. Since then, every railbird accosts me every time I have a runner. "Today, madame? Today??"

rather rapid said...

Good luck!